Despite Baseball’s System, Guardians Need To Spend More

The first defection from the Cleveland Guardians occurred early Monday morning when it was announced that Matthew Boyd signed a two-year contract with the Chicago Cubs.

Since there are still two and a half months until spring training starts, we aren’t going to start hammering the front office and ownership about not improving a roster that got to the American League Championship Series in 2024.

Look, we get the playing field isn’t level for all teams in Major League Baseball. Bigger markets get more local broadcast revenue, and unlike the National Football League, these incomes aren’t pooled together and distributed evenly to all 30 teams.

And we still don’t understand how the Dodgers can use deferred money in some huge contracts in order to avoid the total deal counting towards the Competitive Balance tax.

It’s also true that every ownership of an MLB team is unbelievably rich and can probably afford to pay players more than they do. According to Baseballreference.com, the Guardians’ payroll is $20 million less than Milwaukee, $28 million less than Kansas City, and $44 million under what Tampa Bay pays.

No doubt, the Dolan family can spend more than they have.

Remember, they spent a significant amount of money on a campaign to get someone in the family in the US Senate. So, it’s not as though they will be visiting soup kitchens during the holidays.

While there are defenders of the Guardians’ ownership throughout the fandom, the reason for the critics is the lack of effort to go “all in” to win a title when the opportunity is there.

Yes, they did it in 2017 after the painful World Series loss to the Cubs, signing free agent Edwin Encarnacion, but that’s been the exception rather than the rule. After the surprising run to the playoffs in 2022 with the youngest team in baseball, they did sign Josh Bell as a free agent, but that wasn’t a huge splash.

There is no question the current Guardians need starting pitching and that’s why the news about Boyd going elsewhere was disappointing. Fans have to be wondering if Shane Bieber, who won’t be available until the middle of the season, is the next to go. We are guessing he will be in demand even though he won’t be ready on Opening Day 2025.

But going into next season with a rotation of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Ben Lively, and Triston McKenzie doesn’t scream contender. Especially when you can make a very good case the latter three are big question marks.

The organization is either going to have to spend some money or make some good old fashioned baseball trades in order to have a solid rotation heading into the season.

Nobody is saying the Guardians should be in the market for Juan Soto or even Blake Snell for that matter. They don’t have the same revenue stream (again, local broadcast revenue) as Los Angeles or New York.

However, the fans have showed up. The Guardians’ teams of the last three years are very fun groups and also likeable. Now, the ownership needs to step up and thank those fans.

There is still time, but let’s hope it’s not another off-season where nothing is done.

Will Guards Be Active This Winter? History Says No

The hot stove league is under way in baseball and the Cleveland Guardians had to do some tweaking to the roster to prepare for the winter meetings, which will take place in two weeks.

The most notable moves were the trade of Eli Morgan to the Cubs and that the DFA’d former top prospect George Valera. Valera suffered a ruptured patella tendon near the end of the season and probably won’t be playing baseball until well into the 2025 season, and we were not surprised to see the Guardians sign him to a minor league contract yesterday.

The Morgan deal was a bit of a surprise, but the team did deal from strength. The relief corps is strong and will hopefully be getting Trevor Stephan back from elbow surgery.

And they added Franco Aleman (1.99 ERA in 22.2 innings at AAA) and Nic Enright (1.06 ERA and 31 Ks in 17 IP at Columbus) to the 40-man roster.

For Morgan, the Guardians dealt for a lottery ticket, a Class A outfielder with some pop in Alfonsin Rosario. The downside of Rosario is there is a lot of swing and miss, as he fanned 32% of his at bats at the low A level. He did hit 16 homers and is only 20 years old. But we aren’t as excited about the return as some of the prospect enjoyers.

What will the Guardians do this winter? Despite the crazy rumors on other sites, mostly figments of someone’s imagination (i.e. it would be a shock if the Guardians’ signed Max Scherzer as a free agent), based on past experience, it won’t be an active winter for the front office.

We still see a need to add an impact bat in the outfield, and the starting rotation is also short at least one starter, maybe two. Will the Guardians be willing to get involved in the free agent market? Unlikely, unless there are some bargains out there as spring training gets closer.

