Guardians’ Struggling Due To Struggling Offense

The old adage in baseball is “you win with pitching”, and certainly that is true. The less runs you allow your opponent to score the better. It’s particularly true in the post-season, where every run scored should be precious.

However, in the regular season, you have to score to be successful. A look at the six highest scoring teams in the American League shows five teams which should make the post-season: New York, Baltimore, Boston, Kansas City, Minnesota, and Houston.

The Guardians are just outside that group, averaging 4.47 runs per game whereas the Astros are at 4.62.

And just when the Guards need to string some wins and hopefully clinch a division title and a first-round bye in the playoffs, their hitting is taking another ill-timed snooze.

Yes, they did come home after a sweep over the Chicago White Sox, but the Pale Hose will likely have the worst record in the history of modern baseball, on track to lose more than 120 games in 2024, and frankly, it is not as though the offense was clicking in the Windy City, scoring just 16 runs in the three games.

In the six contests prior to last night not played against a terrible team, the Guardians have scored 1, 3, 2, 0, 2, and 1 runs, a total of 9 runs for an average of 1.5 runs per game.

And as with the “slump” that occurred in August, the Guardians’ best three hitters aren’t producing. This isn’t to put blame on Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Steven Kwan, but it shows how much Steven Vogt’s roster depends on them for offense. Here are the numbers over the last 28 days:

Ramirez: .228 BA, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 683 OPS.
J. Naylor: .232, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 663 OPS
Kwan: .165, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 496 OPS and 309 on base percentage.

And it’s not as though their teammates are picking them up. Yes, Andres Gimenez and Brayan Rocchio have done better the past couple of weeks, but make no mistake, this is still a team with major offensive issues.

The league average on base percentage is .309. The Guardians have four players over that threshold on the team, the three players mentioned previously plus David Fry (.357).

As a team, Cleveland is tenth in the AL in drawing walks and ninth in batting average. They have hit a lot more home runs this season, ranking 7th, up from last in 2023. Since the All-Star break, their on base percentage is .295.

Last night’s three-run rally? It started with a walk to Angel Martinez, who demonstrated some patience at the plate in his first tenure with the big club.

No one is asking this group to be the 1999 Cleveland Indians which scored over 1000 runs, the last MLB team to do so. But they can’t have periods like Thursday night, when they scored two runs on four hits in the first two innings, and then get one hit the rest of the way.

In short, good hitters draw walks. Take a look at the AL leaders in drawing bases on balls. You see names like Judge, Soto, Henderson, Guerrero, and Devers. What you won’t see is the name of anyone on the Guardians.

That’s something to take a look at this off-season for sure.

Don’t Look Now, But Playoffs Aren’t A Sure Thing For Guardians

For the first two months of this baseball season, the Cleveland Guardians were on a magic carpet. After beating Washington 7-1 on May 31st, they were 38-19 and had a four-game lead in the AL Central Division.

Since that victory, the Guards are 36-36. Notice the number of games played in each segment we’ve talked about. They have been a “meh” team longer than they were great.

We remember in 1984 after the Detroit Tigers got off to a 35-5 start, someone asked manager Sparky Anderson about Toronto, who the interviewer told Anderson had the same record as Detroit since a specific date.

Anderson snapped back and told the media person something to the effect that it was too bad the season didn’t begin on the later date.

So, while the Guardians have been struggling for two and a half months, they’ve earned their spot on top of the division because of the fast start.

But that only lasts so long.

Their division lead is down to just two games over the Royals and Twins, but what is more disturbing is a playoff spot isn’t even guaranteed. Their lead over Boston, the first team out if you will is .5 games, and really is 7.5 because the Guards won the season series.

However, if you don’t get things straightened out soon, even that lead could dwindle. And there is still plenty of baseball to be played.

We have talked about the offense lately, and since the All-Star break, a period of 34 games, the offense has scored three runs or less 19 times! And in the last 17 games, dating back to the doubleheader loss to Arizona on August 7th, they have scored four or more runs in just five games.

