Guardians With Their Annual “We Can’t Spend” Talk

There are rites of spring concerning baseball and in Cleveland, there are the rites of winter, the time right around the sports’ winter meetings when the owners of the Guardians come out and give us the reasons they cannot spend money.

It used to be attendance. Ownership would tell fans they would like to spend more money on players, but the number of paying customers prohibited that. But last season, attendance jumped from 1.3 million in 2022 to 1.8 million. So, they had to invent a new reason.

Let’s keep in mind if Cleveland sold out every game, they could draw at most 2.8 million fans.

And the current financial issues with Bally Sports was chosen. Cleveland doesn’t know if it will be their local television money, an estimated $60 million, but if the contract is dissolved, Major League Baseball will step in and give the Guardians a percentage (reportedly between 70-80%) on what they would have been paid.

The Guardians’ ownership wants you to believe those are their only sources of income when they also receive money from baseball’s national broadcast package, and they are also a recipient of a share of the luxury tax payments from those teams that spend above the salary threshold.

So safe to say, the franchise has a lot of money coming in. At this time, we would also point out that the Guardians will save money on their new manager, Steven Vogt, who replaces the highest paid skipper in the big leagues in Terry Francona. And we would also bet with only three holdovers on the coaching staff, they will save money there.

Look, the organization may feel they are better off not paying a free agent(s) big money because they think they can get production from their prospects. That would be a strategy, and although it is probably a poor one, because most prospects do not become stars, at least the fan base would know they probably aren’t looking at contending in 2024.

Our problem is the way the organization handles this, it’s all they talk about. And as a longtime fan of the team, we are tired of hearing about it. No matter how they finish a season, when it comes to hot stove season, they make sure they tell the people who cover the team about their bleak financial situation.

No one is going to force the Dolan family to sell the team. They had David Blitzer buy into the franchise but frankly we haven’t seen any difference in the way the Guardians operate.

However, we will not buy (no pun intended) that the franchise isn’t a money maker for the Dolans. No one running a business loses money year after year without making changes or selling it.

What fans care about is the ownership giving the front office and manager the resources to win, and hopefully, it results in a world title. If the current owners don’t want to do that, it’s fine, but please, stop telling us what a challenge it is for you. No one is buying it.

And stop announcing that you are not going to increase payroll for any myriad of reasons. It’s like telling your partner you are going to cheat on them before you do it. Why? To prepare them for it?

Just stop talking about your finances. It’s done just to hear yourself justify why you aren’t trying to win. Yes, you will be happy if you do win, it’s just that unnecessary means will not be done to insure it.

We are sure next year will hold a different excuse.

Attendance Was Up For Guardians, Now How About Payroll?

The Bally Sports situation is troubling for many baseball teams, we understand that. Losing the rights fee for organizations is definitely a loss of revenue.

However, let’s not forget that these ballclubs will be paid by some entity to televise their games in 2024. It may not be as much as Bally’s was paying, but there will be income coming in.

We also need to remember that nobody uses this time of news better than mid to small market Major League Baseball owners. We already have heard a few teams telling their fans they have to cut payroll due to this situation.

Recently, Guardians’ president Chris Antonetti said the organization let right-handed starting pitcher Cal Quantrill go because what he figured to get in arbitration didn’t fit in with the teams’ payroll structure.

To us, if you can’t spend $6 million on a serviceable starting pitcher, it raises an eyebrow. After all, Cleveland already had the second lowest payroll in the big leagues last season, ahead of only Oakland. (according to Baseballreference.com)

It’s also a good time to remind you that the Guardians had the fourth biggest gain in attendance in ’23, behind Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Baltimore. We know some folks will argue they were low-cost tickets that caused the spike, but we would argue the main thing is getting people in the park, remember, no team is selling concessions at cost.

This organization have always implied they couldn’t spend money on players because of dwindling attendance figures. So, attendance went up last year, and now it is the possibility of losing the television deal that won’t allow the Guardians to spend money on players.

