Can Guards Deal From Strength And What Would That Mean.

People say the best baseball trades come when a team is dealing from a strength. That almost certainly means if the Cleveland Guardians make a deal this winter, it will involve someone from their pitching staff, right?

We would say the offensively challenged Guards can’t move anyone who shows any talent when swinging the bat. However, Cleveland still has a glut of middle infielders, on both the big-league level and the high levels of the minor leagues.

How they rate (and how other teams rank for that matter) the talent at these positions will show everyone how they feel about these players. Unfortunately, based on how they handled the players this past season, we don’t have a lot of confidence they will do the right thing.

And by the way, that doesn’t mean we think the front office should be revamped. It does mean we hope whoever the new manager will be can change the minds of Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff.

Maybe, hopefully, the decision makers move off of the great defense above all else when it comes to the middle of the diamond and they settle for solid glovework with an ability to swing the bat a bit.

You would think that any move made to strengthen the lineup would involve a trade for a starting pitcher, but which player to move?

Many people would say to move Shane Bieber, the most accomplished of the starting rotation, but he is also a free agent after the 2024 season. How much could he bring in return? We believe it wouldn’t be as much as you might think.

Besides the contract situation, Bieber’s price could be muted by injury issues in two of the last three seasons. Although he pitched 200 innings in 2022, he threw just 97 frames in ’21 and 128 innings last season.

It’s hard to imagine he would get the kind of haul in terms of bats that the Guardians would be looking for.

We also would be very reticent to move either Tanner Bibee and/or Gavin Williams. We believe both hurlers have ace potential. Bibee made 25 starts last year, compiling a 2.98 ERA in 142 innings pitched, and maybe pitched his best in the biggest games when the team was still in the race.

Williams looks the part at 6’6″, 250 pounds and fanned 81 hitters in 82 big league innings. The walks may have been more than we would prefer, and he had periods where he may have given major league hitters more credit than they deserve.

So, the most enticing piece to move might be lefty Logan Allen (7-8, 3.81 ERA in 125.1 IP). We like Allen, but as they say, you have to give up something to get something. And if they move the southpaw, they would still have Bibee and Williams, and the durable Cal Quantrill.

We still don’t know about Triston McKenzie’s reliability because of his elbow injury. He did make two starts at the end of the year, totally six innings. He did walk nine hitters in those two starts. Hopefully, he can be a fixture in next year’s rotation, but we can’t feel confident in him being available for all of 2024 right now.

Trading Allen would mean someone would have to emerge from the minors, perhaps Joey Cantillo or Hunter Gaddis to fill out the rotation.

And even if they got a bat in return for a pitcher and Kyle Manzardo hits like projected, the Guardians probably still need another bat to have a very good offense.

Guardians Need Pop, But From Good Hitters

When people talk about the Cleveland Guardians’ offense and how to improve it, the conversation usually centers around home runs. The Guards simply don’t hit many, ranking last in the majors, 27 behind the team with the next fewest, the Washington Nationals.

But we feel Cleveland doesn’t need guys who hit home runs, rather they need good hitters who can also hit home runs.

Right now, we would say the Guardians have two of these hitters in Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor. Ramirez hit .282 this season with a .356 on base percentage and also had 65 extra base hits, including 24 home runs.

Naylor batted .308 to rank fifth in the American League in batting average (he would have been third had he had enough at bats) with a .354 OBP and 48 extra base hits.

We mention extra base hits because that is power. Getting double and triples usually result in runs being scored.

And we say that knowing we watched the Guardians hit a lot of leadoff doubles and stranded that hitter at second base. The days of get ’em over and get ’em in are over folks. Although we don’t know why.

The Guardians also need to walk more (and swing less). Cleveland ranks 6th in the major leagues in swinging at pitches, and it may surprise you to know of the seven teams that rank highest in swing rate, five of them have bad or average offenses (White Sox, Rockies, Angels, Royals, and Guardians). Only the Braves and Rays buck that trend.