One huge problem has been the production of two of the team’s three best offensive players since the break.

Jose Ramirez has been, well Jose Ramirez, hitting .273 with 9 homers in that time, but prior to last night, he was in a 1 for 20 slide over the last week, and during the past 14 days, he’s 9 for 42.

Josh Naylor is batting .214 with a 703 OPS after the break. Before last night’s 13-5 win over Texas, he was in a 1 for 22 slump, and 7 for 44 over the past two weeks.

As for Kwan, who batted .352 heading into the Midsummer Classic, he’s batted just .206 with a 603 OPS since. And he’s 3 for 24 over the past week, and 7 for 47 over the past 14 days.

That means over the last seven days, that trio, without a doubt the Guardians’ best hitters, have gone 4 for 46. And with the rest of the lineup not looking like the 1999 Indians, who scored over 1000 runs, it’s no wonder the Guardians cannot score runs.

Some Guardians’ broadcasters and supporters will point out that some other good teams have struggled lately. While that’s true, over the last 50 games, Cleveland’s record is worse than all of the contenders, and actually ranks with teams like the Angels, Nationals, and Rockies.

Those are teams you shouldn’t want to be associated with.

There are still 33 games to be played, and who knows, maybe one solid game, a walkoff win, Ramirez and Naylor get hot, Kwan has a four hit night, something turns it around for the Guardians and they go on a run.

But it’s fair to be concerned. We are sure Steven Vogt and the front office are, even if they don’t show it publicly. It would be a shame if this season, which started out as so much fun, didn’t wind up with baseball in October.

Offense Has Replaced Rotation As Guardians’ Chief Issue

All season long, we have worried about the starting pitching of the Cleveland Guardians. Is the rotation good enough? Is it providing enough innings to protect the bullpen? Will they be able to overcome the injury to Shane Bieber and the ineffectiveness of Logan Allen and Triston McKenzie?

At this point, the rotation is what it is, a group of pitchers who hopefully can give the team an effective six innings of work and turn it over to a dominant bullpen.

Since the All-Star break, the Guardians have turned into team streak, winning five in a row, losing seven straight, followed by another five-game winning streak, and now a three-game losing skein.

Unless Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb start pitching like Sam McDowell and Corey Kluber, this is how the Guardians’ starting pitching will be going forward. And now, Cobb is going to miss time with a broken fingernail.

However, the offense is sputtering. In April, the Guardians were a surprise with the bats, averaging 5.24 runs per game. They were still going strong in May, scoring 5.04 runs. In June, that figure dropped to 4.56 and in July, it dipped further to 3.36.

This month, that figure has improved slightly to 4.23 runs per contest, but overall, since the All-Star break, they have scored 3.76 runs/game. The team batting average is .222 (compared to .243 prior) the on base percentage is .279 (.316 before), and the slugging percentage has dropped from .405 to .368.

The hitting has become too reliant on the home run, mostly because the batting average is subpar, and no one seems to be drawing walks either. Pitchers seemed to have learned the best way to attack the Cleveland lineup is to throw a lot of changeups, and there hasn’t seemed to be adjustments.

It seems you can count the number of hits going to the opposite field on one hand over the last week. For us, it seems like it is just at bat after at bat trying to pull pitches on the outside half on the plate, resulting in weak grounders to second base and/or shortstop.

Individually, the numbers are equally ugly. The only two players who have OPS over 750 are Jose Ramirez and Jhonkensy Noel, and the latter is still striking out in roughly one-third of his at bats.

Only Josh Naylor has an OPS above 700 at 746. Every other single Guardians’ player is below 700, and the league average is 704.

Coincidentally, that trio are also the only Cleveland players with on base percentages over .300. Cleveland ranks in the bottom five in batting average, walks, and OPS since the break, and is 22nd out of 30 teams in runs scored.

They’ve been shut out four times in that span.

Simply put, you have to score runs in the regular season, and the Guardians have scored two or fewer runs in 11 of the 29 games played since the All-Star Game. Amazingly, they’ve won three of those contests.

