The Cleveland Guardians pride themselves on being a pitching factory. Even the national media talks about it. When we read that, we always think what happened to the blueprints for the hitting factory.
A recent ranking of starting rotations in the sport had Cleveland ranked 24th though, far below where they normally sit. And frankly, that ranking makes sense to us.
Right now, the rotation consists of two pitchers who missed significant time with arm problems in Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, and three guys who have less than a season of experience.
Bieber has missed substantial parts in two of the last three seasons with injuries, completing only the 2022 season, when he went 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA and 198 strikeouts in 200 innings.
Last season, his velocity was down, but he still was reasonably effective in 128 innings, pitching to a 3.80 ERA (league average was 4.33) and allowing less hits than innings pitched.
McKenzie pitched in just four games, totaling only 16 innings with an elbow issue. That issue has led many pitchers to “Tommy John surgery”, and frankly, that’s still a concern for us heading into the season. And if something happens during spring training, we won’t see the 26-year-old until the 2025 season.
The three rookies were very impressive in 2023, but still, it was their first year and since there is no track record for any of this trio, we have no idea what to expect.
Tanner Bibee was the star, finishing second in the American League rookie of the year voting, pitching to a 2.98 ERA in 25 starts totaling 142 innings. He allowed just 122 hits while striking out 141 and walking 45.
Lefty Logan Allen made 24 starts and went 7-8 with a 3.81 ERA in 125.1 innings, giving up 127 hits, whiffing 119 and issuing 48 walks. And former first round pick Gavin Williams made 16 starts and had a 3.29 ERA with 81 strikeouts in 82 innings with 37 walks.
Impressive as they are, the 2024 season will tell if they can be like the three rookies in the 1984 Kansas City Royals’ rotation, Bret Saberhagen, Mark Gubicza, and Danny Jackson, who helped lead the Royals to their first world championship in 1985.
On the other hand, the last starting pitcher who was the rookie of the year was Detroit’s Michael Fullmer, whose ERA was more than a half run worse the following year, and his strikeout rate was down.
The history of the game shows a bunch of pitchers who were very good in their first season, and once the hitters got a book on them, didn’t have the same success going forward. We think both Bibee and Williams in particular have good enough stuff to overcome this, but until we see it, there has to be a bit of doubt.
There isn’t much depth behind this group. Cleveland signed 32-year-old Ben Lively from Cincinnati, who has a career 5.05 ERA, and still has holdovers Hunter Gaddis (49.1 career innings, 6.57 ERA) and Xzavion Curry (4.07 ERA in long relief, spot starting duty last season)
It was mentioned in a piece by Mike Axisa last week that perhaps Trevor Stephan might profile better as a starting pitcher, as he was in the minor leagues before 2019.
And of course, the next man who should be ready from the pitching factory is left-hander Will Dion, who had a 2.39 ERA at high Class A and AA last year, fanning 129 in 116.1 innings, allowing just 91 hits.
There is very little experience in the group we mentioned, especially if a rumored deal involving Bieber is completed. We are sure a pitching prospect will come back, but of course, that just adds another unproven arm.
That’s a lot of questions for a team that likes to consider itself a contender for a post-season spot. Does the organization still think that way?
Cleveland Sports Perspective 