Bullpen Hiccups Causing Guardians Concern

With the All-Star break starting tomorrow, hopefully the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians can get plenty of rest because they seem to be running on fumes as of late and that gives Steven Vogt less options he can depend on.

First, two of our rules for relievers are don’t walk people and don’t give up home runs. In other words, make hitters earn their way on base, and in addition, make them score runs by bunching hits together, particularly tough in today’s game.

Right now, Vogt has three relievers who challenge the first of those rules–

Shawn Armstrong: 28.2 IP, 16 BB
Erik Sabrowski: 27.1 IP, 20 BB
Tim Herrin: 32.1 IP, 19 BB

The lowest point of the relief corps’ season came Wednesday night in Minnesota, when Armstrong entered the game with a 5-3 lead and walked two batters. He was relieved by Sabrowski, who walked the three batters he faced before Hunter Gaddis rescued him.

Minnesota tied the game without swinging the bat. The quintet of free passes allowed them to tie the game.

Right now, Vogt probably trusts three pitches when the Guardians have the lead. Obviously, one is All-Star Cade Smith, who leads the AL is saves with 28 and has fanned 61 hitters in 43.1 innings. He’s also allowed just three long balls, two of them coming in one game.

Hunter Gaddis started the year on the injured list and then struggled a bit when he joined the team, but has been solid for the most part. Since May 1st, he has a 1.85 ERA with 21 Ks in 24.1 frames, allowing just one HR in that span.

The third pitcher is the surprise, Colin Holderman, signed as a free agent over the winter. We always like Holderman when he was in Pittsburgh, where he had two solid years in 2023 and 2024 and struck out over a hitter per inning.

But last season, he had a 7.01 ERA with the Pirates and his walk numbers went up and the strikeouts went down.

He started with year with the big-league club but was sent back to AAA after allowing two runs in his first two games. Since returning in late April, he’s posted a 1.43 ERA with 36 punchouts in 32.1 innings and hasn’t allowed a round tripper.

Herrin is currently on the IL after taking a line drive off the elbow and Sabrowski had elbow problems earlier and they are the only lefties at Vogt’s disposal. And both have a tendency to put people on base. The latter was very good early on, but since his elbow started giving him a problem, it’s been dicey bringing him into games.

Matt Festa has a rubber arm and Vogt likes him, but the problem is he doesn’t have dominant stuff, allowing six dingers in 38 innings. As noted, Armstrong has problems locating the strike zone.

Maybe the answer is Franco Aleman, a rookie, but the manager doesn’t trust him yet. He’s pitched in four games since his recall but hasn’t been put into any high leverage situations until yesterday when he pitched the 8th in a 4-1 Guardians’ win.

Vogt needs more options he can trust as the season goes on or he risks exhausting his three best options and perhaps watching them falter in late August and September. So, either a pitcher like Armstrong has to rediscover throwing strikes or the lefties start pitching better or the front office is going to have to find more options.

And if the Guardians get to the post-season, no doubt a good relief corps is a must.

Poor Hitting With Runners In Scoring Position? Most Likely Because Poor Hitters Coming Up

It is no secret the Cleveland Guardians are struggling in regard to hitting with runners in scoring position. Currently, Cleveland ranks third last in the majors, ahead of only Seattle and Cincinnati, with a .227 batting average.

They are 20th in the big leagues in opportunities, and rank 14th in terms of striking out in these situations.

People keep looking for reasons as to why this is happening, but really, it’s simple. The Guardians simply don’t have enough good hitters.

We understand this seems obvious, but applying logic, we will show you what the problem is. It’s not a matter of hitters not having the “clutch gene” or in a lot of cases putting too much pressure on themselves.

First, the Guardians have no one getting on base at a .350 or better clip. Their leaders are Austin Hedges at .348 (if you can believe that), Chase DeLauter (.346), and Brayan Rocchio at .343. Let’s say for the sake of argument, that all three of these players get on base to start an inning.

Who comes up next?

The argument for a good offense is getting players who get on base (high on base percentage) and then players who can drive them in (high slugging percentage). So who leads the Guardians in slugging right now?

