Tomorrow is May 1st, and yesterday evening, the Cleveland Guardians played their 27th game of the season, the 1/6th point of the year. That’s the time we take our first overall view of the team.
Under Terry Francona, this first part of the year is the “feeling out” period. Look at Cleveland’s record at this point over the last six seasons:
2023: 13-14
2022: 13-14
2021: 14-13
2020: 17-10
2019: 15-12
2018: 15-12
The best record came in the pandemic shortened season of 2020. It’s an old baseball adage that you can’t win a pennant (now, post-season berth) in April, but you can lose one, and the Guardians certainly don’t screw up a season at the beginning.
So far, it’s the offense that hasn’t lived up to expectations. The Guards are currently 12th in the American League in runs scored at 3.85. The home run power, which the front office tried to address with the signing of Josh Bell, hasn’t materialized yet, as Cleveland ranks last in the league in round trippers.
What the Guards do well is walk, ranking second in the AL in bases on balls. They are 8th in on-base percentage, and 13th in slugging percentage. They get doubles and triples but no long balls.
Individually, only the great Jose Ramirez and Mike Zunino have performed up to expectations with the bat. The latter has struck out a ton, as advertised, but he’s walked a higher rate than ever.
Steven Kwan has gotten on base (.358 OBP), but so far, he hasn’t driven the ball, with only four extra base hits (three 2B, one 3B).
The players counted on for middle of the order production have all got off to slow starts. Josh Naylor is hitting .214 with 3 HR and 15 RBI (619 OPS). Bell is at .214, 3 HR, 13 RBI (714 OPS), and Oscar Gonzalez is at .188, 1 HR, 4 RBI (509 OPS) and is now sharing time in right field with Will Brennan.
Naylor is starting to look like a platoon player, going 2 for 22 vs. southpaws this year and his career mark vs. LHP is .199 with a 538 OPS. Unfortunately, right now the Guardians don’t have a right-handed hitting alternative.
The pitching ranks 7th in ERA, but the starting rotation has been riddled by injuries to Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale. McKenzie has been out all year, while Civale has made just two appearances.
Compounding the injuries has been the relative ineffectiveness of Cal Quantrill (1-2, 5.40 ERA) and Zach Plesac (1-1, 7.59). Quantrill has made two solid starts, but also two poor ones, while Plesac has just one good one, his second outing vs. Seattle.
On the year, he has pitched 21-1/3 innings, and allowed a whopping total of 37 hits and 18 earned runs.
Last week saw the promotion of two of the Guardians’ top pitching prospects, lefty Logan Allen and right-hander Tanner Bibee. Both pitched very well, and if they continue to do so, the organization is going to have to make a decision.
The strength of the team has been pitching and the rotation is the backbone. Francona depends on the starters to eat innings, lessening the burden on the relief corps. The Guardians need Quantrill to pitch like he did a year ago, and Allen and Bibee to hold down the fort.
The ‘pen has been sporadic, but over the last week have started doing better. They have been allowing too many home runs. James Karinchak in particular has struggled, but Eli Morgan has pitched like he did early last season.
The Guardians need to get the offense going more consistently and have the starters pitch much better. It’s still early and history says Francona’s teams get better as the year goes on.
Hopefully, history repeats itself.
Cleveland Sports Perspective 