Guardians Seem To Have Changed Philosophy On Hitting

About 10 years ago, the Cleveland Guardians developed a philosophy about hitting. The theory was it was easier to teach a good contact hitter to hit for power than it was to instruct a power hitter to make more contact.

The prime examples were Jose Ramirez, who hit a grand total of 13 home runs in the minor leagues (216 in the majors) and Francisco Lindor, who’s high in the minor leagues was 11 dingers, and by his second full year in the bigs, belted 33.

Kyle Manzardo, who came in the Aaron Civale deal, also fits this profile. He struck out in 18% of his plate appearances last season and hit 17 homers.

As everyone is aware by now, the Guardians were last in the major leagues in home runs in 2023, so what moves they have made have involved getting power, but they are getting players with high strikeout rates and low walk rates.

Why do we focus on this? Because generally, those players can be pitched to, meaning pitchers aren’t dumb and if they realize they can retire a hitter without throwing him a strike, then they probably won’t.

Not to pick on Amed Rosario, but how many times did we watch him strikeout without the pitcher throwing a ball in the strike zone? We realize the game has changed (not all changes are for the good) and hitters sell out to hit more home runs, but sometimes you can score without getting a hit. Can’t do that with a strikeout.

It’s not impossible for a hitter to succeed with that profile, but it isn’t the norm.

For example, Oscar Gonzalez struck out almost six times as much as he walked in the minor leagues. His first year in the bigs, he hit .296 with 11 homers, but he did fan 75 times with just 15 walks.

His next year? He hit .214 with two round-trippers and struck nine times more than he walked (46:5). It will be interesting to see how the Yankees will handle him.

This off-season, the Guardians elevated Johnathan Rodriguez to the 40 man roster. He has hit 55 home runs the past two minor league seasons, including 29 last season at the AA and AAA levels. He did strike out in 29% of his plate appearance last season in the minors. That’s the bad news.

The good news is his walk rate was the highest of his minor league career. Perhaps that’s a good sign.

The same is true with Estevan Florial, acquired from the Yankees the day after Christmas. Florial hit 28 dingers at AAA last season with a career high 66 walks. He did strikeout in 30% of his plate appearances in the minors a year ago.

The Guardians do a lot of touting of Gabriel Arias, because he has a very strong exit velocity when he hits the ball. However, that’s the problem. He whiffed in 32.8% of his at bats for the Cleveland a year ago.

In addition to being last in the majors in home runs last season, the Guardians also struck out the least. However, it is possible hit for power and not whiff excessively.

Of the top ten in the lowest number of strikeouts last year, five teams made the playoffs, including the Braves, who led the majors in home runs with 307, and Houston, who were fifth in the bigs in runs scored.

We have our doubts that the new power with high strikeout rates will work for the Guardians. We think they should focus on getting more men on base, a higher on-base percentage.

Of the teams with the 10 worst OBP in the sport in 2023, none made the playoffs. Maybe there is a correlation there.

Guardians Still Need Offense

The Cleveland Guardians had an issue scoring runs last season. They ranked 12th in the American League in runs scored in 2023 and were last in the league in home runs.

The Toronto Blue Jays scored the least runs of the teams that made the post-season, and they scored 84 more times than Cleveland did. Although pitching is the name of the game in Major League Baseball, you have to score runs to win in the regular season.

The off-season player movement cycle has moved slower than normal this year in the sport because everyone is waiting for Shohei Ohtani to sign, which he did about a week ago.

To date, the Guardians’ front office has done nothing to improve the hitting and frankly, seems to be depending on the young starting pitching getting better through experience.

The Guards were 10th in on base percentage and 14th in slugging percentage. So they need help, and a lot of it in both areas.

We have said this before, but we feel you need seven solid bats in a lineup to have an contending team’s offense. Right now, we would say Cleveland has five: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez, and Bo Naylor, although remember, the younger Naylor has less than a full season’s experience.

