Why Tribe Can’t Stand Pat

The second half of the baseball season starts tomorrow night, and the Cleveland Indians are in good position to make the playoffs.

They have a 6-1/2 game lead in the American League Central Division and after they return from the trip they start tomorrow, they will play 39 of their last 65 contests at Progressive Field.

So, the question is does the Tribe need to make a move before the July 31st trading deadline?  After all, they lead the AL in ERA and rank third in the league in runs scored per game.

Don’t they have enough on the current roster to win the division?  Isn’t Michael Brantley getting ready to come back, giving the team an added bat?

The reason is simply this…president Chris Antonetti, GM Mike Chernoff, and skipper Terry Francona cannot assume that everything that went well in the first half is going to continue after the All Star break.

Jose Ramirez has been arguably the team’s most valuable player in the first half, filling in for Brantley and hitting .295 with a 769 OPS.  His prior career high in these categories is .262 with a 646 OPS.

Now, Ramirez is just 23 years old and is improving day by day as he should be, but what if he wears down because this is the most he’s played at the big league level?

Tyler Naquin was a solid hitter in the minors, but what he has done at the big league level is eye popping.  He has a 965 OPS and 21 extra base hits in 159 at bats.  Even the most ardent supporter of the rookie can’t think that’s going to continue.

Lonnie Chisenhall is 27 years old now and should be entering the prime of his career.  He entered the break hitting .299 with a 819 OPS, both highs for his time in the bigs.

He has had hot streaks like this before, though.  In 2014, Chisenhall was hitting .332 with 9 HR and 41 RBI in the first half of the year.  After that, he hit .218 with an OPS of 591.

You have to have an alternative if this happens again.  We aren’t saying it will, but you have to be ready.

Rajai Davis (35 years old) and Mike Napoli (34) have been huge for the Indians in the first half, but Francona has leaned on them a lot, probably more than he planned going into the season, but Brantley’s injury and the suspensions of Abraham Almonte and Marlon Byrd changed those plans.

The front office has to be prepared for a possible fall off in production from that duo.

And while Brantley should be back by at latest the beginning of August, there is no telling if he will hit like the guy who finished 3rd in the MVP voting in 2014.  There may be a period of adjustment or he may wind up being 75%.  Still a solid player, but not producing like normal.

Look, we aren’t saying all of these players will decline in the second half, but a good front office has to anticipate that things will go wrong.  Getting another bat will allow Francona to give some players a rest and that player could be plugged in if someone regresses after the break.

And it never hurts to upgrade your bullpen, but that has been addressed before.

Yes, the Indians have good chemistry and have a very good team.  However, you can still make it better.

The Tribe needs to do everything it can to win the division and avoid the dreaded, one game wild card playoff.

That’s why you make a move.  It may just put you in the World Series.

MW

Tribe Not A Secret In Cleveland Anymore

The Cleveland Indians will hit the halfway point of the 2016 Major League Baseball season today in Toronto on pace for either 98 or 100 wins for the year.

And although we did predict them to win the American League Central Division title, even we didn’t think they would be this good.

Moreover, the Tribe’s club record 14 game winning streak has not only drawn attention to them nationally, but also within northeast Ohio, where they were becoming an afterthought to the Browns and the world champion Cavaliers.

We were at the Hard Rock Casino Friday evening, and when Francisco Lindor fielded the last grounder in the bottom of the 19th inning and threw to first for the out, a cheer went up throughout the venue.

Yes, people in this area are excited about the Indians.

While everyone figured the pitching staff would perform well, and it has, ranking 1st in the AL in ERA by a pretty good margin, the Indians have also scored a lot of runs, 6th in the Junior Circuit in scoring per game.

How?  That’s a mystery based on the other offensive stats.

Cleveland is 10th in on base percentage, 6th in slugging, and 6th in OPS. They are 8th in batting average.

They have used their speed though, leading the league in stolen bases and triples.

They also have the most sacrifice flies and the fourth least runners left on base, meaning they have made the most of their opportunities to score runs.

That’s something you have to wonder will hold up in the second half, and that’s why many experts think the Indians need to get another hitter at the trade deadline.

While that would be nice, the back end of the bullpen is a concern too.