Should Cleveland increase their payroll? Of course, they rank in the bottom five of the sport with the Tigers, Reds, Pirates, and A’s. On the other hand, the Guardians and the Pirates rank as in the top five youngest teams in the game, and Detroit 7th youngest.

Cleveland is 20th in attendance this past season, right behind the Orioles, who spend $23 million more in payroll. And they outdraw the Royals by about a half million fans, and KC spends almost $30 million more.

But reality says something different, so we don’t expect any big deals.

However, we would still like to see the front office clean up the glut of middle infielders still on the 40-man roster. The keystone starters will likely be Andres Gimenez and Brayan Rocchio, but you still have Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, Angel Martinez, and Juan Brito on the roster.

The Guards have used their versatility to make them useful, such as using Freeman and Martinez in the OF, and Brito started playing the outfield and first base at AAA this season.

Brito should be bidding for a big league gig this season, so you would think a couple of others need to be moved to make room for him.

And don’t forget the overall first pick in the ’24 draft, Travis Bazzana, will be involved in this mix sooner than later.

The winter meetings used to be exciting because of the wheeling and dealing, but it hasn’t been that way for years. In our opinion, that excitement is needed. It’s sad that some agents hold up the off-season process.

Do Browns Get The Most Coverage Because There Is More To Complain About?

With the Cleveland Browns going through another difficult season (and that’s putting it mildly), it brings to mind how sports are covered in northeast Ohio.

The best part of the Browns’ organization is probably the public relations department and whoever makes the decision on the broadcast rights. There are two sports talk stations in the city and the team decided to partner up with both of them, so both the AM and FM entities can claim to be “Home of the Browns”!

It is difficult to find a radio station on a Sunday morning that doesn’t have some sort of football programming on air. And because both stations are tied to the team, they dedicate airtime every day to the Browns, at least when Kevin Stefanski conducts his daily press conferences, in which he says pretty much nothing.

The question is why does the franchise with the least success in the area get talked about the most?

The Cleveland sports fan hasn’t had a lot of reason to puff out their collective chests over the last 60 years. The 2016 Cavaliers have the only league championship since the Browns won in 1964.

That’s a long time without a title parade in downtown Cleveland.

Because the basketball team had the best player in the sport in this century, the Cavs have played for the league championship five times in the last 18 seasons. They lost in the conference finals twice more, meaning they’ve been in their sports’ final four seven times since 2006-07.

And after James left, the organization has rebuilt and put themselves in a position to compete for another shot at a title in a relatively short amount of time.

As for baseball, the Indians/Guardians have been to three World Series in the last 30 years, getting to a seventh game twice in 1997 and 2016.

In a sport that is the toughest to get to the post-season (12 of 30 teams make the playoffs in MLB-40%, compared to 44% in the NFL and depending if you count the “play-in round”, two-thirds of NBA teams make it), the team on the corner of Carnegie and Ontario has made it to the playoffs 14 times since 1995.

They’ve reached the post-season six times in the last nine seasons.

As for the Browns, we understand the attachment for the team because it was ripped away from the city in 1995, but the team has never played in the Super Bowl, one of four teams that have never been there, and two of them (Jacksonville and Houston) weren’t in existence 30 years ago.

The other franchise, the Detroit Lions, may reduce that number to three after this season.

The Browns haven’t played for an NFL championship since before the merger in 1970, and that occurred in 1965. Since their three AFC title appearances in four years (1986-89), they’ve won two playoff games.

However, those two playoff wins are more games that they won in the 2016 and 2017 seasons combined, when they famously went 1-31 and 4-44 over a three year period.

Someone asked me once if it is easier to write about a team when it is winning or losing. Without a doubt it’s a losing team. More things to complain about.

Perhaps that’s why the Browns dominate the sports media in northeast Ohio. Based on the recent past, there are umpteen things to be dissatisfied with.

Do Guardians Overpay For Gloves?

Both of these things can be true. The Cleveland Guardians can and should spend more money on players, and the World Series between two big market behemoths indicate baseball needs to do something to even the playing field for all franchises.