We have always said we understand the Guardians can’t have a $200 million payroll, they certainly don’t generate the same type of revenue that teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Phillies can.

However, last season they outdrew Kansas City, who had a payroll $18 million higher than the Guards. Miami spent $114 million on players, and Cleveland outdrew them by 650,000 people.

The Brewers and Twins are similar market sizes, and both teams’ salaries for players were almost $140 million. By the way, Minnesota is saying they will have to cut payroll because of the local broadcast situation.

Now, one of the reasons Cleveland’s salaries are low is because they are the youngest team in the majors, so many of their players are on minimum contracts because they haven’t reached arbitration yet.

Don’t they have room to add some veterans who can help the team?

So, local television deal or not, the Guardians need to increase the amount they are spending on players for the 2024 season.

Let’s face it, coming off a 92 win season and a division title in 2023, last season was a disappointment. They have a new manager in Steven Vogt and should want to get him all the help he needs.

And you can’t forget the elephant in the room: 1948. The fans came out last season, now the front office should hold up their end of the bargain.

Nothing major, but how about not being in the bottom five in the league in payroll. We don’t think that’s too much to ask.

On The Guards’ New Skipper

The Cleveland Guardians picked the successor to Terry Francona earlier this week when they tabbed Steven Vogt to be the new skipper of the Guards.

Is it a good move? We have no idea. Vogt just retired as a player after the 2022 season and spent last year as Seattle’s bullpen coach. He just turned 39 years old earlier this week. He made two all-star teams as a player.

That’s what we know about Vogt. We aren’t going to make any claims as to how he will do as a manager because he’s never done it before. And that doesn’t mean he will not be good at the job; it simply means he has no track record.

The front office did their due diligence reportedly speaking to Francona and other experienced skippers about what they feel was the best attributes to having success as a manager. They felt Vogt had those qualities and it is a good thing that he can still recall what it was like to be a player.

It reminds you what things you can ask a player to do.

Apparently, Sandy Alomar Jr. will remain on the coaching staff and his experience should be invaluable to Vogt as he navigates his way through a 162 game regular season. And Carl Willis, the Guardians’ long time and very successful pitching coach will also remain on the staff.

Vogt couldn’t hope for two better guys to be able to bounce ideas off, and hopefully, he listens to them as well in terms of communication from a manager’s standpoint, rather than that as a veteran leader.

He should develop a relationship with Jose Ramirez as soon as possible. Ramirez is the Guardians’ de facto captain and bonding with him and getting his support will go a long way into having the rest of the roster buying in.

Francona liked having veteran leadership in the locker room. In his first year in Cleveland, he had Jason Giambi in that role. Because Ramirez has been here awhile, an older player isn’t needed for that purpose, but Vogt and Ramirez need to be a team.

We would like to see the new pilot and the organization be a little more flexible about starting the season with rookies in everyday spots. Francona seemed to be a little more concerned with cold weather affecting the performance of rookies, but we would like to see them as opposed to mediocre veterans with track records.

It is a bold choice for sure and for that we commend the front office.

Speaking of the front office, they already improved the catching situation by claiming Christian Bethancourt on waivers from Tampa Bay. He belted 11 homers last season (635 OPS) and has a rocket for an arm, he pitched for a bit in the minors early in his career.

He doesn’t have a great strikeout/walk ratio, but is certainly better than Cam Gallagher, who put together one of the worst offensive seasons we have seen in a long time.

We don’t understand the other waiver pick up, 1B/OF Alfonso Rivas, who slashed .303/.422/725 with Pittsburgh and San Diego last season. He’s not an on base guy and doesn’t have a lot of pop either. He is having a good winter league season and had good numbers in AAA last season.

Just seems like a AAAA player right now. However, he may not be on the 40-man roster by the time spring training begins.

