Poor Hitting With Runners In Scoring Position? Most Likely Because Poor Hitters Coming Up

It is no secret the Cleveland Guardians are struggling in regard to hitting with runners in scoring position. Currently, Cleveland ranks third last in the majors, ahead of only Seattle and Cincinnati, with a .227 batting average.

They are 20th in the big leagues in opportunities, and rank 14th in terms of striking out in these situations.

People keep looking for reasons as to why this is happening, but really, it’s simple. The Guardians simply don’t have enough good hitters.

We understand this seems obvious, but applying logic, we will show you what the problem is. It’s not a matter of hitters not having the “clutch gene” or in a lot of cases putting too much pressure on themselves.

First, the Guardians have no one getting on base at a .350 or better clip. Their leaders are Austin Hedges at .348 (if you can believe that), Chase DeLauter (.346), and Brayan Rocchio at .343. Let’s say for the sake of argument, that all three of these players get on base to start an inning.

Who comes up next?

The argument for a good offense is getting players who get on base (high on base percentage) and then players who can drive them in (high slugging percentage). So who leads the Guardians in slugging right now?

Two of the top three for Cleveland are currently on the injured list, including the team leader, Angel Martinez at .442. He is followed by DeLauter at .428 and Jose Ramirez, also out of the lineup right now at .418. Keep in mind, most people feel a slugging average of .450 is very good, and the Guardians have no one in that category.

So, of the three guys who have shown they can drive the ball, the only one who is playing right now is DeLauter, who is also one of the three guys who can get on base. And here is the dilemma for Steven Vogt and the powers that be who make out the lineup each day.

Getting back to the scenario where DeLauter and Rocchio get on base, here are the likely hitters to follow: Kyle Manzardo, who hasn’t had a good year with a 682 OPS. Rhys Hoskins, hitting .181 on the season with a 692 OPS. The third base platoon of Daniel Schneemann (611 OPS) or Gabriel Arias (646 OPS but striking out in 41% of his plate appearances.

And FYI, the 646 OPS is nothing to write home about either.

Then you might have Patrick Bailey, hitting .209 with a 564 OPS and then Steven Kwan, suffering through a terrible season with a 607 OPS.

The other problem is the strikeouts. When you don’t get hits in scoring position, sometimes you can have a productive out, moving a runner, hitting a sacrifice fly. Cleveland has 21 sac flies, ranking 21st in the sport.

Right now, four Guardians hitters (Arias, Manzardo, Hoskins, and Kahlil Watson) strikeout in more than 30% of their at bats. In Tuesday’s game against the Twins, DeLauter has a leadoff double, and Manzardo did move him to third with a grounder to the right side. Fundamental baseball.

But Hoskins struck out, and when Rocchio grounded out, DeLauter was left standing on third.

It certainly is a challenge for Vogt to figure out how to scratch out runs with a lineup where there are only two or three decent hitters. The poor average with runners in scoring position to due a lot to having nothing but mediocre bats coming up when runners do happen to reach safely.

Looking At The Guardians, Halfway Through.

The Cleveland Guardians reached the halfway point of their season prior to the weekend series against Seattle with a record of 42-39, respectable considering only four teams in the American League are over the break-even mark.

They’ve done this despite a month-long hitting slump, as they have tread water during this period where they have not been able to score runs, going 10-13 in June to date. Steven Vogt’s crew will likely be without their best player, Jose Ramirez, for another month (hopefully less), so can they sustain their place in the standings without him?

After a decent start offensively to the season, the offense has returned to the bottom of the AL, and remember, for the most part, teams that score runs in the regular season make the post-season. They rank last in OPS, last in slugging, and 14th (second last) in on base percentage. And we’ve documented in past posts, that the “slump” started in the middle of May, not when Ramirez, Angel Martinez, and Chase DeLauter went down with injuries in the same game.

Once again, the outfield has been a problem. While first base is the lowest position ranking according to WAR in the AL, the next two spots belong to leftfield and centerfield. Part of this is the poor year Steven Kwan is having. The two-time all-star is arguably the worst hitter in the league this season, with an OPS under 600 (575), a batting average of .210 and a slugging average less than his on base percentage (.319 OBP and .256 slugging).

