Why Tribe Will Win The Central

All winter long, we have been critical of the off-season for the Cleveland Indians’ front office.

They did make a lot of sound, solid moves, but we questioned whether or not they did enough to get the squad back to a win total in the upper 80’s or low 90’s, so they could return to the post-season.

After careful consideration, we think they have and Terry Francona’s crew will win the AL Central Division in 2016.

By the way, we aren’t homers and don’t predict the Indians to win every year either.  We think the last time we did make that pick, it was 2007-08.

Certainly, we know the Indians have the starting pitching to do it, perhaps the best rotation in the American League, and maybe in the sport when you figure the lack of DH in the National League, and that the AL is better overall.

The rotation is strong enough that a pitcher who threw 176 innings for the Tribe a year ago, Trevor Bauer, will apparently start the ’16 season in the bullpen.

And T.J. House, a big factor in 2014 and a very good prospect, Mike Clevenger, will open the season in Columbus.

We all know the key for the Indians in 2016 is the hitting, can they score enough runs to avoid losing a bunch of games because they score three runs or less, which they did in half of their games a year ago.

It is ridiculous to think Francisco Lindor will hit .313 as he did in 99 games a year ago, but if he hits .270, that’s an improvement over what the Tribe got from the spot in the first half of the ’15 campaign.

Team president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff appear to have taken some dead spots in the lineup from a year ago, and have put players who should be able to help at the plate in their places.

While we like Giovanny Urshela’s potential, the fact remains last year he had a 608 OPS, way below average.  This year, Juan Uribe, who had a 737 OPS will be the primary third baseman, with Jose Ramirez, who we think will breakout this season, getting time there as well.

And if Uribe doesn’t hit (he is 37 years old), Urshela had a solid spring at the plate and should improve on his offensive ability.

Tyler Naquin and Rajai Davis should do better than what Michael Bourn gave Cleveland until he was dealt to Atlanta in late July, and the platoon of Lonnie Chisenhall and another vet, Marlon Byrd should do better than the Brandon Moss/David Murphy/Jerry Sands trio in RF.

And we believe that Mike Napoli will be the best of the veterans the front office brought in this winter, and Yan Gomes is ready to pick up where he left off in 2014, before being hampered by injuries.

Those additions will augment Michael Brantley, who hopefully will be back by the end of April, and Jason Kipnis at the plate

The only concern we have is in the bullpen.

Cody Allen should be fine, but we worry about Bryan Shaw and wonder if the heavy workload finally catches up with him.

We also worry about Jeff Manship, because let’s face it, in his seven years in the big leagues, he’s had three good months, the second half of last season.

On the other hand, the Tribe has depth in the organization with bullpen arms.  Shawn Armstrong and Austin Adams are ready to contribute if someone fails.

Lastly, there’s the Francona factor. Although we may disagree with him strategically at times, he knows how to use each player to the greatest advantage.

That cannot be underestimated.

It will be an Indians summer at Progressive Field in 2016.  And if they can get off to a good start, people will start returning to be a part of the excitement.

MW

Thoughts On Tribe Opening Day Roster

The Cleveland Indians open the regular season less than a week from today, and they virtually finalized their roster over the past few days.

We are surprised by Terry Francona’s decision to keep just one left-hander in the bullpen, and even more surprised it was Ross Detwiler.  However, Detwiler does have a 615 OPS against vs. left handed hitters, holding them to a .233 batting average.

Our guess is that because Detwiler is a former starter, 76 big league starts, including seven last year with Texas, Francona and Mickey Callaway feel he can be more than a guy who just faces one left-handed hitter.

We would be disappointed if the Indians keep 13 pitchers to start the year because they don’t need a fifth starter for much of April, and having nine relievers is a bit much.

We are also hoping there is nothing going on with Tito’s not naming Trevor Bauer to start the fourth game of the season against the White Sox.

Although Bauer is inconsistent, he is a better choice to be in the rotation from the get go than Josh Tomlin, who has struggled all spring.

Perhaps GM Mike Chernoff is working on a trade, because Cody Anderson has thrown very well in Arizona, giving Francona six solid options in the rotation.  Anderson may have to begin the season in Columbus.