They put up three runs in an additional five games, meaning in over half the games played after the break, they have put up three runs or less. And again, that’s a tough way to win baseball games.

Earlier, when they were scoring more runs, the team seemed to work counts and draw more walks. This is reflected in the monthly OBP as a team, which are as follows in chronological order: .321, .312, .322, .285, .286.

Perhaps playing guys who will take a walk would help. We’ve already advocated to bring back Angel Martinez, whose .306 OBP (12 walks) would rank 5th on the team if he were called back up.

This is not a team that can sit back and wait for the home run. They have to get guys on base and move them. That’s been lacking for the past six weeks or so, and if they can’t start scoring runs, it will be tough to hold off Minnesota and Kansas City.

The Diminishing Skill Of Getting On Base

When the famed Baseball Abstract came out in the 1980’s, Bill James introduced the concept of OPS, writing that a player was a great offensive player if he could get on base 35% of the time while maintaining a .450 slugging percentage.

The reasoning was the player had the ability to get on base frequently and the slugging percentage measured how the player could advance runners, getting extra base hits, which is measured by slugging.

That made an 800 OPS the gold standard for hitters. That number started to be regarded as the measure of offensive success, but that led to younger baseball analysts thinking players with a .300 on base percentage and .500 slugging percentage were great hitters.

Those players generally tend to be guys who swing for the fences in most at bats, with high strikeout, low walk rates (hence the low on base percentage). Joey Gallo is the poster boy for us, with people telling us Gallo was an offensive force, piling up 800 OPS figures with batting averages of .209 (.333 OBP, 2017) and .206 (.312 OBP, 2018).

We know it is not fashionable to say this anymore, but no one who hits under .220 is a good hitter.

In 2024, the major league average OPS is 714, an on base percentage of .313 paired with a slugging percentage of .401.

Just a few years ago, good teams had several players that fit the .350/.450 model. For example, the 2015 Kansas City Royals that won the World Series had Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Kendrys Morales, and Ben Zobrist.

The 2016 Indians had Jose Ramirez, Tyler Naquin, and Carlos Santana who did it, while Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor were very close.

Right now, the Arizona Diamondbacks lead the majors in runs scored and they have three such batters: Ketel Marte, Jake McCarthy, and Joc Pederson. The Yankees have scored the next most runs and they have just two in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.

We watch the Orioles when they were in town and thought their lineup was pretty solid top to bottom, but they also have only two in Gunnar Henderson and surprisingly Ryan O’Hearn.

This year’s Guardians’ team, 13th in the big leagues in runs scored have just one in Steven Kwan (382/480/862). The next closest is kind of a surprise in David Fry (369/441/810). The Guards are 17th in on base percentage at .310, just below the league average.

The reason for that is that Kwan and Fry are the only Cleveland players who can get on base at a 35% or better clip. Among players with over 200 plate appearances, they do have three hitters who are slugging .450 or better–Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Kwan.

Our point is the Guardians do not have a lot of real good hitters and the offense could be better if they had more hitters who got on base more often. On the other hand, the art of getting on base seems to be on the decline in the sport, and that’s a shame.

As James also said, the game is measured by the number of outs, not a time clock (pitch clock not withstanding). A 1.000 slugging percentage can be achieved by going 1 for 4 with a home run. If you have a 1.000 on base percentage, your team keeps batting in the first inning.

It’s Been Frustrating For Guardians’ Fans At Times, But The Wins Keep Coming

The last month for the Cleveland Guardians has been fascinating to be sure. Prior to last night, the offense has struggled in most games, with a team batting average of .223 and an OPS of 625.

By comparison, here is their OPS for the first three months of the season–April: 719, May: 715, June: 756. It’s a stark drop off to be sure.

Despite this, they are still 12-12 for the month with one game remaining against the Tigers, who Cleveland will have played 10 times by the time the calendar turns to August.

There is no question that a lack of hitting is the most frustrating thing for a fan to watch, and seeing your favorite team being shut out six times in a month certainly heightens fan angst.