Teams that swing a lot are vulnerable to good pitching, usually because you are not just swinging at pitches in the strike zone. If you are a regular reader of this site, you know we are very suspicious of hitters with high strikeout and low walk rates.

It’s why we are a bit concerned about Gabriel Arias, who had a 32.8% strikeout rate last season with just an 8.1% walk rate. Yes, he hits the ball hard, but he just doesn’t hit it that often.

Hitters who strikeout a lot and walk a lot are fine. First, walking means they are not making outs. Juan Soto is the prototype for this right now, he fanned 129 times this past season, and actually walked more, drawing a major league leading 132 walks.

We found this interesting. The top five in drawing walks in 2023 hit an average of 39.2 home runs, while the top five in strikeouts hit 29.4 long balls, almost 10 less than the more selective batters.

One player, Kyle Schwarber, ranked in the top five of both categories.

So, while the Guardians need to hit more home runs the ultimate goal would be to find hitters who swing at good pitches and can drive them. We thought that became the organizational philosophy when Ramirez and Francisco Lindor arrived. Find guys who make good contact and teach them to drive the ball.

They’ve done the first part, but the driving the ball hasn’t taken hold yet.

Maybe the next wave of that is George Valera, Kyle Manzardo, and Chase DeLauter.

The Guardians need more pop, but getting hitters who make a bunch of outs while doing it isn’t the answer.

No One Will Know What To Expect With Guards’ New Skipper (Probably).

Likely, the first order of business for the Cleveland Guardians is to find a new manager to replace their all-time leader in wins as a skipper in Terry Francona.

We find it funny seeing some fans trumpeting candidates when the names come out that Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff are interviewing. It has been reported that Giants’ bullpen coach Craig Albernaz and Yankees’ bench coach Carlos Mendoza have had conversations with Cleveland.

And add in the other speculated candidates like Rangers’ bench coach Will Venable, who was with the Guards in spring training a few years ago and went to college with Chernoff, Astros’ bench coach Joe Espada, and current Cleveland third base coach Mike Sarbaugh.

We would guess the Guardians would be interested if Kevin Cash (739-617) with Tampa Bay) or Craig Counsell (707-625 with Milwaukee) came available. The great Peter Gammons speculated last week that Cash would love to manage in Cleveland, and the front office would love to have him.

However, outside of Cash and Counsell, we really don’t know what you are going to get as from any of the men who have never managed at the big-league level. Bench coaches would seem to have good experience, but there is still a big difference between being someone who “suggests” moves rather than making the ultimate decision.

And it’s also different piloting a minor league team where player development is the goal rather than winning games. We would agree though that handling minor league players well should translate to the big leagues.

If you hire guys who have had success at the big-league level, not only do you get that, but they also understand all that goes along with the job in the majors, meaning dealing with the media, and being exposed to players who have been in the game for a while.

We think the ideal candidate is someone who can combine the old school type of managing, with a feel for the game, with analytics. We thought it was insane for John Schneider to remove Jose Berrios from his start against Minnesota in the wild card series because it was scripted, and the numbers said to do it.

If a starting pitcher is doing his job, let him keep doing it until the hitters tell them he is losing effectiveness. We understand sometimes it’s too late to take action, but remember, some people treat analytics as a way to explain why they made a decision that didn’t work.

We don’t want a manager who goes strictly by the numbers, but we don’t want someone who will ignore them either. At this point in baseball though, we doubt you could find a manager described by that second statement.

At the end of the day, what you want is someone who has the trust of the players and has everyone pulling in the same direction. And with the Guardians still being a very young team, the new guy in charge will also need to guide them.

Terry Francona liked to have a veteran around to help with that, be it Jason Giambi, Jose Uribe, or Mike Napoli. And we agree having an experienced player around is important.

The truth is, we really won’t know anything about the new manager (if he has no big-league experience, that is) until the games start for real next spring. And even then, you have to allow a new major league skipper to grow into the job.