He would head up a very good rotation in AAA which would include T. J. House and camp sensation Mike Clevenger.  A lot of major league teams would love any of that trio among its starting staff.

As for the ‘pen, Detwiler joins closer Cody Allen, set up men Bryan Shaw and Zack McAllister, and Joba Chamberlain, Jeff Manship, and either Bauer or Tomlin as relievers.

We would keep an eye on Manship, who has a 5.40 ERA in exhibition play, and outside of his 2015 season, has had a mediocre major league career.

In the outfield, Lonnie Chisenhall and Michael Brantley will begin the year on the disabled list, meaning the starting outfield from the end of last year, including the suspended Abraham Almonte, has had to be replaced.

The front office brought in a lot of outfielders during the winter, hoping someone would claim a job(s).  Rajai Davis was a given to make the team when he signed, but the other spots were claimed by a Marlon Byrd, who signed during camp, and rookie Tyler Naquin, who flat out refused to be ignored.

Somehow, out of all the veteran scrubs brought in, the winner of the “competition” was Collin Cowgill, who will probably start opening day because of David Price pitching for Boston, despite his career .236 batting average and 633 OPS.

To be fair, he has come on strong in the last week, but is still hitting a robust .178 in Arizona.

He makes the team basically because he can play centerfield and either he or Davis can spell Naquin against a tough southpaw.

The infield is pretty well set.

Terry Francona will have to be very adaptable this season, and he has demonstrated he is very good at doing this.

He will mix and match his lineups, making sure to play the percentages based on platoon differences and giving some of his older players occasional days off.

Jose Ramirez will be a key in doing just that.

It will be interesting to see what moves will be made once Brantley and Chisenhall are ready to go.

KM

 

Will Tribe’s Strengths Override Weaknesses

We remember reading Bill James’ Baseball Abstracts in the late 70’s and early 80’s, and his essays about the Montreal Expos, a talented team that just couldn’t get over the hump and win the division.

If we recall correctly, James’ theory was that even though the Expos had some great players like Gary Carter, Tim Raines, Andre Dawson, Tim Wallach, and Warren Cromartie, all near the top at their positions in the major leagues, the team was weighed down by the spots where they didn’t have great players.

The Cleveland Indians remind me of those Expo teams right now.

The Tribe has some of the best players in the game at their respective positions:  Michael Brantley and Francisco Lindor were both ranked by MLB Network’s Shredder as the best left fielder and shortstop, respectively.

And Jason Kipnis and Yan Gomes are among the best second basemen and catchers in baseball too.

In fact, the network had five Indians among the game’s Top 100 Players Right Now:  Brantley, Corey Kluber, Kipnis, Lindor, and Carlos Carrasco.

That’s a good place to start for any team.  The hope is the weaknesses at the other positions don’t drag the Indians’ win-loss record down.

Without Brantley, it is well documented that Terry Francona has a lot of question marks to deal with in his outfield.  Since Abraham Almonte was suspended, and he isn’t a great answer to any question either, the starting OF looks like Lonnie Chisenhall in RF, Rajai Davis somewhere, and the other spot is wide open.

And outside of prospect Tyler Naquin, the upside for Joey Butler, Shane Robinson, Robbie Grossman, and/or Collin Cowgill isn’t exactly awe inspiring either.

At the infield corners, the Tribe is going with veterans on the wrong side of 30 years old in Mike Napoli and Juan Uribe.  Both have been productive recently, so it’s not exactly a huge risk, but neither is it etched in stone that these two will be productive.

The bedrock of this team is it’s outstanding starting pitching.  But the question that most national pundits have is did the front office get enough offense to take real advantage of arguably the best rotation in the American League.

Look, because of their arms, the Tribe is going to be in most games barring an injury or two.  Kluber, Carrasco, Danny Salazar, and Trevor Bauer give you a chance to win every night, and Cody Anderson and Josh Tomlin aren’t bad either.

However, we’ve seen what the Indians record over the years is when scoring three or fewer runs per game, even with this pitching staff:

2015  18-61
2014  25-56
2013  17-53
2012  16-63

In the last four years, the trend has been an offense scoring three runs or less in about half the Tribe’s games.