How have the Guardians remained above the .500 mark? As usual, the answer is pitching. Cleveland has still only used five starters this season, remarkable in today’s game. They rank 4th in the AL in ERA, and they have the league leader in saves in Cade Smith, who has 26.

Parker Messick has emerged as a potential all-star, with a 2.67 ERA and 101 strikeouts in 94.1 innings. One thing to watch with him is his innings. The most he’s thrown in any season is 133, so no doubt the front office will try to control that in the second half.

And while Gavin Williams hasn’t had a good June, he’s been picked up by Tanner Bibee, who has been outstanding in his four starts, putting up a 1.71 ERA.

The bullpen has to develop some depth though. Hunter Gaddis looks like he is back after a slow start with an IL stint to start the year. Colin Holderman has been a find, with a 1.55 ERA in 28 games, allowing just one homer and 13 hits in 29 frames.

Erik Sabrowski missed some time with elbow inflammation, and he’s been fine too with 42 Ks in 22.1 innings. But the rest of the ‘pen has had issues.

Matt Festa, everyone’s favorite, has allowed six long balls in 34 innings. Shawn Armstrong, the Guardians’ main free agent, has given up three dingers and walked 12 in 23.2 frames. And Tim Herrin, the other southpaw wias Sabrowski, has struggled to throw strikes, walking 19 in 28.2 innings.

Daniel Espino might be an option down the road, but right now he’s showing he’s not ready to pitch in the big leagues. Which leaves the question as to why Franco Aleman, with an 0.33 ERA at AAA isn’t with the big club.

However, to win a third straight Central Division title, and with the AL West struggled, a bye into the Division Series, the Guardians are going to need to put more runs on the board. They have had a bottom of the league offense now for a season and a half.

Getting DeLauter back help, but hopefully the front office can get a solid bat at the trade deadline. It would certainly save the fingernails of Guardians’ fans everywhere.

It’s Tough To Watch, But Numbers On Guardians’ Offense Are Uglier

On May 18th, the Cleveland Guardians defeated the Tigers 8-2 to raise their record to 27-22 and following the game their team OPS was 708.

After Tuesday night’s 2-1 loss to the White Sox, the Guards fourth defeat by that score in June alone, the team OPS sits at 681. Cleveland’s on base percentage has dropped 15 points in that time span and the slugging percentage has dipped 12 points.

The team batting average has dipped five points. They’ve scored more than four runs in a game just six times. It’s really amazing that Cleveland has gone 15-17 in that span.

Note the date though. The injuries to Jose Ramirez, Angel Martinez, and Chase DeLauter occurred on June 13th, the offense was struggling for three weeks before that trio went down.

What has happened? After the first two series of the season, when the Guardians fanned 10 or more times in four games, they did so just five times until a game two days later after the aforementioned victory over the Tigers.

Since that May 18th contest, a span of 32 games, Cleveland hitters struck out 10+ times in 15 games, including seven of the last nine. It’s difficult to get hits when you don’t put the ball in play.

In that win over Detroit, Guardians batters walked seven times, the 18th time in the first 49 games they drew five or more bases on balls in a game. In the last 31 games? That’s happened just five times, and in those games, the Guardians scored at least four runs in four of them.

Granted, Ramirez and DeLauter are two of the most patient hitters Cleveland has, ranking 1st and 4th in drawing free passes on the team, but Martinez rarely walks, so there’s that.

Look at some of the strikeout to walk ratios of some of the players who have been forced into service since June 13th when the injuries occurred–

Gabriel Arias 25 K/2 BB
Petey Halpin 15 K/1 BB
Kahlil Watson 9 K/1 BB

And we haven’t even mentioned the weird stat line of Stuart Fairchild, who has 27 plate appearances and has fanned in over half of them (14) but also has drawn seven walks. Add in three hits, and somehow, he has a .407 on base percentage and a 565 OPS.

That’s unique.

