Analytics. It certainly has been a buzz word in sports for a while now, but it seems to be in the news again after Cavs’ coach Kenny Atkinson made his comment after game three of the Eastern Conference Finals when he said if you look at shot quality, his team should be up two games to one.
That may stick with Atkinson for a long time and frankly why he said it is a mystery to us.
Look, this isn’t a piece to poop on analytics. Keeping track of certain things is very valuable and for a franchise to ignore the number would be foolish. However, in Atkinson’s case, the better way to evaluate those games were our eyes, and that metric tells us the Cavaliers got their butts kicked by the New York Knicks.
You have to use both to have success, which makes sense to us, but there are people and organizations that are slaves to the numbers.
Heck, we heard a former player on the Guardians’ telecast say that batting average kind of measures how lucky a hitter is. We guess players like George Brett and Wade Boggs just had a lot of good fortune. Every year.
We heard a perfect example of how analytics should be used pertaining to the Cleveland Guardians. The exit velocity shows Jose Ramirez is hitting the ball as hard as ever despite his numbers not being up to his normal statistics.
Since Ramirez has put up excellent numbers for a long period of time, seeing he is still hitting bullets should allay any fear that he is starting to decline at 33 years old. Conversely, last year people kept pointing out Nolan Jones’ exit velocity as justification that he should play despite a .211 batting average (yeah, we know) and a 600 OPS.
What’s the difference? Outside of Jones’ first year with Colorado, there is no evidence he is a good major league hitter. HIs OPS in the other three seasons are under 700. Past performance indicates that Ramirez should be just fine.
Jones’ history indicates his exit velocity doesn’t indicate any success at the big-league level.
In basketball, we keep seeing people assessing a player’s effectiveness by using +/-, which measures the scoring in the game at the time a player was on the floor. Again, with all of these numbers there is some use, but it should not be the sole judge of a player’s worth.
The darling of this statistic for Cavs’ influencers is Dean Wade. Wade is a very good defensive player, especially on the perimeter. He most definitely has a place in the NBA. However, Wade chooses to be a non-participant on the offensive end. When we were younger, we said players like him had an allergy to the ball, because they get rid of it so fast once they get it.
Apparently, Wade had the highest plus/minus of any Cleveland player in the post-season. Sorry, if you think that makes him super valuable, we wholeheartedly disagree.
In our coaching days, we used to tell players the last thing we looked at to determine who had a good game was the scoresheet. By watching the game, we knew who impacted the game positively. That hasn’t changed.
Numbers and statistics can tell part of the story, but there are things missed by analyzing them.