A Pair Of Puzzling Moves For The Guardians

Hopefully, the Cleveland Guardians let us in on the grand plan pretty soon. All of their fans would like to think the organization wouldn’t take a step back after a trip to the American League Championship Series, but right now, there has to be some anxiousness.

That’s what has to be the thought after the Guardians traded Josh Naylor, who hit 31 home runs and knocked in 108 for Cleveland in 2024 to the Arizona Diamondbacks for right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi, who had a devilish 6.66 ERA last season.

The Guardians ranked just 7th in the AL in runs scored for the season, and in the second half of the season they were near the bottom, and yet they dealt one of their best offensive players.

There are extenuating circumstances to this deal.

First, Naylor would be a free agent after next season, and with Kyle Manzardo ready to play first base, the odds of signing Naylor long term were slim, especially because it’s the Guardians.

The return wasn’t much. Cecconi is 25 years old and has pitched 104 big league innings, sporting a 6.06 ERA, allowing 117 hits. We would guess unless he has a tremendous spring training, he will open the season in AAA.

Since the season ended, the organization shed a large contract and a potential free agent for a young pitcher who should be in the starting rotation, although he has only 30 big league starts.

Not really looking like an organization that is “going for it” in terms of taking the next step and getting to the World Series.

However, the Hot Stove season is not over and hopefully there is a big move coming soon.

It does appear the ownership wants to stay in the same area as last year in terms of payroll, despite an attendance boost and some nice post-season gates. We’ll probably soon hear from the local media defenders of the Dolan family and how tough they have it financially in a small market.

Making the trade even more confusing was the signing of veteran Carlos Santana, whom the Guards will be paying $12 million next year, albeit on a one year deal. In his third stint with Cleveland, he seems to be a platoon partner with Manzardo, having hammered right-handed pitching with Minnesota last season at a 934 OPS.

He had a .354 on base percentage vs. righties.

The switch-hitter has played 1334 games with the organization and ranks tied for 6th in homers with 216, and second in walks.

Right now, the Guardians aren’t as good as they were last season. We like Manzardo, but he’s still not a proven player, so Cleveland has question marks on the right side of the infield.

They are still short in the starting pitching depth as well. We have maintained we were okay with a deal for Naylor if it were a baseball trade for a proven starter, but that’s not what it was.

So, the front office is still on the clock. They need to improve this team, which won 92 games a year ago in a surprisingly tough division.

Fans will be understandably upset, but they aren’t the reason another move needs to be made. The front office traded one of their leaders, which won’t sit well in the clubhouse.

It also may not sit well with Jose Ramirez, who took a hometown discount to remain here.

Hopefully, Guardians’ fans won’t have to wait long for some much-needed good news.

Looking At Second Base in ’25 For Guardians

With the winter meetings now history and the Cleveland Guardians making two trades, which both came out of nowhere, we can take a look at how the team shapes up, although there is still plenty of time to make moves with spring training not starting for two months.

Friday, team president Chris Antonetti named four candidates to play second base in place of Andres Gimenez: Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, Daniel Schneemann, and rookie Juan Brito.

We said the other day that Brito should get the first shot. Why? It’s kind of weird to say this, but partially because we haven’t seen him in the big leagues.

Arias will be 25 next season and has 563 plate appearances with the Guardians. He has a 624 OPS in those at bats, and a strikeout to walk ratio of 182:42 and a 32.3% K rate. He has pop when he hits the ball, and that mesmerizes certain fans, but he simply hasn’t been very productive.

Freeman will be 26 and has the most big league at bats out of the quartet with 637 plate appearances and a 632 OPS. His strikeout to walk ratio is 94:42. He was the regular CF in April and May and was doing an acceptable job, but had a slump in June and after Schneemann was called up, lost playing time.

He has an 802 OPS in AAA, which is a pretty good pedigree.

The left-handed hitting Schneemann got off to a great start in AAA last year and carried it over to the big club, hitting .263 in June with a .362 on base average. After the All-Star Game, he hit .202 with a 555 OPS. The organization loved his versatility, but our opinion was the coaching staff loved him a little more than he deserved. He will be 28 this coming season.