Imagine how good this ballclub would be with a consistent and more potent batting attack?

They would be the team to beat in the American League, and perhaps all of baseball.

The front office is also fortunate they don’t have to pay a king’s ransom for that rotation right now.  Kluber, Carrasco and Tomlin are under affordable contracts, and the rest of the hurlers are under club control.

The story of this season is will the weaknesses in the outfield and the possible age on the corner infield outweigh all of the good things the franchise has going for it.

Or can the talented players on the Cleveland roster make up for the weaknesses.

KM

 

 

Should Tribe Trust These Guys?

Outside of Opening Day, the next best day for starved baseball fans is coming this week when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

By the way, if you happen to be going to Goodyear, Arizona, the forecast for this week is in the 80’s, a drastic departure from what we have experience in Cleveland this week.

The Indians are definitely a contender for a playoff spot in the balance American League, where pretty much everyone, save for perhaps Oakland, could be in the post-season.

It has been well stated that we wish the Tribe front office had done more to improve the ballclub this winter, particularly since they have one of the premier starting rotations in baseball, but even still if the hitting can generate enough runs, Terry Francona’s team should be in the mix heading into September.

However, there are some players we think the Indians may be putting too much faith in heading into spring training.  Here they are, and our reasons for saying this.

Rajai Davis. One reason is that Davis is 35 years old and his game is built on speed.  But the OF’s OPS languished under 700 from 2010-13 while playing for Oakland and Toronto.

The resurgence in the last two years comes from great numbers in Comerica Park where the speedster had a 785 OPS in 2014, and then shot up to 823 last season.

Can Davis put up respectable numbers without playing half his games in the Motor City?  That’s something to keep an eye on in the early part of the season.

Carlos Santana. Fans around town are split on the switch-hitter, but can the Tribe brass count on him for a rebound season that the offense desperately needs?

The former catcher will turn 30 a couple of days after the season opens, and his production has declined each of the last two seasons, dropping 40 points in OPS in both seasons.  Most of that drop comes from his slugging percentage, which was that of a middle infielder last season.

He will get a lot of at bats at DH in 2016, and if the power numbers don’t return to 2013 levels, Francona will be searching for a replacement very quickly.

Abraham Almonte.  The Indians are putting a lot of faith into their play in August and September a year ago, and the switch-hitting centerfielder was a significant part of that success.

After two dismal seasons in San Diego, Almonte put up a 321/455/776 line in less than 200 at bats with Cleveland.  That’s way above any kind of numbers he put up in the major leagues before that.

But he’s the primary guy in center coming into the season.  That should make everyone who follows the Indians very nervous.

Jeff Manship.  We have seen him mentioned by some as a major piece in the Cleveland bullpen and frankly, we aren’t buying it.

GM Mike Chernoff is still searching for relief help, which is why he signed Tommy Hunter on Friday, and also traded for Dan Otero and inked Craig Stammen to a minor league deal.

In Francona’s world, you can never have enough relief pitchers.

Manship was incredible a year ago, with an 0.92 ERA in 39 innings of work.

But do not forget for a minute, that the right hander never had an ERA under 5.00 in any shot in the bigs before last season.

Perhaps he found something to make him a reliable major league reliever, but more likely, he will regress to the mean, and that means he could be in Columbus to open the season.

There are other question marks, like Lonnie Chisenhall in RF, and is MLB Network’s Mike Lowell correct about Mike Napoli finding his bat speed in Texas last season.

While the AL doesn’t have a lot of mediocre squads, filling some of these maybe with positive would make us feel better about the ’16 Cleveland Indians.

However, if the players we mention come through?  It will be a fun summer at Progressive Field.

MW

Tribe Wants Good Start? Maybe Get Younger

It would seem appropriate on Super Bowl Sunday to write something about football today, but for fans of the Cleveland Browns, that game is a myth, something along the lines of a unicorn.

So, instead, with spring training starting in less than two weeks (how great is that to say), we will discuss the Cleveland Indians, a time with a chance to make the playoffs in 2016.