And that spring training will be guided by a new manager for the first time since 2013. Maybe Vogt can be the first World Series winning manager for Cleveland since 1948.

Reviewing Cleveland’s Prospects From Five Years Ago

We believe that the basis for having a good organization in major league baseball is to have a very good player development program. Especially if you are a smaller market team.

Although we think every major league team could spend tons of money on players (after all, they are all millionaires or billionaires), many teams have a philosophy of not spending, a lot of them because the bang isn’t worth the buck.

For every Corey Seager or Marcus Semien from the newly crowned world champion Texas Rangers that works out, you have a Javier Baez or Jason Heyward.

However, in building a farm system, fans need to understand that the payoff rate for prospects is also not good.

We like to do this every winter, but let’s take a look at the Guardians’ farm system from 2018, five years ago. A system that ranked in the middle of the pack among major league teams, at #15.

Who has worked out, who hasn’t. Here is the list from Baseball America:

1). Francisco Mejia
2). Triston McKenzie
3). Bobby Bradley
4). Nolan Jones
5). Shane Bieber
6). Yu Chang
7). Willi Castro
8). Greg Allen
9). George Valera
10). Will Benson

In our books, there is one all-star type player from this list, and that’s Bieber, who won a Cy Young Award in the COVID shortened season of 2020. He’s 60-32 lifetime, made two all star appearances and thrown 200 innings twice. He has had injury issues in two of the last three seasons.

Although we think McKenzie is very good if he can stay healthy, and he was good in the second half of 2021 and in ’22 (11-11, 2.96 ERA), right now, there is concern over his elbow. But, if he can pitch, he’s a very good starting pitcher.

Mejia was the most highly regarded prospect, but we don’t think the organization felt he could be a full time catcher and traded him to San Diego for Brad Hand. In over 1000 big league at bats, he has a 678 OPS (.239/.284/.394). He never reached what was projected for him.

The book is still out on Jones and Benson, both of whom had very good seasons after being traded by Cleveland after the ’22 season. Jones had a 931 OPS for Colorado, but we worry about a strikeout rate that is over 30% in his time in the big leagues.

Benson had an 863 OPS with Cincinnati, but he fanned in 31.3% of his at bats. High strikeout rates don’t bode well for long term success in the majors.

Bradley, Chang, and Allen never found extended success in the majors, and although the latter two played in the bigs last season, neither are on 40 man rosters heading into the winter.

Castro was traded to Detroit, but had his best year with the Twins this season as kind of a super-utility player, playing six positions, and had a 750 OPS with 33 stolen bases.

What was funny to us was that we’ve been talking about Valera for so long. He had an 816 OPS between AA/AAA in 2022, but fell to 718 at Columbus last season, fighting a lot of injuries. He has pop and patience, but the batting average in his minor league career is just .242, but he gets on base 36.3% of the time.

So, out of the top ten, the successes are Bieber, McKenzie, Jones, Benson, and Castro, although the latter three should be re-evaluated at this time next year.

Valera is still a prospect, probably still top ten in the Cleveland system. The other four simply didn’t pan out.

Keep that in mind when you look at the list that will come out this winter.

Can Guards Deal From Strength And What Would That Mean.

People say the best baseball trades come when a team is dealing from a strength. That almost certainly means if the Cleveland Guardians make a deal this winter, it will involve someone from their pitching staff, right?

We would say the offensively challenged Guards can’t move anyone who shows any talent when swinging the bat. However, Cleveland still has a glut of middle infielders, on both the big-league level and the high levels of the minor leagues.

How they rate (and how other teams rank for that matter) the talent at these positions will show everyone how they feel about these players. Unfortunately, based on how they handled the players this past season, we don’t have a lot of confidence they will do the right thing.

And by the way, that doesn’t mean we think the front office should be revamped. It does mean we hope whoever the new manager will be can change the minds of Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff.