We are no exception. Seeing the Guardians getting blanked by Tyler Phillips, Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley or a host of Tigers’ relievers drives us crazy too.

However, the amazing bullpen has allowed Steven Vogt’s squad to tread water, to not go into a period where they lose 15 of 20 games because the offense cannot produce runs.

That is truly remarkable.

Again, we get the frustration level. We feel it as well. But the Guardians still have the best record in the American League and the second-best record in baseball at 63-42.

Since the all-star break, Cleveland has won games 5-4, 2-1, 3-1, and 4-3. Before the Mid-Summer Classic, the won back-to-back games against the Giants by identical 5-4 scores. They scored four runs in a three-game series in Tampa and managed to win one of the contests.

They are 7-3 in one-run games during July, meaning in games not decided by a single tally, they are 4-8. This means many of their games are either nail biters or ones a viewer can watch something else after the fifth inning.

It is true that many of the top teams in the AL have also been going through a tough spell, the Orioles and Mariners are 9-12 in July, the Yankees are 8-13. Boston is 11-10, but have lost seven of their last nine.

The Guards, who have been one of the highest scoring teams in the league over the first three months of the season, are now sitting in the middle of the pack, seventh, and are now behind their division rivals, Minnesota and Kansas City in generating runs.

And frankly, the ballclub needs Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, and Josh Naylor to produce first and foremost.

Before last night’s performance, Ramirez had a 632 OPS with just a single home run and just six extra base hits and the same number of RBIs for the month. Naylor has only two dingers and an OPS of 665 and just five non-singles, while Kwan’s numbers aren’t bad, he has come down from the unworldly pace he was at, with a .275 batting average and 730 OPS since July 1st.

It is quite evident the real star of this Guardians’ team is the bullpen. When Cleveland has the lead after six innings (and sometimes less), Cade Smith, Scott Barlow, Hunter Gaddis, and the game’s best closer, Emmanuel Clase will lock it down.

That doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be nice to ease the workload of those guys though. It would bode well for the rest of the year and the post-season (fingers crossed) if the starting rotation picked up more of the load.

Those guys have kept this team out of long losing streaks, and despite the frustration of watching a team struggle to score runs, the Guardians are holding their own in the pennant chase.

People On The Spot In Second Half For Guards

The All-Star Game is over, and the Guardians contributed to the American League’s victory with an RBI single from David Fry, and Emmanuel Clase’s save, his second in the Midsummer Classic.

It’s back to the regular season grind on Friday night with a seven game homestand against San Diego and Detroit. And we will see a lot of the Guardians at Progressive Field for the rest of the year with 40 of the remaining 69 games at home.

There are key figures for the team in the second half, some with names and others will come to light as the rest of the campaign plays out. Here are some key people and/or situations to watch for starting this weekend:

Gavin Williams is a big key for the starting rotation especially with Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen currently in AAA. Williams missed most of the season to date recovering from an elbow issue which occurred in spring training.

In his three starts so far, he’s pitched 14.1 innings compiling a 3.77 ERA. The first number isn’t good, but the second number is solid. Because he’s still building up from his late start, if he can start giving Steven Vogt at least six effective innings in each start, that will go a long way toward easing the burden off the bullpen.

He’s been throwing in the upper 90’s in his starts, it’s a matter of pounding the strike zone and being able to throw his breaking stuff for strikes.

If that happens, it will provide a huge boost to the starting rotation.

The offense has struggled lately, most because Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez haven’t hit like they have all year over the last week or so. That’s not a criticism, it’s just that they were putting up ridiculous number which probably weren’t sustainable.

Those two and Josh Naylor have been carrying the attack all year. Kwan leads the AL in hitting and Ramirez and Naylor are 2nd and 3rd in the league in RBIs.

Someone has to step up and help. In April and May, that was Fry, who was setting a blistering pace early and came up with big hit after big hit.

Who can emerge in the second half?

Perhaps it’s Angel Martinez. Martinez has made a big impact since being called up, playing several positions and putting up an 850 OPS in just 56 plate appearances. The thing we like about him? He has eight walks and seven strikeouts.

