Some Struggles Among The Guardians’ Fast Start

There is no question the Cleveland Guardians have been one of the more surprising teams in Major League Baseball, jumping out to a 23-13 record and first place in the so far surprisingly strong AL Central.

The much-maligned division currently has four teams over the .500 mark.

That said, there have been some disappointing starts for a few of the Guardians’ players thus far. It’s still early and we don’t mean to dwell on the negative when the team is playing so well, but here are players we would like to see get going.

Bo Naylor had a strong second half last year, hitting .252 with 10 home runs and an 893 OPS, but has struggled at the plate and defensively so far in 2024. The left-handed hitter has just a 558 OPS and leads the team in strikeouts with 38 in 103 plate appearances.

His whiff rate is at 37% right now, compared to 23% last season and while he is among the team leaders in taking walks, his walk rate has dropped from last season.

Defensively, he already has four passed balls (he had 5 last season) and there have been several others where the pitcher was charged with a wild pitch, and the Guardians are tied for the AL high in that category, and we felt Naylor could have done a better job blocking it.

Remember, the Guardians as an organization value defense first behind the plate.

We aren’t saying Naylor should be in danger of losing his job, but we better contact and better defense should be the goal going forward.

Ramon Laureano was resigned in the off-season because he could can play CF and RF and because of his success against southpaws, a career 777 OPS against lefties. However, let’s not forget he was designated for assignment by the lowly A’s, where he hit .213 with a 645 OPS.

To date, he is 5 for 30 vs. left-handed pitching with 13 strikeouts and no walks in 32 plate appearances. Overall, he is hitting .150 with 27 whiffs, 7 walks, and a single home run. Could Johnathan Rodriguez, hitting .280 with an 867 OPS, be poised to take his at bats?

We are sure the organization doesn’t want to bring up Rodriguez and platoon him, and that might be the thing saving Laureano right now.

We knew one of the three rookie starting pitchers the Guardians had last season would have struggles, and Logan Allen is the one having the most troubles. Gavin Williams is still sidelined and while Tanner Bibee hasn’t been dominant, he does have a 4.46 ERA.

Allen had a solid second start of the season, going 6.2 shutout innings against Seattle, but other than that start, he’s pitched to a 7.71 ERA in 32.2 frames. He has a solid strikeout to walk ratio (33K:14 BB) but has allowing 47 hits, including nine home runs.

And to be fair, Allen didn’t pitch poorly in Houston, where bad defense did him in.

The problem is the lack of alternatives right now until Williams returns. Xzavion Curry gave Cleveland a solid start in his lone appearance for the big club, but currently has a 6.86 ERA at Columbus.

And add in the uncertainty (at least in our mind) every time Carlos Carrasco starts, and it’s clear the Guardians need Allen to get back to the guy who had a 3.81 ERA and gave up a hit an inning a year ago.

The Guardians are rapidly approaching the quarter pole of the season, but they need to see progress from this trio going forward.

An Early Tough Gut Punch For Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians are off to a very good start this season, but it didn’t make them exempt from getting bad news. Saturday, it was announced that Shane Bieber would have to undergo elbow surgery and miss the rest of the season.

It’s a blow for sure as the right-hander looked like he did in his Cy Young Award season in his first two starts, throwing 12 shutout innings with 20 strikeouts and just one walk.

Immediately, some fans raised the white flag on the season, but the players and Steven Vogt don’t and won’t feel that way. Since Bieber is a starting pitcher, they really only have to replace him once every fifth day.

Not to say we told you so, but the availability of Bieber as well as Triston McKenzie were two reasons we didn’t understand the organization’s decision not to add any pitching over the winter. McKenzie missed most of the 2023 season with an elbow issue, and hopefully he will make 30 starts, but it will be a pleasant surprise.

So, where does the organization go from here. First, many people have said the Guardians need to make a trade, but it’s so early in the season, it would seem to be difficult to find a trade partner.

Gavin Williams is down in Arizona right now building up his arm due to a tweak in his elbow (there’s that joint again), and if all goes well, he could be back by the end of April, and could take Bieber’s spot in the rotation.