In looking at the Cleveland projected payroll for the 2025 season, the highest paid player is of course the team’s resident superstar, Jose Ramirez. The next two are players known for their glove more than anything else in Andres Gimenez and Myles Straw.

This begs the question: Do the Guardians overpay for defense?

If the franchise is going to limit the amount of money spent on players to less than $100 million, we believe they need to examine where they would get the most bang for their buck.

We have noted this before, but offense (meaning scoring runs) is what gets teams into the playoffs. Of the top seven teams in runs scored in the American League this past season, six of them made by the post-season.

The same holds true in the National League.

So, if you are going to spend cash on something in the game, it should be on good hitters.

We aren’t saying defense isn’t important. Heck, the fifth inning of the fifth game of the World Series is proof of that. But, let’s face it, guys who can hit are extremely more difficult to come by. On the other hand, there are players who are tremendous defensively scattered all over the minor leagues.

We also say that no matter how good players are defensively, in order to hold a regular job in the big leagues, you have to be able to swing the bat.

The proof of that is the current third highest paid play on the Guardians’ payroll, Straw. Why did Straw spend most of last season at AAA and was recently outrighted to the minor leagues? He simply cannot hit.

Which brings us to Gimenez, who the Guardians will be paying $10.57 million next year, $15.57 million in 2026, and then $23.57 million in ’27, ’28, and ’29.

There is no question at all that Gimenez is the best defensive second baseman in the game. He has won three consecutive Gold Gloves and also won the Platinum Glove in 2023. The play he made in game four of the ALCS was just spectacular.

However, does he provide enough offense considering what the Guardians are paying him?

He has spent 3-1/2 years with the team and provided one excellent offense year in 2022 (.297/.371/.466/837) and one year at around league average in ’23 (.251/.314/.399/712).

Last season, his OPS slipped to 638, well below league average, mostly due a big drop off in power. Gimenez had 46 extra base hits in his very good ’22 season, and 47 in ’23. In 2024, that figure fell to just 32.

He is an excellent base stealer, swiping 80 bases in the last three seasons combined.

The Guardians probably were too quick to give him a big contract after 2022, much like they were with Straw after he came over from Houston and had a 739 OPS (.362 on base percentage) in 2021.

However, now the front office has a huge decision. If Gimenez doesn’t rebound offensively, they will be stuck with another huge contract without matching production.

We feel you need six or seven solid hitters in a contending lineup, so maybe the front office can build up the rest of the lineup so they can afford to pick Gimenez and his outstanding defense in the lineup.

And if the organization is trying to keep salaries under $100 million, and we would be surprised if they went over the threshold (not because they can’t, they could), then it might be prudent to move the second baseman this winter.

Maybe the Guardians would be better with a better bat, and a glove a tick below Andres Gimenez. Paying big cash and not getting offense doesn’t seem like a good way to allocate your resources.

Looking At Guardians’ Pitching, Especially The Rotation

That the Cleveland Guardians finished third in the American League in ERA this season was impressive considering the state of their starting rotation for much of the year.

At the start of the year, the rotation consisted of Shane Bieber, Logan Allen, Tanner Bibee, Carlos Carrasco, and Triston McKenzie. And Carrasco was in there because Gavin Williams was out with a sore elbow.

Because of injury and/or ineffectiveness, only Bibee was still there by the beginning of July, although Williams was coming back soon.

In the playoffs, Cleveland had games started by two pitchers who hadn’t thrown a pitch in the major leagues at the time of the July 31st trading deadline in Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb.

The strength of the pitching staff was the bullpen, led by what TBS’ Brian Anderson was calling the “Fearsome Foursome” during the playoffs: Tim Herrin, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and closer Emmanuel Clase.

Unfortunately, as we look ahead to 2025, the bullpen is usually the most volatile part of any baseball team. There is certainly no guarantee the relief corps will be as good as they were this season, particularly with the workload put on them.

All four of the pitchers mentioned were in the top ten in the AL in appearances.

It goes without saying that Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff need to improve the starting rotation going into next season.