Right now, the lineup would look something like this:

Kwan LF
Gimenez 2B
Ramirez 3B
J. Naylor DH
Laureano RF
B. Naylor C
Manzardo 1B
Arias SS
Straw CF

Of course, that what the Guardians will likely do, not what we would do. We understand folks are high on Kyle Manzardo, who came from Tampa Bay in the Aaron Civale deal, but the reality is he doesn’t have a single big league at bat.

As for Arias, we don’t think any hitter with a 32% strikeout rate will ever wind up being a solid bat, no matter how hard he hits the ball when he does make contact. And we have seen Straw the past two seasons, with his OPS under 600 in each of those years.

Laureano will likely platoon with Will Brennan in right field, and both are similar, neither has a lot of pop, and neither walk a lot. Those two attributes make up to be a mediocre offensive player.

Given the financial restraints (although they are not as severe as the ownership says they are) of the Guardians, what free agents would make sense for Cleveland?

We would be intrigued by Brandon Belt, but he plays the same position as Josh Naylor, and we believe the Guardians have to give Manzardo a shot unless he is terrible in spring training.

A one-year deal for a veteran like J.D. Martinez (33 HR and 893 OPS with the Dodgers) would make sense, if he is willing to take one year. Martinez could DH and play some LF (with Kwan sliding over to CF) and provide some right-handed power the Guardians sorely need.

Mitch Garver, formerly of the Twins and Rangers is also intriguing, although he is more of a catcher/DH which would make it tougher for Manzardo to get at-bats. Garver hit 19 dingers in 344 plate appearances for Texas last year.

Even though he’s a left-handed hitter, what about taking a chance on Austin Meadows, who has battled injuries the last two seasons, playing just 42 games for Detroit. In his last full season in 2021, he did hit 27 homers and knock in 106 for Tampa Bay. He’s likely looking for an incentive laden “prove it” deal.

There have been reports that Tyler Freeman has started working out in the outfield in Goodyear, and no doubt we would love to see the front office give him a full shot at an everyday spot based on his minor league numbers. Our guess is they are looking at him in LF with again Kwan moving to the middle of the outfield.

In any case, Cleveland’s offensive needs are exactly what they were when the regular season ended. And spring training will start six weeks after the holiday season ends.

The Guardians’ fans are waiting.

On The Guards’ New Skipper

The Cleveland Guardians picked the successor to Terry Francona earlier this week when they tabbed Steven Vogt to be the new skipper of the Guards.

Is it a good move? We have no idea. Vogt just retired as a player after the 2022 season and spent last year as Seattle’s bullpen coach. He just turned 39 years old earlier this week. He made two all-star teams as a player.

That’s what we know about Vogt. We aren’t going to make any claims as to how he will do as a manager because he’s never done it before. And that doesn’t mean he will not be good at the job; it simply means he has no track record.

The front office did their due diligence reportedly speaking to Francona and other experienced skippers about what they feel was the best attributes to having success as a manager. They felt Vogt had those qualities and it is a good thing that he can still recall what it was like to be a player.

It reminds you what things you can ask a player to do.

Apparently, Sandy Alomar Jr. will remain on the coaching staff and his experience should be invaluable to Vogt as he navigates his way through a 162 game regular season. And Carl Willis, the Guardians’ long time and very successful pitching coach will also remain on the staff.

Vogt couldn’t hope for two better guys to be able to bounce ideas off, and hopefully, he listens to them as well in terms of communication from a manager’s standpoint, rather than that as a veteran leader.

He should develop a relationship with Jose Ramirez as soon as possible. Ramirez is the Guardians’ de facto captain and bonding with him and getting his support will go a long way into having the rest of the roster buying in.

Francona liked having veteran leadership in the locker room. In his first year in Cleveland, he had Jason Giambi in that role. Because Ramirez has been here awhile, an older player isn’t needed for that purpose, but Vogt and Ramirez need to be a team.

We would like to see the new pilot and the organization be a little more flexible about starting the season with rookies in everyday spots. Francona seemed to be a little more concerned with cold weather affecting the performance of rookies, but we would like to see them as opposed to mediocre veterans with track records.