It’s not just the new guys who are struggling either. Daniel Schneemann is hitting .133 during this period with a woeful 408 OPS. David Fry, who we thought should be in the lineup more now with the injuries, is 5 for 33 (.167) with a 639 OPS, and is in the midst of a 1 for 23 skid.

Over the last 30 days, Guardians’ hitters rank 4th in all of baseball in striking out. The three teams with more are Cincinnati, the Angels, and the Orioles. Those teams have all hit at least 28 home runs as a team. The Guardians have 19, the lowest during that span in MLB.

Two AL Central teams, the Twins and Tigers have each more than doubled Cleveland’s homer total over the last month. That’s not good either.

Solutions? Get back to being more patient? Swap some players with Columbus? It does speak to developing hitters, something the organization has struggled with for a while now.

But they have to figure it out soon or they will be in a big hole when Ramirez does get back.

Is Depth Becoming An Issue For Guardians?

The Major League Baseball season ebbs and flows as the marathon progresses. The Cleveland Guardians were riding high after a trip to Detroit and Philadelphia where they won six or seven. They had a 4.5 game lead in the AL Central Division.

Since then, Steven Vogt’s club has dropped 10 of 15 and have fallen out of first place for the first time since the end of April. It’s still way early, but the larger the advantage, the better. Injuries have hurt the team and since the Guards depend so much on rookies, players in their premier season in the big leagues tend to be inconsistent.

Of course, one of the things we wanted the front office to do in the off-season was to build some depth, but they didn’t and some weaknesses are starting to show.

One area we would have liked to see an addition is in the starting rotation. The Guardians have only used five starters all season, the only team in the big to do so. But recently, Joey Cantillo has not pitched well. In his last three starts, he went two innings (throwing 69 pitches), four innings, and five frames, and in the latter, he only went that far was because Vogt was saving his bullpen.

In those 11 innings, he’s allowed 15 earned runs, walking nine hitters in that span. Not only does it make it very difficult to win games that way, it also puts a lot of stress on the bullpen.

However, the only alternative the Guardians have is lefty Logan Allen who had a 4.25 ERA last season but struggled to throw strikes at times. And Cantillo does not have any options remaining, so the best the organization can do is move him to the bullpen temporarily.

Speaking of the bullpen, the elbow injury to Erik Sabrowski is also an issue. Sabrowski has been excellent, striking out 39 hitters in 21 innings and pitching to a 1.71 ERA. His absence puts Tim Herrin in that role, and he has problems throwing strikes (15 walks in 24 innings).

Will Dion is the other southpaw in the bullpen, and he is used more often than not by the skipper in a mop up role.

Offensively, as we said rookies can tend to be streaky, particularly early in their careers. Chase DeLauter is hitting just .208 over the last 28 days and has just two extra base hits, with only two walks in the last two weeks. DeLauter doesn’t have a lot of games where he doesn’t contribute to the offense though and we expect him to get hot again soon.

Travis Bazzana is also in a funk, going 9 for 49 in the last two weeks and drawing just three walks. He has seven extra base hits during that time,so again, we think he will start hitting again soon.

Thank goodness for Kyle Manzardo and Brayan Rocchio who have got hot, and for all of the talk of Jose Ramirez struggling, he has an 874 OPS over the last month and 878 OPS over the last two weeks.

What no one had in the cards was Steven Kwan’s struggles. It has to be difficult for someone who has been a centerpiece of the Cleveland offense for several years to be struggling. He has walked more than he has fanned, but his pop has disappeared, He slugged .374 last season is a somewhat down year, but this season that figure is down to .262.

We realize he has been struggling for close to a calendar year, but we don’t think sending him down would work. But perhaps he shouldn’t be a given to be written in the lineup everyday.

Hopefully, these issues will work themselves out quickly. A good place to start is with division rival Detroit coming to town tomorrow night.

Improved Offense A Huge Development For The Guardians

Memorial Day has always been a time for Major League Baseball teams to self-evaluate. Back in the day, the holiday meant about one quarter of the season had passed. Today, since the regular season starts at the end of March, a third of the regular season has been played.