Bryan Shaw has been in 37 games and Cody Allen in 34.  The next most games appeared in by a Cleveland reliever is 28 by Zack McAllister.

It is obvious that Terry Francona only has confidence in the first two pitchers listed and both of those guys have flaws.

Shaw is prone to giving up long balls (7 homers in 31-2/3 innings), and Allen has control issues (17 walks in 34 innings).

For those who say it is not a big deal, bringing Bryan Shaw into a one run game is a nail biter. He gives up a dinger, and it’s a tie game.

As for Allen, the walks mean he pitches himself into trouble more than he should.  That’s something you can’t have in a pennant race or in the playoffs.

McAllister has been a disaster recently, so much so that Francona doesn’t use him in high leverage situations anymore.  He can’t throw anything but a fastball for a strike.  We know it, and so do big league hitters.  There is no reason to look for anything but a heater facing the big right-hander.

We would start using Dan Otero and/or Joba Chamberlain with more regularity in close games to see if they can handle the load.  But, we all know about Tito’s loyalty to those who have performed in the past.

Making a move for top flight relief pitcher would enable Allen to pitch the eighth inning and leave the 7th for Shaw.

The Tribe doesn’t need to shorten games like Kansas City because their starters are much better than the Royals, but it would make the bullpen as lethal of a weapon as the rotation.

The front office is anticipating large crowds during this week’s homestand after a 22-6 record in June and a six game lead in the division.

Who knew that winning would be the best marketing plan?

And don’t forget that after the convention leaves town, the Indians will be home for long stretches in August and September.  The way the Tribe plays at Progressive Field this season, that’s a huge advantage.

But the front office can’t stand pat, and we don’t think they will.  They know this is one of baseball’s best team this season.

MW

Right Now? No Complaints

The month of June was certainly a wonderful month for the city of Cleveland.

The Cleveland Cavaliers broke the 52 year drought for the city without a major league sports championship.  The whole area partied like never before, and citizens still have a collective smile on their face that may not be wiped off for a long time.

Or at least until the Browns start playing.

And the Indians have gone 21-6 during the month, and currently are riding a 12 game winning streak, one game away from tying the franchise record.

They have stamped themselves as one of the best teams in the American League.

So, right now, there is nothing to complain about with the Cleveland sports scene, and if you can come up with something, you are probably nit-picking.

Sure, some people continue to bring up the Cavaliers possibly trading Kevin Love, but that seems to be more about those people not understanding that Love has sacrificed his scoring for the good of the team.

Also, if you are going to move Love, don’t you have to get somebody better than him?  We understand the usual mentality here is a bunch of average players is greater than one all-star player, but for the most part, the players who are better than Kevin Love in the NBA, aren’t being traded by their teams.

There isn’t even any angst about LeBron James leaving the Cavs after opting out of his contract this week. James has publicly stated he is returning to defend the championship, and his agent told people a year ago that he would be opting out of his contracts in 2015 and 2016 to maximize his earning capabilities.

We feel confident also, that the front office will do everything it can do to keep JR Smith on the roster, and Matthew Dellavedova too, unless another team breaks the bank for him.

Do we have concerns about the Indians’ bullpen?  Yes, but we’ve discussed this before and with the starting pitchers giving Terry Francona at least seven innings on most nights recently, it’s become less of a factor.

Dead roster spots for the Tribe?  Outside of Tito’s obsession with having eight relievers, many of whom sit around in the bullpen eating sunflower seeds, getting paid to watch games, you really can’t complain about someone being on the roster who shouldn’t be.

The club’s 25th man, Michael Martinez, has proved very useful and has actually mixed in some key hits and supplied good defense at several positions.  He’s a lifetime .200 hitter, but is hitting .290 with the Indians in limited at bats.

The Browns are a month away from opening training camp and OTA’s are over, so there isn’t anything to worry about there for the time being.  Hue Jackson seems to be giving young players, who Mike Pettine seemed to ignore, a new life.

There actually seems like the new front office has a plan in place to get better using young guys, instead of mixing in fading veterans in an attempt to win a few games to stay relevant into November.

It’s good to be a Cleveland sports fan right now.  Today.

We are sure something will irritate us soon.  That’s the nature of sports.