We understand that Allen and McKenzie could rebound from very tough ’24 campaigns, but the organization needs to rebuild the depth they had for many seasons.

Bibee and Williams will be starters going into spring training. And they are probably the only sure things, and for a contending team, that’s simply not good enough.

Bieber is a free agent and will likely be out until June or July after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Will he sign a backloaded two-year deal with Cleveland like many pitchers in his situation do, or will he cast his lot with another team?

Boyd and Cobb are also free agents. Boyd could go for perhaps a big pay day this winter, and Cobb would be a back of the rotation arm if he comes back.

So, what can the front office do?

The closest minor league arm to the bigs is 25-year-old lefty Doug Nikhazy, who went 7-4 with a 2.98 ERA between Akron and Columbus, striking out a batter per inning.

We’ve also thought about moving Gaddis back to the rotation. Remember, he went to camp this past spring as a starter and was a starter in the minors before compiling a 1.59 ERA in ’24.

Why Gaddis? First, he’s 6’6″ and 260 pounds. But more importantly, he has a three-pitch mix, a very good fastball, slider and changeup. He wouldn’t be the first pitcher to do well out of the bullpen and become a solid starter either.

The only other alternative would be a trade. There have been several Josh Naylor rumors out there, and although the Guardians’ offense needs to improve, we could see moving him if the return is a proven starter.

Remember, the Guards do have Kyle Manzardo, who should be ready to play every day, so it would be a good, old fashioned baseball trade, not a salary dump.

We aren’t writing off pitchers like Allen and McKenzie, but the Guardians can’t really depend on them either. A team that has made it to the post-season two of the last three years and wants to get back in 2025, can’t afford a lot of questions in their rotation.

How Can Guards Score More Runs Next Year?

Before the season started, we felt the Guardians would be a .500 baseball team, but they got off to a tremendous start and won the AL Central with a 92-69 record and eventually lost in the Championship Series to the Yankees in five games.

When the 2025 season starts late next March in Kansas City, it will have been 77 years since the franchise has won the World Series. And yes, that’s the longest drought in the sport.

What can the Guardians do to defend their divisional title and also to get better in ’25? Today, we will focus on the offense.

Cleveland ranked 7th in the league in runs scored and the only playoff team that scored less was Detroit. Their team OPS was also 7th right at the league average at 703. They were slightly below average in getting on base and slightly above average in slugging.

All in all, they had an average offense.

By position, the Guardians were only above average at four spots: 1B (Josh Naylor), 3B (Jose Ramirez), LF (Steven Kwan), and DH.

We think the one thing the Guardians can focus on offensively is getting on base more often. The league average was .309 and only four players exceeded that: Kwan (.368), David Fry (.356), Ramirez (.335) and Josh Naylor (.320).

Last season, the Guardians made a concerted effort to hit with more power, and they did, hitting 61 more home runs, but it only raised the slugging percentage by 14 points.

How did that happen? They hit 49 less doubles and 11 less triples than they did in ’23.

Let’s look at Kwan, who people talked about his power increase because he went from five long balls to 14 in 2024.

What if we told you he actually had less extra base hits this season? He had 36 doubles, 7 triples last year. This year, just 16 doubles and three triples. Andres Gimenez dropped from 47 XBH to 32 in 2024.

Our point is the “be aggressive and try to drive the ball” approach worked in terms of hitting home runs, but it didn’t improve the extra base hit ability of the Guardians all that much.

The Yankees led the league in runs scored, but their offense is an anomaly because they have Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. They only had five regulars with OPS over 700, one more than Cleveland.

Baltimore was second in runs scored, and they had eight players over 700. Boston was third and they had seven players over that mark. Houston was next and they also had seven hitters over 700.

Can Lane Thomas provide enough offense to hold down a regular spot in the outfield? His combined OPS of 709 was about average. However, we liked his K rate and walk rate a lot better when he was with the Nationals.

At the very least, Fry and Kyle Manzardo should be fine at the DH spot, although the latter might deserve a shot at being an everyday player as the season progresses.

