We are often asked if it is easier to write about a team when they are playing well or struggling, and it’s a simple answer really, when a team is not playing well, you are always able to write about things they can do to improve.
Currently, the Cleveland Guardians sit at 480-26 and have a seven game lead in the AL Central over Minnesota and 7.5 games over Kansas City. They have a nine game lead in the loss column.
Yet, we continue to read from folks how players currently at Columbus could help them. Offensively, there are two things a player can do, get on base and move runners who are already on base (i.e. on base percentage and slugging percentage).
The current average on base average in the American League is .309. Of the players who get the most at bats on the Guardians, there is one player who falls well below that threshold, Bo Naylor, currently at .253.
The average slugging percentage is .393. There are many Guardians who fall below the league average in this department, but as a team, Cleveland sits at .401, most due to the efforts of Jose Ramirez (.521), Josh Naylor (.502) and Steven Kwan (.545).
One thing people do is look at minor league statistics and equate them to the big leagues. That, of course, is ridiculous. The minor leagues are the minor leagues for a reason, the best players in the sport aren’t there. So, if you look at what a player is doing in Columbus, you have to figure those numbers will come down when they get to the big club.
We’ve seen it already. Kyle Manzardo was raking in AAA and then struggled with the Guardians. He was walking at a very high rate in the minors, and then had a 23:3 strikeout to walk ratio in the bigs.
We are guilty of it too, but we try to look at the biggest weakness of the team compared to the rest of the league. Right now, the Cleveland starting rotation has the worst WAR in the AL. That’s why the front office should be trying to upgrade that spot.
For the record, the other spots where the Guardians are below average are at catcher and in right field. Everywhere else, including the two spots most people seem to refer to, shortstop and centerfield, they are better or at league average.
The organization has done a great job promoting Daniel Schneemann, who was red hot at AAA, and so far, his offensive success has carried over to the big-league level. It helps that he is versatile enough to play all over the diamond.
If you are a contending team, and no doubt the Guardians are that sure you might catch lightning in a bottle with a minor league prospect, but the reality says you need to get someone who has had major league success.
We like developing players like everyone else, but if we are going to give up a higher tier prospect, we want to fill the biggest hole on the current roster. And right now, that’s the rotation.
Yes, Gavin Williams should be back soon, but really, we hope he pitches like he did a year ago, but it wouldn’t be prudent for the organization to put all their eggs in that basket.
If you want to give up a top five or even top ten player in your organization, you go get a proven big-league starter. One that can pitch in a playoff series.
You don’t bank on prospects.
Cleveland Sports Perspective 