KM

 

 

Tito: Loyal Or Stubborn?

Terry Francona’s resume is outstanding to say the least.  He has won two World Series titles as a manager with the Boston Red Sox, and heck, he was at the helm when the Sox broke the “Curse of the Bambino”.

He’s won 1322 games in the major leagues, and has produced an above .500 record for 11 consecutive seasons.

He is also the most successful manager of the Cleveland Indians since the Tribe’s halcyon days from 1994-2001.

There is one thing he isn’t, however.  He’s not infallible.

Look, we like Tito.  He does a tremendous job doing the most difficult thing a big league manager has to do, handling a bunch of successful athletes’ personalities, and making sure the ballclub plays hard everyday.

However, the thing that endears the players to Francona may also be his biggest weakness as a manager:  Loyalty.

If you have performed well at the big league level at one time, and better yet, if you done a good job for Francona at one time, you are like a made man.

You have earned Tito’s trust, and he will defend you to the hilt.

Bryan Shaw is the latest case study of Francona’s support system.

Shaw has been a very good set up man for the Indians since arriving in 2013, the same year Tito was hired as manager.  He appeared in over 70 games in each of those seasons, including a league leading 80 appearances in 2014.

Unfortunately, last August, all those games pitched started to take it’s toll on the right-hander.  During the last two months of the ’15 season, Shaw gave up a run for every two innings he threw, and started giving up homers, four in that time span.

That was the same number he allowed the rest of the season.

This year, Shaw’s ERA is north of 5.00 and he’s allowed seven homers to this point in the season.  That’s one shy of his career high, set last year.

It’s time to find someone else to pitch the eighth inning.

Now, privately, Francona may have told Shaw the same thing, and Tito will never speak to the media about something like this, nor should he.

However, the next time the Indians play a close game and it gets to the 8th inning, who will Francona turn to?  If he goes to Shaw, his loyalty is getting in the way of winning ball games.

The same is true at third base, although this might be an organizational decision.

Juan Uribe is 37-years-old and his OPS is 575.  He simply isn’t producing at the plate, and his WAR is the lowest on the team among position players.

To be fair, some of this may not be Uribe’s fault.  He should be a part-time player and he is being forced to play regularly.  But Francona keeps writing his name in the lineup.

Some of that may be Tito’s obsession with having eight relief pitchers, which limits the number of position players he has on the roster.  The Tribe usually carries just three extra players on their bench.

The problem is the skipper only uses certain pitchers when he has a lead, and for most of the year those guys have been Zack McAllister, Shaw, and closer Cody Allen.

So, some of those guys in the bullpen can go several days without being used.  Allen pitched the eighth yesterday because he hasn’t pitched in awhile.

Since the Tribe starters have been pretty good about giving the team some length, do the Indians really need eight relievers at the expense of an extra position player?

Again, Francona is a very successful major league manager without a doubt, and no one here is advocating for a change.

However, he’s not perfect.  There is a thin line between patience and stubbornness.  Terry Francona skirts that line a lot.

KM

 

Youth Is Served: Lindor, Ramirez Are Pacing Tribe Attack

The Cleveland Indians completed the first third of its schedule last night with a 7-1 victory over the Kansas City Royals.

It gave the Tribe their 30th win of the season, putting them on a pace to win 90 games this season.  We would say that would give them a pretty good shot at their first playoff appearance since 2013.

Terry Francona’s club does have the third best ERA in the American League, which is kind of expected because this squad is built around their pitching staff, particularly the starting rotation.

The surprise is the Indians rank 4th in the AL in runs scored per game, and they have done it without Michael Brantley, who has played just 11 games this season.

Despite the veteran acquisitions over the winter, signing Mike Napoli, Rajai Davis, and Juan Uribe, the offense is being led by two kids, 22-year-old Francisco Lindor, and 23-year-old Jose Ramirez.

This is not to minimize Napoli’s presence in the middle of the order.  He is on pace to belt 30 home runs and knock in over 100, something the Tribe has lack since the days of Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez.

And by the way, Napoli has more RBIs right now than the man everyone wanted the Indians to trade for in the off-season, the White Sox’ Todd Frazier.