If Fry’s elbow issue isn’t something that requires surgery, getting him behind the plate more often would be a benefit because Austin Hedges doesn’t really help with a bat in his hands.

The tough decision could come up the middle where at least one of the regulars, Gimenez or Brayan Rocchio must do better offensively. Both were liabilities this year, although Rocchio had a solid post-season.

Simply put, the Guardians need better offense, and the best way would seem to be based on being more selective as hitters. Walks are good, when you walk, you aren’t making an out.

In the minor leagues, two top prospects stand out. Juan Brito walked 88 times (13.5% rate) in AAA last year, while Chase DeLauter also exceeded 10%. Brito could be a candidate to open the season with the big club, while DeLauter, who has battled injuries could arrive during the season.

The best way to add to the run total is to add more solid offensive players, not trading them.

Guardians Still In This Series, But Need A Win Tonight

Former Browns’ coach Marty Schottenheimer used to say no game was “must win” unless if you lose you are eliminated from playoff consideration. On that basis, today’s game three of the American League Championship Series isn’t that, but it’s pretty darn close.

The Guardians are down two games to none in the series, but it’s a best-of-seven series, so they aren’t dead yet, but you can get out the shovels if they can’t win tonight at home.

The big weaknesses that plagued the regular season, starting pitching and the offensive are again the culprits in dropping the first two games of the series.

In the post-season, the Guardians are 3-0 when they scored four runs or more and 0-4 when they tally three runs or less. They’ve put up just five runs in the first two games of the ALCS.

As for the starters, we knew Steven Vogt would rely heavily on the bullpen throughout the playoffs, but in game one, Alex Cobb pitched just 2.2 innings and Tanner Bibee went just 1.1 in the second game. That has caused the skipper to use guys in higher leverage situations than he wanted too.

That has caused some hiccups. Rookie Joey Cantillo came in game one and threw four wild pitches. For those questioning Vogt for going to Cantillo that early (and we were one of those people) understand he likely would have had to bring Cantillo in at some point. He used his best four relievers to the max in the last two games of the Tigers’ series, and no doubt they needed an extra day off.

And in game two, the bullpen was forced to cover 6.2 frames, and it could’ve been 7.2 if the Guards had taken the lead. He correctly used Cade Smith with the bases loaded trailing by two in the second to get out of the jam, which he did allowing just one more run to score.

The point is if either starter could get through four innings, it’s a much better situation for the bullpen. It’s that simple.

As for the offense, Cleveland has just three players with more than one hit in the two games: Brayan Rocchio, who continues to have a tremendous playoff, Steven Kwan, and Josh Naylor. New York has five.

The Yankees have seven extra base hits, the Guardians have just two, the home runs by Rocchio and Jose Ramirez. Cleveland hitters have struck out 21 times, New York hitters just 16.

The Guardians have problems in right field, where Jhonkensy Noel and Will Brennan have combined to go 2 for 25 with one walk in the seven games. And at catcher, Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges have combined to go 0 for 23.

We know Bo Naylor is struggling but pinch hitting for him early in a game just means more at bats for Hedges, who is on the roster for defense and leadership, but is a terrible hitter.

It’s not that the offense hasn’t had opportunities, they were 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position and left 11 men on in game two. Someone, anyone, needs to come through with a big hit.

Let’s be clear. Right now, this series is not over. A win in game three put the Guardians right back in it. There is pressure on Matthew Boyd to provide some innings and with four days off, no doubt, Emmanuel Clase is prepared to get Vogt at least five outs.

The Guards need a spark offensively. Kwan and Rocchio have gotten on base. They need someone to step up and drive them in.

Guardians Survive And Advance

It had been since 1997 that the Cleveland baseball team won an elimination game when they beat the Florida Marlins in Game 6 of the World Series.

But they won two this week. Trailing the Detroit Tigers, two game to one Thursday night, they won 5-4 to force a deciding game five, and then won at home yesterday, 7-3 to advance to the League Championship Series for a sixth time, the third time against the New York Yankees.

They have lost the previous two matchups against the Bronx Bombers, but defeated Seattle in 1995, Baltimore in 1997, and Toronto in 2016.