It is a bold choice for sure and for that we commend the front office.

Speaking of the front office, they already improved the catching situation by claiming Christian Bethancourt on waivers from Tampa Bay. He belted 11 homers last season (635 OPS) and has a rocket for an arm, he pitched for a bit in the minors early in his career.

He doesn’t have a great strikeout/walk ratio, but is certainly better than Cam Gallagher, who put together one of the worst offensive seasons we have seen in a long time.

We don’t understand the other waiver pick up, 1B/OF Alfonso Rivas, who slashed .303/.422/725 with Pittsburgh and San Diego last season. He’s not an on base guy and doesn’t have a lot of pop either. He is having a good winter league season and had good numbers in AAA last season.

Just seems like a AAAA player right now. However, he may not be on the 40-man roster by the time spring training begins.

And that spring training will be guided by a new manager for the first time since 2013. Maybe Vogt can be the first World Series winning manager for Cleveland since 1948.

Guardians Need Pop, But From Good Hitters

When people talk about the Cleveland Guardians’ offense and how to improve it, the conversation usually centers around home runs. The Guards simply don’t hit many, ranking last in the majors, 27 behind the team with the next fewest, the Washington Nationals.

But we feel Cleveland doesn’t need guys who hit home runs, rather they need good hitters who can also hit home runs.

Right now, we would say the Guardians have two of these hitters in Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor. Ramirez hit .282 this season with a .356 on base percentage and also had 65 extra base hits, including 24 home runs.

Naylor batted .308 to rank fifth in the American League in batting average (he would have been third had he had enough at bats) with a .354 OBP and 48 extra base hits.

We mention extra base hits because that is power. Getting double and triples usually result in runs being scored.

And we say that knowing we watched the Guardians hit a lot of leadoff doubles and stranded that hitter at second base. The days of get ’em over and get ’em in are over folks. Although we don’t know why.

The Guardians also need to walk more (and swing less). Cleveland ranks 6th in the major leagues in swinging at pitches, and it may surprise you to know of the seven teams that rank highest in swing rate, five of them have bad or average offenses (White Sox, Rockies, Angels, Royals, and Guardians). Only the Braves and Rays buck that trend.

Teams that swing a lot are vulnerable to good pitching, usually because you are not just swinging at pitches in the strike zone. If you are a regular reader of this site, you know we are very suspicious of hitters with high strikeout and low walk rates.

It’s why we are a bit concerned about Gabriel Arias, who had a 32.8% strikeout rate last season with just an 8.1% walk rate. Yes, he hits the ball hard, but he just doesn’t hit it that often.

Hitters who strikeout a lot and walk a lot are fine. First, walking means they are not making outs. Juan Soto is the prototype for this right now, he fanned 129 times this past season, and actually walked more, drawing a major league leading 132 walks.

We found this interesting. The top five in drawing walks in 2023 hit an average of 39.2 home runs, while the top five in strikeouts hit 29.4 long balls, almost 10 less than the more selective batters.

One player, Kyle Schwarber, ranked in the top five of both categories.

So, while the Guardians need to hit more home runs the ultimate goal would be to find hitters who swing at good pitches and can drive them. We thought that became the organizational philosophy when Ramirez and Francisco Lindor arrived. Find guys who make good contact and teach them to drive the ball.

They’ve done the first part, but the driving the ball hasn’t taken hold yet.

Maybe the next wave of that is George Valera, Kyle Manzardo, and Chase DeLauter.

The Guardians need more pop, but getting hitters who make a bunch of outs while doing it isn’t the answer.

Guardians Need To Score More, Getting Proven Hitters Would Help.

We have started to read various things about what the Cleveland Guardians do for next season. We believe the front office has their ideas of how to get the Guards back in the playoffs next year, and make no mistake, that should be the goal.

This is not a rebuilding season. The Guardians won 92 games a year ago with the youngest roster in the sport. Next year will mark 76 seasons since the franchise has won a world title, and the team’s best player will enter the campaign at 31-years-old.