Brito is a 23-year-old switch hitter who came over from Colorado for Nolan Jones. He has a career OPS in the minors of 834, including 807 last year in Columbus when he hit .256 with 88 walks and 61 extra base hits.

The Guardians hit more home runs last year than in 2023, but the number of doubles went way down. Brito had 40 doubles for the Clippers last year.

He doesn’t have a great reputation with the glove, and the organization started playing him at 1B, 3B, and RF last season, but as we say many times, get the lead and you can put a glove in the game, either Arias or Freeman, because we don’t think too much of Schneemann’s glove.

Also, have to think Angel Martinez is also in the mix, but his 635 OPS might suggest he needs more time in AAA, as he only has 169 plate appearances and will only be 23-years-old.

Despite getting Luis Ortiz, the Guardians still need starting pitching. Yes, they kept Shane Bieber, but he likely won’t be ready until the second half of the season.

We wonder what the cost would be for a guy like Lance Lynn (7-4, 3.84 ERA, 109 Ks in 117 IP for St. Louis) or a Jose Quintana (10-10, 3.75 ERA in 170 IP for the Mets) would cost.

Both guys would soak up some much-needed innings for Steven Vogt.

And yes, we would still consider Hunter Gaddis for a move back to the rotation. He’s more valuable getting 15-18 outs than three.

Antonetti did say the team has some money to spend with the trade of Gimenez. We still believe the Guardians should increase the payroll from last year anyway, but the reason for the deal was to get out from what was looking to be a bad contract in a couple of years.

Let’s hope that wasn’t media speak by the organization.

Guards Make Two Deals And Get A Much Needed Starter

It was about one month ago that we wrote about the Cleveland Guardians overpaying for defense (https://wordpress.com/post/clevelandsportsperspective.com/21673). Three of their top five contracts (Andres Gimenez, Myles Straw, and Austin Hedges) are for players who are great with the glove, not so much with the bat.

Our theory was that there are tons of players in the minor leagues who can pick it, there is no reason to overpay for fielding. More money should be spent on hitting and pitching.

Essentially, the move the Cleveland Guardians made on Tuesday was dealing Gimenez, the best defensive second baseman in the game, for a starting pitcher, an area of huge need.

We cannot complain about that.

While we are no fans of the Dolan family ownership, we don’t view these moves as a salary dump. Cleveland would have had to pay Gimenez over $23 million per year starting in 2027, and let’s face it, in Gimenez’ four seasons with the Guardians, he was above average as a hitter only in 2022.

In exchange, the Guardians get Luis Ortiz, who made 15 starts with the Pirates a year ago, pitching 135.2 innings with a 3.32 ERA (3.22 as a starter). He struck out 107 hitters, walking only 42.

The 26-year-old right-hander figures to be in the Cleveland rotation to start the season, and let’s face it, the Guards need starting pitchers.

They also received three minor leaguers, all who have either never played professionally (Josh Hartle) or played in low A last season (Nick Mitchell from Toronto and Michael Kennedy from the Pirates). Those guys are lottery tickets.

And let’s face it, the Guardians system is loaded with middle infielders. We would think Juan Brito (807 OPS at AAA in ’24) would get the first shot at taking the spot. Brito, a switch-hitter, hit .256 with 21 homers at Columbus last season, but also drew 88 walks against 105 strikeouts.

His career lifetime on base percentage in the minors is .384.

Besides Brito, the Guardians also have Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, Daniel Schneemann, and/or Angel Martinez who can play second base next year. So, it can also be a move made from strength.

And you cannot forget the organizations’ best prospect is Travis Bazzana, the first overall pick in last year’s amateur draft. He could be arriving sometime during the upcoming season.

There is a difference between a salary dump and moving a contract that an organization doesn’t think is going to age well, and we think the Guardians did the latter.

We still think the Guardians’ ownership needs to spend more, and they freed up almost $11 million to the pool as that was what they were going to pay Gimenez this year. Hopefully, these funds can be used to sign or trade for another starting pitchers or another bat.

