Over the years, we have noticed this trend in Major League Baseball. While pitching is very important, especially in the post-season, (as Terry Francona used to say, when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get more), you have to score runs to get to the playoffs.
Last season in the American League, of the seven teams that scored over the league average in runs, five made the post-season. Only the Red Sox and Twins did not.
In the National League it was the same.
In 2023, the top five runs scoring teams in the AL claimed a playoff spot while in the NL, surprisingly only five teams scored above the league average and three of those played in October.
And those seasons aren’t out of the ordinary. There are certainly outliers, teams that ride their pitching to the top of the standings. And obviously, if you have a pitching staff that can limit teams to two or three runs per game, you should be successful.
Which leads us to the Cleveland Guardians, who based on this trend are going to have a tough time advancing to the playoffs as they are currently constituted.
Right now, Steven Vogt’s club is 11th in the AL in runs scored, 10th in on base percentage and 12th in slugging percentage. And that’s with Jose Ramirez, who is 7th in the league on OBP and 3rd in slugging.
Imagine what the attack would look like without the irrepressible Ramirez, who should make his 7th All-Star Game appearance and likely his seventh top 10 MVP finish the way he is playing right now.
Steven Kwan and Carlos Santana have been solid, but their specialty is getting on base at least at this point in the latter’s career. Kyle Manzardo is third on the team in slugging (behind Ramirez and Daniel Schneemann), but he figures to lose some playing time with David Fry back.
The league average in OPS is around 700, and Cleveland has just five players (5!) on the roster above that. And it is all the players we mentioned except for Fry, who has just 11 at bats.
That means on a daily basis, Vogt has to put four below average bats in his lineup. No wonder the Guardians have trouble scoring runs. And if Ramirez and/or Kwan are having days where they are going hitless, the Guards are really in trouble.
It’s worse when they face a left-hander because Vogt usually go with Jhonkensy Noel, who has an OPS under 400, career minor leaguer Will Wilson (518) who has fanned in 21 of his 56 plate appearances, and when healthy, Austin Hedges.
No doubt if top prospect Juan Brito was healthy, he’d be here. You have to wonder why Johnathan Rodriguez doesn’t get another shot. He’s hitting .325 with a 911 OPS at Columbus since being sent down in April.
He’s really the only right-handed hitter producing at AAA. C. J. Kayfus and Petey Halpin are hitting well, but they swing from the left side, and Nolan Jones’ recent stretch has earned him a longer look, although his OPS is just slightly over 600.
Our point? Unless the Guardians can find a couple of hitters who can produce, on the roster or not, they could have a problem staying in the race.
We continue to go back to the off-season inactivity of this front office/ownership. The price for that is being paid so far.
Cleveland Sports Perspective 