Maybe, hopefully, the decision makers move off of the great defense above all else when it comes to the middle of the diamond and they settle for solid glovework with an ability to swing the bat a bit.

You would think that any move made to strengthen the lineup would involve a trade for a starting pitcher, but which player to move?

Many people would say to move Shane Bieber, the most accomplished of the starting rotation, but he is also a free agent after the 2024 season. How much could he bring in return? We believe it wouldn’t be as much as you might think.

Besides the contract situation, Bieber’s price could be muted by injury issues in two of the last three seasons. Although he pitched 200 innings in 2022, he threw just 97 frames in ’21 and 128 innings last season.

It’s hard to imagine he would get the kind of haul in terms of bats that the Guardians would be looking for.

We also would be very reticent to move either Tanner Bibee and/or Gavin Williams. We believe both hurlers have ace potential. Bibee made 25 starts last year, compiling a 2.98 ERA in 142 innings pitched, and maybe pitched his best in the biggest games when the team was still in the race.

Williams looks the part at 6’6″, 250 pounds and fanned 81 hitters in 82 big league innings. The walks may have been more than we would prefer, and he had periods where he may have given major league hitters more credit than they deserve.

So, the most enticing piece to move might be lefty Logan Allen (7-8, 3.81 ERA in 125.1 IP). We like Allen, but as they say, you have to give up something to get something. And if they move the southpaw, they would still have Bibee and Williams, and the durable Cal Quantrill.

We still don’t know about Triston McKenzie’s reliability because of his elbow injury. He did make two starts at the end of the year, totally six innings. He did walk nine hitters in those two starts. Hopefully, he can be a fixture in next year’s rotation, but we can’t feel confident in him being available for all of 2024 right now.

Trading Allen would mean someone would have to emerge from the minors, perhaps Joey Cantillo or Hunter Gaddis to fill out the rotation.

And even if they got a bat in return for a pitcher and Kyle Manzardo hits like projected, the Guardians probably still need another bat to have a very good offense.

Guardians Need Pop, But From Good Hitters

When people talk about the Cleveland Guardians’ offense and how to improve it, the conversation usually centers around home runs. The Guards simply don’t hit many, ranking last in the majors, 27 behind the team with the next fewest, the Washington Nationals.

But we feel Cleveland doesn’t need guys who hit home runs, rather they need good hitters who can also hit home runs.

Right now, we would say the Guardians have two of these hitters in Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor. Ramirez hit .282 this season with a .356 on base percentage and also had 65 extra base hits, including 24 home runs.

Naylor batted .308 to rank fifth in the American League in batting average (he would have been third had he had enough at bats) with a .354 OBP and 48 extra base hits.

We mention extra base hits because that is power. Getting double and triples usually result in runs being scored.

And we say that knowing we watched the Guardians hit a lot of leadoff doubles and stranded that hitter at second base. The days of get ’em over and get ’em in are over folks. Although we don’t know why.

The Guardians also need to walk more (and swing less). Cleveland ranks 6th in the major leagues in swinging at pitches, and it may surprise you to know of the seven teams that rank highest in swing rate, five of them have bad or average offenses (White Sox, Rockies, Angels, Royals, and Guardians). Only the Braves and Rays buck that trend.

Teams that swing a lot are vulnerable to good pitching, usually because you are not just swinging at pitches in the strike zone. If you are a regular reader of this site, you know we are very suspicious of hitters with high strikeout and low walk rates.

It’s why we are a bit concerned about Gabriel Arias, who had a 32.8% strikeout rate last season with just an 8.1% walk rate. Yes, he hits the ball hard, but he just doesn’t hit it that often.

Hitters who strikeout a lot and walk a lot are fine. First, walking means they are not making outs. Juan Soto is the prototype for this right now, he fanned 129 times this past season, and actually walked more, drawing a major league leading 132 walks.

We found this interesting. The top five in drawing walks in 2023 hit an average of 39.2 home runs, while the top five in strikeouts hit 29.4 long balls, almost 10 less than the more selective batters.