Thank You, Terry Francona

Terry Francona managed his last home game as the Guardians/Indians’ skipper last night and what a fun 11 years it has been. Six post-season berths, one American League pennant, and currently sitting at 920 regular season victories.

He is respected by pretty much everyone he comes in contact with, and unfortunately this 2023 Guardians didn’t have a better finish to the season.

We remember being very surprised that he would take the Cleveland position after winning two World Series in Boston, but thrilled we were getting a winner.

We are sure there are some who is glad he is leaving, and even Francona himself has said maybe the next guy will be better. As former Cleveland manager Mike Hargrove once said, two things everybody thinks they can do better than everyone else are cooking a steak and managing a baseball team.

We have said Francona is not infallible, he made mistakes, just like every other manager. He gave some players too much of the benefit of the doubt, and sometimes that patience lapsed into stubbornness. But many times, the skipper was right, and the player he waited on started producing.

He’s what they call a “baseball lifer”, he spent his whole life in the sport, and we’ve all seen the picture in the dugout at the Father/Son Day in Cleveland in the early 60’s. He grew up in the game. And with his dad playing here and him managing here for 11 years, he’s a Cleveland guy.

That alone should be cause for celebration.

And for all the talk that he loves veterans, let’s not forget during his tenure here, he broke in Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Steven Kwan, and really Josh Naylor too. And his first pitching staff here featured Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Danny Salazar, and a very young Corey Kluber.

He had Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, and Trevor Bauer on the World Series team of 2016, and brought along Shane Bieber to be the latest ace, with perhaps Tanner Bibee getting ready to take his place.

He’s done a pretty good job with young players too, and always has if you look at his time in Philadelphia (Scott Rolen and Bobby Abreu) and Boston (Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis).

Let’s also remember how masterful Francona was in the 2016 post-season, when he guided the Indians to the ultimate game despite losing Carrasco and Salazar for pretty much the entire playoffs.

He and Joe Torre changed how bullpens were used in the postseason, and now all managers use that strategy come October.

And think about the relationships with his players. When the Pirates were in town earlier this season, Carlos Santana ran over to the Guardians’ dugout after the top of the first inning to give Francona a hug.

We are sure there are a few players who don’t like Francona, but they are few and far between.

We are sad about his departure because it marks the end of an era in Cleveland baseball. It has been noted that the only two teams with better records since Francona has been at the helm are the Yankees and Dodgers. Let that sink in a bit.

Say what you will, but that’s a pretty good run.

We would like to say thank you for 11 great seasons of baseball. In an interview given last week, Francona sounds like he still would like to be part of the organization going forward, and that sound right.

Since he was a little kid, he seems like he’s been one of ours.

The Weird Twists And Turns For Guardians This Year

We don’t think anyone could debate this has been a weird season for the Cleveland Guardians. They were coming off a 92 win season and a playoff appearance, and the front office even signed free agents to fill holes.

It just didn’t work out. The Guardians’ longest win streak all season has been four games, which coincidentally is also their longest losing streak. They just couldn’t build any momentum, either positive or negative all season long.

It was a season filled with weirdness and here were some of the strangest things we saw this year.

1). They carried three catchers most of the season, but started the season with Meibrys Viloria as the third backstop. He was on the roster for the first 35 games of the season, playing in 10 games, accumulating four plate appearances.

Talk about a waste of a roster spot.

2). After years of dominating the AL Central, the Guardians had a terrible time in the division this season, pretty much an explanation for their below .500 record. They won the series vs. Minnesota, ironically, but are just 15-21 against the other three teams who have a combined record of 181-278 (.394).

Weirdly enough, they’ve held their own against the teams likely to play in the post-season in the American League, going 27-24 vs. Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Minnesota, Houston, Seattle and Texas.

3). How about Zach Plesac’s fall from grace. Yes, he didn’t have a good year in 2022, but he still had a 4.31 ERA and allowed 136 hits in 131.1 innings.