If the result of this trade is being able to get another solid starting pitcher or getting another solid hitter to play every day, then we are all in.

But if this is all the Guardians’ front office is going to do? Then they have probably kept the payroll the same after a good year at the gate and on the field. That won’t play well with the people who buy tickets.

Despite Baseball’s System, Guardians Need To Spend More

The first defection from the Cleveland Guardians occurred early Monday morning when it was announced that Matthew Boyd signed a two-year contract with the Chicago Cubs.

Since there are still two and a half months until spring training starts, we aren’t going to start hammering the front office and ownership about not improving a roster that got to the American League Championship Series in 2024.

Look, we get the playing field isn’t level for all teams in Major League Baseball. Bigger markets get more local broadcast revenue, and unlike the National Football League, these incomes aren’t pooled together and distributed evenly to all 30 teams.

And we still don’t understand how the Dodgers can use deferred money in some huge contracts in order to avoid the total deal counting towards the Competitive Balance tax.

It’s also true that every ownership of an MLB team is unbelievably rich and can probably afford to pay players more than they do. According to Baseballreference.com, the Guardians’ payroll is $20 million less than Milwaukee, $28 million less than Kansas City, and $44 million under what Tampa Bay pays.

No doubt, the Dolan family can spend more than they have.

Remember, they spent a significant amount of money on a campaign to get someone in the family in the US Senate. So, it’s not as though they will be visiting soup kitchens during the holidays.

While there are defenders of the Guardians’ ownership throughout the fandom, the reason for the critics is the lack of effort to go “all in” to win a title when the opportunity is there.

Yes, they did it in 2017 after the painful World Series loss to the Cubs, signing free agent Edwin Encarnacion, but that’s been the exception rather than the rule. After the surprising run to the playoffs in 2022 with the youngest team in baseball, they did sign Josh Bell as a free agent, but that wasn’t a huge splash.

There is no question the current Guardians need starting pitching and that’s why the news about Boyd going elsewhere was disappointing. Fans have to be wondering if Shane Bieber, who won’t be available until the middle of the season, is the next to go. We are guessing he will be in demand even though he won’t be ready on Opening Day 2025.

But going into next season with a rotation of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Ben Lively, and Triston McKenzie doesn’t scream contender. Especially when you can make a very good case the latter three are big question marks.

The organization is either going to have to spend some money or make some good old fashioned baseball trades in order to have a solid rotation heading into the season.

Nobody is saying the Guardians should be in the market for Juan Soto or even Blake Snell for that matter. They don’t have the same revenue stream (again, local broadcast revenue) as Los Angeles or New York.

However, the fans have showed up. The Guardians’ teams of the last three years are very fun groups and also likeable. Now, the ownership needs to step up and thank those fans.

There is still time, but let’s hope it’s not another off-season where nothing is done.

Will Guards Be Active This Winter? History Says No

The hot stove league is under way in baseball and the Cleveland Guardians had to do some tweaking to the roster to prepare for the winter meetings, which will take place in two weeks.

The most notable moves were the trade of Eli Morgan to the Cubs and that the DFA’d former top prospect George Valera. Valera suffered a ruptured patella tendon near the end of the season and probably won’t be playing baseball until well into the 2025 season, and we were not surprised to see the Guardians sign him to a minor league contract yesterday.

The Morgan deal was a bit of a surprise, but the team did deal from strength. The relief corps is strong and will hopefully be getting Trevor Stephan back from elbow surgery.

And they added Franco Aleman (1.99 ERA in 22.2 innings at AAA) and Nic Enright (1.06 ERA and 31 Ks in 17 IP at Columbus) to the 40-man roster.

For Morgan, the Guardians dealt for a lottery ticket, a Class A outfielder with some pop in Alfonsin Rosario. The downside of Rosario is there is a lot of swing and miss, as he fanned 32% of his at bats at the low A level. He did hit 16 homers and is only 20 years old. But we aren’t as excited about the return as some of the prospect enjoyers.

