The Cleveland Guardians’ will start their defense of the American League Central Division title in a few weeks when spring training starts and frankly, it’s difficult to see where the team has improved.
Several fans have pointed out to us that the Guardians’ front office moves stealthily, so maybe something will happen in the next few weeks. However, we think it is safe to say the ownership really doesn’t want to spend money, so maybe not.
Last season, the average Major League team scored 4.39 runs per game. Cleveland scored 4.40, ranking 14th in the majors. The average OPS was 711, the Guardians were 16th with a 703 mark.
Let’s look at the 711 figure, again which is what the average major league player does. Among players with 100 or more plate appearances, the Guardians had five: Jose Ramirez at 872, David Fry, who will miss the first half of the season, at 804, Steven Kwan (793), Josh Naylor, since traded, at 776, and Jhonkensy Noel at 774.
They added Carlos Santana to replace Naylor, and he had a 749 OPS.
So, a look at the Guardians’ opening day lineup, assuming a right-hander starts probably looks like this–
LF Kwan (793)
DH Kyle Manzardo (703)
3B Ramirez (872)
1B Santana (749)
CF Lane Thomas (709)
2B Juan Brito (no MLB at bats, but 807 at AAA)
RF Will Brennan (697)
C Bo Naylor (614)
SS Brayan Rocchio (614)
Remember, that Santana last year vs. RHP had a 676 OPS, not good. So what you have is two solid bats in Ramirez and Kwan, Thomas is average, but another player with an extreme platoon split (878 vs. lefties, 647 vs. righties), and a bunch of guys who really have no track record.
We like Manzardo’s potential, he had a 946 OPS in AAA last season, but he has less than 200 MLB plate appearances. Brito has never stepped into the box in a big league game. Brennan has over 800 plate appearances and a career 685 OPS.
He’s the worst combination as a hitter thus far, a singles hitter who doesn’t walk. If you are going to be that, you have to hit .330. Brennan does not.
Naylor has had two seasons with Cleveland, one good with the bat, last season, not so good. And also, Rocchio had a very good post-season, that 614 OPS isn’t good.
We have always maintained that although pitching is king in the playoffs, you have to score runs to get there. If you look at the teams who score the most in the regular season, more likely than not, those teams get to play in October.
Our question for the Guardians is where will the runs come from? Yes, yes, the people who believe in every prospect will tell me Manzardo and Brito are going to be productive, and things will be just fine.
But what’s the alternative? If Brito doesn’t hit, the Guardians have to go back to the likes of Gabriel Arias (608), Tyler Freeman (626), and Daniel Schneemann (671). And if Manzardo isn’t hitting like he did in September and October, then who? Chase DeLauter? Noel? Johnathan Rodriguez?
And by the way, we like DeLauter, but he’s had 23 at bats at AAA. And Noel? We aren’t warm and fuzzy about a guy with a 63:13 K/BB ratio.
A bigger question is what if Santana doesn’t recover his stroke vs. RHP and becomes dead weight against those pitchers?
Front offices have to build teams, contending teams, with an eye on what if things don’t go right? We ask this question…where are the runs coming from?
Cleveland Sports Perspective 