Two of the top three for Cleveland are currently on the injured list, including the team leader, Angel Martinez at .442. He is followed by DeLauter at .428 and Jose Ramirez, also out of the lineup right now at .418. Keep in mind, most people feel a slugging average of .450 is very good, and the Guardians have no one in that category.

So, of the three guys who have shown they can drive the ball, the only one who is playing right now is DeLauter, who is also one of the three guys who can get on base. And here is the dilemma for Steven Vogt and the powers that be who make out the lineup each day.

Getting back to the scenario where DeLauter and Rocchio get on base, here are the likely hitters to follow: Kyle Manzardo, who hasn’t had a good year with a 682 OPS. Rhys Hoskins, hitting .181 on the season with a 692 OPS. The third base platoon of Daniel Schneemann (611 OPS) or Gabriel Arias (646 OPS but striking out in 41% of his plate appearances.

And FYI, the 646 OPS is nothing to write home about either.

Then you might have Patrick Bailey, hitting .209 with a 564 OPS and then Steven Kwan, suffering through a terrible season with a 607 OPS.

The other problem is the strikeouts. When you don’t get hits in scoring position, sometimes you can have a productive out, moving a runner, hitting a sacrifice fly. Cleveland has 21 sac flies, ranking 21st in the sport.

Right now, four Guardians hitters (Arias, Manzardo, Hoskins, and Kahlil Watson) strikeout in more than 30% of their at bats. In Tuesday’s game against the Twins, DeLauter has a leadoff double, and Manzardo did move him to third with a grounder to the right side. Fundamental baseball.

But Hoskins struck out, and when Rocchio grounded out, DeLauter was left standing on third.

It certainly is a challenge for Vogt to figure out how to scratch out runs with a lineup where there are only two or three decent hitters. The poor average with runners in scoring position to due a lot to having nothing but mediocre bats coming up when runners do happen to reach safely.

Why Platoon When It Clearly Isn’t Working?

The Cleveland Guardians like platooning. They did it under Terry Francona and it has continued under Steven Vogt. Most years, the Guards lead all of baseball in having the platoon advantage (left-handed hitter vs. right-handed pitcher and vice versa) for hitters.

This year, they also seem to be emphasizing the reverse platoon, which is a left-handed hitter who has more success vs. left-handed pitching, but that’s a discussion for another day.

Our question here is despite using the platoon advantage as much as they do, Cleveland ranks near the bottom in runs scored over the past year and a half. So, why do they continue to do it.

In 2013, Francona used Ryan Raburn vs. lefties and he delivered, hitting .308 against southpaws with a 1020 OPS. More famously, for the 2016 American League champions, he used Lonnie Chisenhall and Brandon Guyer in rightfield.

Chisenhall batted .294 with a 784 OPS vs. righties, while Guyer blistered left-handers at a .336 clip, compiling a 1021 OPS. That’s an effective platoon. Both players have to be productive when they get opportunities.

As for this season, that’s simply not the case. Some of the numbers for the players Vogt is platooning are downright ugly. For example, the Guardians signed Rhys Hoskins in spring training to help against right-handers, as the roster is pretty left-handed hitting dominant.

The problem is Hoskins is 10 for 68 (.147) vs. LHP and has just three home runs. His OPS is 619 because he’s drawn 15 walks. Another right-handed bat counted on by the organization, David Fry, is hitting .171 (12 for 70) with two homers, although again, he’s taken 16 bases on balls.

Gabriel Arias, long thought of as a source of power from the right side is 3 for 20. Stuart Fairchild signed in the off-season because he hit lefties was 2 for 15 with eight strikeouts in his brief time in Cleveland.

Meanwhile, Kyle Manzardo, often benched with a southpaw is starting or pinch-hit for if a left enters a game is 12 for 45 with a homer and seven walks against them. However, he is hitting .222 with nine homers against right-handers.

We get the organization wants to play Travis Bazzana every day, but he is dreadful vs. southpaws, batting just .153 (11 for 72). We wouldn’t bench the former first overall pick against them because he needs exposure to them, but he probably shouldn’t be hitting leadoff against them.