Unfortunately, that chance is slimmer than it could have been if the front office would have been more aggressive this off-season, instead of its normal philosophy of “wishin’ and hopin’.

There is no doubt the Indians have a championship pitching staff, their starting rotation is one of the five best in major league baseball, and may very well be #1.

But team president Chris Antonetti and new GM Mike Chernoff didn’t do Terry Francona any favors by signing two players with plenty of age on them, Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis, as the only additions to the lineup.

And of course, rumors have them pursuing another aging veteran hitter in Juan Uribe.

This isn’t to say none of these guys can help the Tribe, in fact, we believe Napoli in particular could be a big help this season, but as a whole, the rampant conservatism that permeates the front office was en vogue again this winter.

In our opinion, one of the reasons the Indians get off to slow starts is they begin the season playing veterans who don’t have much left, and by the middle of May or early June, the management finally realizes that and replaces them with younger, more productive players.

Last year, it was Michael Bourn (Nick Swisher was hurt).  Francona wrote Bourn’s name in the lineup 95 times last season, and his 608 OPS dragged down the offense.  We would have moved the centerfielder after his ’14 season showed he was declining.

In 2014, Ryan Raburn was struggling after an excellent ’13 campaign, and he and Swisher, who was struggling physically, hampered the offense.

And don’t forget the Indians started playing better when Asdrubal Cabrera was traded and Jose Ramirez was inserted as shortstop.

Also, remember Orlando Cabrera, Jack Hannahan, and Johnny Damon?

That’s why we would pass on Uribe and let Giovanny Urshela and Jose Ramirez platoon at third base.  What are the odds that Uribe will be much better than the two youngsters, who will probably improve with regular playing time.

It’s also why if Tyler Naquin hits .420 (or thereabouts) in the Cactus League, we would have him make the Opening Day roster and give him regular playing time.

After all, the Tribe’s current starting outfielder consists of 35-year-old Davis, a journeyman in Abraham Almonte, and Lonnie Chisenhall, who in his brief major league career has demonstrated wild inconsistency.

We would rather see Naquin than Collin Cowgill, Shane Robinson, or Joey Butler, because Naquin will get better.  It’s hard to see the other three doing that.

And if one or all of them go to the minor leagues, you have a fallback if the rookie struggles in the bigs.

The fear in Cleveland is that a young player will be ruined by early career struggles.  We believe if the rookie is tough mentally, he will overcome that.

Remember, Francisco Lindor was hitting around .210 after his first month in the majors.  Was he crushed by it?  No!

We understand that Lindor is a special talent, but why not give more young players a chance?

It may just help the Indians get off to better starts to seasons.

KM

Excited About Tribe Winter Moves? Not Us

There are some people in this city who look at the Cleveland Indians through rose colored glasses.

They are baseball’s model organization, the small market team with the smartest front office in the sport.

Some of these people work at the ballclub’s flagship radio station, others are media members who are charmed by the genuine, good people who work in the Tribe’s baseball operations department.

Others are fans, usually of the younger persuasion, who see the organization building a young core of talent and feel optimistic for the future.

Heck, they get excited by the news of Josh Tomlin, a back of the rotation starter at best, signing a club friendly, multi-year contract extension.

When Tomlin inked the deal yesterday, social media was flooded by people telling us what a wonderful deal it was.  To us, it was “meh”.

We see their side of the argument.  We too are excited by Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis, and one of the best starting rotations in all of major league baseball.

That’s the half filled view. Looking on the bright side of things.

We can’t give them that benefit of the doubt simply because of that dominant pitching.  Our opinion is if the Indians can get to the post-season, their arms could carry them a long way, but they have to get there, and we don’t think they can score enough runs to accomplish that.

Terry Francona’s squad still have a lot of holes in the everyday lineup.  We see big question marks at 3B and the entire outfield, depending on how long Brantley is out of the lineup.

Yes, getting Mike Napoli looks like a solid move.  He upgrades the defense at first base, but outside of the second half of last season with Texas, he’s not the player he was with Boston three or four years ago.

He is 34 years old after all.