Offensively, Cleveland has to improve greatly. They rank 27th in all of baseball in runs scored, and that is simply not good enough. To us, barring trades, they have five players who should be fixtures in the lineup: Bo Naylor, Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, and Andres Gimenez.

So, four spots are open and at least two of them have to be filled by solid hitters. And it cannot be guys who they “hope” can be contributors at the plate, they need proven sticks.

And that’s the challenge for the front office.

It would seem Kyle Manzardo, who came over from Tampa at the trade deadline for Aaron Civale, will come to spring training with a job to lose. He hit .256 at Columbus (936 OPS) after coming to the organization, but overall hit .237/.337/464/802 at AAA in 2023.

Manzardo is highly regarded, but cannot be included as a “for sure” in 2024. If he struggles mightily in the spring, we would anticipate he will open the year in the minors.

Nor should anyone whose AAA numbers include OPS under 750 be counted on to be big league regulars. Johnathan Rodriguez had a very good season at the AA and AAA levels this year, hitting .286/.368/.529/897, but has a lot of swing and miss in his game, with 163 whiffs against 59 walks.

Jhonkensy Noel is another who we hear about because he hit 27 home runs and the Guardians need power. However, he hit .220/.303/.420/723 at Columbus. He might hit 20 homers at the big league level if given a chance. He will also make a lot of outs.

What about George Valera, who has been part of the organization’s top prospects for a while now? He hit .211/.343/.375/718 this season.

By contrast, here’s what Bo Naylor did in Columbus before being called up: .254/.393/.498/890.

It is difficult to imagine players doing better in the majors initially than they did in the high minors. We aren’t saying it’s impossible, but…

You also can’t (and the organization won’t) count on young players like Juan Brito and Chase DeLauter, both of whom we have high hopes for.

Brito, a 21-year-old switch-hitter, batted .271/.377/.434/811 across three levels in the minors this season, but he’s had only 20 plate appearances at AAA to date.

DeLauter, last season’s first round pick, is a left-handed hitter, and he only has 28 plate appearances at the AA level. He shows signs of having an elite hit tool, going .355/.417/.528/945 this year in the minors.

Both of these players might be able to contribute at the end of next year, but certainly not at the beginning of the season.

So, the front office is going to have to look for gems in other organizations or free agents who might be interested in one or two year deals. A few years ago, we saw D.J. LeMahieu available after Christmas and suggested Cleveland take a look at him. He posted a 893 OPS that season with the Yankees.

The point is there might be a bargain out there after the initial push, that is, of course assuming the Guardians won’t be spending big cash.

It won’t be easy for Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff. It shouldn’t be. But the “wishing and hoping” method shouldn’t be an option either.

No matter what, they have to figure out how to score more runs.

Thank You, Terry Francona

Terry Francona managed his last home game as the Guardians/Indians’ skipper last night and what a fun 11 years it has been. Six post-season berths, one American League pennant, and currently sitting at 920 regular season victories.

He is respected by pretty much everyone he comes in contact with, and unfortunately this 2023 Guardians didn’t have a better finish to the season.

We remember being very surprised that he would take the Cleveland position after winning two World Series in Boston, but thrilled we were getting a winner.

We are sure there are some who is glad he is leaving, and even Francona himself has said maybe the next guy will be better. As former Cleveland manager Mike Hargrove once said, two things everybody thinks they can do better than everyone else are cooking a steak and managing a baseball team.

We have said Francona is not infallible, he made mistakes, just like every other manager. He gave some players too much of the benefit of the doubt, and sometimes that patience lapsed into stubbornness. But many times, the skipper was right, and the player he waited on started producing.

He’s what they call a “baseball lifer”, he spent his whole life in the sport, and we’ve all seen the picture in the dugout at the Father/Son Day in Cleveland in the early 60’s. He grew up in the game. And with his dad playing here and him managing here for 11 years, he’s a Cleveland guy.

That alone should be cause for celebration.

And for all the talk that he loves veterans, let’s not forget during his tenure here, he broke in Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Steven Kwan, and really Josh Naylor too. And his first pitching staff here featured Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Danny Salazar, and a very young Corey Kluber.

