The regular season starts today for most Major League Baseball teams, including the Cleveland Guardians. What will the season hold for Steven Vogt’s crew this season? Here are our thoughts:
Why they can win. Much has been discussed about the so-called “Cleveland pitching factory” and frankly it is merited. Since 2020, the Guardians have finished in the top half of the American League in ERA in all but one year (2021), and have been in the top three thrice, including the last two seasons.
The 20-7 stretch to end the season last year was in part possible because the Guardians held their opponents to under three runs per contest. They can pitch.
Gavin Williams takes the next step towards being an ace. Slade Cecconi allowed less hits than innings pitched and showed some old school traits, like pitching to weak contact. And Tanner Bibee rebounds from a bit of a tough year and pitches more like he did in his first two seasons.
The bullpen continues to be the backbone of the staff, led by fireballer Cade Smith, and bolstered by new acquisition Shawn Armstrong, while one of the new relievers, Peyton Pallette, Colin Holderman, or Connor Brogdon steps up and becomes another guy Vogt can rely on.
Offensively, Chase DeLauter is what we hoped he’d be, another solid bat in the middle of the lineup. Steven Kwan rebounds from an off year for him. Bo Naylor hits like he did in September when he hit .290 with an OPS of 872.
And of course, Jose Ramirez has another MVP type season.
And two of these players, Gabriel Arias, Brayan Rocchio and Angel Martinez continue to progress like the front offce thinks they will.
The result is a third consecutive AL Central Division title.
Why they won’t. In the wild card era, you have to score runs to make the post-season. While there are exceptions, teams that score the most runs get to play in October. Since 2000, here is where Cleveland has ranked in runs scored in the AL: 13th, 9th, 6th, 12th, 7th, and last year 15th (last).
This year, their luck runs out. Essentially adding two hitters (DeLauter and Rhys Hoskins) to the worst run scoring team in the league doesn’t make a big difference. The team still ranks in the bottom half of the league in scoring
Vogt continues to get subpar offense out of his keystone combination, leading to rushing Travis Bazzana and Naylor is the hitter he has been throughout his career, an OPS of 670.
The starting rotation springs a leak or two due to minor injuries and the rotation depth in Columbus isn’t ready to pick up the slack. And the new additions to the bullpen show why they were available for the Guardians this winter.
What do we think will happen? Unfortunately, we believe the lack of offense finally catches up to the Guardians in 2026 and they will hover around the .500 mark and finish third in the Central Division behind the Tigers and Royals.
Continuing to depend on hitters like Arias, Schneemann, and younger hitters who don’t have a great minor league resume is an issue. We do think DeLauter will be an effective hitter and signing Hoskins helps too, but a good offense needs seven solid bats, and the Guards aren’t there.
We also are concerned about the starting pitching depth. We wish they would have signed an extra arm like Zack Littell or Lucas Giolito to start the year and soak up some innings. Not sure having to have Doug Nikhazy make around ten starts in the big leagues is something to look forward to.
We are sure the influencers won’t be happy, and we would love to be completely wrong and be celebrating October baseball later this year. But we see too many holes right now.