The Cleveland Guardians are on a hot streak right now, winning seven of their last eight and 10 of their last 12 contests, sitting at 31-23. That puts them on a pace to win over 90 games and would seem likely to be playing some post-season baseball.

An improved offense has been a key component to their good start. After finishing in the bottom three in all of baseball in runs scored a year ago, they are 16th this season. A key factor in this improvement has to be patience.

We aren’t talking about the patience in developing players; we are discussing patience at the plate. Last season Cleveland hitters ranked 20th in drawing walks. This year, they are 3rd. They were 29th in on base percentage in 2025 and currently are 11th in the same category this season.

The improved offense plus a pitching staff that still ranks 7th in the majors in ERA equates to their 31-22 record, although a year ago at this time, the Guardians were at about the same place. They were 29-24.

We were skeptical about the Guardians’ success coming into the season because they did not really add a bat to the roster, outside of Rhys Hoskins, and depending on rookies to make big differences is always risky.

The current league average in OPS throughout MLB is 707. As of today, Steven Vogt’s squad have seven hitters over the league average. Last year? They had three, Jose Ramirez, Kyle Manzardo, and Steven Kwan.

Two of those three, Kwan and Manzardo, have gotten off to slow starts and currently sit below than number, although Manzardo is closing the gap.

The difference has been the rookies, Chase DeLauter stepped right into the lineup and because of his approach, very selective at the plate, he has been consistent. Right now, he has the over 800 OPS the best hitters have, over .350 on base and over .450 slugging.

Another rookie, Travis Bazzana, has also contributed nicely, getting on base at a ,391 clip.

Two other players who have been with the Guards the past couple seasons have also blossomed. We have long championed Brayan Rocchio as being the Cleveland shortstop of the future and he is showing that thus far.

Solid defensively as always, Rocchio has a .376 on base average and has mixed in 12 extra base hits, and sorry for the younger fans, also ranks second on the team in RBIs with 27 behind only DeLauter.

The other is Angel Martinez, who is just a little more plate discipline away from being an all-star player. Martinez is slugging .476 and is third on the team in extra base hits behind Ramirez and DeLauter. And he seems to be learning more and more from Ramirez.

His strikeout to walk ratio needs improvement, as he has fanned 35 times and his six walks are the lowest figure on the team. He has stolen eight bases and takes the extra base often, like Ramirez. He is earning the right to be in the lineup most days in Vogt’s everyone plays rotation.

Getting men on base is the opposite of making outs. Keep doing it, and the Guardians’ offense will continue to pick up. If it continues, it could be a fun summer at Progressive Field.

Guardians’ Patience Will Likely Lead To Better Offense

We love walks. We love baseball players that take walks rather than swinging at bad pitches. And better yet, we like teams that draw bases on balls because they make pitchers work hard to get outs.

Over the last few years, the Cleveland Guardians are heeding our advice (not really, we aren’t that egotistic). In 2023, they ranked 13th in the American League in drawing walks, moved up one spot in ’24, and last season were 9th.

Entering play on Wednesday, Steven Vogt’s crew sits second in the junior circuit in getting on base via the walk. That’s a good thing. A real good thing.

People ask us from time to time why we like walks, after all it is not a reason people go to baseball games. But if a player walks, he’s not making an out and each team gets 27 outs in every nine inning baseball contest. Let us say that again. They aren’t making outs.

Last season, the Guardians had no one who walked more than they fanned. The closest were Jose Ramirez who walked 66 times with 74 strikeouts and Steven Kwan (55 walks, 60 Ks). Kwan did accomplish the feat in ’24 when he whiffed 51 times, drawing 53 walks.

So far this year, and we know there is a lot of season still to be played, Cleveland has four batters in this situation: Ramirez (31 BB, 28 Ks), Kwan (22 BB, 21 K), rookie Chase DeLauter (20 BB, 16 K) and another rookie, Travis Bazzana (12 BB, 8 K). In addition, Brayan Rocchio (14 BB/14 K) is even.

In addition, newcomer Rhys Hoskins who is hitting just .185, but has drawn 24 walks, making his on base percentage a very respectable .353.