And if you want to give Steven Kwan a break at times, it should be when a lefty starts because he’s just 13 for 83 against them (.157) with a terrible 469 OPS.

Another issue is no one is really doing well against right-handers, who throw the majority of pitches.

Bazzana has the highest OPS vs. RHP at 902, batting .295 and a .379 on base percentage. The next best is Fry, who doesn’t get many opportunities because he only seemingly plays vs. lefties. He’s 12 for 44 with two homers and eight walks, so we ask the same question we asked after Ramirez went down, why isn’t he in the mix at third base?

Kahlil Watson and Brayan Rocchio, who has been solid all year, are next.

The major point is the organization seems married to the platoon advantage. The problem is that it’s not working. We know the Guardians can be stubborn, but it might be time to rethink the strategy.

Looking At The Guardians, Halfway Through.

The Cleveland Guardians reached the halfway point of their season prior to the weekend series against Seattle with a record of 42-39, respectable considering only four teams in the American League are over the break-even mark.

They’ve done this despite a month-long hitting slump, as they have tread water during this period where they have not been able to score runs, going 10-13 in June to date. Steven Vogt’s crew will likely be without their best player, Jose Ramirez, for another month (hopefully less), so can they sustain their place in the standings without him?

After a decent start offensively to the season, the offense has returned to the bottom of the AL, and remember, for the most part, teams that score runs in the regular season make the post-season. They rank last in OPS, last in slugging, and 14th (second last) in on base percentage. And we’ve documented in past posts, that the “slump” started in the middle of May, not when Ramirez, Angel Martinez, and Chase DeLauter went down with injuries in the same game.

Once again, the outfield has been a problem. While first base is the lowest position ranking according to WAR in the AL, the next two spots belong to leftfield and centerfield. Part of this is the poor year Steven Kwan is having. The two-time all-star is arguably the worst hitter in the league this season, with an OPS under 600 (575), a batting average of .210 and a slugging average less than his on base percentage (.319 OBP and .256 slugging).

How have the Guardians remained above the .500 mark? As usual, the answer is pitching. Cleveland has still only used five starters this season, remarkable in today’s game. They rank 4th in the AL in ERA, and they have the league leader in saves in Cade Smith, who has 26.

Parker Messick has emerged as a potential all-star, with a 2.67 ERA and 101 strikeouts in 94.1 innings. One thing to watch with him is his innings. The most he’s thrown in any season is 133, so no doubt the front office will try to control that in the second half.

And while Gavin Williams hasn’t had a good June, he’s been picked up by Tanner Bibee, who has been outstanding in his four starts, putting up a 1.71 ERA.

The bullpen has to develop some depth though. Hunter Gaddis looks like he is back after a slow start with an IL stint to start the year. Colin Holderman has been a find, with a 1.55 ERA in 28 games, allowing just one homer and 13 hits in 29 frames.

Erik Sabrowski missed some time with elbow inflammation, and he’s been fine too with 42 Ks in 22.1 innings. But the rest of the ‘pen has had issues.

Matt Festa, everyone’s favorite, has allowed six long balls in 34 innings. Shawn Armstrong, the Guardians’ main free agent, has given up three dingers and walked 12 in 23.2 frames. And Tim Herrin, the other southpaw wias Sabrowski, has struggled to throw strikes, walking 19 in 28.2 innings.

Daniel Espino might be an option down the road, but right now he’s showing he’s not ready to pitch in the big leagues. Which leaves the question as to why Franco Aleman, with an 0.33 ERA at AAA isn’t with the big club.

However, to win a third straight Central Division title, and with the AL West struggled, a bye into the Division Series, the Guardians are going to need to put more runs on the board. They have had a bottom of the league offense now for a season and a half.

Getting DeLauter back help, but hopefully the front office can get a solid bat at the trade deadline. It would certainly save the fingernails of Guardians’ fans everywhere.

It’s Tough To Watch, But Numbers On Guardians’ Offense Are Uglier

On May 18th, the Cleveland Guardians defeated the Tigers 8-2 to raise their record to 27-22 and following the game their team OPS was 708.