What will the Guardians do this winter? Despite the crazy rumors on other sites, mostly figments of someone’s imagination (i.e. it would be a shock if the Guardians’ signed Max Scherzer as a free agent), based on past experience, it won’t be an active winter for the front office.

We still see a need to add an impact bat in the outfield, and the starting rotation is also short at least one starter, maybe two. Will the Guardians be willing to get involved in the free agent market? Unlikely, unless there are some bargains out there as spring training gets closer.

Should Cleveland increase their payroll? Of course, they rank in the bottom five of the sport with the Tigers, Reds, Pirates, and A’s. On the other hand, the Guardians and the Pirates rank as in the top five youngest teams in the game, and Detroit 7th youngest.

Cleveland is 20th in attendance this past season, right behind the Orioles, who spend $23 million more in payroll. And they outdraw the Royals by about a half million fans, and KC spends almost $30 million more.

But reality says something different, so we don’t expect any big deals.

However, we would still like to see the front office clean up the glut of middle infielders still on the 40-man roster. The keystone starters will likely be Andres Gimenez and Brayan Rocchio, but you still have Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, Angel Martinez, and Juan Brito on the roster.

The Guards have used their versatility to make them useful, such as using Freeman and Martinez in the OF, and Brito started playing the outfield and first base at AAA this season.

Brito should be bidding for a big league gig this season, so you would think a couple of others need to be moved to make room for him.

And don’t forget the overall first pick in the ’24 draft, Travis Bazzana, will be involved in this mix sooner than later.

The winter meetings used to be exciting because of the wheeling and dealing, but it hasn’t been that way for years. In our opinion, that excitement is needed. It’s sad that some agents hold up the off-season process.

Do Browns Get The Most Coverage Because There Is More To Complain About?

With the Cleveland Browns going through another difficult season (and that’s putting it mildly), it brings to mind how sports are covered in northeast Ohio.

The best part of the Browns’ organization is probably the public relations department and whoever makes the decision on the broadcast rights. There are two sports talk stations in the city and the team decided to partner up with both of them, so both the AM and FM entities can claim to be “Home of the Browns”!

It is difficult to find a radio station on a Sunday morning that doesn’t have some sort of football programming on air. And because both stations are tied to the team, they dedicate airtime every day to the Browns, at least when Kevin Stefanski conducts his daily press conferences, in which he says pretty much nothing.

The question is why does the franchise with the least success in the area get talked about the most?

The Cleveland sports fan hasn’t had a lot of reason to puff out their collective chests over the last 60 years. The 2016 Cavaliers have the only league championship since the Browns won in 1964.

That’s a long time without a title parade in downtown Cleveland.

Because the basketball team had the best player in the sport in this century, the Cavs have played for the league championship five times in the last 18 seasons. They lost in the conference finals twice more, meaning they’ve been in their sports’ final four seven times since 2006-07.

And after James left, the organization has rebuilt and put themselves in a position to compete for another shot at a title in a relatively short amount of time.

As for baseball, the Indians/Guardians have been to three World Series in the last 30 years, getting to a seventh game twice in 1997 and 2016.

In a sport that is the toughest to get to the post-season (12 of 30 teams make the playoffs in MLB-40%, compared to 44% in the NFL and depending if you count the “play-in round”, two-thirds of NBA teams make it), the team on the corner of Carnegie and Ontario has made it to the playoffs 14 times since 1995.

They’ve reached the post-season six times in the last nine seasons.

As for the Browns, we understand the attachment for the team because it was ripped away from the city in 1995, but the team has never played in the Super Bowl, one of four teams that have never been there, and two of them (Jacksonville and Houston) weren’t in existence 30 years ago.

The other franchise, the Detroit Lions, may reduce that number to three after this season.

The Browns haven’t played for an NFL championship since before the merger in 1970, and that occurred in 1965. Since their three AFC title appearances in four years (1986-89), they’ve won two playoff games.

However, those two playoff wins are more games that they won in the 2016 and 2017 seasons combined, when they famously went 1-31 and 4-44 over a three year period.