Unfortunately, it hasn’t translated to runs yet because the Guards still rank 12th in the AL in that category. But perhaps we need to be patient with that.

Last season in MLB, of the top five teams in runs scored, three of them were in the top five in walks, and all of them with in the top half of the sport in drawing bases on balls. In 2024, the same was true, meaning three of the top five in scoring also were in the top five in walks, and only Baltimore wasn’t in the top half of baseball in walking.

In 2023, two of the highest scoring teams (Dodgers and Rangers) also ranked in the top five in walks, and again, four of the five were in the top half of MLB.

So, more often than not, if you draw a lot of walks, you will score a lot of runs.

Why haven’t the Guardians converted more of the walks into runs yet this year? Our theory is once they have runners in scoring position, they revert to their old impatient ways, swinging early in the count and often trying to hit pitches that aren’t strikes.

We get it. They are trying to do too much. They need to keep the same approach, get good pitches to hit, and as David Fry did the other night, take a bases loaded walk. It gets a run across and keeps the opposing pitcher in trouble.

Usually in sports, aggressiveness is rewarded. In baseball, sometimes patience is a good way to go. And we think it will pay off in the long run.

Guards Have Some Holes, But Generally Things Are Trending Well

Former Cleveland baseball broadcaster, the late Mike Hegan, used to say a baseball team wants to win three out of five games. If you do that, he said, you wind up with 96 wins and that gets you in the playoffs.

With 1/6th of the 2026 Major League Baseball season played, the Guardians aren’t too far off that pace, sitting at 15-12 and on pace to win 90 games this season. Considering they’ve played the defending champion Dodgers, a team that played in the ALCS a year ago in Seattle and are currently playing the American League champion Blue Jays, that’s not bad.

Last season, Steven Vogt’s crew had the worst offense in the AL and thus far, they have greatly improved, moving up to 10th. There is still a way to go, but it is a good sign that the hitting has improved.

Ranking last in the league in getting on base in 2025, they are 9th in the AL this year. And they are doing it with two of the best hitters on the team last season, Steven Kwan and Kyle Manzardo, getting off to terrible starts.

Rookie Chase DeLauter started out like a house afire, but even though he hasn’t homered since April 3rd, he puts up professional at bats each night. For a rookie to walk more than he has struck out (13 to 11) is quite impressive, and he is tied for the club lead in extra base hits with Jose Ramirez too.

We liked the potential of Angel Martinez because he was lethal against lefties last year and he is still a young player at 24 years old. This year, he’s hammering righties. Although we would like to see him improve his strikeout to walk ratio, he may have played himself into a guy who should be in the lineup more often than not.

And we wonder if Brayan Rocchio has Wally Pipp’d Gabriel Arias. Rocchio is second on the team in RBIs (although we don’t expect that to continue), but is getting on base at a .372 clip.

With DeLauter, Martinez, and Rocchio performing as they are, the lineup suddenly has a little more depth.

Pitching wise, the Guards rank 7th in the AL in ERA, not great, but not terrible. Gavin Williams continues to show signs of being the ace of the staff and is tied for the league lead in strikeouts but is third in walks. If he can get that aspect under control, Cleveland will have one of the best starters in the league.

Rookie Parker Messick has been a revelation too, sitting at 3-0 with a 1.76 ERA. But the other three starters have struggled in certain areas. Tanner Bibee is showing signs of getting back to his usual results, but still seems to have that one bad inning.

Joey Cantillo has great stuff, but control is an issue for him, with 12 walks in 25.1 innings, so it is tough for him to pitch deep into games. And Slade Cecconi has been a big disappointment thus far, with really only one good start on the year.

The bullpen has to perform better if the Guards are to be a contending team all year long. Right now, Cade Smith hasn’t been his dominant self. Free agent signee Shawn Armstrong has had difficulties finding the strike zone. Connor Brogdon seems prone to the long ball.

Overall, the relievers aren’t throwing strikes and are giving up too many homers. Hunter Gaddis has come off the IL and has given Vogt some stability, which is a good sign.

All in all, a good start for the Guardians and some good signs from a maturing team. Can these trends continue?