Williams, if he can remain healthy, has the look of a stud starting pitcher and did well last season with a 3-5 record and 3.29 ERA and almost a strikeout per inning.

Until Williams is back, it could be Xzavion Curry or Ben Lively, the one free agent pitcher the Guardians did sign in the off-season, getting the ball.

Both pitchers are on rehab assignments after catching the flu/virus bug that traveled around the clubhouse in Arizona but were being stretched out as starters before they became ill.

Curry made nine starts a year ago and went 2.2 innings in his first outing at Columbus, while Lively, a 32-year-old veteran, made 12 starts last season for Cincinnati after spending the 2020-22 seasons in Korea as a starter.

Lively was 4-7 with a 5.38 ERA with the Reds in ’23, striking out 79 and walking 25 in 88.2 innings. He did allow 20 dingers with the Reds, and before you blame the bandbox stadium in the Queen City, the homers were divided equally home and road.

He went three in his first rehab outing.

With Sunday’s rainout and Thursday’s off day, the Guardians can get to next Tuesday’s game at Fenway Park before needing a fifth starter, so either Curry or Lively should be ready to give Steven Vogt at least five innings by then.

The way Bieber looked in his first two starts was so encouraging though. Through nine games, only three starters have completed six innings and Bieber’s starts were two of those.

Vogt is going to need Tanner Bibee and Carlos Carrasco to give him more innings in order to keep the bullpen, which has been excellent so far, fresh.

That duo hasn’t pitched poorly, but through their four combined starts, only Bibee has seen the sixth inning and that was just for one out.

The Guardians will continue to proceed with their “win today’s game” attitude, which is how it is supposed to be.

Losing Bieber for the rest of the year is a blow, but it happened early enough for the organization to adjust.

Moving On From Straw Is A New Direction From Guards?

Probably nothing signals a new era for Cleveland Guardians’ baseball than Myles Straw being put on waivers and outrighted to AAA.

Straw is kind of the poster child for the question of how important is being an elite defender to play on an everyday basis? Straw won the Gold Glove in 2022 and was certainly a tremendous glove in patrolling centerfield during his tenure in Cleveland, but frankly, he was one of the worst hitters in the sport.

For a team that finished 12th in the American League in runs scored a year ago, his bat was no longer a luxury they could afford.

In Ozzie Smith’s second season, he batted .211 with a 522 OPS. As good as Smith was with the glove, if he didn’t provide better offense, we would have been a bench player for a while, and then would have been released.

And he’s probably the greatest defensive shortstop ever.

Smith gradually got better with a bat in his hands. Perhaps Straw will at some point, but if he doesn’t, we would guess he won’t be a regular in the major leagues again.

Not to get bogged down with Straw, but the curious thing about him is he never changed his offensive approach in games. He never learned or improved his bunting skills. He also stopped running when he did reach base, which was even more curious.

As for the rest of the roster, it does look like Straw’s replacement in center might be converted shortstop Tyler Freeman. We have long wondered what Freeman would do if he was getting regular playing time, and we guess we will know find out.

The pedigree is there as far as his minor league numbers go. He slashed 393/387/780 in AAA and overall, 382/430/812. Now, it’s up to him to prove those numbers can translate to the big leagues.

We were also happy to learn Brayan Rocchio will be the primary shortstop over Gabriel Arias, because we think the former is the better offensive player.

We aren’t saying the organization should ignore the defense, especially when you’ve built everything around your pitching staff, but to us, if it comes down to playing a pretty good fielder who can hit vs. a great glove who cannot, we go with the first option every time.

Estevan Florial made the team despite a lackluster camp, and it will be interesting to see how Steven Vogt uses him. Our thought with him is if he doesn’t do anything with the bat, there is the logical spot for Kyle Manzardo to come in and replace him on the roster.

The pitching staff is very much in flux because of injuries and the virus which affected the team all spring. Gavin Williams and Sam Hentges will start on the injured list, and we already know Trevor Stephan is out for the season.

So, Carlos Carrasco will open as the fifth starter, and Tyler Beede, a non-roster invitee who pitched in Japan last season also will be on hand. Hunter Gaddis is now a reliever, and was very good in Arizona, fanning 17 in 11-2/3 innings.

