Most of the focus in looking forward to 2024 for the Cleveland Guardians has centered around improving the hitting and rightly so. It is well documented that the Guards are 12th in the American League in runs scored, and make no mistake, in the regular season, if you can’t score you don’t win.
Of the teams scoring above the league average in runs per game, only the Red Sox and Angels are below the .500 mark. You have to put runs on the board.
But what about the pitching, which for years has been the strength of the Guardians’ franchise. The organization likes to refer to the “pitching factory”.
(Our comment has been to ask when the “hitting factory” will be built, and we get that is being snarky).
With the injuries to Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill this season, a new core of young pitchers has emerged. Tanner Bibee (10-4, 2.98 ERA with 141 strikeouts in 142 innings), Gavin Williams (3-5, 3.29 ERA, 81 Ks in 82 IP), and Logan Allen (7-7, 3.60 ERA, 118 Ks in 122.1 IP) have certainly earned spots in next season’s rotation.
The biggest question mark has to be the health of McKenzie, who has made just two starts this season and with a strained ligament in his elbow, it wouldn’t be a shock if Tommy John surgery is in his future and that would put him out for the season.
That brings us to Bieber, who has missed significant parts of the season in two of the last three seasons and will be a free agent following the ’24 season. He isn’t the guy who won the Cy Young Award in 2020, but he still is a quality starter. Would he be interested in a short-term extension because of the injuries?
And you have Quantrill, who’s last three starts since coming back from a shoulder issue have been very good. Many people complain about him, but really, if he’s your fifth starter, you have a pretty solid rotation.
And you still have Hunter Gaddis, Xzavion Curry, and southpaw Joey Cantillo (6-4, 4.09 ERA, 142 Ks in 114 IP, but with 63 walks at AAA and AA this season).
Rotation depth is needed as we saw with the club this season.
It is doubtful that Cleveland can put together a package for Lucas Giolito this winter that would satisfy him and his agent this winter, so we would consider that a longshot.
But if the front office is doing their job (and we have confidence) they have to figure one of the young trio will fall off a bit from outstanding rookie seasons.
We would also consider moving Eli Morgan back into a starting role. Morgan had a 3.45 ERA in the second half of 2021 as a starter, striking out 49 hitters in 44.1 innings. We would do this because Morgan gives up too many long balls to flourish in the bullpen.
If Bieber is dealt and McKenzie cannot pitch in ’24, the front office will have to explore other options for the rotation, perhaps a large one-year contract for Giolito or rolling the dice with Gaddis, Curry, and Morgan.
The starting rotation is easily the strength of the team, but the organization cannot get complacent.
And remember one thing Terry Francona has always said: When you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more.
Cleveland Sports Perspective 