Some Promising Signs For Guardians’ Offense

During Saturday night’s Cleveland Guardians’ game, it was speculated late in the telecast if their was any frustration building for the Guards because they were getting a lot of baserunners, but not many of them crossed home plate.

We understand this could cause the hitters to put pressure on themselves to come through with men in scoring position, but hopefully the offense doesn’t change the approach we have seen recently.

We are a big proponent of drawing walks. It’s an overlooked skill by many baseball fans, but when we are asked why we like bases on balls, the answer is simple: It’s better than making an out.

It hasn’t translated yet in terms of runs scored, that’s for sure. Cleveland still ranks third from the bottom in the American League in runs scored. However, they have moved up to 10th in batting average from 14th a year ago, and they are also 10th in on base percentage. They were dead last in 2025.

That’s progress.

It’s also early.

Guardians’ hitters seem to be working counts better, fouling off pitches, and driving up pitch counts this season, save for the opening series against Seattle. And this approach will pay dividends as the season goes on, getting into opponents’ bullpens earlier.

Right now, Steven Vogt’s squad has several hitters with solid strikeout to walk ratios. Brayan Rocchio has actually walked more than he has fanned, with ninr bases on balls vs. six whiffs. It’s why he has a .344 on base percentage despite hitting .200

The usual reliables, Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan, are about even in the K/BB ratio. And we liked rookie Chase DeLauter’s ratio in the minors, and so far it has translated to the bigs, as he has taken seven free passes against 10 punchouts.

Another rookie with the same type of profile in the minors, Juan Brito, has drawn a couple of walks in his 20 plate appearances with only five whiffs.

And speaking of striking out, Cleveland hitters have the third fewest in the AL thus far, another good thing.

Something else positive? The Guardians are sixth in the league in home runs to date. Last year, they were 13th. Outside of DeLauter’s opening salvo in the power department, this has been accomplished without the big bats supplying the pop. Ramirez has two homers. Kyle Manzardo, who was second on the team a year ago with 27 dingers, has just one.

Free agent signee Rhys Hoskins only has one.

We haven’t even mentioned Angel Martinez, who is 15 for 47 with five extra base hits. And so far, he’s hitting from both sides of the plate.

Last season, the Guardians’ anemic attack not only didn’t hit homers, they also didn’t get extra base hits either, ranking 12th in doubles. This year? They are currently second. DeLauter has nine extra base knocks, with Ramirez, Hoskins and Daniel Schneemann contributing six each.

As we said before, it is way too early for conclusions, but these are good signs for the Guardians’ ability to score runs. Hopefully, these trends continue because as we always say, you have to score runs to get into the post-season.

Happy With Four Wins, Way Too Soon For Conclusions On Guardians

Looking at the schedule for the Cleveland Guardians before the season started, since they were opening the season against a team that played in the American League Championship Series last year in Seattle, and then were taking on the two-time World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers, coming back to Progressive Field at 3-4 would be great.

They went 4-3. Even better.

And we were a big critic of the off-season by the front office, not adding enough hitting, so naturally, seeing Steven Vogt’s squad getting two hit twice in the first six games make us feel justified in that criticism, correct?

Not yet. It is still way too early.

The Guards are 13th in the AL in runs scored, but a game scoring 10 runs would boost them greatly in that ranking, because it is way too soon.

We know we live in a social media society where everyone voices an instantaneous opinion, but people do need to relax. For example, the Guardians though Bo Naylor would break out offensively and so far, he is 3 for 19 and looks pretty much like the same guy we’ve seen over the past couple of years. But a 3 for 4 day, would bring his batting average up to .261. That’s how volatile stats can be at this time of the season.

Readers of this site know we are bullish on strikeout to walk ratio, and right now Kyle Manzardo has fanned 11 times with just two walks. He came to the organization with a good knowledge of the strike zone but did whiff a lot in spring training.

In watching his at bats, it is not like he is striking out on four pitches a lot. There have been several at bats where he has battled with two strikes to get back in the count by fouling off pitches and goes down on the sixth or seventh pitch.