And Rajai Davis would be a nice pick up as an extra outfielder.  Unfortunately, he looks like the starter in LF until Brantley returns.

Also, why do we have the feeling that the Indians will rush Brantley back from his injury, and because of that, he may have an off year?  Probably because they did the same thing with Kipnis and Yan Gomes each of the last two years.

Would anyone be truly surprised if both players struggled in 2016?  If they do, how does Francona get his club to put more runs on the board.

Our problem is that Tribe management always has the strategy that if everything goes right, we can win the AL Central, but the reality is, it rarely happens that all factors fall in our favor.

That’s why this off-season was the perfect time to make a bold move for a hitter in their prime.  Yes, we understand that it is difficult because if you sign a free agent, you likely will have to pay for the player when he is past his prime.

And making a trade carries a risk because the player you move may wind up being better than the guy you get.

That’s one of the reasons we say the Indians operate in fear.  They deal in mostly low risk, high reward moves, but many times they get players who don’t have much left.

This would have been a perfect time to strike and put this team in a position to win the division and avoid wild card game.

It may work out, but why not eliminate some of the “hope” factor.  It’s okay to put a team out there that doesn’t need a luck factor to win.

KM

 

 

This Year’s Tribe Trial? Old Vets On 1 Year Deals

It seems that every off-season, the Cleveland Indians’ front office looks at their club and decides to conduct a science experiment.

The science involved is sabermetrics, and they seem to be always trying a different “theory” in terms of making the team successful for the upcoming season.

While they have put together three straight winning seasons (last year is kind of up for debate because they played only 161 games and finished one over .500), their victory total has declined since Terry Francona took the Indians to 92 wins in 2013 and a berth in the wild card game.

Over the years, GM Chris Antonetti took a look throughout baseball and saw the majority of pitchers were right-handed, and decided to make his team left-handed hitting dominant.

While the Indians were successful vs. righties, the problem became situational southpaws came out of the opponent’s bullpens and other teams decided to adjust rotations to throw lefties against Cleveland, with great success.

After the Tribe was burned by the signings of Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, two players in their early 30’s when inked, the Indians’ front office seems to be staying away from the long term deals to free agents.

Actually, this theory has merit.  Don’t you think the Angels would love to get out of the Albert Pujols deal right now?  And we know Boston would love for some team to take Hanley Ramirez and/or Pablo Sandoval off of their hands.

If you sign a player over 30 to a long term deal, you are paying top dollar for a player’s declining years.  After a year or two of doing that, teams get tired of it.

The best free agents to sign are guys who hit that position in their mid-to-late 20’s, let’s say from age 27-29.  That way you still get some prime years at big cash.

The problem is the players and agents are now looking for agreements which last six or seven years.  This means it is inevitable that you will be paying big money to a player when he is no longer producing at an optimum level.

We totally understand why the Indians, and their payroll constraints, either self imposed or market imposed, stay away from the free agent process.

This year’s plan du jour is to improve the offense, which was a major trouble spot in 2015, with a series of veteran free agents, giving them non-threatening one year contracts.

1B Mike Napoli will play all of the 2016 season at 34 years old.  The problem with him is his OPS has declined each of the last three seasons (842, 789, 734).  Cleveland hopes his second half resurgence with Texas is the player they will get this season.

Rajai Davis is 35 years old, and although his OPS rose since he started playing in Detroit, he is a platoon player with an OPS vs. lefties at 798, but only a 654 figure against right-handers.

And there are rumors the Indians are talking seriously to another veteran, 3B Juan Uribe, who will turn 37 in March.  Uribe is a good clubhouse influence and was well respected with the Dodgers and Mets last season.

He is starting to slow down a bit, with his OPS dropping 40 points last season.

If signed, his presence will allow the Tribe to start Giovanny Urshela at AAA to begin the season.

Signing these guys is a gamble, because if they don’t produce because age is catching up to them, then the Indians are in the same boat they were in last season.  Actually, a little worse because Michael Brantley will likely miss the first two months of the season.

The Indians could have just went out and acquired a solid middle of the order bat, and they still might, although it isn’t likely.

They chose this latest experiment.

That can’t make the fan base all warm and fuzzy.