This year, he simply imploded, allowing 18 earned runs in 21 innings and was sent to the minors by early May after just five starts, and designated for assignment later on. And to support the organization’s decision, he compiled a 6.08 ERA in AAA.

A far cry from his first two years in the bigs in 2019 and 2020.

4). The 1968 World Champion Detroit Tigers’ had a shortstop named Ray Oyler, who hit .135 for the season in 247 plate appearances. Cam Gallagher only has 142 times at bat, but he’s hitting .130 as the Guardians’ back up catcher, and somehow made it through the season on the big league roster.

He survived even though David Fry came up from AAA and demonstrated the ability to do a solid job behind the plate, and can swing the bat a bit.

5). How many times did Myles Straw, one of the league’s worst hitters with an OPS of 575 with a single home run on the year, bat in the late innings with the game on the line? In high leverage situations, Straw hit .198 with a 500 OPS.

And Terry Francona appeared irritated when asked why he didn’t pinch hit for Straw in these situations.

6). Speaking of Fry, he pitched more innings for the Guardians this season than August 31st waiver pick up Matt Moore. Fry went four innings on a Labor Day blowout loss against Minnesota, and Moore pitched in five games totaling 4.2 innings before being put on waivers again and being claimed by Miami.

7). Emmanuel Clase leads the AL in saves, and likely will do so for the second straight year. He also became the first Cleveland pitcher to have 40+ saves in consecutive seasons.

He also blew 12 save opportunities. He did that despite allowing just 2 home runs on the season. It seemed every softly hit ball against him found a hole, or the team played bad defense behind him.

It didn’t help that Cleveland had so many close games.

We didn’t even go into the voodoo that left-handed pitchers do to the team.

Hopefully, the Guardians don’t add to the strange doings on in the last week of this disappointing season.

How Does Rotation Check Out For Guardians in ’24?

Most of the focus in looking forward to 2024 for the Cleveland Guardians has centered around improving the hitting and rightly so. It is well documented that the Guards are 12th in the American League in runs scored, and make no mistake, in the regular season, if you can’t score you don’t win.

Of the teams scoring above the league average in runs per game, only the Red Sox and Angels are below the .500 mark. You have to put runs on the board.

But what about the pitching, which for years has been the strength of the Guardians’ franchise. The organization likes to refer to the “pitching factory”.

(Our comment has been to ask when the “hitting factory” will be built, and we get that is being snarky).

With the injuries to Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill this season, a new core of young pitchers has emerged. Tanner Bibee (10-4, 2.98 ERA with 141 strikeouts in 142 innings), Gavin Williams (3-5, 3.29 ERA, 81 Ks in 82 IP), and Logan Allen (7-7, 3.60 ERA, 118 Ks in 122.1 IP) have certainly earned spots in next season’s rotation.

The biggest question mark has to be the health of McKenzie, who has made just two starts this season and with a strained ligament in his elbow, it wouldn’t be a shock if Tommy John surgery is in his future and that would put him out for the season.

That brings us to Bieber, who has missed significant parts of the season in two of the last three seasons and will be a free agent following the ’24 season. He isn’t the guy who won the Cy Young Award in 2020, but he still is a quality starter. Would he be interested in a short-term extension because of the injuries?

And you have Quantrill, who’s last three starts since coming back from a shoulder issue have been very good. Many people complain about him, but really, if he’s your fifth starter, you have a pretty solid rotation.

And you still have Hunter Gaddis, Xzavion Curry, and southpaw Joey Cantillo (6-4, 4.09 ERA, 142 Ks in 114 IP, but with 63 walks at AAA and AA this season).

Rotation depth is needed as we saw with the club this season.

It is doubtful that Cleveland can put together a package for Lucas Giolito this winter that would satisfy him and his agent this winter, so we would consider that a longshot.

But if the front office is doing their job (and we have confidence) they have to figure one of the young trio will fall off a bit from outstanding rookie seasons.