One player, Kyle Schwarber, ranked in the top five of both categories.

So, while the Guardians need to hit more home runs the ultimate goal would be to find hitters who swing at good pitches and can drive them. We thought that became the organizational philosophy when Ramirez and Francisco Lindor arrived. Find guys who make good contact and teach them to drive the ball.

They’ve done the first part, but the driving the ball hasn’t taken hold yet.

Maybe the next wave of that is George Valera, Kyle Manzardo, and Chase DeLauter.

The Guardians need more pop, but getting hitters who make a bunch of outs while doing it isn’t the answer.

No One Will Know What To Expect With Guards’ New Skipper (Probably).

Likely, the first order of business for the Cleveland Guardians is to find a new manager to replace their all-time leader in wins as a skipper in Terry Francona.

We find it funny seeing some fans trumpeting candidates when the names come out that Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff are interviewing. It has been reported that Giants’ bullpen coach Craig Albernaz and Yankees’ bench coach Carlos Mendoza have had conversations with Cleveland.

And add in the other speculated candidates like Rangers’ bench coach Will Venable, who was with the Guards in spring training a few years ago and went to college with Chernoff, Astros’ bench coach Joe Espada, and current Cleveland third base coach Mike Sarbaugh.

We would guess the Guardians would be interested if Kevin Cash (739-617) with Tampa Bay) or Craig Counsell (707-625 with Milwaukee) came available. The great Peter Gammons speculated last week that Cash would love to manage in Cleveland, and the front office would love to have him.

However, outside of Cash and Counsell, we really don’t know what you are going to get as from any of the men who have never managed at the big-league level. Bench coaches would seem to have good experience, but there is still a big difference between being someone who “suggests” moves rather than making the ultimate decision.

And it’s also different piloting a minor league team where player development is the goal rather than winning games. We would agree though that handling minor league players well should translate to the big leagues.

If you hire guys who have had success at the big-league level, not only do you get that, but they also understand all that goes along with the job in the majors, meaning dealing with the media, and being exposed to players who have been in the game for a while.

We think the ideal candidate is someone who can combine the old school type of managing, with a feel for the game, with analytics. We thought it was insane for John Schneider to remove Jose Berrios from his start against Minnesota in the wild card series because it was scripted, and the numbers said to do it.

If a starting pitcher is doing his job, let him keep doing it until the hitters tell them he is losing effectiveness. We understand sometimes it’s too late to take action, but remember, some people treat analytics as a way to explain why they made a decision that didn’t work.

We don’t want a manager who goes strictly by the numbers, but we don’t want someone who will ignore them either. At this point in baseball though, we doubt you could find a manager described by that second statement.

At the end of the day, what you want is someone who has the trust of the players and has everyone pulling in the same direction. And with the Guardians still being a very young team, the new guy in charge will also need to guide them.

Terry Francona liked to have a veteran around to help with that, be it Jason Giambi, Jose Uribe, or Mike Napoli. And we agree having an experienced player around is important.

The truth is, we really won’t know anything about the new manager (if he has no big-league experience, that is) until the games start for real next spring. And even then, you have to allow a new major league skipper to grow into the job.

Thank You, Terry Francona

Terry Francona managed his last home game as the Guardians/Indians’ skipper last night and what a fun 11 years it has been. Six post-season berths, one American League pennant, and currently sitting at 920 regular season victories.

He is respected by pretty much everyone he comes in contact with, and unfortunately this 2023 Guardians didn’t have a better finish to the season.

We remember being very surprised that he would take the Cleveland position after winning two World Series in Boston, but thrilled we were getting a winner.

We are sure there are some who is glad he is leaving, and even Francona himself has said maybe the next guy will be better. As former Cleveland manager Mike Hargrove once said, two things everybody thinks they can do better than everyone else are cooking a steak and managing a baseball team.