Rookie Cade Smith could also make the big club after striking out 11 in eight frames in spring training, coming off whiffing 95 in 62-2/3 innings in the minors last season, albeit with a 4.45 ERA.

How will this group of Guardians perform once the games count for real in Oakland on Thursday night? We will talk about that in a couple of days.

Guardians’ Starting Depth? Not That Much.

The Cleveland Guardians pride themselves on being a pitching factory. Even the national media talks about it. When we read that, we always think what happened to the blueprints for the hitting factory.

A recent ranking of starting rotations in the sport had Cleveland ranked 24th though, far below where they normally sit. And frankly, that ranking makes sense to us.

Right now, the rotation consists of two pitchers who missed significant time with arm problems in Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, and three guys who have less than a season of experience.

Bieber has missed substantial parts in two of the last three seasons with injuries, completing only the 2022 season, when he went 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA and 198 strikeouts in 200 innings.

Last season, his velocity was down, but he still was reasonably effective in 128 innings, pitching to a 3.80 ERA (league average was 4.33) and allowing less hits than innings pitched.

McKenzie pitched in just four games, totaling only 16 innings with an elbow issue. That issue has led many pitchers to “Tommy John surgery”, and frankly, that’s still a concern for us heading into the season. And if something happens during spring training, we won’t see the 26-year-old until the 2025 season.

The three rookies were very impressive in 2023, but still, it was their first year and since there is no track record for any of this trio, we have no idea what to expect.

Tanner Bibee was the star, finishing second in the American League rookie of the year voting, pitching to a 2.98 ERA in 25 starts totaling 142 innings. He allowed just 122 hits while striking out 141 and walking 45.

Lefty Logan Allen made 24 starts and went 7-8 with a 3.81 ERA in 125.1 innings, giving up 127 hits, whiffing 119 and issuing 48 walks. And former first round pick Gavin Williams made 16 starts and had a 3.29 ERA with 81 strikeouts in 82 innings with 37 walks.

Impressive as they are, the 2024 season will tell if they can be like the three rookies in the 1984 Kansas City Royals’ rotation, Bret Saberhagen, Mark Gubicza, and Danny Jackson, who helped lead the Royals to their first world championship in 1985.

On the other hand, the last starting pitcher who was the rookie of the year was Detroit’s Michael Fullmer, whose ERA was more than a half run worse the following year, and his strikeout rate was down.

The history of the game shows a bunch of pitchers who were very good in their first season, and once the hitters got a book on them, didn’t have the same success going forward. We think both Bibee and Williams in particular have good enough stuff to overcome this, but until we see it, there has to be a bit of doubt.

There isn’t much depth behind this group. Cleveland signed 32-year-old Ben Lively from Cincinnati, who has a career 5.05 ERA, and still has holdovers Hunter Gaddis (49.1 career innings, 6.57 ERA) and Xzavion Curry (4.07 ERA in long relief, spot starting duty last season)

It was mentioned in a piece by Mike Axisa last week that perhaps Trevor Stephan might profile better as a starting pitcher, as he was in the minor leagues before 2019.

And of course, the next man who should be ready from the pitching factory is left-hander Will Dion, who had a 2.39 ERA at high Class A and AA last year, fanning 129 in 116.1 innings, allowing just 91 hits.

There is very little experience in the group we mentioned, especially if a rumored deal involving Bieber is completed. We are sure a pitching prospect will come back, but of course, that just adds another unproven arm.

That’s a lot of questions for a team that likes to consider itself a contender for a post-season spot. Does the organization still think that way?

Moving Quantrill Is Odd, Getting Barlow Is Good

Former Guardians’ manager Terry Francona, and yes, it’s weird to write that, used to say that when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more. Apparently, Cleveland is no subscribing to that adage with one of their first off-season moves.

In order to add rookies Daniel Espino and Cade Smith to the 40-man roster, the Guardians designated Cal Quantrill for assignment.

Quantrill will likely never be in the conversation for a Cy Young Award, but he is a reliable starting pitcher.