But we digress.

It was expected that Lindor would be a key to the 2016 Indians, but most people figured he would have a slight decline offensively, since his big league numbers far exceeded his hitting stats in the minors.

We have been preaching about how special the shortstop is since his minor league days, and it appears he is one of those athletes who gets better when the lights are brighter.

The switch-hitter is batting .308 (804 OPS) with 5 HRs and 26 RBI and it seems he provides a sparkling defensive play each and every night.  And his enthusiasm for the game is contagious.

Even at 22, he is an unquestioned leader on this ballclub.

He has now played 152 games at the big league level and has a .311 batting average, with 17 HR and 77 RBI (824 OPS).

And he should get even better.

The folks in the front office at Carnegie and Ontario should be thinking of tying his guy up for a long, long time, because his price tag goes up each and every day.

Ramirez is the bigger surprise, since he figured to be a utility player once the regular season started.  The injury to Brantley put him in an everyday role, and he has flourished.

Also, a switch-hitter, JRam struggled last year playing shortstop, which is not his natural position.  He was hitting under .200 and not making the routine plays defensively.

This year, he has made the step up, playing everyday at either LF or 3B, he’s hitting .317 with an 846 OPS, and is among the top ten in the AL in on base percentage at .387.

And at 23, you have to figure he will get better as well.

This isn’t to minimize others contributions to the Indians’ early success.  Josh Tomlin is 8-1, Danny Salazar has become one of the AL’s best starters, we have talked about Napoli, and Jason Kipnis has played, like, well, Jason Kipnis.

The catalysts, at least offensively, have been Lindor and Ramirez.

And with guys like Bradley Zimmer, Clint Frazier (hitting over .300 in the pitching rich Eastern League), Giovanny Urshela, Mike Clevinger, etc., the Cleveland Indians are poised to make some noise in the American League.

That includes this season.

MW

Tribe In First, But Bullpen Is A Concern.

It is Memorial Day weekend, the quarter pole for the major league baseball season, and the Cleveland Indians sit in first place in the American League Central Division standings.

They are also just two games away from having the best mark in the AL, as the Seattle Mariners, who have the junior circuit’s top record, are at 28-19.

Terry Francona’s club has done this pretty much without Michael Brantley, who has played just 11 games, and with Carlos Carrasco, arguably the Tribe’s best pitcher, out for a month.

Cleveland ranks 2nd in the league in runs scored, and is fifth in the AL in ERA.  This means there hasn’t been any luck involved, the Indians are a legitimate contender, just as we thought before the season started.

The biggest area of concern (yes, social media folks, you can be supportive of the team and have concerns) is the bullpen, particularly the Tribe’s set up guys, Zack McAllister and Bryan Shaw.

Cody Allen has had outings that make us nervous too, but mostly because he loses the strike zone at times.  He is 11 for 11 in save opportunities.

First, McAllister.  Before yesterday’s mop up appearance with a six run lead in Baltimore, the big right-hander allowed runs in each of his last three appearances.  And in May, he has come into the game 10 times, and allowed a run in five of those games.

That’s 50% for you sabermetric guys.  Also, that’s not good.

He made 11 appearances in April, and allowed a run in just one game.

Shaw has been one of the American League’s best late inning guys over the past three seasons.

He is like the proverbial little girl with the curl, when he is good, he is very good, but when he’s not…aye, aye, aye.

First, we don’t like relievers who allow home runs.  Shaw has allowed five dingers in 20 innings of work this season.

If he keeps the ball in the yard, Shaw is tremendous.  He’s only had one game this year where he allowed a run without giving up a bomb (April 24th vs. Detroit).

In our opinion, he allows too many homers to be an elite set up man.

Only five AL relievers have allowed more long balls than Shaw this season, and three of them (Steve Geltz, TB, Shawn Tolleson, TEX, and Tom Wilhelmsen, TEX) have been sent to the minor leagues.

A fourth, Chasen Shreve of the Yankees, is on the disabled list.

Shaw gives up too many homers. Remember, he gave up 8 last season in 64 innings.  Francona needs a better option in a one or two run game.

The Tribe has lost 21 games this season. In six of those losses, they have had the lead or were tied after six innings.  In two other games, they rallied to tie up a game, only to lose on a walk off hit.