We have said Francona is not infallible, he made mistakes, just like every other manager. He gave some players too much of the benefit of the doubt, and sometimes that patience lapsed into stubbornness. But many times, the skipper was right, and the player he waited on started producing.

He’s what they call a “baseball lifer”, he spent his whole life in the sport, and we’ve all seen the picture in the dugout at the Father/Son Day in Cleveland in the early 60’s. He grew up in the game. And with his dad playing here and him managing here for 11 years, he’s a Cleveland guy.

That alone should be cause for celebration.

And for all the talk that he loves veterans, let’s not forget during his tenure here, he broke in Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Steven Kwan, and really Josh Naylor too. And his first pitching staff here featured Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Danny Salazar, and a very young Corey Kluber.

He had Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, and Trevor Bauer on the World Series team of 2016, and brought along Shane Bieber to be the latest ace, with perhaps Tanner Bibee getting ready to take his place.

He’s done a pretty good job with young players too, and always has if you look at his time in Philadelphia (Scott Rolen and Bobby Abreu) and Boston (Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis).

Let’s also remember how masterful Francona was in the 2016 post-season, when he guided the Indians to the ultimate game despite losing Carrasco and Salazar for pretty much the entire playoffs.

He and Joe Torre changed how bullpens were used in the postseason, and now all managers use that strategy come October.

And think about the relationships with his players. When the Pirates were in town earlier this season, Carlos Santana ran over to the Guardians’ dugout after the top of the first inning to give Francona a hug.

We are sure there are a few players who don’t like Francona, but they are few and far between.

We are sad about his departure because it marks the end of an era in Cleveland baseball. It has been noted that the only two teams with better records since Francona has been at the helm are the Yankees and Dodgers. Let that sink in a bit.

Say what you will, but that’s a pretty good run.

We would like to say thank you for 11 great seasons of baseball. In an interview given last week, Francona sounds like he still would like to be part of the organization going forward, and that sound right.

Since he was a little kid, he seems like he’s been one of ours.

The Weird Twists And Turns For Guardians This Year

We don’t think anyone could debate this has been a weird season for the Cleveland Guardians. They were coming off a 92 win season and a playoff appearance, and the front office even signed free agents to fill holes.

It just didn’t work out. The Guardians’ longest win streak all season has been four games, which coincidentally is also their longest losing streak. They just couldn’t build any momentum, either positive or negative all season long.

It was a season filled with weirdness and here were some of the strangest things we saw this year.

1). They carried three catchers most of the season, but started the season with Meibrys Viloria as the third backstop. He was on the roster for the first 35 games of the season, playing in 10 games, accumulating four plate appearances.

Talk about a waste of a roster spot.

2). After years of dominating the AL Central, the Guardians had a terrible time in the division this season, pretty much an explanation for their below .500 record. They won the series vs. Minnesota, ironically, but are just 15-21 against the other three teams who have a combined record of 181-278 (.394).

Weirdly enough, they’ve held their own against the teams likely to play in the post-season in the American League, going 27-24 vs. Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Minnesota, Houston, Seattle and Texas.

3). How about Zach Plesac’s fall from grace. Yes, he didn’t have a good year in 2022, but he still had a 4.31 ERA and allowed 136 hits in 131.1 innings.

This year, he simply imploded, allowing 18 earned runs in 21 innings and was sent to the minors by early May after just five starts, and designated for assignment later on. And to support the organization’s decision, he compiled a 6.08 ERA in AAA.

A far cry from his first two years in the bigs in 2019 and 2020.

4). The 1968 World Champion Detroit Tigers’ had a shortstop named Ray Oyler, who hit .135 for the season in 247 plate appearances. Cam Gallagher only has 142 times at bat, but he’s hitting .130 as the Guardians’ back up catcher, and somehow made it through the season on the big league roster.

