Exhibition baseball will be played at the end of this week; another indication spring and baseball are just around the corner.
Of course, we are all aware the Cleveland Guardians are two-time defending American League Central Division champions, but we are also aware it has been a very quiet off-season for the front office.
Overall, the Indians/Guardians have made the playoffs in seven of the last ten seasons, a time period we should start calling the Jose Ramirez Era. And in this decade, they’ve continued to win despite a payroll that keeps shrinking.
Despite the criticism we give them, we can also see the argument that they deserve the benefit of the doubt.
Since 2021, the Guards have finished 9th, 6th, 12th, 7th, and last in the AL in runs scored, so basically it has been five years since the team had a real good offense. The seasons in which they made the playoffs are in bold.
So outside of last year, when they have pretty much a league average hitting attack, they make the playoffs. Last year? We loved the stretch run when they pulled themselves from more than 10 games out to the division title, but if asked how they did it, we would say “smoke and mirrors”.
In fact, we will go out on a limb and say that if the Guardians rank in the bottom three of the AL in runs scored in 2026, they will be sitting at home when the post-season starts. If you look at the last 10-15 years in major league baseball, the teams that score the most runs are the teams that play in October.
Right now, the front office is saying they are going to give their young prospects, they pretty much have universally been rated as a top ten farm system in the sport, a runway for playing time. And we agree they need to give Chase DeLauter and George Valera solid chances to not only make the team, but to be in the lineup more often than not.
But what we fear is what happens if and when their luck runs out. What does it look like if the offense ranks in the bottom three in the Junior Circuit again in 2026? Our guess would be a below .500 record and general discontent from the fan base after two straight division titles.
We keep seeing people project batting orders and rosters for the 2026 season and still keep seeing three proven hitters: Ramirez, Steven Kwan, and Kyle Manzardo. Again, we feel if DeLauter stays healthy (a huge “if”), he won’t be overmatched.
And a reminder here the roster is still very heavy from the left side. And where is the hope for a decent right-handed hitter? They have David Fry, who had a very good ’24 season, but still has under 700 plate appearances in the bigs.
Angel Martinez was solid vs. lefties last season, but he’s also not a lock to make the team especially if DeLauter, Valera, and CJ Kayfus are on the roster. The other hope is Johnathan Rodriguez, who has performed well in AAA, but in 117 big league times at the plate (a horribly small sample size) has a 586 OPS.
Can the good luck continue for the Guardians? A better question is can the organization finally develop a legitimately good hitter? The success for this year is largely dependent on doing just that.
Cleveland Sports Perspective 