That’s eight late game losses.  Give the Indians a split in those games, and they sit at 30-17 and have the AL’s best record.

We hope the front office is out there trying to upgrade this part of the the team.

In the meantime, it wouldn’t kill Francona to try some other options late in games.  Perhaps Dan Otero (0.95 ERA in 19 innings–no HR allowed) or Austin Adams, who pitched three scoreless games since his recall.

We know Tito likes to give veterans the benefit of the doubt, but we believe the American League will be so tightly contested this season, that a couple of games could be the difference in making the playoffs or going home after game 162.

MW

 

Is The Tribe Bullpen A Liability?

Before the season started, and we predicted an AL Central Division title for the Cleveland Indians, one of our reservations was the bullpen.

Was it good enough to put the Tribe over the top.

Watching the games unfold, the relief corps has sprung its share of leaks.

Early in the year, Bryan Shaw was knocked around like a pinata, and you had to wonder if the heavy workload he has had over the past three seasons had caught up to him.

Cody Allen gave up two walkoff wins in one week, a seven day span that saw Cleveland lose five contests in a six game span by a single tally.

Now, Shaw and Allen seem to have returned to their norm and Zack McAllister, the other reliever Terry Francona has entrusted in the late innings is scuffling.

Our thought was the Cleveland bullpen walks too many hitters and gives up too many home runs.

Looking at statistics, that really isn’t the case.

The Tribe ‘pen has allowed 13 dingers to date, but that ranks 18th in the major leagues.  As we have seen, the Cincinnati Reds lead in this dubious stat, giving up an unbelievable 33 circuit clouts to date.

Cleveland’s total is less than the vaunted Yankee bullpen, but the relief corps allowing the least bombs are the Mets and White Sox (each seven), while the Giants, Nationals, Orioles, Royals, Dodgers, and Red Sox have allowed nine.

A year ago, Tribe relievers allowed the fewest homers in the American League.

In terms of walks, the Indians’ relievers have allowed the 14th most walks (48).  Again, Cincinnati’s gang of gas cans have walked a whopping 85 hitters thus far.

The five bullpens allowing the fewest free passes are Houston, the Yankees, Washington, Toronto, and Detroit.

The Indians were tied for 5th in all of baseball last season in allowing walks.

The Tribe’s bullpen is also 14th in ERA and 20th in strikeouts.

So, although there are far worse bullpens in the big leagues, there is also no doubt Cleveland’s relievers are not performing up to the standards of last season.  There has been a regression.

Francona’s plan in close games in to use McAllister in the 7th, Shaw in the 8th, and Allen in the 9th.  Do you know how many times he has used them that way and all three gave him a scoreless inning?

Once, on April 6th, the second game of the season and the Tribe’s first win.  It hasn’t happened since.

McAllister has allowed 14 hits and struck out 16 batters in 14-2/3 innings, but he’s walked six hitters.

Shaw has given up 15 hits and fanned 19 batters in his 17 frames, but he has walked seven and allowed four homers.

Allen has allowed a scant 12 hits in 18-2/3 innings striking out 20, but he’s given 11 free passes and served up three bombs.

And Jeff Manship seems to be regressing to his career norm (5.20 ERA), giving up 14 hits and six bases on balls in 11-2/3 innings.

Perhaps it is time to give Joba Chamberlain (0.66 ERA), Tommy Hunter, and Dan Otero, who saved last night’s win some chances in higher leverage situations.

The margin for error in the American League is very slim because there aren’t any dominant teams, nor are there any bad squads.

Getting the bullpen back to the level of the last couple of years could be what puts the Indians ahead of the pack in the Central Division.

KM

 

Why Tribe Will Win The Central

All winter long, we have been critical of the off-season for the Cleveland Indians’ front office.

They did make a lot of sound, solid moves, but we questioned whether or not they did enough to get the squad back to a win total in the upper 80’s or low 90’s, so they could return to the post-season.

After careful consideration, we think they have and Terry Francona’s crew will win the AL Central Division in 2016.

By the way, we aren’t homers and don’t predict the Indians to win every year either.  We think the last time we did make that pick, it was 2007-08.

