The Cleveland Guardians have just 15 games remaining in what has been a very disappointing season.
Before the season we said it was very difficult to project how the team would do because most of the players had no proven track record because they were so young and had no experience.
For example, it was probably fool’s gold to say Jose Ramirez would duplicate what he did last season, which was likely a career year. But since Ramirez has been the league for a long time, you can feel pretty confident in saying he will hit 25 home runs, knock in 90-100, and bat around .280.
You couldn’t say that about anyone else projected to be in this season’s starting lineup.
Last season, Andres Gimenez was spectacular, hitting 17 homers and batting .297 with an 837 OPS. This season, his batting average has dropped to .242, his power has dropped 12 dingers.
What kind of player is Gimenez? Defensively, he has remained great, deserving of a second Gold Glove. Offensively? We will likely find out next season. We think you can figure somewhere in the middle, around a 760 OPS which with his glove, makes him a middle infield starter.
Where? He may move back to shortstop, and frankly, he would be our first choice at the position.
Steven Kwan has been reliable compared to most of the balance of the starting lineup, but his numbers have also regressed, dropping from a 772 OPS in ’22 to 715 in ’23. Most of that drop has been his on base percentage, which is .341 compared to .372 a year ago.
If Kwan can get to .350, he’s a solid leadoff hitter and we still think he can become a guy who can get to 10 homers on a yearly basis.
The only players who have exceeded expectations among the everyday players share the same last name: Naylor.
Josh is heading into his prime and raised his OPS from 771 to 849. If not for an oblique injury which cost him August, we would have knocked in 100 runs and still could do it with a hot finish. Again, he’s just 26 years old.
Bo Naylor has greatly improved the team’s offense at the catcher position. Last season, Austin Hedges and Luke Maile combined for 10 homers and 47 RBIs, and a .185 batting average.
Naylor has a 757 OPS, third best on the team for players with over 100 at bats. Why he doesn’t hit higher in the order, particularly in the last month when he has compiled a 1045 OPS (.315 average, 4 HR, 10 RBI) is one of the great mysteries surrounding the team.
Of course, he will go into next season in the same boat as Gimenez and Kwan. That is, with no track record.
So, unless some experienced players are brought in, the Guardians won’t be in a much different position entering 2024. If players like Gabriel Arias or Tyler Freeman are starting, no one will have any idea how they will be able to contribute offensively.
It will still be dependent on Ramirez and Josh Naylor to provide offense and that doesn’t seem like a recipe for success.
Cleveland Sports Perspective 