He survived even though David Fry came up from AAA and demonstrated the ability to do a solid job behind the plate, and can swing the bat a bit.

5). How many times did Myles Straw, one of the league’s worst hitters with an OPS of 575 with a single home run on the year, bat in the late innings with the game on the line? In high leverage situations, Straw hit .198 with a 500 OPS.

And Terry Francona appeared irritated when asked why he didn’t pinch hit for Straw in these situations.

6). Speaking of Fry, he pitched more innings for the Guardians this season than August 31st waiver pick up Matt Moore. Fry went four innings on a Labor Day blowout loss against Minnesota, and Moore pitched in five games totaling 4.2 innings before being put on waivers again and being claimed by Miami.

7). Emmanuel Clase leads the AL in saves, and likely will do so for the second straight year. He also became the first Cleveland pitcher to have 40+ saves in consecutive seasons.

He also blew 12 save opportunities. He did that despite allowing just 2 home runs on the season. It seemed every softly hit ball against him found a hole, or the team played bad defense behind him.

It didn’t help that Cleveland had so many close games.

We didn’t even go into the voodoo that left-handed pitchers do to the team.

Hopefully, the Guardians don’t add to the strange doings on in the last week of this disappointing season.

How Does Rotation Check Out For Guardians in ’24?

Most of the focus in looking forward to 2024 for the Cleveland Guardians has centered around improving the hitting and rightly so. It is well documented that the Guards are 12th in the American League in runs scored, and make no mistake, in the regular season, if you can’t score you don’t win.

Of the teams scoring above the league average in runs per game, only the Red Sox and Angels are below the .500 mark. You have to put runs on the board.

But what about the pitching, which for years has been the strength of the Guardians’ franchise. The organization likes to refer to the “pitching factory”.

(Our comment has been to ask when the “hitting factory” will be built, and we get that is being snarky).

With the injuries to Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill this season, a new core of young pitchers has emerged. Tanner Bibee (10-4, 2.98 ERA with 141 strikeouts in 142 innings), Gavin Williams (3-5, 3.29 ERA, 81 Ks in 82 IP), and Logan Allen (7-7, 3.60 ERA, 118 Ks in 122.1 IP) have certainly earned spots in next season’s rotation.

The biggest question mark has to be the health of McKenzie, who has made just two starts this season and with a strained ligament in his elbow, it wouldn’t be a shock if Tommy John surgery is in his future and that would put him out for the season.

That brings us to Bieber, who has missed significant parts of the season in two of the last three seasons and will be a free agent following the ’24 season. He isn’t the guy who won the Cy Young Award in 2020, but he still is a quality starter. Would he be interested in a short-term extension because of the injuries?

And you have Quantrill, who’s last three starts since coming back from a shoulder issue have been very good. Many people complain about him, but really, if he’s your fifth starter, you have a pretty solid rotation.

And you still have Hunter Gaddis, Xzavion Curry, and southpaw Joey Cantillo (6-4, 4.09 ERA, 142 Ks in 114 IP, but with 63 walks at AAA and AA this season).

Rotation depth is needed as we saw with the club this season.

It is doubtful that Cleveland can put together a package for Lucas Giolito this winter that would satisfy him and his agent this winter, so we would consider that a longshot.

But if the front office is doing their job (and we have confidence) they have to figure one of the young trio will fall off a bit from outstanding rookie seasons.

We would also consider moving Eli Morgan back into a starting role. Morgan had a 3.45 ERA in the second half of 2021 as a starter, striking out 49 hitters in 44.1 innings. We would do this because Morgan gives up too many long balls to flourish in the bullpen.

If Bieber is dealt and McKenzie cannot pitch in ’24, the front office will have to explore other options for the rotation, perhaps a large one-year contract for Giolito or rolling the dice with Gaddis, Curry, and Morgan.

The starting rotation is easily the strength of the team, but the organization cannot get complacent.

And remember one thing Terry Francona has always said: When you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more.