Certainly, we know the Indians have the starting pitching to do it, perhaps the best rotation in the American League, and maybe in the sport when you figure the lack of DH in the National League, and that the AL is better overall.

The rotation is strong enough that a pitcher who threw 176 innings for the Tribe a year ago, Trevor Bauer, will apparently start the ’16 season in the bullpen.

And T.J. House, a big factor in 2014 and a very good prospect, Mike Clevenger, will open the season in Columbus.

We all know the key for the Indians in 2016 is the hitting, can they score enough runs to avoid losing a bunch of games because they score three runs or less, which they did in half of their games a year ago.

It is ridiculous to think Francisco Lindor will hit .313 as he did in 99 games a year ago, but if he hits .270, that’s an improvement over what the Tribe got from the spot in the first half of the ’15 campaign.

Team president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff appear to have taken some dead spots in the lineup from a year ago, and have put players who should be able to help at the plate in their places.

While we like Giovanny Urshela’s potential, the fact remains last year he had a 608 OPS, way below average.  This year, Juan Uribe, who had a 737 OPS will be the primary third baseman, with Jose Ramirez, who we think will breakout this season, getting time there as well.

And if Uribe doesn’t hit (he is 37 years old), Urshela had a solid spring at the plate and should improve on his offensive ability.

Tyler Naquin and Rajai Davis should do better than what Michael Bourn gave Cleveland until he was dealt to Atlanta in late July, and the platoon of Lonnie Chisenhall and another vet, Marlon Byrd should do better than the Brandon Moss/David Murphy/Jerry Sands trio in RF.

And we believe that Mike Napoli will be the best of the veterans the front office brought in this winter, and Yan Gomes is ready to pick up where he left off in 2014, before being hampered by injuries.

Those additions will augment Michael Brantley, who hopefully will be back by the end of April, and Jason Kipnis at the plate

The only concern we have is in the bullpen.

Cody Allen should be fine, but we worry about Bryan Shaw and wonder if the heavy workload finally catches up with him.

We also worry about Jeff Manship, because let’s face it, in his seven years in the big leagues, he’s had three good months, the second half of last season.

On the other hand, the Tribe has depth in the organization with bullpen arms.  Shawn Armstrong and Austin Adams are ready to contribute if someone fails.

Lastly, there’s the Francona factor. Although we may disagree with him strategically at times, he knows how to use each player to the greatest advantage.

That cannot be underestimated.

It will be an Indians summer at Progressive Field in 2016.  And if they can get off to a good start, people will start returning to be a part of the excitement.

MW

Thoughts On Tribe Opening Day Roster

The Cleveland Indians open the regular season less than a week from today, and they virtually finalized their roster over the past few days.

We are surprised by Terry Francona’s decision to keep just one left-hander in the bullpen, and even more surprised it was Ross Detwiler.  However, Detwiler does have a 615 OPS against vs. left handed hitters, holding them to a .233 batting average.

Our guess is that because Detwiler is a former starter, 76 big league starts, including seven last year with Texas, Francona and Mickey Callaway feel he can be more than a guy who just faces one left-handed hitter.

We would be disappointed if the Indians keep 13 pitchers to start the year because they don’t need a fifth starter for much of April, and having nine relievers is a bit much.

We are also hoping there is nothing going on with Tito’s not naming Trevor Bauer to start the fourth game of the season against the White Sox.

Although Bauer is inconsistent, he is a better choice to be in the rotation from the get go than Josh Tomlin, who has struggled all spring.

Perhaps GM Mike Chernoff is working on a trade, because Cody Anderson has thrown very well in Arizona, giving Francona six solid options in the rotation.  Anderson may have to begin the season in Columbus.

He would head up a very good rotation in AAA which would include T. J. House and camp sensation Mike Clevenger.  A lot of major league teams would love any of that trio among its starting staff.

As for the ‘pen, Detwiler joins closer Cody Allen, set up men Bryan Shaw and Zack McAllister, and Joba Chamberlain, Jeff Manship, and either Bauer or Tomlin as relievers.

We would keep an eye on Manship, who has a 5.40 ERA in exhibition play, and outside of his 2015 season, has had a mediocre major league career.