Someone asked me once if it is easier to write about a team when it is winning or losing. Without a doubt it’s a losing team. More things to complain about.

Perhaps that’s why the Browns dominate the sports media in northeast Ohio. Based on the recent past, there are umpteen things to be dissatisfied with.

Do Guardians Overpay For Gloves?

Both of these things can be true. The Cleveland Guardians can and should spend more money on players, and the World Series between two big market behemoths indicate baseball needs to do something to even the playing field for all franchises.

In looking at the Cleveland projected payroll for the 2025 season, the highest paid player is of course the team’s resident superstar, Jose Ramirez. The next two are players known for their glove more than anything else in Andres Gimenez and Myles Straw.

This begs the question: Do the Guardians overpay for defense?

If the franchise is going to limit the amount of money spent on players to less than $100 million, we believe they need to examine where they would get the most bang for their buck.

We have noted this before, but offense (meaning scoring runs) is what gets teams into the playoffs. Of the top seven teams in runs scored in the American League this past season, six of them made by the post-season.

The same holds true in the National League.

So, if you are going to spend cash on something in the game, it should be on good hitters.

We aren’t saying defense isn’t important. Heck, the fifth inning of the fifth game of the World Series is proof of that. But, let’s face it, guys who can hit are extremely more difficult to come by. On the other hand, there are players who are tremendous defensively scattered all over the minor leagues.

We also say that no matter how good players are defensively, in order to hold a regular job in the big leagues, you have to be able to swing the bat.

The proof of that is the current third highest paid play on the Guardians’ payroll, Straw. Why did Straw spend most of last season at AAA and was recently outrighted to the minor leagues? He simply cannot hit.

Which brings us to Gimenez, who the Guardians will be paying $10.57 million next year, $15.57 million in 2026, and then $23.57 million in ’27, ’28, and ’29.

There is no question at all that Gimenez is the best defensive second baseman in the game. He has won three consecutive Gold Gloves and also won the Platinum Glove in 2023. The play he made in game four of the ALCS was just spectacular.

However, does he provide enough offense considering what the Guardians are paying him?

He has spent 3-1/2 years with the team and provided one excellent offense year in 2022 (.297/.371/.466/837) and one year at around league average in ’23 (.251/.314/.399/712).

Last season, his OPS slipped to 638, well below league average, mostly due a big drop off in power. Gimenez had 46 extra base hits in his very good ’22 season, and 47 in ’23. In 2024, that figure fell to just 32.

He is an excellent base stealer, swiping 80 bases in the last three seasons combined.

The Guardians probably were too quick to give him a big contract after 2022, much like they were with Straw after he came over from Houston and had a 739 OPS (.362 on base percentage) in 2021.

However, now the front office has a huge decision. If Gimenez doesn’t rebound offensively, they will be stuck with another huge contract without matching production.

We feel you need six or seven solid hitters in a contending lineup, so maybe the front office can build up the rest of the lineup so they can afford to pick Gimenez and his outstanding defense in the lineup.

And if the organization is trying to keep salaries under $100 million, and we would be surprised if they went over the threshold (not because they can’t, they could), then it might be prudent to move the second baseman this winter.

Maybe the Guardians would be better with a better bat, and a glove a tick below Andres Gimenez. Paying big cash and not getting offense doesn’t seem like a good way to allocate your resources.

Looking At Guardians’ Pitching, Especially The Rotation

That the Cleveland Guardians finished third in the American League in ERA this season was impressive considering the state of their starting rotation for much of the year.

At the start of the year, the rotation consisted of Shane Bieber, Logan Allen, Tanner Bibee, Carlos Carrasco, and Triston McKenzie. And Carrasco was in there because Gavin Williams was out with a sore elbow.

Because of injury and/or ineffectiveness, only Bibee was still there by the beginning of July, although Williams was coming back soon.

In the playoffs, Cleveland had games started by two pitchers who hadn’t thrown a pitch in the major leagues at the time of the July 31st trading deadline in Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb.

