Why Guards Aren’t Dealing Prospects
The Cleveland Guardians won the American League Central Division title last
season, winning 92 games.
The Cleveland Guardians also have one of the top five farm systems in
baseball.
Outside of trading Nolan Jones, who probably was no longer one of the
system’s top ten prospects, and moving Owen Miller, who spent the entire season
on the big-league roster, the Guards haven’t addressed the seeming glut of
prospects about to hit Cleveland.
It seems that many teams when in the situation the Guardians are in, like to
package a number of prospects to get proven big-league talent. Think about what
San Diego has done over the past few years.
Unfortunately for the Padres, their excessive prospects are having success,
but here in Cleveland.
Let’s examine the top five prospects in the Guards’ system: pitchers Daniel
Espino and Gavin Williams, catcher Bo Naylor, OF George Valera, and SS Brayan
Rocchio.
Espino, a right-hander and Cleveland’s first round pick in 2019, was injured
much of last season throwing only 19 innings, albeit dominating one, fanning 35
hitters. Williams, another righty and also a first rounder in 2021, appears to
be the definition of a horse at 6’6″ and 240 pounds.
He pitched 115 innings at Lake County and Akron, with a 1.96 ERA and 149
punchouts.
Now, the big-league situation comes into play. Shane Bieber, the ace of the
staff, is scheduled to be a free agent after the 2024 season. After winning the
division, the Guardians aren’t trading him this off-season, but with the
dollars spent this winter, it isn’t a reach to see Bieber being moved next
winter.
It would seem Espino and Williams would be ready then.
If Bieber agreed to an extension with the Guardians, maybe the front office
would entertain a deal for their top two prospects. We wouldn’t unless the
return was substantial.
We would be surprised if Naylor opened the season on the big club, but we
won’t be shocked if he’s getting regular playing time by the beginning of June.
He is the catcher of the future.
We feel the same about Rocchio being the shortstop of the future, the heir
apparent to Amed Rosario. We believe the organization likes him better than
Gabriel Arias or Tyler Freeman, who will likely battle in spring to see who is
the reserve infielder.
We have been hearing about Valera for years. A left-handed hitter, he has
plus power, and has always shown patience at the plate. However, in 2021
between Lake County and Akron, he fanned 88 times with 66 walks. In ’22, with
more at bats between Akron and Columbus, he whiffed 145 times with 74 walks.
Not bad, but the ratio is much worse.
That would make him the most likely candidate to be moved in a trade for
big-league talent. The front office is gambling he will make adjustments and
take some of the swing-and-miss out of his game, because if the ratio gets
worse, so will his ranking as a prospect.
Prospects #6 through #10 are: Pitchers Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee, SS
Angel Martinez, OF Chase DeLauter, and OF Will Brennan.
It’s more likely the Guards would trade someone from this list, but DeLauter
hasn’t even played a professional game yet, and Brennan would seem to be
insurance for the big club in the outfield.
We are firmly NOT in the mindset that all prospects will turn out to be the
next Mike Trout. We are just trying to explain what we think is the front
office’s reasoning for not packaging a couple of these guys.
How many players on the division winners have proven track records? It’s
fewer than you think.
Perhaps that’s why no deals as of yet.