He seems to understand the strike zone and is willing to take walks. That’s a big help when the hits aren’t falling.

The front office is also among the people to watch. The Guardians currently have the best record in the American League. Right now, their path to the post-season is not winning the usually weak Central Division.

They have a chance to get a bye into the Division Series and avoid the best-of-three wild card round. To do that, the front office needs to improve the current roster.

The organization still has a plethora of middle infielders, and they upgraded their farm system by taking Travis Bazzana with the first overall pick in Sunday’s draft, making him the organization’s top prospect.

They did it in 2016 and it paid off with an American League pennant. This group deserves the same consideration especially if it rights itself after the break.

Evaluating The Guards First Half

The Cleveland Guardians have the best record in the American League at 58-37, but kind of limped into the All-Star break losing 11 of their last 18 games. While it’s true that many of the other teams with good records have struggled lately as well, that doesn’t mean all of those teams will rebound.

So, while we are not worried about the Guardians right now, we do have a level of concern. For example, the Mariners had a 10 game lead in the AL West a few weeks ago, and have lost 18 of their last 25, and now the lead is just one.

One of the troubling things is this stretch came against AL Central Division teams and a Tampa Bay squad that is treading around the .500 mark.

The offense, which has scored the 4th most runs per game in the AL this year at 4.78, an increase from 4.09 for all of 2023, hasn’t produced, averaging just 3.4 runs per contest in those 18 games. In that stretch, Cleveland has put up nine runs once, eight runs once, and seven runs twice.

Needless to say, that means there were some droughts, and the Guardians scored three runs or less in ten of the last 18 games. That makes it difficult to win.

The offense isn’t a huge concern because a big part of the problem is Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez aren’t hitting. Over the last 14 days, Kwan is batting .283 (well below his .352 season mark) and Ramirez is hitting .216 with no homers and just one run batted in.

Another all-star, David Fry, is not hitting either, going just 3 for 30 in that span. When one third of your lineup isn’t producing and they are your better offensive players, it’s going to be difficult to put runs on the board.

Steven Vogt has done a very good job in his first year, but let’s face it, things have been going swimmingly so far and this is the first rough patch for the Guardians. What does the skipper and his staff do to get the team righted?

There is an old basketball saying that if you never play your bench, you will never have a bench. We are reminded of this with Vogt’s use of the bullpen this season.

The Guardians need length out of the starting rotation, but Vogt has a quick hook with the starters, sometimes pulling them prematurely. The bullpen is so good it works out, but if you don’t allow the starters to go deeper into games, they are never going to be able to do so.

We would also like to see more stability in the lineup. We get the “beat today’s starter” philosophy, but it seems some of the players who got the Guardians off to their red-hot early pace have fallen by the wayside.

For example, Daniel Schneemann, who got off to a great start after coming up from Columbus is now in the lineup most days despite hitting .185 with a 676 OPS in the last 28 days with 23 strikeouts in 76 plate appearances (30.2% rate). And he’s played some at shortstop (to get his bat in the lineup), and he made two critical errors there over the weekend.

The one rookie who does continue to impress is Angel Martinez, who seems to have a great grasp of the strike zone so far (8 BB, 7 K), and looks very comfortable in the #2 hole. We would find an everyday spot for him right now.

As for Fry, it could be that he is overexposed a bit and needs to go back to a platoon role where he plays mostly against southpaws.

The influx of young players could be due to the front office wanting some extended looks at players before the trading deadline. So, the herd could be thinned when the calendar turns to August.

When the season resumes on Friday, the Guardians should have a bit of a sense of urgency to get things turned around quickly.

On the other hand, Cleveland has 40 of its remaining 67 games at Progressive Field, including 16 of the last 19 contests. That could be a big advantage down the stretch.

Five All-Stars, But Another Starter Sent To The Minors

The Cleveland Guardians have one of the best records in the American League to date, so it figures they would be well represented on the AL All-Star team.

