We have been thinking most of this baseball season that the Cleveland Guardians’ success was being done with smoke and mirrors.
Lately, we have been wondering if the mirror has a crack in it.
Yes, if the season ended today (it doesn’t), the Guardians would make the post-season via the wild card, but let’s see where they are after this 10-game stretch where they are on the road against the red-hot Twins and Tigers and then come home to take on the best team money can buy in the Dodgers.
What can Steven Vogt hang his hat on right now? The offense ranks 9th in the American League in runs scored, and in the last eight games, they have scored more than two runs just three times.
Right now, the batting order has four hitters producing: Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, Kyle Manzardo, and the surprise of the year to date, Daniel Schneemann. The league OPS is 702 and just two other batters, Angel Martinez and Gabriel Arias are around that figure.
Lane Thomas should be back soon, but while he’s really good against southpaws, whether he can help the Guardians against right-handers is a question.
Nolan Jones, the idol of the exit velocity crowd is still hitting just .181 with a 579 OPS. Will Brennan was given another shot and so far is 0 for 9.
Carlos Santana was brought back, and you have to wonder if he’s going to produce. He is now 39 after all. He’s still walking, leading the team with 23 free passes, but has just seven extra base hits on the year. His slugging percentage is just .320.
When David Fry is ready to return, and he can DH only this season, the front office will be forced to make a tough decision on Santana. Manzardo has to play and platooning him with Fry still doesn’t address the lack of production from Santana’s spot.
Cleveland thought they had shortstop solved after Brayan Rocchio’s breakout in the post-season, but it did not come to fruition. Arias has done okay, but the pop so many people envisioned hasn’t arrived. He’s slugging .393. He is drawing more walks, but his on base percentage is just .313.
The pitching staff, normally the cornerstone of the team, is also ninth in ERA and it’s a daily challenge to have a starting pitcher finish six innings. Here is the average length of a start for the Guards’ rotation–
Tanner Bibee 5.67
Luis Ortiz 5.37
Logan Allen 5.17 (prior to last night)
Ben Lively 4.96
Gavin Williams 4.67
No question this has taken a toll on the bullpen, which understandably isn’t performing as well as they did a year ago.
Cade Smith hasn’t been the fireman he was a year ago. Tim Herrin has allowed 10 walks and three homers, two things relievers cannot do, in 16 innings. Vogt has tried using Joey Cantillo out of the ‘pen, and he has had some success, but he’s also issued 12 free passes and four long balls in 22 innings.
And Jakob Junis has appeared in seven games this month and allowed runs in five of them.
The real problem is what is the alternative? C.J. Kayfus has hit well in the minors this year at both Akron and Columbus, but also has less than 400 plate appearances above Class A.
As for the rotation, with Lively down, we will see what Slade Cecconi, acquired from Arizona for Josh Naylor, can do. In the bullpen, it might be a matter of time before we see Andrew Walters, Nic Enright, or Franco Aleman.
We were surprised by the lack of activity by the Guardians after they got to the ALCS last season. It might be coming back to haunt them over the next week.
Cleveland Sports Perspective 