It’s Down To A Three Game Series, But What Was The Bullpen Plan Yesterday?

We will go back to what we said after Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, It was never going to be easy.

Tampa Bay was the best team in the AL during the regular season. They are a good team, a very good team. Now it’s a best of three series with the Rays having the last two games in Florida.

After holding Tampa’s bats at bay in the first three games, they scored just 8 runs in that trio, Kevin Cash’s crew got their big boys going. Yandy Diaz started a rally in the third, scored their first run, and then capped the scoring with a two-run homer in the 9th.

Jonathan Aranda got the hit to deliver Diaz, and delivered another big hit, with the aid of Chase DeLauter’s error to score two more runs, part of a three-hit night for him.

And Junior Caminero broke a 1-1 tie in the 6th with a ringing double. The trio delivered six hits, Tampa had 11 and knocked in five of the seven tallies.

Steven Vogt left himself open to a lot of second guessing (not here, we thought it at the time) the way he used his pitchers after Shawn Armstrong opened the game putting up a scoreless first.

Foster Griffin pitched 3.2 innings and allowed one run but was removed with two outs and no one on in the fifth because he wanted Daniel Espino to face Yandy Diaz. Diaz fanned, but Vogt left Espino on to start the 6th with a pair of left-handed hitters due in Aranda and Chandler Simpson.

Espino walked both of them and then gave up the double to Caminero to give the visitors the lead.

Why not just leave Griffin in? He was pitching well, and if you wanted Espino for Diaz, why not bring in Tim Herrin to start the sixth?

Later, we saw Matt Festa’s playoff debut, and he got three outs, but with the score being 5-3 heading into the top of the ninth, we weren’t confident with him getting three more. He didn’t, allowing the homer to Diaz that salted the game away.

While the Rays got their big bats going, the top five hitters for Cleveland went 3 for 19 and after hits by Kwan and DeLauter in the first, the Guardians didn’t get another hit until Travis Bazzana went yard in the 7th.

Nick Martinez pitched 13 scoreless innings against the Guardians in the regular season, and he baffled them again, allowing just the one run in 5.1 frames.

So, we would guess the Rays will use game one starter Drew Rasmussen tonight and he was very good in both the regular season and his two playoff starts. Again, it won’t be an easy task.

Remember, after the 7 runs scored in the first game, the Guardians have managed just 7 runs themselves in the last three contests. They will need to figure out a way to put some offense together along with the pitching doing better.

We will guess Vogt will go with Parker Messick tonight and some good news for the relief corps is with the rainout on Friday, Cade Smith, Erik Sabrowski, and Hunter Gaddis all have had two straight days off. That would seem to shorten the game considerably.

But we will also point out we are still worried about Messick, who hasn’t been as sharp in his last few starts, probably due to fatigue.

Have to lost confidence? No, but again, Cash has good pitchers at his disposal too. And the Guardians don’t want to have to win two more elimination games on the road again.

Sit Back And Enjoy The ALCS. It’s Supposed To Be Highly Competitive

It’s funny when you try to apply football thinking to baseball. After the 7-3 Game 1 win in the American League Championship Series by the Cleveland Guardians over the Tampa Bay Rays, people were starting to make plans for the beginning of the World Series.

The Guardians may get there, but it’s not going to be easy. The Rays were the best team in the AL over the 162 game regular season and swept the Yankees in the Division Series. They are a very good baseball team. That doesn’t mean Steven Vogt’s squad cannot beat them, it simply means it will not be that easy.

What we are trying to say here is coming home with a split of the two games in St. Petersburg is a good thing, and we will go a step further by saying it is unlikely the Guardians will sweep the three games at Progressive Field.

Because the Rays are a good team.

Kevin Cash’s crew ranked 4th in the AL in runs scored at 4.54 per game, compared to the Guardians 4.19. Neither team hits a lot of home runs. The Rays ranked 11th despite having Junior Caminero, who was second in the league with 42 bombs.

Cleveland was 13th with no Guardian hitting more than Angel Martinez’ 18 dingers.

The difference was batting average (we know, it doesn’t mean anything). The Rays led the league in this category at .258, 19 points higher than the Cleveland. Of the nine players with over 300 plate appearances for Tampa Bay, only three (Cedric Mullins, Taylor Walls, and Richie Palacios) hit under .250.

Cleveland had eight players with over 300 times at the plate, and only four (Steven Kwan, Chase DeLauter, Brayan Rocchio, and Angel Martinez) hit OVER .250.

However, the Guardians were 4th in the AL in walks, while Tampa was 11th.

As we wrote the other day, the Guardians scored just eight runs in the six regular season games vs. Tampa, a total they have matched in the first two games in the ALCS. We also note all six of those games were played before the trade deadline and Cleveland lengthened their lineup a bit.

It usually comes down to the offense for Vogt’s guys, and this series is no different. Can the Guardians scrape up enough runs to win? Jose Ramirez seems more like his usual self, so the top of the Cleveland batting order is kind of formidable, with DeLauter and Kwan doing their usual thing. With the top of the order getting on, it puts pressure on Jo Adell, who is 6 for 28 in the post-season, but without a homer and with 11 strikeouts.

Let’s face it, his at bat in the 7th in Game 2 with runners on 2nd and 3rd and two out was abysmal.

On the other hand, Patrick Bailey has been amazing thus far swinging the bat in the playoffs. His homer in Game three of the White Sox series jumpstarted the offense, and he tied Game 1 with a titanic blast. Overall, he’s 7 for 20 in the post-season, which no one could have seen coming.

The truth is these are two similar and pretty evenly matched teams, especially since the additions of Nathaniel Lowe and Adell, and the emergence of DeLauter.

The next three nights at Progressive Field should be electric. It’s October baseball after all.