After Tuesday night’s 2-1 loss to the White Sox, the Guards fourth defeat by that score in June alone, the team OPS sits at 681. Cleveland’s on base percentage has dropped 15 points in that time span and the slugging percentage has dipped 12 points.

The team batting average has dipped five points. They’ve scored more than four runs in a game just six times. It’s really amazing that Cleveland has gone 15-17 in that span.

Note the date though. The injuries to Jose Ramirez, Angel Martinez, and Chase DeLauter occurred on June 13th, the offense was struggling for three weeks before that trio went down.

What has happened? After the first two series of the season, when the Guardians fanned 10 or more times in four games, they did so just five times until a game two days later after the aforementioned victory over the Tigers.

Since that May 18th contest, a span of 32 games, Cleveland hitters struck out 10+ times in 15 games, including seven of the last nine. It’s difficult to get hits when you don’t put the ball in play.

In that win over Detroit, Guardians batters walked seven times, the 18th time in the first 49 games they drew five or more bases on balls in a game. In the last 31 games? That’s happened just five times, and in those games, the Guardians scored at least four runs in four of them.

Granted, Ramirez and DeLauter are two of the most patient hitters Cleveland has, ranking 1st and 4th in drawing free passes on the team, but Martinez rarely walks, so there’s that.

Look at some of the strikeout to walk ratios of some of the players who have been forced into service since June 13th when the injuries occurred–

Gabriel Arias 25 K/2 BB
Petey Halpin 15 K/1 BB
Kahlil Watson 9 K/1 BB

And we haven’t even mentioned the weird stat line of Stuart Fairchild, who has 27 plate appearances and has fanned in over half of them (14) but also has drawn seven walks. Add in three hits, and somehow, he has a .407 on base percentage and a 565 OPS.

That’s unique.

It’s not just the new guys who are struggling either. Daniel Schneemann is hitting .133 during this period with a woeful 408 OPS. David Fry, who we thought should be in the lineup more now with the injuries, is 5 for 33 (.167) with a 639 OPS, and is in the midst of a 1 for 23 skid.

Over the last 30 days, Guardians’ hitters rank 4th in all of baseball in striking out. The three teams with more are Cincinnati, the Angels, and the Orioles. Those teams have all hit at least 28 home runs as a team. The Guardians have 19, the lowest during that span in MLB.

Two AL Central teams, the Twins and Tigers have each more than doubled Cleveland’s homer total over the last month. That’s not good either.

Solutions? Get back to being more patient? Swap some players with Columbus? It does speak to developing hitters, something the organization has struggled with for a while now.

But they have to figure it out soon or they will be in a big hole when Ramirez does get back.

Guardians Simply Don’t Have Enough Good Hitters.

To say the Cleveland Guardians have a problem scoring runs these days is an understatement. As we all know, two of their best hitters, the great Jose Ramirez and rookie Chase DeLauter are currently on the injured list along with their leading home run hitter in Angel Martinez.

Along with that, you have Rhys Hoskins, who in June has gone 7 for 52 (.135 BA, 514 OPS), Daniel Schneemann at 7 for 47 (.149, 437 OPS), and David Fry, who we believe should get more of a shot with the injuries, but it is hard to justify because he’s gone 2 for 24 since May ended.

The replacements for the injured players have done nothing either. Gabriel Arias, the king of toolsy players which the organization can’t see their way to part from, is 4 for 22 since his return from the injured list, whiffing 13 times without drawing a walk (of course), including a platinum sombrero last night.

We posted on social media that we would love to ask someone in the front office what they see in Arias, who now has over 1000 plate appearances in the big leagues with an OPS very much below average at 630. He’s simply not a good hitter.

The other players Steven Vogt has used haven’t done anything either. The Guards have given 26 plate appearances to Stuart Fairchild, who has a career OPS of 690 and hasn’t had a decent season (710 OPS) since 2023 with Cincinnati. The results? He’s fanned 13 times, walked seven and mixed in just three hits.