We would also consider moving Eli Morgan back into a starting role. Morgan had a 3.45 ERA in the second half of 2021 as a starter, striking out 49 hitters in 44.1 innings. We would do this because Morgan gives up too many long balls to flourish in the bullpen.

If Bieber is dealt and McKenzie cannot pitch in ’24, the front office will have to explore other options for the rotation, perhaps a large one-year contract for Giolito or rolling the dice with Gaddis, Curry, and Morgan.

The starting rotation is easily the strength of the team, but the organization cannot get complacent.

And remember one thing Terry Francona has always said: When you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more.

Have Guardians Mishandled Middle Infield Prospects

Following the 2021 season, the Cleveland Guardians had five prospects who were consensus top 100 players, and three were middle infielders: Tyler Freeman, Brayan Rocchio, and Gabriel Arias.

At that time, Cleveland had Amed Rosario as the starting shortstop and also had 22-year-old Andres Gimenez, the biggest piece the organization received in the Francisco Lindor trade. Gimenez hit .218 with 5 homers and 18 RBIs (633 OPS) in 188 at bats that season, so he hadn’t established himself as of yet.

Two years later, and the three highly rated prospects are still kind of in limbo.

Arias was given the starting shortstop job after Rosario was moved at this year’s trading deadline, after spending the first part of the year playing first base and right field.

Since assuming the position on August 1st, Arias has batted .218 (29 for 133) with 5 HR and 15 runs batted in, a 632 OPS.

Freeman has received sporadic playing time all year, hitting .240 with a 631 OPS, and Rocchio has spent most of the season in Columbus, hitting .284 with a 796 OPS, but in 70 plate appearances in the big leagues, he hit .242 with a 574 OPS, striking out 22 times.

The point here is not to criticize the players, but rather question the organization for kind of mangling the entire situation.

The purpose of having prospects is to keep the talent flow going through the organization or to use them to get players who are needed at the big-league level. And if you have someone blocking that player and you believe in them, you can move them to another position.

A good example is Jose Ramirez. Ramirez played primarily second base in the minor leagues, but when he was coming up the then Indians had Jason Kipnis, a solid player at his position. So, they moved Ramirez to third base, where he has become a perennial all-star.

So, with the situation for Cleveland after the ’21 season, a decision should have been made to either trade Rosario, making room for Arias, Freeman, or Rocchio, trade one or two of the trio, or moving them to another position.

You could say they tried the latter for Arias, and is his case, he also had some injuries during last year, but again, we are saying this decision should have been made prior to last season.

It is very likely that all three’s value has been diminished since the lack of decision after the 2021 season. They are no longer prospects, so now they are simply young players who have never proven anything at the major league level.

Rocchio might have the highest trade value right now, because he’s had a pretty solid year at AAA.

And compounding this situation is that the Guardians have Jose Tena, who is currently on the big-league roster and Juan Brito, who came over in the trade for Nolan Jones this off-season.

By the way, we have advocated for position changes for Freeman and Brito about a month ago.

It seems like the front office seems reticent to make a mistake, trading the wrong player. But you also have to strike while the iron is hot. We aren’t saying it is easy, but trading a prospect at the right time is an art.

However, what the Guardians have done is not taken advantage of the number of high prospect middle infielders they’ve had and converting them into players they could use.

Instead, they’ve become marginal big leaguers who they can’t find at bats for.

Much like telling a pitcher to “trust his stuff”, the Guardians’ front office needs to trust their judgment. Two years later, they still have a lot of middle infield prospects who are ranked highly.

Let’s see if they have learned from their mistake.

Hope Guardians’ Front Office Knows What They Don’t Know

The Cleveland Guardians have just 15 games remaining in what has been a very disappointing season.

Before the season we said it was very difficult to project how the team would do because most of the players had no proven track record because they were so young and had no experience.