The Guards received minor league catcher Kody Huff from Colorado, he played in A ball last season. Team president Chris Antonetti said the Guardians didn’t think Quantrill was worth the likely $6 million he would receive in arbitration, and in a vacuum, he’s probably right.

However, sometimes there is hidden value. With Shane Bieber (who may be traded) and Triston McKenzie coming off injuries, if they aren’t ready, the starting rotation right now looks like Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, and a mixture of Hunter Gaddis, rookie Joey Cantillo, Xzavion Curry, and perhaps Cody Morris.

That would be three second-year starters, who have no proven track record in the bigs, and a bunch of arms without a track record in the majors.

Wouldn’t Quantrill, a proven big-league starter have some value to Cleveland? He has made 94 big league starts, pitching to a 4.06 ERA in those outings.

If you were a contending club, or one who says they are, you would want pitchers who you know can give you a decent outing. And as much as we like Bibee, Williams, and Allen, we don’t know if they will pitch as well in 2024.

So, if we were Antonetti and Mike Chernoff, we’d be looking for an established starting pitcher. Our philosophy as a GM would be to guard against things as best you can if things go wrong. With the injuries to Bieber and McKenzie, and depending on second-year players, we think a lot could go wrong.

Cleveland did make another trade on Friday, getting reliever Scott Barlow from San Diego for Enyel De Los Santos.

De Los Santos had two solid years here, pitching in 120 games with a 3.18 ERA and 123 strikeouts in 119 innings, but seemed more comfortable in a sixth or seventh inning role. His ERA is almost a run higher in the 8th than in the 7th in his career.

Barlow has closing experience, saving 53 games with the Royals from 2021 to 2023, including 13 last year before being dealt to the Padres. He’s also a strikeout pitcher, fanning 393 hitters in 332 innings for his career.

He should give Emmanuel Clase some relief at times, because he seemed to be the only reliable alternative the team had in ’23.

And he would also seem to move Trevor Stephan, who struggled mightily in the second half last year into more of a 7th inning role.

The Guardians also signed Ramon Laureano to a one-year deal, after he hit .243/.342/.382/724 after being released by Oakland. He also has a career 791 OPS vs. lefties since coming to the major leagues.

They paid Laureano a reported $5.1 million next year, and that makes us wonder about Myles Straw’s future. Laureano can play CF and RF, and is a good defensive outfielder. It’s hard to see Cleveland paying Straw $4.9 million (and it escalates in ’25 and ’26) and Laureano.

Just something to keep an eye on and the hot stove season moves on.

Can Guards Deal From Strength And What Would That Mean.

People say the best baseball trades come when a team is dealing from a strength. That almost certainly means if the Cleveland Guardians make a deal this winter, it will involve someone from their pitching staff, right?

We would say the offensively challenged Guards can’t move anyone who shows any talent when swinging the bat. However, Cleveland still has a glut of middle infielders, on both the big-league level and the high levels of the minor leagues.

How they rate (and how other teams rank for that matter) the talent at these positions will show everyone how they feel about these players. Unfortunately, based on how they handled the players this past season, we don’t have a lot of confidence they will do the right thing.

And by the way, that doesn’t mean we think the front office should be revamped. It does mean we hope whoever the new manager will be can change the minds of Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff.

Maybe, hopefully, the decision makers move off of the great defense above all else when it comes to the middle of the diamond and they settle for solid glovework with an ability to swing the bat a bit.

You would think that any move made to strengthen the lineup would involve a trade for a starting pitcher, but which player to move?

Many people would say to move Shane Bieber, the most accomplished of the starting rotation, but he is also a free agent after the 2024 season. How much could he bring in return? We believe it wouldn’t be as much as you might think.

Besides the contract situation, Bieber’s price could be muted by injury issues in two of the last three seasons. Although he pitched 200 innings in 2022, he threw just 97 frames in ’21 and 128 innings last season.

It’s hard to imagine he would get the kind of haul in terms of bats that the Guardians would be looking for.

We also would be very reticent to move either Tanner Bibee and/or Gavin Williams. We believe both hurlers have ace potential. Bibee made 25 starts last year, compiling a 2.98 ERA in 142 innings pitched, and maybe pitched his best in the biggest games when the team was still in the race.