The Guardians are sending five players. Jose Ramirez and Emmanuel Clase are kind of perennials, with Ramirez making his sixth mid-summer classic, and Clase has now made three in a row.

With his .364 batting average and 956 OPS, Steven Kwan was a shoo-in to be named to the team, and it was a bonus that he was elected as a starter, meaning Cleveland will have two starters as Ramirez will also be in the starting lineup.

Josh Naylor was picked for the first time, although he was probably snubbed a year ago when he was hitting .305 with 11 homers and 64 RBIs at the break. This season he has even more ribbies (3rd in the AL with 66) and has already set a new career high in circuit clouts with 21.

The biggest surprise was David Fry, who started the season as basically a platoon player, but has put up tremendous numbers with a .305 batting average (920 OPS), 8 HR and 33 RBIs. The super utility player came into the 2024 season with 113 big league plate appearances, and has already caught, and played 1B, 3B, LF, and RF for Steven Vogt this season.

Even with the good news regarding the honoring of several players, the Guardians made another move involving their starting rotation over the weekend.

Logan Allen was sent back to AAA after compiling a 5.67 ERA over 18 starts. Allen allowed 100 hits and 35 walks over the 87.1 innings he has thrown this season, and has given up 18 home runs, tied for third most in the AL (FYI, Triston McKenzie is 2nd in this department).

Because of ineffectiveness or injury, the Guardians are now without three of the pitchers who began the year in the starting rotation. Based on that, it has to be considered rather amazing that the Guards sit at the top of the Central Division standings.

Since the All-Star game is next week and teams are off through next Thursday, it will allow both Allen and McKenzie to get an extra start in AAA before they are needed after the San Diego series coming out of the break.

It gives the organization a chance to regroup, so to speak, and the only immediate question will be who starts Thursday afternoon in Detroit, which would be Allen’s turn.

Gavin Williams gave the team 5.1 innings last night, and if Ben Lively and Tanner Bibee can give the team length tonight and tomorrow, this could be the scenario for Thursday.

We could see a combination of Pedro Avila and newcomer Spencer Howard in the series’ finale. Howard, a right-hander, was picked up over the weekend from San Francisco, after posting a 5.63 ERA in 24 innings with the Giants.

For his career, he has a 6.93 ERA in 139 innings, allowing 170 hits in those frames, so let’s just say we are less than enthusiastic about the move. Even worse, in his only AL experience with Texas, he posted an 8.37 ERA.

On June 24th, he did pitch 4.2 innings against the Cubs, not allowing a run and fanning eight, so there’s that.

Let’s hope the organization can find something that works for him, but they may have dealt for him with the idea of getting the team through the all-star break.

If You Want To Complain About The Guardians, Have A Legit Beef

We are often asked if it is easier to write about a team when they are playing well or struggling, and it’s a simple answer really, when a team is not playing well, you are always able to write about things they can do to improve.

Currently, the Cleveland Guardians sit at 480-26 and have a seven game lead in the AL Central over Minnesota and 7.5 games over Kansas City. They have a nine game lead in the loss column.

Yet, we continue to read from folks how players currently at Columbus could help them. Offensively, there are two things a player can do, get on base and move runners who are already on base (i.e. on base percentage and slugging percentage).

The current average on base average in the American League is .309. Of the players who get the most at bats on the Guardians, there is one player who falls well below that threshold, Bo Naylor, currently at .253.

The average slugging percentage is .393. There are many Guardians who fall below the league average in this department, but as a team, Cleveland sits at .401, most due to the efforts of Jose Ramirez (.521), Josh Naylor (.502) and Steven Kwan (.545).

One thing people do is look at minor league statistics and equate them to the big leagues. That, of course, is ridiculous. The minor leagues are the minor leagues for a reason, the best players in the sport aren’t there. So, if you look at what a player is doing in Columbus, you have to figure those numbers will come down when they get to the big club.

We’ve seen it already. Kyle Manzardo was raking in AAA and then struggled with the Guardians. He was walking at a very high rate in the minors, and then had a 23:3 strikeout to walk ratio in the bigs.