The strength of the pitching staff was the bullpen, led by what TBS’ Brian Anderson was calling the “Fearsome Foursome” during the playoffs: Tim Herrin, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and closer Emmanuel Clase.

Unfortunately, as we look ahead to 2025, the bullpen is usually the most volatile part of any baseball team. There is certainly no guarantee the relief corps will be as good as they were this season, particularly with the workload put on them.

All four of the pitchers mentioned were in the top ten in the AL in appearances.

It goes without saying that Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff need to improve the starting rotation going into next season.

We understand that Allen and McKenzie could rebound from very tough ’24 campaigns, but the organization needs to rebuild the depth they had for many seasons.

Bibee and Williams will be starters going into spring training. And they are probably the only sure things, and for a contending team, that’s simply not good enough.

Bieber is a free agent and will likely be out until June or July after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Will he sign a backloaded two-year deal with Cleveland like many pitchers in his situation do, or will he cast his lot with another team?

Boyd and Cobb are also free agents. Boyd could go for perhaps a big pay day this winter, and Cobb would be a back of the rotation arm if he comes back.

So, what can the front office do?

The closest minor league arm to the bigs is 25-year-old lefty Doug Nikhazy, who went 7-4 with a 2.98 ERA between Akron and Columbus, striking out a batter per inning.

We’ve also thought about moving Gaddis back to the rotation. Remember, he went to camp this past spring as a starter and was a starter in the minors before compiling a 1.59 ERA in ’24.

Why Gaddis? First, he’s 6’6″ and 260 pounds. But more importantly, he has a three-pitch mix, a very good fastball, slider and changeup. He wouldn’t be the first pitcher to do well out of the bullpen and become a solid starter either.

The only other alternative would be a trade. There have been several Josh Naylor rumors out there, and although the Guardians’ offense needs to improve, we could see moving him if the return is a proven starter.

Remember, the Guards do have Kyle Manzardo, who should be ready to play every day, so it would be a good, old fashioned baseball trade, not a salary dump.

We aren’t writing off pitchers like Allen and McKenzie, but the Guardians can’t really depend on them either. A team that has made it to the post-season two of the last three years and wants to get back in 2025, can’t afford a lot of questions in their rotation.

How Can Guards Score More Runs Next Year?

Before the season started, we felt the Guardians would be a .500 baseball team, but they got off to a tremendous start and won the AL Central with a 92-69 record and eventually lost in the Championship Series to the Yankees in five games.

When the 2025 season starts late next March in Kansas City, it will have been 77 years since the franchise has won the World Series. And yes, that’s the longest drought in the sport.

What can the Guardians do to defend their divisional title and also to get better in ’25? Today, we will focus on the offense.

Cleveland ranked 7th in the league in runs scored and the only playoff team that scored less was Detroit. Their team OPS was also 7th right at the league average at 703. They were slightly below average in getting on base and slightly above average in slugging.

All in all, they had an average offense.

By position, the Guardians were only above average at four spots: 1B (Josh Naylor), 3B (Jose Ramirez), LF (Steven Kwan), and DH.

We think the one thing the Guardians can focus on offensively is getting on base more often. The league average was .309 and only four players exceeded that: Kwan (.368), David Fry (.356), Ramirez (.335) and Josh Naylor (.320).

Last season, the Guardians made a concerted effort to hit with more power, and they did, hitting 61 more home runs, but it only raised the slugging percentage by 14 points.

How did that happen? They hit 49 less doubles and 11 less triples than they did in ’23.

Let’s look at Kwan, who people talked about his power increase because he went from five long balls to 14 in 2024.

What if we told you he actually had less extra base hits this season? He had 36 doubles, 7 triples last year. This year, just 16 doubles and three triples. Andres Gimenez dropped from 47 XBH to 32 in 2024.

Our point is the “be aggressive and try to drive the ball” approach worked in terms of hitting home runs, but it didn’t improve the extra base hit ability of the Guardians all that much.

The Yankees led the league in runs scored, but their offense is an anomaly because they have Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. They only had five regulars with OPS over 700, one more than Cleveland.