Kahlil Watson, who was putting up good numbers at AAA, but has always had a questionable strikeout to walk ratio, got his first big league hit last night, but has fanned in eight of those times at the dish.

Petey Halpin, whose minor league career shows a 721 OPS, kind of underwhelming, but the front office was impressed, has started nine games, with six hits and a walk to show for his 38 plate appearances. That’s as a starter. Coming off the bench, he’s gone 1 for 9, so overall he’s 7 for 45 (.156) and a 434 OPS.

Other than Travis Bazzana (837 OPS) and Kyle Manzardo (978), and Brayabn Rocchio, who has been solid all year, but has slumped in the last couple of weeks, there aren’t a lot of players Vogt can write in the lineup that can be counted on to produce as of late.

But the front office seems to not want to try something else.

What we are saying is players like Arias, Fairchild, and Halpin should be expected to contribute much at the plate because their history shows they aren’t good hitters. It’s that simple.

Meanwhile, there is Cooper Ingle at Columbus with a 987 OPS, and a .422 on base average, and a strikeout to walk ratio that should indicate more success at the big-league level, 39 walks to 48 Ks. For example, Bazzana had a 25 K/21 BB ratio when he was called up.

Heck, George Valera, who was DFA’d to activate Arias, has a 26:20 ratio, and we understand no one claimed him, but he put up more quality at bats than either Watson or Halpin have so far.

We recognize Fairchild has a good ratio too, but he’s demonstrated during his time in the bigs that he’s not a good hitter. It means it doesn’t always translate, but being able to tell the difference between a ball and a strike helps hitters greatly.

By the way, we’d even like to see Juan Brito get a second shot. After all, he had only 56 plate appearances.

It’s hard to imagine this team getting to four or five runs consistently with four to six mediocre hitters in the lineup on any given day. The need to try something else.

And soon.

Guardians Need To Be Creative To Get Runs Across The Plate

About a month ago, we wrote about how the Cleveland Guardians’ offense was looking promising. They improved their on base percentage and their at bats looked better. However, that hasn’t led to much success.

In the 12 games played thus far in June, Steven Vogt’s squad has scored more than four runs in a game just four times. In fact, we can stretch that number to 23 games, dating back to May 19th, where the Guardians have failed to score more than four.

Yikes!

The on base percentage has dropped to 11th in the AL, up from dead last a year ago, but they have plummeted to 14th (second last) in runs scored in the Junior Circuit.

And worse yet, Jose Ramirez is likely out for 5-7 weeks, and Angel Martinez is on the 10-day IL. They are the team’s home run leaders, and rookie Chase DeLauter, tied for third in homers (with Kyle Manzardo) and the club leader in RBIs, has a fracture in his ribs, and he might join Ramirez and Martinez on the IL.

So, what can the Guardians do to generate enough runs to stay in the playoff race? First, we would stress continuing to be patient at the plate. We understand that human nature makes athletes want to be the guy to get the big hit, hit a home run. It happens all the time in extra-inning games.

Being patient is better and as we stress all the time, what is a hitter doing when they walk? They aren’t making an out.

They also need to be more aggressive on the bases. Cleveland is currently second in the AL in stolen bases with 69, but 24 of those are from Ramirez, who is second in the league with 24.

Brayan Rocchio is also in the top ten, ranking ninth with 12, and we know Travis Bazzana, Steven Kwan, and when they are in the lineup, Petey Halpin and Stuart Fairchild can run too.

We understand where the game is at from a strategic standpoint, but it might be time to play some “old school” baseball as well. Bunting and starting runners to open up holes on the infield might work.

But they have to execute. Scoring runs with outs isn’t optimal, but they still count.

However, in reality, they need Steven Kwan is start hitting like the player he has been since he came to the big leagues. They need David Fry, to provide some pop in the lineup. He would seem to be a player who should get more at bats with the players who are down.

And Manzardo needs to keep going he has over the past month, and Rhys Hoskins has to be the 20 HR he has been in his career.

Amazingly, in those 23 games since May 19th, the Guardians have gone 11-12 despite a rather anemic offense. But you have to think playing .500 ball is not sustainable for the long haul.

