It’s funny when you try to apply football thinking to baseball. After the 7-3 Game 1 win in the American League Championship Series by the Cleveland Guardians over the Tampa Bay Rays, people were starting to make plans for the beginning of the World Series.
The Guardians may get there, but it’s not going to be easy. The Rays were the best team in the AL over the 162 game regular season and swept the Yankees in the Division Series. They are a very good baseball team. That doesn’t mean Steven Vogt’s squad cannot beat them, it simply means it will not be that easy.
What we are trying to say here is coming home with a split of the two games in St. Petersburg is a good thing, and we will go a step further by saying it is unlikely the Guardians will sweep the three games at Progressive Field.
Because the Rays are a good team.
Kevin Cash’s crew ranked 4th in the AL in runs scored at 4.54 per game, compared to the Guardians 4.19. Neither team hits a lot of home runs. The Rays ranked 11th despite having Junior Caminero, who was second in the league with 42 bombs.
Cleveland was 13th with no Guardian hitting more than Angel Martinez’ 18 dingers.
The difference was batting average (we know, it doesn’t mean anything). The Rays led the league in this category at .258, 19 points higher than the Cleveland. Of the nine players with over 300 plate appearances for Tampa Bay, only three (Cedric Mullins, Taylor Walls, and Richie Palacios) hit under .250.
Cleveland had eight players with over 300 times at the plate, and only four (Steven Kwan, Chase DeLauter, Brayan Rocchio, and Angel Martinez) hit OVER .250.
However, the Guardians were 4th in the AL in walks, while Tampa was 11th.
As we wrote the other day, the Guardians scored just eight runs in the six regular season games vs. Tampa, a total they have matched in the first two games in the ALCS. We also note all six of those games were played before the trade deadline and Cleveland lengthened their lineup a bit.
It usually comes down to the offense for Vogt’s guys, and this series is no different. Can the Guardians scrape up enough runs to win? Jose Ramirez seems more like his usual self, so the top of the Cleveland batting order is kind of formidable, with DeLauter and Kwan doing their usual thing. With the top of the order getting on, it puts pressure on Jo Adell, who is 6 for 28 in the post-season, but without a homer and with 11 strikeouts.
Let’s face it, his at bat in the 7th in Game 2 with runners on 2nd and 3rd and two out was abysmal.
On the other hand, Patrick Bailey has been amazing thus far swinging the bat in the playoffs. His homer in Game three of the White Sox series jumpstarted the offense, and he tied Game 1 with a titanic blast. Overall, he’s 7 for 20 in the post-season, which no one could have seen coming.
The truth is these are two similar and pretty evenly matched teams, especially since the additions of Nathaniel Lowe and Adell, and the emergence of DeLauter.
The next three nights at Progressive Field should be electric. It’s October baseball after all.