We are guilty of it too, but we try to look at the biggest weakness of the team compared to the rest of the league. Right now, the Cleveland starting rotation has the worst WAR in the AL. That’s why the front office should be trying to upgrade that spot.

For the record, the other spots where the Guardians are below average are at catcher and in right field. Everywhere else, including the two spots most people seem to refer to, shortstop and centerfield, they are better or at league average.

The organization has done a great job promoting Daniel Schneemann, who was red hot at AAA, and so far, his offensive success has carried over to the big-league level. It helps that he is versatile enough to play all over the diamond.

If you are a contending team, and no doubt the Guardians are that sure you might catch lightning in a bottle with a minor league prospect, but the reality says you need to get someone who has had major league success.

We like developing players like everyone else, but if we are going to give up a higher tier prospect, we want to fill the biggest hole on the current roster. And right now, that’s the rotation.

Yes, Gavin Williams should be back soon, but really, we hope he pitches like he did a year ago, but it wouldn’t be prudent for the organization to put all their eggs in that basket.

If you want to give up a top five or even top ten player in your organization, you go get a proven big-league starter. One that can pitch in a playoff series.

You don’t bank on prospects.

Can’t Focus On One Thing In Evaluating Baseball Players

Baseball is changing, and we don’t mean the rule changes put forth by the commissioner a few years ago. For the record, we like the pitch clock and don’t have an issue with limiting the number of pick off throws by a pitcher.

As for the “ghost runner” in extra innings? Well, you can’t win them all, right Rob Manfred?

Over the past 40 years, there have been many new statistics, most of them add a lot to the game and give more information as to how valuable a player can be. Others, such as numbers reflecting expected numbers, tell both fans and front offices to be patient with players, particularly young ones.

A statistic that has come under fire recently, mostly because of a comment made by ESPN’s Michael Wilbon, is exit velocity. Quite frankly, it is cool to measure how hard players are hitting the baseball.

One issue among some fans is they take a number like exit velocity, and it is the only thing they look at. For Cleveland fans, Steven Kwan has a very low exit velocity, but there is no question he is a good hitter.

Two-time batting champ (and hitting for a high average still helps teams) Luis Arraez also doesn’t hit the ball that hard. Yet, in an interview a couple of years ago, Shane Bieber said he was one of the players he hated to face.

The point is while it is something that can be measured, it really has nothing to do with how good a player is performing.

We hear this locally when hearing about Guardians’ infielder Gabriel Arias. His fans constantly point out how hard he hits the baseball. Unfortunately, he doesn’t hit it all that often. He has an average exit velo of 89.8, and a hard hit rate of 39.7%. He also strikes out 31.7% of the time.

Compare those number to Kwan, a much more accomplished hitter. His exit velocity average is 82.3 MPH, and his hard hit percentage is 18%.

Let’s compare Arias to a less accomplished major league player, Tyler Freeman. He has an average exit velocity of 89.1 MPH, a tick below Arias, and his hard-hit percentage is 41.4%. His K rate is just 15.9%.

Those numbers would indicate why the Guardians’ front office have stayed with Freeman longer despite struggling early this year.

By the way, the Guardian who ranks 7th in hard hit percentage. It’s Jose Ramirez. And Arias’ exit velocity is also a tad higher than Ramirez. The difference is the five-time all-star only strikes out in 11.3% of his plate appearances.

We understand to market itself, especially to younger fans, baseball tries to point out excitement, the spectacular play, the rocket off the bat, etc. However, lost in that is what helps teams win games, which is the object of the sport.

It’s not sexy or exciting to hit a ground ball to the right side to move a runner to third base with less than two outs or hit a sacrifice fly, but it helps winning.

Sabermetrics is a good thing, but it seems to have gone overboard. A recent question about what the biggest problem about baseball was recently asked, and someone said the overuse of analytics in today’s game.

There were a lot of responses agreeing with that sentiment.

The point is in evaluating players there are many things to look at, no one should focus on just one. And also, people need to remember the game is not a skills competition, they keep score for a reason.