Baltimore was second in runs scored, and they had eight players over 700. Boston was third and they had seven players over that mark. Houston was next and they also had seven hitters over 700.

Can Lane Thomas provide enough offense to hold down a regular spot in the outfield? His combined OPS of 709 was about average. However, we liked his K rate and walk rate a lot better when he was with the Nationals.

At the very least, Fry and Kyle Manzardo should be fine at the DH spot, although the latter might deserve a shot at being an everyday player as the season progresses.

If Fry’s elbow issue isn’t something that requires surgery, getting him behind the plate more often would be a benefit because Austin Hedges doesn’t really help with a bat in his hands.

The tough decision could come up the middle where at least one of the regulars, Gimenez or Brayan Rocchio must do better offensively. Both were liabilities this year, although Rocchio had a solid post-season.

Simply put, the Guardians need better offense, and the best way would seem to be based on being more selective as hitters. Walks are good, when you walk, you aren’t making an out.

In the minor leagues, two top prospects stand out. Juan Brito walked 88 times (13.5% rate) in AAA last year, while Chase DeLauter also exceeded 10%. Brito could be a candidate to open the season with the big club, while DeLauter, who has battled injuries could arrive during the season.

The best way to add to the run total is to add more solid offensive players, not trading them.

Guardians Still In This Series, But Need A Win Tonight

Former Browns’ coach Marty Schottenheimer used to say no game was “must win” unless if you lose you are eliminated from playoff consideration. On that basis, today’s game three of the American League Championship Series isn’t that, but it’s pretty darn close.

The Guardians are down two games to none in the series, but it’s a best-of-seven series, so they aren’t dead yet, but you can get out the shovels if they can’t win tonight at home.

The big weaknesses that plagued the regular season, starting pitching and the offensive are again the culprits in dropping the first two games of the series.

In the post-season, the Guardians are 3-0 when they scored four runs or more and 0-4 when they tally three runs or less. They’ve put up just five runs in the first two games of the ALCS.

As for the starters, we knew Steven Vogt would rely heavily on the bullpen throughout the playoffs, but in game one, Alex Cobb pitched just 2.2 innings and Tanner Bibee went just 1.1 in the second game. That has caused the skipper to use guys in higher leverage situations than he wanted too.

That has caused some hiccups. Rookie Joey Cantillo came in game one and threw four wild pitches. For those questioning Vogt for going to Cantillo that early (and we were one of those people) understand he likely would have had to bring Cantillo in at some point. He used his best four relievers to the max in the last two games of the Tigers’ series, and no doubt they needed an extra day off.

And in game two, the bullpen was forced to cover 6.2 frames, and it could’ve been 7.2 if the Guards had taken the lead. He correctly used Cade Smith with the bases loaded trailing by two in the second to get out of the jam, which he did allowing just one more run to score.

The point is if either starter could get through four innings, it’s a much better situation for the bullpen. It’s that simple.

As for the offense, Cleveland has just three players with more than one hit in the two games: Brayan Rocchio, who continues to have a tremendous playoff, Steven Kwan, and Josh Naylor. New York has five.

The Yankees have seven extra base hits, the Guardians have just two, the home runs by Rocchio and Jose Ramirez. Cleveland hitters have struck out 21 times, New York hitters just 16.

The Guardians have problems in right field, where Jhonkensy Noel and Will Brennan have combined to go 2 for 25 with one walk in the seven games. And at catcher, Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges have combined to go 0 for 23.

We know Bo Naylor is struggling but pinch hitting for him early in a game just means more at bats for Hedges, who is on the roster for defense and leadership, but is a terrible hitter.

It’s not that the offense hasn’t had opportunities, they were 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position and left 11 men on in game two. Someone, anyone, needs to come through with a big hit.

Let’s be clear. Right now, this series is not over. A win in game three put the Guardians right back in it. There is pressure on Matthew Boyd to provide some innings and with four days off, no doubt, Emmanuel Clase is prepared to get Vogt at least five outs.

The Guards need a spark offensively. Kwan and Rocchio have gotten on base. They need someone to step up and drive them in.