He had Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, and Trevor Bauer on the World Series team of 2016, and brought along Shane Bieber to be the latest ace, with perhaps Tanner Bibee getting ready to take his place.

He’s done a pretty good job with young players too, and always has if you look at his time in Philadelphia (Scott Rolen and Bobby Abreu) and Boston (Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis).

Let’s also remember how masterful Francona was in the 2016 post-season, when he guided the Indians to the ultimate game despite losing Carrasco and Salazar for pretty much the entire playoffs.

He and Joe Torre changed how bullpens were used in the postseason, and now all managers use that strategy come October.

And think about the relationships with his players. When the Pirates were in town earlier this season, Carlos Santana ran over to the Guardians’ dugout after the top of the first inning to give Francona a hug.

We are sure there are a few players who don’t like Francona, but they are few and far between.

We are sad about his departure because it marks the end of an era in Cleveland baseball. It has been noted that the only two teams with better records since Francona has been at the helm are the Yankees and Dodgers. Let that sink in a bit.

Say what you will, but that’s a pretty good run.

We would like to say thank you for 11 great seasons of baseball. In an interview given last week, Francona sounds like he still would like to be part of the organization going forward, and that sound right.

Since he was a little kid, he seems like he’s been one of ours.

Hope Guardians’ Front Office Knows What They Don’t Know

The Cleveland Guardians have just 15 games remaining in what has been a very disappointing season.

Before the season we said it was very difficult to project how the team would do because most of the players had no proven track record because they were so young and had no experience.

For example, it was probably fool’s gold to say Jose Ramirez would duplicate what he did last season, which was likely a career year. But since Ramirez has been the league for a long time, you can feel pretty confident in saying he will hit 25 home runs, knock in 90-100, and bat around .280.

You couldn’t say that about anyone else projected to be in this season’s starting lineup.

Last season, Andres Gimenez was spectacular, hitting 17 homers and batting .297 with an 837 OPS. This season, his batting average has dropped to .242, his power has dropped 12 dingers.

What kind of player is Gimenez? Defensively, he has remained great, deserving of a second Gold Glove. Offensively? We will likely find out next season. We think you can figure somewhere in the middle, around a 760 OPS which with his glove, makes him a middle infield starter.

Where? He may move back to shortstop, and frankly, he would be our first choice at the position.

Steven Kwan has been reliable compared to most of the balance of the starting lineup, but his numbers have also regressed, dropping from a 772 OPS in ’22 to 715 in ’23. Most of that drop has been his on base percentage, which is .341 compared to .372 a year ago.

If Kwan can get to .350, he’s a solid leadoff hitter and we still think he can become a guy who can get to 10 homers on a yearly basis.

The only players who have exceeded expectations among the everyday players share the same last name: Naylor.

Josh is heading into his prime and raised his OPS from 771 to 849. If not for an oblique injury which cost him August, we would have knocked in 100 runs and still could do it with a hot finish. Again, he’s just 26 years old.

Bo Naylor has greatly improved the team’s offense at the catcher position. Last season, Austin Hedges and Luke Maile combined for 10 homers and 47 RBIs, and a .185 batting average.

Naylor has a 757 OPS, third best on the team for players with over 100 at bats. Why he doesn’t hit higher in the order, particularly in the last month when he has compiled a 1045 OPS (.315 average, 4 HR, 10 RBI) is one of the great mysteries surrounding the team.

Of course, he will go into next season in the same boat as Gimenez and Kwan. That is, with no track record.

So, unless some experienced players are brought in, the Guardians won’t be in a much different position entering 2024. If players like Gabriel Arias or Tyler Freeman are starting, no one will have any idea how they will be able to contribute offensively.

It will still be dependent on Ramirez and Josh Naylor to provide offense and that doesn’t seem like a recipe for success.

Guardians Should Heed Peter Brand: “He Gets On Base”

There is a famous scene in the movie “Moneyball” where in a meeting of talent evaluators, GM Billy Beane, played by Brad Pitt, brings up a player and asks the group why he likes that player.