So many heroes in this series, primarily their big acquisition at the trade deadline, Lane Thomas, who went 6 for 19 in the series, driving in nine runs. His three-run shot in Game 1 got the Guards off on the right foot, and the grand slam in the deciding game was ultimately the deciding blow.

Steven Kwan went back to first half Kwan, going 11 for 21 with two walks. He had a trio of three hit games in the series.

David Fry sent the series back home in game four, with a go ahead two run homer and a squeeze bunt to score an important insurance run.

And of course, as it has been all season long, the bullpen was unbelievable. We said before the series it was likely Cleveland only needed four innings from the starters, and out of 132 outs recorded by the pitching staff, 60 of them came from Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, and of course, Emmanuel Clase.

But there were unsung heroes as well.

Brayan Rocchio had a tremendous series, going 6 for 16, and was sparking with the glove. So much for those wanting others to handle the position in the playoffs.

Andres Gimenez was having a terrible series but started the five-run rally yesterday with a single and then scored an insurance run in the ninth inning.

And what about Eli Morgan. Because Steven Vogt went to the bullpen after two innings, he was running out of relievers. Gaddis was gassed after throwing 32 pitches Thursday and 30 more in the fifth game, so Morgan, who didn’t pitch in high leverage situations often, came in the 7th and got two big strikeouts.

The other three teams in the championship series are Major League Baseball’s dream, coming from the mega-markets of New York and Los Angeles. And then there are the Guardians, whose payroll is less than half of each of the other three franchises in baseball’s final four.

The Yankees are the American League’s highest scoring team at 5.03 runs per contest, over a half a run over the Guardians’ 4.4 figure. Pitching wise, New York is fourth, behind Seattle, Detroit, and Cleveland.

The key for Cleveland pitching will be to handle the dynamic duo of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. If you can control them, you have a fighting chance. It’s a bit complicated because Giancarlo Stanton got hot in the Division Series, going 6 for 16 with a big home run.

And can the Guardians defeat Gerrit Cole, who looks like he is back to his Cy Young form in the KC series.

But remember, the Yanks won only two more regular season games than the Guardians, and although we are sure at least in the beginning of the series he will limit the usage of his four main relievers to just one inning, that of course means, the starters still only have to give the skipper about 15 outs.

As usual, where will the runs come for the Guards? Can Kwan, Thomas, and Rocchio continue their hot hitting? Can the Naylors provide some pop? And what to do with rightfield?

In a seven-game series, there is a little less pressure in game one. All the Guardians have to do is win four out of seven. If they do, a seventh American League pennant will be flying over Progressive Field.

A 1-0 Lead And More Thoughts On The Guardians/Tigers Series

We were concerned about the Cleveland Guardians’ offense coming into the American League Division Series against the Detroit Tigers, but they showed us at least in the first inning yesterday.

The first five Guards reached base and all scored as a result of an error, Josh Naylor’s single and Lane Thomas’ three run homer. A 5-0 lead in the first? How sweet was that.

We felt going into the series that Steven Vogt might only need four innings out of his starters, and indeed, Tanner Bibee gave him 4-2/3 frames before giving up a single to Parker Meadows with two out, and the skipper went to the bullpen.

And at least in game one, the relievers were as dominant as they were in the regular season, covering 4.1 innings without allowing a hit.

Cade Smith looked like he did in his big-league debut, striking out all four hitters he faced and Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, and of course, Emmanuel Clase each threw an inning to give the Guardians a 1-0 lead in the series.

Another thought we had about this series is it reminds us of when the Indians took on Boston in the late 90’s, and the Red Sox’ pitching staff was led by Pedro Martinez. Martinez would pitch twice in the series, and you had the feeling Cleveland had to win any game the Hall of Famer would pitch.

Of course, we are referring to the likely Cy Young Award winner this year in the AL, Tarik Skubal. The left-hander will pitch in game two and game five if the series goes on that long.

Skubal isn’t quite Martinez, but he did go 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts in 192 frames. He hasn’t allowed more than a run in a start since September 6th against Oakland when he allowed two runs on nine hits in 5.2 innings.