If there was ever a time for someone to get hot, this is the perfect time to do it.

Guardians Have A New Large Obstacle

Obviously, a contending baseball team losing its best player for an extended period of time isn’t a good thing. On the other hand, professional athletes and managers do not think like fans do, so no doubt the Cleveland Guardians’ players aren’t going to just quit because Jose Ramirez will miss approximately the next two months with a broken hamate bone.

Ramirez is the heart and soul of the Guards, the way he plays rubs off on the entire team. Look at how players like Brayan Rocchio and Angel Martinez emulate him.

If there is a silver lining, it’s that Ramirez wasn’t carrying the Cleveland offense this season. Yes, he leads the team in doubles with 18 and no one in the American League has stolen more bases, but Martinez has more home runs, 11 to Ramirez’ 10 and Chase DeLauter has more RBIs with 34.

He does lead the Guardians in OPS at 757, but is just barely ahead of Rocchio, who sits at 752.

However, Cleveland is now third last in the AL in scoring runs, ahead of just Kansas City and Texas, so losing a key offensive piece is not a good thing.

We guarantee you the people who aren’t hanging their heads and saying “woe is us” are Steven Vogt, Austin Hedges, and the rest of the players in that clubhouse. We will bet their mantra will be to keep winning so when Ramirez is back, they are in position to win their third straight AL Central title.

Besides a Ramirez hot streak, what the Guardians may miss the most is his baserunning. As we noted before, he leads the league in stolen bases and his ability to take the extra base is beyond compare.

He also leads the team in walks with 41 and the player who may get the bulk of the playing time in his place, Gabriel Arias, almost never takes a free pass. You are going from a player with a career on base percentage of .352 to one with a .273 mark. That’s a lot of outs.

To make up for his absence, the Guardians will need Steven Kwan to find his stroke and get back to the player who can get on base 35% of the time. They will need Martinez to stop swinging at everything that comes out of the pitcher’s hand and be more patient.

And they will need DeLauter and Bazzana to shake themselves out of their recent slumps and start getting some extra base hits.

In short, it will take a team effort. The Guardians pride themselves on their culture, how everyone pulls for one another. That attitude will be on full display with Ramirez out of the lineup.

Most of all, they will continue to need great pitching. Tanner Bibee has put together two straight very good starts. Gavin Williams is pitching like an ace, and Slade Cecconi has been much better as of late.

No one can replace Ramirez, but if everyone can do just a little more, Vogt will get this group to tread water until Ramirez is back for the stretch drive.

That won’t be easy though.

Is Depth Becoming An Issue For Guardians?

The Major League Baseball season ebbs and flows as the marathon progresses. The Cleveland Guardians were riding high after a trip to Detroit and Philadelphia where they won six or seven. They had a 4.5 game lead in the AL Central Division.

Since then, Steven Vogt’s club has dropped 10 of 15 and have fallen out of first place for the first time since the end of April. It’s still way early, but the larger the advantage, the better. Injuries have hurt the team and since the Guards depend so much on rookies, players in their premier season in the big leagues tend to be inconsistent.

Of course, one of the things we wanted the front office to do in the off-season was to build some depth, but they didn’t and some weaknesses are starting to show.

One area we would have liked to see an addition is in the starting rotation. The Guardians have only used five starters all season, the only team in the big to do so. But recently, Joey Cantillo has not pitched well. In his last three starts, he went two innings (throwing 69 pitches), four innings, and five frames, and in the latter, he only went that far was because Vogt was saving his bullpen.

In those 11 innings, he’s allowed 15 earned runs, walking nine hitters in that span. Not only does it make it very difficult to win games that way, it also puts a lot of stress on the bullpen.

However, the only alternative the Guardians have is lefty Logan Allen who had a 4.25 ERA last season but struggled to throw strikes at times. And Cantillo does not have any options remaining, so the best the organization can do is move him to the bullpen temporarily.

