Everybody Has an Opinion on Browns Draft

 

The NFL Draft is a little over a month away and the best news regarding this is it will put an end to the constant speculation as to what the Browns should do with the #3 pick in this year’s Selection Meeting (yes, that is what it is technically called).  Columnists and talk show callers and hosts alike all have a theory as to what GM Phil Savage should do with the pick.  As someone once said, "Opinions are like _____, everybody has one". 

 

The first theory is that you don’t need a good quarterback to win the Super Bowl.  Mostly avowed by followers of the Ravens, these people say a great defense and a very good running game can have you holding the Lombardi Trophy.  Heck, the Ravens won with Trent Dilfer calling signals.  First of all, how many QB’s like Dilfer have won the big game?  The last five winners were led by Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisburger, Tom Brady (twice), and Brad Johnson.  All but Johnson were very good to Hall of Fame type players.  Looking over the history of football, you will find most winners were led by guys like Montana, Starr, Bradshaw, etc.  Great quarterbacks.  You need a guy who’s better than average to win.  This is not to say Charlie Frye or Derek Anderson are that type of player, but can anyone say with certainty that Brady Quinn or JaMarcus Russell is? 

 

The next theory is that you have to draft offensive linemen.  This is held popular by Steeler fans, because they have used this formula and it has worked for them.  However, the World Champion Colts have just one first round pick who starts, and he (Tarik Glenn) was drafted ten years ago.  The rest of their line is made up of an undrafted free agent, a player released by the Chiefs, and two mid-round picks (4th and 5th round).  Please notice that the Patriots aren’t using first round choices to build the offensive line either.  Wisconsin’s Joe Thomas is the pick du jour for these people, but does anyone remember Robert Gallery?  The one time next great offensive lineman has not developed as a great pro. 

 

Another theory is to trade down.  These people remember the success Jimmy Johnson had with the Cowboys in 90’s.  As with most trades, the fans will come up with deals such as trading the #3 pick for a current starter, that team’s first round pick (usually in the top 10), and three other mid round picks.  This theory depends on there being someone who is so desirable that other teams will want to give up a good bounty to get him.  This year, that guy is Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson.  Savage may indeed trade down from #3, but the best he can probably hope for is another 2nd round pick.  You have to weigh whether or not you want to give up the chance to get a superstar to get another good player.  Trading the next LaDainian Tomlinson (maybe Adrian Peterson is that) would not be a good move.

 

The best theory is to take the best player available.  To build your franchise by obtaining talent.  The corollary of this theory is that you must have someone who can evaluate talent correctly.  If you don’t have a person like that, you can have high picks forever and you will not develop a winner.   Don’t bother with workout wonders and guys who can run well while not in pads, pick football players.  If you have a good talent guru, you will also be able to capitalize on other team’s mistakes in misreading a player.  There are plenty of NFL All Pro players who have been cut by somebody else. 

 

Do the Cleveland Browns have such a man?  They think they do in Phil Savage, and his track record as a scout is pretty good.  However, there’s more than one way to build a winning football team.  Just because someone else did it that way doesn’t mean it works out for everybody.  That’s what the Browns have to guard against…being a copycat.

 

JD