In the outfield, Lonnie Chisenhall and Michael Brantley will begin the year on the disabled list, meaning the starting outfield from the end of last year, including the suspended Abraham Almonte, has had to be replaced.

The front office brought in a lot of outfielders during the winter, hoping someone would claim a job(s).  Rajai Davis was a given to make the team when he signed, but the other spots were claimed by a Marlon Byrd, who signed during camp, and rookie Tyler Naquin, who flat out refused to be ignored.

Somehow, out of all the veteran scrubs brought in, the winner of the “competition” was Collin Cowgill, who will probably start opening day because of David Price pitching for Boston, despite his career .236 batting average and 633 OPS.

To be fair, he has come on strong in the last week, but is still hitting a robust .178 in Arizona.

He makes the team basically because he can play centerfield and either he or Davis can spell Naquin against a tough southpaw.

The infield is pretty well set.

Terry Francona will have to be very adaptable this season, and he has demonstrated he is very good at doing this.

He will mix and match his lineups, making sure to play the percentages based on platoon differences and giving some of his older players occasional days off.

Jose Ramirez will be a key in doing just that.

It will be interesting to see what moves will be made once Brantley and Chisenhall are ready to go.

KM

 

Will Tribe’s Strengths Override Weaknesses

We remember reading Bill James’ Baseball Abstracts in the late 70’s and early 80’s, and his essays about the Montreal Expos, a talented team that just couldn’t get over the hump and win the division.

If we recall correctly, James’ theory was that even though the Expos had some great players like Gary Carter, Tim Raines, Andre Dawson, Tim Wallach, and Warren Cromartie, all near the top at their positions in the major leagues, the team was weighed down by the spots where they didn’t have great players.

The Cleveland Indians remind me of those Expo teams right now.

The Tribe has some of the best players in the game at their respective positions:  Michael Brantley and Francisco Lindor were both ranked by MLB Network’s Shredder as the best left fielder and shortstop, respectively.

And Jason Kipnis and Yan Gomes are among the best second basemen and catchers in baseball too.

In fact, the network had five Indians among the game’s Top 100 Players Right Now:  Brantley, Corey Kluber, Kipnis, Lindor, and Carlos Carrasco.

That’s a good place to start for any team.  The hope is the weaknesses at the other positions don’t drag the Indians’ win-loss record down.

Without Brantley, it is well documented that Terry Francona has a lot of question marks to deal with in his outfield.  Since Abraham Almonte was suspended, and he isn’t a great answer to any question either, the starting OF looks like Lonnie Chisenhall in RF, Rajai Davis somewhere, and the other spot is wide open.

And outside of prospect Tyler Naquin, the upside for Joey Butler, Shane Robinson, Robbie Grossman, and/or Collin Cowgill isn’t exactly awe inspiring either.

At the infield corners, the Tribe is going with veterans on the wrong side of 30 years old in Mike Napoli and Juan Uribe.  Both have been productive recently, so it’s not exactly a huge risk, but neither is it etched in stone that these two will be productive.

The bedrock of this team is it’s outstanding starting pitching.  But the question that most national pundits have is did the front office get enough offense to take real advantage of arguably the best rotation in the American League.

Look, because of their arms, the Tribe is going to be in most games barring an injury or two.  Kluber, Carrasco, Danny Salazar, and Trevor Bauer give you a chance to win every night, and Cody Anderson and Josh Tomlin aren’t bad either.

However, we’ve seen what the Indians record over the years is when scoring three or fewer runs per game, even with this pitching staff:

2015  18-61
2014  25-56
2013  17-53
2012  16-63

In the last four years, the trend has been an offense scoring three runs or less in about half the Tribe’s games.

Imagine how good this ballclub would be with a consistent and more potent batting attack?

They would be the team to beat in the American League, and perhaps all of baseball.

The front office is also fortunate they don’t have to pay a king’s ransom for that rotation right now.  Kluber, Carrasco and Tomlin are under affordable contracts, and the rest of the hurlers are under club control.

The story of this season is will the weaknesses in the outfield and the possible age on the corner infield outweigh all of the good things the franchise has going for it.

Or can the talented players on the Cleveland roster make up for the weaknesses.

KM