Williams looks the part at 6’6″, 250 pounds and fanned 81 hitters in 82 big league innings. The walks may have been more than we would prefer, and he had periods where he may have given major league hitters more credit than they deserve.

So, the most enticing piece to move might be lefty Logan Allen (7-8, 3.81 ERA in 125.1 IP). We like Allen, but as they say, you have to give up something to get something. And if they move the southpaw, they would still have Bibee and Williams, and the durable Cal Quantrill.

We still don’t know about Triston McKenzie’s reliability because of his elbow injury. He did make two starts at the end of the year, totally six innings. He did walk nine hitters in those two starts. Hopefully, he can be a fixture in next year’s rotation, but we can’t feel confident in him being available for all of 2024 right now.

Trading Allen would mean someone would have to emerge from the minors, perhaps Joey Cantillo or Hunter Gaddis to fill out the rotation.

And even if they got a bat in return for a pitcher and Kyle Manzardo hits like projected, the Guardians probably still need another bat to have a very good offense.

How Does Rotation Check Out For Guardians in ’24?

Most of the focus in looking forward to 2024 for the Cleveland Guardians has centered around improving the hitting and rightly so. It is well documented that the Guards are 12th in the American League in runs scored, and make no mistake, in the regular season, if you can’t score you don’t win.

Of the teams scoring above the league average in runs per game, only the Red Sox and Angels are below the .500 mark. You have to put runs on the board.

But what about the pitching, which for years has been the strength of the Guardians’ franchise. The organization likes to refer to the “pitching factory”.

(Our comment has been to ask when the “hitting factory” will be built, and we get that is being snarky).

With the injuries to Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill this season, a new core of young pitchers has emerged. Tanner Bibee (10-4, 2.98 ERA with 141 strikeouts in 142 innings), Gavin Williams (3-5, 3.29 ERA, 81 Ks in 82 IP), and Logan Allen (7-7, 3.60 ERA, 118 Ks in 122.1 IP) have certainly earned spots in next season’s rotation.

The biggest question mark has to be the health of McKenzie, who has made just two starts this season and with a strained ligament in his elbow, it wouldn’t be a shock if Tommy John surgery is in his future and that would put him out for the season.

That brings us to Bieber, who has missed significant parts of the season in two of the last three seasons and will be a free agent following the ’24 season. He isn’t the guy who won the Cy Young Award in 2020, but he still is a quality starter. Would he be interested in a short-term extension because of the injuries?

And you have Quantrill, who’s last three starts since coming back from a shoulder issue have been very good. Many people complain about him, but really, if he’s your fifth starter, you have a pretty solid rotation.

And you still have Hunter Gaddis, Xzavion Curry, and southpaw Joey Cantillo (6-4, 4.09 ERA, 142 Ks in 114 IP, but with 63 walks at AAA and AA this season).

Rotation depth is needed as we saw with the club this season.

It is doubtful that Cleveland can put together a package for Lucas Giolito this winter that would satisfy him and his agent this winter, so we would consider that a longshot.

But if the front office is doing their job (and we have confidence) they have to figure one of the young trio will fall off a bit from outstanding rookie seasons.

We would also consider moving Eli Morgan back into a starting role. Morgan had a 3.45 ERA in the second half of 2021 as a starter, striking out 49 hitters in 44.1 innings. We would do this because Morgan gives up too many long balls to flourish in the bullpen.

If Bieber is dealt and McKenzie cannot pitch in ’24, the front office will have to explore other options for the rotation, perhaps a large one-year contract for Giolito or rolling the dice with Gaddis, Curry, and Morgan.

The starting rotation is easily the strength of the team, but the organization cannot get complacent.

And remember one thing Terry Francona has always said: When you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more.

Inconsistent Guardians’ Bullpen Makes Everyone Worried

Show me a bad bullpen and I’ll show you a bad team. That’s the old baseball adage. We would guess the corollary to that would be, show me an inconsistent bullpen and I’ll show you an inconsistent team.

Which brings us to the Cleveland Guardians.