Cleveland hitters will have their work carved out for them tomorrow at Progressive Field, particularly if the sun is shining and the late afternoon shadows will descend on the diamond.

The announcement of the roster for this series also caused some eyebrow raising. Although it wasn’t a surprise Nick Sandlin was left off the roster because of his propensity to give up home runs, and Ben Lively didn’t make it because the Guards only need three starters, it is a bit of shock that Alex Cobb will start game three.

Cobb hasn’t pitched in a game since September 1st due to fingernail and blister issues, and if Cleveland loses game two, you are giving him the ball in a pivotal game. Again, we know the Guardians only need three or four innings from a starter, and they will have Gavin Williams and/or Joey Cantillo to back him up, but it’s a bit head scratching.

We have always thought the even numbered games in a short series were most important until you get to the last contest, and tomorrow’s game is no different. If the Guardians can beat Skubal, they have command of the series. We aren’t saying it is won because we remember what happened in 2017.

The pressure will be on starter Matthew Boyd, a former Tiger, to keep the Detroit offense in check and either give the Guardians’ bats a chance to scrape out a run or two or get Skubal out of the game early by making him throw a lot of pitches.

With the off day again on Tuesday, no doubt Vogt will go to his bullpen early again.

All yesterday’s win means is the Guardians will not get swept and there will be two games in Detroit. We would be surprised if the Cleveland bats had another outburst like in game one.

Can Guardians Score Enough Runs To Win In October?

The prevailing thought for playoff success for the Cleveland Guardians is to get the lead after five innings and use their greatest strength, their bullpen to hold off the opponents and get the win.

Our biggest concern heading into Saturday’s Game 1 of the American League Division Series? Can they get a lead?

Before the All-Star break, the Guardians have a pretty good offense, ranking 5th in the AL in runs scored, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. When play resumed after the Midsummer Classic, it was a different story.

Since then, the Guardians ranked 11th in the league in runs scored, averaging a full run less than before the break at 3.8 per game.

The only Cleveland player with an OPS of over 800 in the second half is of course Jose Ramirez at 916 and Kyle Manzardo who had just 63 at bats. The perennial all-star batted .291 with 16 HR and 41 RBI in that period.

Only three hitters were even over 700, and of those only Josh Naylor would be considered an everyday player, and he batted just .240 with nine homers (717 OPS). The other two were David Fry (723 OPS) and Jhonkensy Noel (734) and the latter has gone 4 for his last 43 over the last month.

Keep in mind the league average OPS is 703, so the only everyday players above league average are Ramirez and Naylor.

In terms of batting average, the league average is .240 and in on base percentage it is .309.

Once again, Ramirez is getting on base at a .350 clip since the middle of July and Manzardo is getting on a third of his plate appearances in his small sample size. The only other regulars over league average are Steven Kwan (.316), Josh Naylor (.311), and Will Brennan also at .311.

Outside of the red-hot Tigers, who surged in August and September, the Guardians are the worst offensive team in the AL section of the playoffs, scoring 4.4 runs per game. Detroit is at 4.21, but we’ve already said how the Cleveland attack has waned since the first three months of the season.

And although Ramirez has been his usual incredible self, in the playoffs, most teams are not going to pitch to him in any situation where he can do damage, putting pressure on the elder Naylor and Lane Thomas, who will probably hit 5th.

Thomas had a pretty good September with a 770 OPS, but still struck out at a 32% clip in the last month.

Couple this with a starting rotation without a real ace (Tanner Bibee isn’t in the class of a Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, or Corbin Burnes just yet), and you have to wonder can the formula laid out above work?

Let’s say the Guardians’ starter goes five innings and gives up two runs, can we be confident the bats will provide the three runs needed to hand the game over to the bullpen?

Look, it’s the post-season and anything can happen. Hopefully the offense gets back to the levels attained before the first of July, when the Guardians were 52-30 and were scoring almost five runs a night.

Most likely, it will be a struggle to put runs on the scoreboard, which means taking advantage of the opportunities the Guardians will get. We will see starting on Saturday.