Francona’s Post-Season Experience Is Huge For Tribe

Is it possible for a manager to be named the MVP of the American League Championship Series?

There is no question Terry Francona has pushed the right button pretty much the entire month of October, and it was never more evident than last night when the Indians took a commanding 3-0 lead in the series with their bullpen pitching 8-1/3 innings.

As a result, the Tribe can clinch their sixth American League this evening in Toronto with a victory.

The Cleveland skipper is also a visionary in how to use your bullpen and your best relief pitcher the way he has utilized Andrew Miller throughout the playoffs.

We’ve seen the Dodgers’ Dave Roberts and the Cubs’ Joe Maddon try similar things with their closers in the past two weeks, though without the same success as the Francona/Miller combination.

Of course, Francona is able to do this because of the deep Tribe bullpen. It’s easy to use Miller in this way when you can bring in someone the quality of Cody Allen to pitch the ninth inning.

Imagine if Tito needed Miller to get the final three outs.

It would be a whole different situation.

Because Francona has managed two World Series winners, and been part of so many post-seasons over the years, he has a wealth of situations he can call on in handling things.

When the Yankees had their dominant run from 1996-2001, Joe Torre realized the importance of every playoff game. At the time, that made him different than most managers who continued to pilot each contest like it was one out of 162.

Torre would use Mariano Rivera to get one or two extra outs per night, and would ask the same of set up men like Jeff Nelson and Mike Stanton.

Sound familiar?

Tito is doing the same thing. Maybe he’s doing it because Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar can’t start games. But Josh Tomlin is giving him five good frames to date, and that’s all the skipper needs.

He knows his best pitchers are in the bullpen and Miller has morphed into the post-season’s best bullpen weapon since Rivera.

Watching him gives Indians’ fans the same feeling Yankee fans must have had knowing when Rivera, the best closer ever, entered the game, it was basically over.

And even though the relievers had to throw 8-1/3 innings last night, Francona still has Mike Clevinger and Cody Anderson tonight if he needs length, and none of the pitchers used last night threw enough pitches to make them not be able to used in Game 4.

That said, we still wouldn’t use Corey Kluber on short rest today with a 3-0 lead, but we understand Tito wants him available in case he’s needed in a seventh game, should the series get that far.

We would use Ryan Merritt today, and then have a fully rested Kluber to go in Game 5.

Should Kluber lose today, the Blue Jays have to be salivating with a chance to go against a rookie tomorrow, and coming back to Cleveland down 3-2.

However, every button Francona has pushed this month has turned up a winner. If we were going to Las Vegas this weekend, we would want to rub his head before we left.

No wonder the played believe in Terry Francona, he has put them in the right position in these two series and has them one game away from the American League Pennant.

Tribe & Jays Pretty Even Matchup

The American League Championship Series, which starts Friday night at Progressive Field figures to be pretty evenly matched.

The Blue Jays led the AL in ERA with the Indians ranking 2nd. In runs scored, Cleveland was 2nd while Toronto was 5th.

And while Canada’s team did not hit for a high average, they led the league in walks, so they ranked 3rd in on base percentage, just ahead of the Tribe.

With Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar missing, the Jays seem to have the edge in the starting rotation, but the Indians look to have the superior bullpen coming into the series.

Based on run differential, both teams should have won 91 games this season. That’s how even these two teams appear to be.

The Indians won the season series, four games to three, but keep in mind the first series in Toronto was skewed by the 19 inning victory which extended the Tribe’s winning streak to a club record 14 games.

Carrasco won the series opener with a 14 strikeout performance, and we all remember Trevor Bauer’s five scoreless innings on short rest in the aforementioned extra inning affair.

Terry Francona used Zack McAllister, who was struggling big time, to start the third game against Blue Jays’ game one starter Marco Estrada, and Cleveland led before the bullpen faltered late.

Corey Kluber had a rare horrible outing in the last game and Toronto dominated.

Keep in mind, the Indians did not see Jose Bautista all season. He was hurt both times the two teams met.

The Blue Jays big bats (Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Bautista, and Troy Tulowitzki) all function much better at Rogers Centre, with the exception of Bautista.

Russell Martin and former Indian, Ezequiel Carrera are two hitters who benefit greatly from playing at home, where the ball seems to take off. Martin’s OPS is almost 100 points higher at home, while Carrera’s is over 200 points higher.

The series in Cleveland was highlighted by late inning home runs for the Tribe. They tied and won the Friday night game on dingers by Jose Ramirez and the inside the park walk off job by Tyler Naquin, while the finale was decided by a two run shot by Ramirez in the bottom of the eighth.

So, based on the regular season, the two teams are pretty evenly matched. Is there anything the Tribe can take advantage of in the LCS?

The Blue Jays’ hitters strike out a lot. They rank 4th in the AL in this category. Besides the Carrasco game mentioned earlier, Bauer also had a start where he fanned more than 10 Toronto hitters.

So, the Indians’ pitchers need to get ahead in the count and expand the strike zone. Toronto hitter will chase pitches out of the zone when behind in the count.

The Tribe hurlers must get the Justin Smoaks, Kevin Pillars, Melvin Uptons of the team out, so if the big boppers do something the damage will be minimized.

Also, the Jays don’t do a good job controlling the running game, and the Indians lead the AL in stolen bases. It would not be a surprise to see Rajai Davis, Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, and Jason Kipnis trying to steal every time they get on base.

The Tribe has been aggressive on the basepaths all year, and now is not the time to change that.

Can the Indians win their sixth pennant in club history? Of course. But, as usual, it will not be easy. It is funny that this is the first time Cleveland has had the home field advantage in the five ALCS they have been involved with.

It would help the cause if Francona continued his hot streak in the manager’s chair.