The assistant GM Peter Brand (really Paul DePodesta) played by Jonah Hill replies “he gets on base”.

That is a credo the Cleveland Guardians should use going forward toward 2024.

We all understand the Guardians need power too. They are last in all of baseball with just 106 home runs and rank 13th the American League in slugging percentage. We know they stress contact, striking out the least in the league, but are only 9th in the AL in on base percentage.

If you don’t have power, you better have a lot of guys getting on base. You see, “he gets on base” translates to “he doesn’t make outs”.

The three best Cleveland players to avoid making outs are Jose Ramirez with a .349 on base average, with Josh Naylor at .347, followed by Steven Kwan at .340. The next best player is Bo Naylor at .320.

The two players who joined the Guardians in August, veterans Kole Calhoun and Ramon Laureano are next at .319 and .318 each.

And since the game of baseball is measured by 27 outs, having guys who make a lot of outs is not good in terms of scoring runs.

We aren’t sure the front office thinks getting on base (err, not making outs) is a valuable skill. For exhibit A, we present Yandy Diaz.

Diaz certainly wasn’t the hitter he is today in Tampa (889 OPS), but what he did do here was get on base. He had a .361 OBP in the 88 games he played in Cleveland in 2017-18.

Last season, the Guardians traded two young outfielders, Nolan Jones and Will Benson. Their on base averages in AAA were .388 and .396 respectively. To be fair, they did receive Juan Brito for Jones, and he has a career .393 OBP in the minors to date.

The player they kept instead, Will Brennan, had a .367 OBP at the AAA level. This isn’t to bash Brennan, who seems to have improved after a mid-season slump. But he’s walked 12 times all season, less than Mike Zunino and the same number of times as Calhoun.

By the way, Jones and Benson both have a .367 OBP in the major leagues this season. That number would be the highest on the 2023 Guardians.

What is we told you they have a player on their current roster who got on base at a .393 clip at the AAA level? That player is Tyler Freeman and they can’t find a place for him right now.

We are sure there are other examples, but in 2016, Cleveland had veteran switch-hitter Robbie Grossman in training camp. Grossman has a career mark of getting on base at a .344 clip. Grossman played part of ’16 with Columbus, before being released in May.

He went to Minnesota, where he recorded OBPs of .386, .361, and .367 over the next three seasons.

We think the Cleveland organization is searching for the long ball so much, they are forgetting there are two aspects to offense, and the ability to get on base is one of them. And quite frankly, it’s probably easier to identify and obtain.

Remember this, a player with a 1.000 slugging percentage simply went 1 for 4 with a HR. A game in which a team had a 1.000 OBP would never end.

Offense Has To Improve For Guards In ’24

The Cleveland Guardians used the end of August to add to their pitching staff, but didn’t do anything to improve their hitting.

They should get Josh Naylor back any day now (perhaps today!) and without question Kole Calhoun and Ramon Laureano have added something to the ability to score runs.

Calhoun has had a number of big hits, including a big double in last Sunday’s win over Toronto and the huge three run homer in the series finale in Minnesota.

The grizzled veteran has 16 RBIs in the 21 games he has been in a Cleveland uniform. By contrast, Oscar Gonzalez has played in 51 games this season, driving in 11. And Laureano had a nice series up north, hitting a pair of long balls.

He has a 688 OPS in the 20 contests he has played here, comparing that to Will Brennan (648) or Myles Straw (604).

This is exactly what we meant when we said the front office should have added some talent at the end of July, even if it meant the team only got better incrementally. It doesn’t always have to be a big splash.

Heading to 2024, the offense needs to get better, a lot better. Bill James says a hitter who has a .350 on base percentage and a .450 slugging percentage is a very good offensive player, demonstrating the ability to get on base and drive the ball.

Right now, Cleveland has one of these players, and of course it is Jose Ramirez, who has a .351 OBP and a .481 slugging average. Josh Naylor is close, getting on base at a .346 clip and slugging at .500.