The other day, Terry Francona said his bullpen had gone through a rough patch over the last week. We hope that manager speak, because the truth is the Guardians’ relievers have been hit or miss for about the last month.

The organization will tell you the bullpen ERA ranks second in all of baseball, and it does, ranking behind only the Yankees with a 3.48 ERA.

Detractors will tell you the relief corps is gassed, but they rank 18th in the majors in innings pitched.

They do have the 4th best batting average against at .223.

There are two issues at work here. The first is because the Guardians are currently leaning on four rookie starters, Francona and pitching coach Carl Willis are leaning on the relievers quite a bit. Having the cover sometimes four or even five innings, not only put a great burden on the crew, but also the more relievers used, the greater chance one of them doesn’t have it that night.

The second thing is Francona, like most managers, likes to have a pecking order with his relievers, so they know when they can expect to get into a game.

We know Emmanuel Clase has the ninth, but he would like to have one or two pitchers who know they will go in the 8th, and so on down the line.

It hasn’t worked that way lately.

Trevor Stephan is the preferred guy to pitch the 8th, but since June 1st, he’s been in 19 games, and allowed runs in six of them. He also has pitched just six innings where he has retired the side in order.

Last Sunday, he came into a game with a three-run lead, and after retiring the first hitter, he walked the next two. That led to a four-run inning, and an eventual loss for Cleveland.

By the way, we have (and most people have) two rules for relief pitchers: Don’t walk hitters and don’t allow the long ball.

Friday night was the kind of thing that makes you wonder how you can figure this game out.

After Gavin Williams had to leave after four innings, Eli Morgan pitched the fifth and faced two batters in the 6th, allowing a single to one of them.

The Guards went to Tim Herrin, a lefty, because Sam Hentges has been scuffling lately, and Herrin over the last month had pitched 8.2 innings, allowing just two runs, striking out 10 and walking just two.

The rookie walked the next three hitters, forcing in a run.

So, Francona went to Nick Sandlin, who got out of the inning. Sandlin over the last month had fired 9.1 frames allowing just one run, and fanning 13, walking just three.

He gave up two homers in the 7th. They were the first he’d allowed since June 17th.

Stephan relieved and you could feel fans wincing at the move.

He put down all five batters he faced.

The point is right now, the Guardians really need the bullpen crew to step up because of the inning restrictions put on the rookie starters, but Francona can’t feel too confident in bringing anyone in, because he just doesn’t know what will happen.

If this is a slump, eventually everyone will return to form and Cleveland’s bullpen will be one of the best in the game. If they continue to fail, then the season could go south in a hurry.

It’s not easy at times to manage a major league baseball team.

Hopefully Bieber Injury Doesn’t Deter Moves At Deadline

The Cleveland Guardians didn’t exactly provide a lot of good news for their fans coming out of the All-Star break.

First came the news that Shane Bieber is experiencing some soreness in his right forearm and was placed on the injured list yesterday. At the very least, the former Cy Young Award winner will miss two starts.

And then the bullpen was mollywhopped by Texas in the opening game of the three game series after Aaron Civale gave Cleveland five innings. The curious thing was he was removed after throwing just 79 pitches.

The bigger news is Bieber, obviously, since the rotation is already without Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill. Yes, the rookies, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen have done yeoman’s work so far this season, but as everyone reminds us, they will all be on innings restrictions this season.

We know many people will say this is a sign that the team should be sellers at the upcoming trade deadline, but isn’t the biggest potential trade chip the Guardians have Bieber?

Our fear is that Bieber’s injury will prevent the front office from making a move to help this year’s team, which is still just a game and a half out of first place in the AL Central Division.

Standing pat would be a terrible idea.

First, and this has nothing to do with the team on the field, but attendance is up at Progressive Field, and we fear doing nothing to improve the roster will damper any excitement created during the year.

The other issue is the organization’s bloated situation in the middle infield. Cleveland continues to use free agent to be Amed Rosario at shortstop, with Tyler Freeman and Gabriel Arias still on the big league roster and Brayan Rocchio in AAA.

They haven’t really found out much about any of those players, with perhaps the exception of Arias, who has a whopping total of 154 plate appearances this season. By the way, we agree that’s not enough.