Speaking of the bullpen, the elbow injury to Erik Sabrowski is also an issue. Sabrowski has been excellent, striking out 39 hitters in 21 innings and pitching to a 1.71 ERA. His absence puts Tim Herrin in that role, and he has problems throwing strikes (15 walks in 24 innings).

Will Dion is the other southpaw in the bullpen, and he is used more often than not by the skipper in a mop up role.

Offensively, as we said rookies can tend to be streaky, particularly early in their careers. Chase DeLauter is hitting just .208 over the last 28 days and has just two extra base hits, with only two walks in the last two weeks. DeLauter doesn’t have a lot of games where he doesn’t contribute to the offense though and we expect him to get hot again soon.

Travis Bazzana is also in a funk, going 9 for 49 in the last two weeks and drawing just three walks. He has seven extra base hits during that time,so again, we think he will start hitting again soon.

Thank goodness for Kyle Manzardo and Brayan Rocchio who have got hot, and for all of the talk of Jose Ramirez struggling, he has an 874 OPS over the last month and 878 OPS over the last two weeks.

What no one had in the cards was Steven Kwan’s struggles. It has to be difficult for someone who has been a centerpiece of the Cleveland offense for several years to be struggling. He has walked more than he has fanned, but his pop has disappeared, He slugged .374 last season is a somewhat down year, but this season that figure is down to .262.

We realize he has been struggling for close to a calendar year, but we don’t think sending him down would work. But perhaps he shouldn’t be a given to be written in the lineup everyday.

Hopefully, these issues will work themselves out quickly. A good place to start is with division rival Detroit coming to town tomorrow night.

Numbers Don’t Always Tell The Story

Analytics. It certainly has been a buzz word in sports for a while now, but it seems to be in the news again after Cavs’ coach Kenny Atkinson made his comment after game three of the Eastern Conference Finals when he said if you look at shot quality, his team should be up two games to one.

That may stick with Atkinson for a long time and frankly why he said it is a mystery to us.

Look, this isn’t a piece to poop on analytics. Keeping track of certain things is very valuable and for a franchise to ignore the number would be foolish. However, in Atkinson’s case, the better way to evaluate those games were our eyes, and that metric tells us the Cavaliers got their butts kicked by the New York Knicks.

You have to use both to have success, which makes sense to us, but there are people and organizations that are slaves to the numbers.

Heck, we heard a former player on the Guardians’ telecast say that batting average kind of measures how lucky a hitter is. We guess players like George Brett and Wade Boggs just had a lot of good fortune. Every year.

We heard a perfect example of how analytics should be used pertaining to the Cleveland Guardians. The exit velocity shows Jose Ramirez is hitting the ball as hard as ever despite his numbers not being up to his normal statistics.

Since Ramirez has put up excellent numbers for a long period of time, seeing he is still hitting bullets should allay any fear that he is starting to decline at 33 years old. Conversely, last year people kept pointing out Nolan Jones’ exit velocity as justification that he should play despite a .211 batting average (yeah, we know) and a 600 OPS.

What’s the difference? Outside of Jones’ first year with Colorado, there is no evidence he is a good major league hitter. HIs OPS in the other three seasons are under 700. Past performance indicates that Ramirez should be just fine.

Jones’ history indicates his exit velocity doesn’t indicate any success at the big-league level.

In basketball, we keep seeing people assessing a player’s effectiveness by using +/-, which measures the scoring in the game at the time a player was on the floor. Again, with all of these numbers there is some use, but it should not be the sole judge of a player’s worth.

The darling of this statistic for Cavs’ influencers is Dean Wade. Wade is a very good defensive player, especially on the perimeter. He most definitely has a place in the NBA. However, Wade chooses to be a non-participant on the offensive end. When we were younger, we said players like him had an allergy to the ball, because they get rid of it so fast once they get it.

Apparently, Wade had the highest plus/minus of any Cleveland player in the post-season. Sorry, if you think that makes him super valuable, we wholeheartedly disagree.

In our coaching days, we used to tell players the last thing we looked at to determine who had a good game was the scoresheet. By watching the game, we knew who impacted the game positively. That hasn’t changed.

Numbers and statistics can tell part of the story, but there are things missed by analyzing them.