KM

 

Tribe’s Signing OK, Still Need More

The Cleveland Indians finally entered the real hot stove league yesterday with the signings of free agents Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis to one year contracts.

First, there is no such thing as a bad one year deal, because even if the player is outright terrible, the Tribe will be out of it after the 2016 season.

We like the Napoli signing better, because he’s been more productive throughout his major league career (lifetime 837), and although he had a bad first half in 2015, he rebounded to post a 908 OPS after being dealt to Texas.

And he’s a solid defensive first baseman, much better than Carlos Santana.

Yes, he does strike out a lot, but he also has a career on base percentage of .355, meaning he also can take a walk.

We have problems with high strikeout, low walk players, such as Zack Walters.

Jim Thome and Travis Hafner fanned a lot, but they also draw tons of walks.

Davis is a good depth player, and can hit lefties, but he’s an aging speed guy whose increase in OPS over the past couple years seems to have come from playing half the time in spacious Comerica Park.

His road OPS in each of the last two seasons is below 700, meaning he wasn’t a good offensive player on the road.

And he is not a good on base percentage player either.

The Tribe will probably use him in a platoon role, and maybe he can help there, but our guess he will have to be used sparingly to be effective.

While both signings are fine on their own, the Indians still need a middle of the lineup presence to be a good offensive team.

Right now, the Tribe has a lot of guys who should be hitting in the #2 and #6-#9 spots in the order, but someone will have to hit leadoff and someone has to bat fourth.

Mike Hargrove said it well when he was the manager here.  If you have a leadoff man and a cleanup hitter, the rest of the batting order takes care of itself.

Right now, the Indians have neither, meaning Terry Francona will have to put someone ill fit for those spots in there.

Really, Jason Kipnis should be hitting either #2, #3, or #5 or #6, but he is forced to be used at the top of the order.

Only Michael Brantley hits where he is best suited among the top five batters.  He is the best hitter and bats third.

Guys like Carlos Santana and Napoli should hit sixth or seventh in a good batting order.

And putting them in a spot for which they aren’t suited makes them a failure in fans eyes.

That’s why you probably have to move a starting pitcher to get that kind of middle of the order bat.

Although we would prefer to not move Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier in one of these deals, we wouldn’t hesitate to use any other prospect for the right player.

For example, we like Mike Clevenger’s potential.  However, the reality is he has not thrown one pitch in a major league game.  He might be a very good starter someday, but then again, he might not be.

One thing we do know is the Indians have a very good starting rotation and some depth in that area.  So, you have to take advantage of that and sooner than later.

And just because other teams went for it last year and failed (San Diego, the White Sox), doesn’t mean the Tribe shouldn’t either.

The Royals won the World Series and signed Kendrys Morales in the winter and traded for Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist at the deadline.

It is doubtful they’d have won without those players.

Yesterday’s signings help the 2016 Indians, but the front office shouldn’t think this team is ready for Opening Day.

There is plenty of work to do.

MW

Tribe Can’t Be Conservative in Helping Offense

It is almost a universal belief that the Cleveland Indians need to upgrade their offense this winter.

The Tribe ranked 11th in the American League in runs scored, and scored three runs or less in almost half (79) of the games they played in 2015.

They have only three everyday players with an OPS over 800:  Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis, and rookie of the year runner up Francisco Lindor.

As a contrast, the World Champion Royals had five such players, and a sixth, Ben Zobrist, joined them during the season.

We have written shortly after the season ended that the Indians should be looking to upgrade offensively at five different positions:  1B, 3B, CF, RF, and DH.

We are sure the supporters who are fans of Carlos Santana will say that we are crazy, but the switch-hitter will be 30 years old in 2016 and his numbers have declined each of the last two seasons.

The reality is Chris Antonetti, Mike Chernoff, and Terry Francona would be happy is at least two or three of these spots will be upgraded offensively.

While many fans like the job Lonnie Chisenhall did in RF after returning from the minor leagues (756 OPS, .288 batting average), over the entire season, his OPS was under 700.

That said, he is the player out of the five positions that we would consider as an everyday guy in 2016.