For example, it was probably fool’s gold to say Jose Ramirez would duplicate what he did last season, which was likely a career year. But since Ramirez has been the league for a long time, you can feel pretty confident in saying he will hit 25 home runs, knock in 90-100, and bat around .280.

You couldn’t say that about anyone else projected to be in this season’s starting lineup.

Last season, Andres Gimenez was spectacular, hitting 17 homers and batting .297 with an 837 OPS. This season, his batting average has dropped to .242, his power has dropped 12 dingers.

What kind of player is Gimenez? Defensively, he has remained great, deserving of a second Gold Glove. Offensively? We will likely find out next season. We think you can figure somewhere in the middle, around a 760 OPS which with his glove, makes him a middle infield starter.

Where? He may move back to shortstop, and frankly, he would be our first choice at the position.

Steven Kwan has been reliable compared to most of the balance of the starting lineup, but his numbers have also regressed, dropping from a 772 OPS in ’22 to 715 in ’23. Most of that drop has been his on base percentage, which is .341 compared to .372 a year ago.

If Kwan can get to .350, he’s a solid leadoff hitter and we still think he can become a guy who can get to 10 homers on a yearly basis.

The only players who have exceeded expectations among the everyday players share the same last name: Naylor.

Josh is heading into his prime and raised his OPS from 771 to 849. If not for an oblique injury which cost him August, we would have knocked in 100 runs and still could do it with a hot finish. Again, he’s just 26 years old.

Bo Naylor has greatly improved the team’s offense at the catcher position. Last season, Austin Hedges and Luke Maile combined for 10 homers and 47 RBIs, and a .185 batting average.

Naylor has a 757 OPS, third best on the team for players with over 100 at bats. Why he doesn’t hit higher in the order, particularly in the last month when he has compiled a 1045 OPS (.315 average, 4 HR, 10 RBI) is one of the great mysteries surrounding the team.

Of course, he will go into next season in the same boat as Gimenez and Kwan. That is, with no track record.

So, unless some experienced players are brought in, the Guardians won’t be in a much different position entering 2024. If players like Gabriel Arias or Tyler Freeman are starting, no one will have any idea how they will be able to contribute offensively.

It will still be dependent on Ramirez and Josh Naylor to provide offense and that doesn’t seem like a recipe for success.

Guardians Should Heed Peter Brand: “He Gets On Base”

There is a famous scene in the movie “Moneyball” where in a meeting of talent evaluators, GM Billy Beane, played by Brad Pitt, brings up a player and asks the group why he likes that player.

The assistant GM Peter Brand (really Paul DePodesta) played by Jonah Hill replies “he gets on base”.

That is a credo the Cleveland Guardians should use going forward toward 2024.

We all understand the Guardians need power too. They are last in all of baseball with just 106 home runs and rank 13th the American League in slugging percentage. We know they stress contact, striking out the least in the league, but are only 9th in the AL in on base percentage.

If you don’t have power, you better have a lot of guys getting on base. You see, “he gets on base” translates to “he doesn’t make outs”.

The three best Cleveland players to avoid making outs are Jose Ramirez with a .349 on base average, with Josh Naylor at .347, followed by Steven Kwan at .340. The next best player is Bo Naylor at .320.

The two players who joined the Guardians in August, veterans Kole Calhoun and Ramon Laureano are next at .319 and .318 each.

And since the game of baseball is measured by 27 outs, having guys who make a lot of outs is not good in terms of scoring runs.

We aren’t sure the front office thinks getting on base (err, not making outs) is a valuable skill. For exhibit A, we present Yandy Diaz.

Diaz certainly wasn’t the hitter he is today in Tampa (889 OPS), but what he did do here was get on base. He had a .361 OBP in the 88 games he played in Cleveland in 2017-18.

Last season, the Guardians traded two young outfielders, Nolan Jones and Will Benson. Their on base averages in AAA were .388 and .396 respectively. To be fair, they did receive Juan Brito for Jones, and he has a career .393 OBP in the minors to date.