We wish he’d put the ball in play, but all in all, it’s a solid at bat.

And because Chase DeLauter is off to a solid start (we know, an understatement), the calls for Travis Bazzana have started too. People, he’s hitting .200 to start the year in Columbus (3 for 15, with a double, triple, and four walks!). He’s had just 139 plate appearances in AAA,

First, no one can assume Bazzana will be good because DeLauter started off hot. And DeLauter will have struggles at some point too. But let the Australian get some more at bats in the minors. We have no doubt if Gabriel Arias and Brayan Rocchio keep struggling, he will be in Cleveland soon enough.

There were some freaking out about Steven Kwan after the first couple of games. He took an 0 for 5 in the opener. Since then, he is 7 for 22.

Make no mistake, we would like to say “we told you so”, but it is way too early and as we said before they are coming home with three wins against two quality opponents. Have to be happy about that.

And even better, the Guardians will be home tomorrow and that’s always a great thing.

Can Guardians Get Back To October Baseball? We Just Don’t See It

The regular season starts today for most Major League Baseball teams, including the Cleveland Guardians. What will the season hold for Steven Vogt’s crew this season? Here are our thoughts:

Why they can win. Much has been discussed about the so-called “Cleveland pitching factory” and frankly it is merited. Since 2020, the Guardians have finished in the top half of the American League in ERA in all but one year (2021), and have been in the top three thrice, including the last two seasons.

The 20-7 stretch to end the season last year was in part possible because the Guardians held their opponents to under three runs per contest. They can pitch.

Gavin Williams takes the next step towards being an ace. Slade Cecconi allowed less hits than innings pitched and showed some old school traits, like pitching to weak contact. And Tanner Bibee rebounds from a bit of a tough year and pitches more like he did in his first two seasons.

The bullpen continues to be the backbone of the staff, led by fireballer Cade Smith, and bolstered by new acquisition Shawn Armstrong, while one of the new relievers, Peyton Pallette, Colin Holderman, or Connor Brogdon steps up and becomes another guy Vogt can rely on.

Offensively, Chase DeLauter is what we hoped he’d be, another solid bat in the middle of the lineup. Steven Kwan rebounds from an off year for him. Bo Naylor hits like he did in September when he hit .290 with an OPS of 872.

And of course, Jose Ramirez has another MVP type season.

And two of these players, Gabriel Arias, Brayan Rocchio and Angel Martinez continue to progress like the front offce thinks they will.

The result is a third consecutive AL Central Division title.

Why they won’t. In the wild card era, you have to score runs to make the post-season. While there are exceptions, teams that score the most runs get to play in October. Since 2000, here is where Cleveland has ranked in runs scored in the AL: 13th, 9th, 6th, 12th, 7th, and last year 15th (last).

This year, their luck runs out. Essentially adding two hitters (DeLauter and Rhys Hoskins) to the worst run scoring team in the league doesn’t make a big difference. The team still ranks in the bottom half of the league in scoring

Vogt continues to get subpar offense out of his keystone combination, leading to rushing Travis Bazzana and Naylor is the hitter he has been throughout his career, an OPS of 670.

The starting rotation springs a leak or two due to minor injuries and the rotation depth in Columbus isn’t ready to pick up the slack. And the new additions to the bullpen show why they were available for the Guardians this winter.

What do we think will happen? Unfortunately, we believe the lack of offense finally catches up to the Guardians in 2026 and they will hover around the .500 mark and finish third in the Central Division behind the Tigers and Royals.

Continuing to depend on hitters like Arias, Schneemann, and younger hitters who don’t have a great minor league resume is an issue. We do think DeLauter will be an effective hitter and signing Hoskins helps too, but a good offense needs seven solid bats, and the Guards aren’t there.

We also are concerned about the starting pitching depth. We wish they would have signed an extra arm like Zack Littell or Lucas Giolito to start the year and soak up some innings. Not sure having to have Doug Nikhazy make around ten starts in the big leagues is something to look forward to.

We are sure the influencers won’t be happy, and we would love to be completely wrong and be celebrating October baseball later this year. But we see too many holes right now.