The real question though is how can the Indians accomplish this improvement?

We can all agree that the front office is not going to commit to a huge free agent deal to get a solid bat.

Therefore, we can rule out anyone on the high end of the free agent market.

Actually, we can rule out the entire free agent market because we wouldn’t pay between $7-$10 million on flawed players like Austin Jackson, David Freese, and the like.

So, it would appear to us that the only way to get the kind of bat the Tribe desperately needs is to trade one of their starting pitchers.

If the next Ted Williams fell into Cleveland’s lap for a minor league prospect, of course that would be the first option.  However, that’s not likely to occur.

In order to get a quality hitter, a professional hitter, the organization is going to have to pony up.

It would be nice to continue to have four or five quality starting pitchers who are proven commodities, but you may still have that with the depth the Indians have accumulated over the past few years.

And if the front office is going to ink players like Jackson or Freese and tell you they’ve improved the hitting, they are lying to themselves.

One guy who may be affordable and could help, at least against right-handed pitchers is free agent John Jaso.

Jaso, 32, is a platoon bat however.  He’s a lifetime .274 batter against right-handed pitching, with a 797 OPS.

He had a 839 OPS last season with Tampa Bay.

It would be fine to get some pieces like Jaso to help, but only if you can get someone who can hit in the middle of the order, especially with Brantley out of the lineup probably until the middle of May.

But you are going to have to give something significant in return.

The question is will the Indians’ front office have the stomach to make such a move

MW

Tribe Starters Fine, But Bullpen Needs Overhaul in ’16

A week ago, we talked about how the past few weeks for the Cleveland Indians should eliminate any notion in the front office’s collective minds that minor tinkering is all the Tribe needs heading into next season.

The offense ranks in the bottom third of the American League and there is no question that should be the primary area of concern this winter.

On the other hand, the pitching staff currently ranks 2nd in the AL in staff ERA, and ranks in the top three in the league in most of the major categories (hits allowed, strikeouts, least walks) and leads the AL in complete games.

The preference would be the leave the pitching staff alone, particularly the starters, because if you are statistically one of the best staffs in your league, why would you make any moves.

However, pitching staffs can be volatile from year to year, and in order to get the bat the Indians so desperately needs, you may have to give up a starting pitcher.

And the Tribe, despite the adage that when you think you have too much pitching, you go out and get more, has some depth in the rotation.

Without question, the big four of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, and Trevor Bauer, are pretty durable, and in spite of Bauer’s inconsistent second half, are pretty darn good.

You also have Cody Anderson and Josh Tomlin, both of whom were great after they got healthy after the All Star Game.

Add in T.J. House, who was solid last year, but injured for most of this year, and prospects Mike Clevenger (acquired from the Angels a year ago for Vinnie Pestano) and Adam Plutko, and you can see there is hope for the future.

And perhaps Gavin Floyd will be back as well.

If you have to trade one of the starters, which one should go?

Bauer would be a popular choice, but he’s also the youngest of the quartet, and based on his second half, probably has the least market value.

Kluber would bring the most in return, but he figures to have a bounce back season in 2016 and we would still say in an elite starter.

We would dangle Salazar because we think he is the most mentally fragile.  He may improve this with experience, but he doesn’t seem to battle his way out of trouble when things start to go bad.

The bullpen should be rebuilt because outside of closer Cody Allen, the relief corps was inconsistent down the stretch.  Zack McAllister has a dominant fastball, but needs to be able to throw a breaking pitch for a strike.

Bryan Shaw seems to be suffering from the huge workload he has had over the past two years, and would seem to have decent trade value.

The rest of the ‘pen is filled with guys that Terry Francona doesn’t have a great deal of faith in, although we would keep Kyle Crockett because he’s demonstrated in the past that he can be effective vs. left-handed hitters.

There are some options in the minor leagues too that haven’t received a decent shot at the major league level.  Shawn Armstrong deserves a shot, and the club could take a good look at Jeff Johnson and Josh Martin as well, and there be plenty of veterans available as well in free agency.

The pitching staff is the strength of this team.  Unfortunately, the offense wasted a great job by the staff in 2015.

KM