At some point, they have to convert some of these players into pieces that can help the big club win some games.

Down three starters, why not move some pieces for a pitcher who can provide some quality innings down the stretch. They could use that even if Bieber is going to be back sooner than later.

A year ago, the Guardians had one of the top farm systems in baseball, but outside of last year’s first round pick OF Chase DeLauter and Rocchio, most of their prize prospects have graduated.

Southpaw Joey Cantillo is another top prospect, and he may be here soon if the injuries on the staff continue.

In the past week, Baseball Prospectus put out their mid-season top 50 prospects plus 10 other players. No Guardian was listed. Last season, the same publication had four Cleveland farmhands listed, including Bibee and Williams. Daniel Espino and George Valera were the others.

Prospects lose their value quickly in baseball. Valera was looked upon as a big time power bat, and he still may be, but he’s hitting .187 (545 OPS) at AAA, and in his time at the highest level of the minors over the past two seasons, his OPS is 698.

The next two weeks before the trade deadline will be key. If the Guardians continue to hang in the divisional race, will the front office help out the current roster?

Or will they point toward 2024. We aren’t asking the organization to move players like Williams, Bibee, and Allen. But they have some assets they can move. Now is the time.

Trading Bieber Might Be Inevitable, But There Are Consequences.

In a recent edition of The Plain Dealer, Terry Pluto wrote about why the Guardians need to trade pitcher Shane Bieber.

We understand that Pluto has good sources within the organization and when he writes about something, there is a pretty good likelihood that it is going to happen.

However, we could not disagree more with a Bieber deal unless one thing comes back in return, or is acquired in a separate deal, and that is a veteran starting pitcher to replace the former Cy Young Award winner.

We understand Bieber is not going to sign a long term contract here, so from that standpoint, the Guardians should not lose him in free agency, so a trade will be coming. We simply would wait until the off-season.

As we write this, the Cleveland Guardians lead the American League Central Division standings by a half game and despite all the jokes about the division, they are only 3-1/2 games out of a wild card spot.

It is pretty cavalier of an organization who hasn’t won a World Series in 75 years to toss away a chance to get in the playoffs, which they would likely be doing unless they don’t get another starter to replace their ace.

Cleveland is currently down two starters in Triston McKenzie (elbow) and Cal Quantrill (shoulder) and have three rookies in the rotation that they are managing innings with: Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams.

Bibee pitched 132 innings last year in A/AA, so conventional wisdom says the front office would like to keep him around 152 this year. He’s at 85. Allen threw the same number last season, and he’s currently at 79 in ’23.

Williams pitched 115 innings in 2022, so his limit is probably around 135 and he’s thrown 79 to date this season.

By the way, Bieber is currently third in the AL in innings pitched and by the time he is done pitching today, he will either be second or first. And the Guardians need someone to soak up innings.

Despite complaints about reduced velocity, Bieber is still a pretty effective starting pitcher. He’s allowed just 104 hits in the 110.1 innings he has thrown and has fanned 89 batters vs. just 33 walks. His ERA is 3.66.

If they don’t get a proven starter in another trade or one in a deal involving Bieber, just who is going to pitch for the Guardians after they trade him? Oh yes, they could also bring up another rookie in Joey Cantillo, who is pitching in the Futures Game this weekend, but he would be under the same innings restrictions.

And does anyone really want to see Daniel Norris taking the mound every fifth day for a team trying to get a post-season berth?

One issue though, Cleveland hasn’t traded for an established starting pitcher since Derek Lowe in 2012.

Unless this is going to be a move, like the trades of Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger, where the Guardians are going to kick the can down the road again. Besides the 75 years without a title thing, it’s a bold strategy for a team that won 92 games a year ago and their best player, who committed to the franchise, is 30 years old.

Another factor is how it plays in the clubhouse if they trade their best pitcher and don’t replace him. At some point, it has to wear on players when the front office keeps pointing toward next season.

That’s only if they don’t get someone who can be a relative facsimile of Bieber in terms of pitching a lot of effective innings. We know trading Bieber at some point is inevitable, but doing it while the Guardians very much have a chance to make the post-season seems to ring hollow to us.