No other Guardian with 100 at bats can claim to be over those thresholds individually, let alone together. The next best player at getting on base is Steven Kwan at .337, and the next best slugger is Bo Naylor at .430.

By contrast, the Texas Rangers, who lead the AL in runs scored have just two hitters (Corey Seager and Mitch Garver) who are over both the .350/.450 guideline. But they have four players who get on base over 35% of the time and Marcus Semien is sitting at .346.

FYI, they are very close to having four of these guys, because along with Semien, Nathaniel Lowe is slashing 374/447/821.

They also have six players who are slugging over .450.

Houston is third in runs scored, and they have five hitters who get on base at a 35% clip and five hitters who slug .450.

Tampa is second in the league in runs scored, and they have three players with an on base percentage over .350 and they have six players who have a slugging average over .450.

So, the challenge for the Guardians’ front office is to find more players who can get on base, we would say at least two of them, and find two or three players who can drive the ball.

Bo Naylor might fill one of those roles.

Of the teams that strike out the least in the AL, the Guardians have by far the least amount of homers with 103. The next lowest total of teams in the top five in contact? The Baltimore Orioles with 156!

Of that top five, Cleveland has also drawn the least amount of walks with 382. Boston is the next lowest at 413.

Making contact while hitting home runs can be done, the Guardians either have to find them or develop them. But having players who make contact, but don’t get on base and don’t get a lot of home runs doesn’t work.

It’s a big challenge for the Guardians’ front office this winter.

A Lot Of Open Spots For Guardians In 2024.

With the Cleveland Guardians now six games off the pace in the AL Central, it’s time to look toward the 2024 season. The front office started this process at the end of July, when they decided to sell at the trading deadline.

Before we go on, let’s just say we are on board with the trades that sent Amed Rosario to the Dodgers and Josh Bell to Miami. Rosario was below average defensively and had an OPS of under 700. Based on that, it is a shock that the deal was made and the Guards got worse offensively at the position.

As for Bell, the Guardians would have been on the hook for $16 million next year. The problem was dealing a starting pitcher and not adding anyone who could help the offense, even incrementally in 2023.

Cleveland is now 13th in the AL in runs per game, and much like the standings, Detroit is getting close to passing them in this category. So, can they improve the hitting next season?

Right now, we would say the Guardians have five players etched in stone for next season:

Jose Ramirez 3B
Josh Naylor 1B
Steven Kwan OF
Andres Gimenez MI
Bo Naylor C

That means they have to fill four spots to improve the offense. We list Kwan as an outfielder, because although he’s a great defensive leftfielder, we could see him move to centerfield next season.

And we list Gimenez as a middle infielder because frankly, he could wind up at either second base or shortstop next season.

Most people thought moving Rosario would cause the shortstop position to be better, and no doubt it has defensively, but right now (and we stress right now), the offense out of the spot has declined.

Rosario had a 675 OPS. Since August 1st, Gabriel Arias has a 568 OPS and Brayan Rocchio’s is 662. The only option with a better number than the player who was dealt is Jose Tena, who has just eight at bats.

The organization probably hoped someone would step up and seize some of the open spots in the everyday lineup, but that hasn’t happened. And there is an old baseball adage that tells us not to be fooled by what happens in April or September.

We know about Kyle Manzardo, who came over from Tampa in the Aaron Civale deal, but right now he’s hurt and his numbers in AAA were down quite a bit from last season at lower levels. Maybe he shows he’s ready in the spring, but right now, the Guardians can’t count on him if they want to contend.

We feel the same way about George Valera, Jhonkensy Noel, or any of the minor leaguers touted by the organization. If you think of yourself as a contender, you cannot have four “hope they work out” guys in your lineup.

One problem that has arisen is the middle infield prospects on the top of the organization’s list of young players haven’t looked very good at the big league level, meaning they have probably lowered their trade value.

So, how do the Guardians get some bats they are insert into next year’s lineup? Seems like a tough job for the front office.

Because it will be tough to win in 2024 unless somehow this club figures out a way to score more.