The player they kept instead, Will Brennan, had a .367 OBP at the AAA level. This isn’t to bash Brennan, who seems to have improved after a mid-season slump. But he’s walked 12 times all season, less than Mike Zunino and the same number of times as Calhoun.

By the way, Jones and Benson both have a .367 OBP in the major leagues this season. That number would be the highest on the 2023 Guardians.

What is we told you they have a player on their current roster who got on base at a .393 clip at the AAA level? That player is Tyler Freeman and they can’t find a place for him right now.

We are sure there are other examples, but in 2016, Cleveland had veteran switch-hitter Robbie Grossman in training camp. Grossman has a career mark of getting on base at a .344 clip. Grossman played part of ’16 with Columbus, before being released in May.

He went to Minnesota, where he recorded OBPs of .386, .361, and .367 over the next three seasons.

We think the Cleveland organization is searching for the long ball so much, they are forgetting there are two aspects to offense, and the ability to get on base is one of them. And quite frankly, it’s probably easier to identify and obtain.

Remember this, a player with a 1.000 slugging percentage simply went 1 for 4 with a HR. A game in which a team had a 1.000 OBP would never end.

Offense Has To Improve For Guards In ’24

The Cleveland Guardians used the end of August to add to their pitching staff, but didn’t do anything to improve their hitting.

They should get Josh Naylor back any day now (perhaps today!) and without question Kole Calhoun and Ramon Laureano have added something to the ability to score runs.

Calhoun has had a number of big hits, including a big double in last Sunday’s win over Toronto and the huge three run homer in the series finale in Minnesota.

The grizzled veteran has 16 RBIs in the 21 games he has been in a Cleveland uniform. By contrast, Oscar Gonzalez has played in 51 games this season, driving in 11. And Laureano had a nice series up north, hitting a pair of long balls.

He has a 688 OPS in the 20 contests he has played here, comparing that to Will Brennan (648) or Myles Straw (604).

This is exactly what we meant when we said the front office should have added some talent at the end of July, even if it meant the team only got better incrementally. It doesn’t always have to be a big splash.

Heading to 2024, the offense needs to get better, a lot better. Bill James says a hitter who has a .350 on base percentage and a .450 slugging percentage is a very good offensive player, demonstrating the ability to get on base and drive the ball.

Right now, Cleveland has one of these players, and of course it is Jose Ramirez, who has a .351 OBP and a .481 slugging average. Josh Naylor is close, getting on base at a .346 clip and slugging at .500.

No other Guardian with 100 at bats can claim to be over those thresholds individually, let alone together. The next best player at getting on base is Steven Kwan at .337, and the next best slugger is Bo Naylor at .430.

By contrast, the Texas Rangers, who lead the AL in runs scored have just two hitters (Corey Seager and Mitch Garver) who are over both the .350/.450 guideline. But they have four players who get on base over 35% of the time and Marcus Semien is sitting at .346.

FYI, they are very close to having four of these guys, because along with Semien, Nathaniel Lowe is slashing 374/447/821.

They also have six players who are slugging over .450.

Houston is third in runs scored, and they have five hitters who get on base at a 35% clip and five hitters who slug .450.

Tampa is second in the league in runs scored, and they have three players with an on base percentage over .350 and they have six players who have a slugging average over .450.

So, the challenge for the Guardians’ front office is to find more players who can get on base, we would say at least two of them, and find two or three players who can drive the ball.

Bo Naylor might fill one of those roles.

Of the teams that strike out the least in the AL, the Guardians have by far the least amount of homers with 103. The next lowest total of teams in the top five in contact? The Baltimore Orioles with 156!

Of that top five, Cleveland has also drawn the least amount of walks with 382. Boston is the next lowest at 413.

Making contact while hitting home runs can be done, the Guardians either have to find them or develop them. But having players who make contact, but don’t get on base and don’t get a lot of home runs doesn’t work.

It’s a big challenge for the Guardians’ front office this winter.