The baseball season is now into August. The trading deadline has passed, so you can only improve your team though what you have in your farm system or by getting improvement from players currently on your roster.
It’s now August 9th and the Cleveland Guardians are still just one game out of first place in the AL Central Division and just two games behind in the race for the third wild card spot in the playoffs.
The Guardians’ front office didn’t make any moves at the trade deadline, so they will have to improve from within, and surprisingly, the biggest area for improvement needs to come from what everyone thought was a strength coming into the 2022 season: The starting rotation.
And unlike last season, the biggest factor hasn’t been injuries. Outside of Aaron Civale, who will come off the injured list tomorrow, the other members of the rotation have all made their scheduled starts.
In terms of WAR, the only team getting less out of their starters is Detroit. By comparison, last year, despite Shane Bieber, Civale, and Zach Plesac all missing considerable amounts of time, the rotation ranked 9th in the AL.
And in 2020, the shortened season which also saw Bieber winning the Cy Young Award, the Cleveland starters were the best in the American League.
That season, we felt the team had a chance to win in every single game because of the starting rotation, which was comprised of Bieber, Civale, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, and Plesac, with Triston McKenzie joining after Clevinger was dealt.
This season, we only have that feeling when Bieber, McKenzie, and Quantrill take the hill, and the latter has had a penchant for giving up leads when the offense gives him run support.
For all of the discussion of Bieber’s drop in velocity, he’s given the Guardians a chance to win in 18 of his 20 starts to date. He’s still allowing less than a hit per inning and striking out the same, with 126 K’s in 124-2/3 frames this season.
When McKenzie stays away from the three run home run, he has shown “ace” stuff. He’s allowed just 90 hits and 33 walks in 128 innings, to go with 121 punch outs. He has done his best work against the best teams in the league, New York and Houston, going 22 innings allowing just one run in three games against them.
Quantrill, who pitched so well in the second half last year as a starter, has made 21 starts and has been spotty. We don’t like the quality start stat (6 IP, 3 runs or less) because that’s not that good, but in only six outings this season has Quantrill pitched at least six frames and allowed two runs or less.
He’s given the Guardians innings, and generally keeps the team in the game.
Plesac actually has more of those games than Quantrill (he has eight), but lately, he’s been a mess. In his last five starts, which have only covered 23 innings, he’s allowed 18 runs (7.04 ERA). He’s suffered a lack of run support all year, and right now he seems to be trying to throw the perfect pitch every time.
He walked five in his last start vs. the Astros.
Civale got off to a slow start (9.85 ERA in his first six starts) and got hurt pitching his best game of the year to that point (6-1/3 IP, 0 ER on May 20th vs. DET). He missed a month, and looked much better, allowing 10 runs in 22 innings in four starts (4.09 ERA).
His last start was July 13th against the White Sox when he pitched one inning.
Our point is if this team has any chance to contend, the starting pitching as a whole has to be much better. Both Quantrill and McKenzie were fabulous over the weekend, combining for 14 scoreless innings.
But everyone has to contribute on a turn by turn basis. If the starting pitching can get back to the way they’ve performed in the past, this Guardians team can hang in there until the end.
And they will justify the front office’s decision not to add a starter at the deadline.
Cleveland Sports Perspective 