Are We Pessimistic on the Tribe?

 

The Plain Dealer’s Paul Hoynes picks the Tribe for 4th in the American League Central this season.  The other night on "More Sports and Les Levine", the PD’s Dennis Manoloff agrees with the paper’s beat writer.  Is our usual pessimism causing us the downgrade this year’s edition of the Cleveland Indians?  We thought the Tribe was headed to the post season last year, so we might be accused on being overly optimistic.  But, is the rest of the division that overwhelming?

 

Last year’s division champs, the Minnesota Twins have lost Francisco Liriano to an elbow injury and Brad Radke to retirement.  That’s 2/5 of their starting rotation.  The rest of the rotation consists of youngsters Boof Bonser and Matt Garza, who pitched well in spots last season, and veterans Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson.  Their offense is lead by AL MVP Justin Morneau and batting champ Joe Mauer, but they received big contributions from guys like Nick Punto and Jason Tyner, which probably will not be duplicated.  The Twins have a great bullpen, but if you can’t get six or seven solid innings from the starters, it doesn’t matter how good the starters are.

 

Last year’s AL Champs, the Detroit Tigers had one of those seasons where everything fell into place.  Justin Verlander won 17 games as a rookie, pitching more innings than he had ever pitched.  Kenny Rogers won 17 more even though he has passed 40 years of age.  They received excellent seasons from Brandon Inge, Marcus Thames, and Craig Monroe.  They added Gary Sheffield, one of the best hitters in the game.  However, there certainly are many players on the Tigers who had better seasons that they’ve ever had before.  Also, this is not a young team.  Curtis Granderson is their only regular under 29 years old.

 

The White Sox failed to defend their World Championship last year because their starting pitching fell apart.  So, they traded Freddy Garcia and starter in waiting Brandon McCarthy.  They need Mark Buerhle to bounce back, and hope that Jon Garland and Javier Vazquez pitch better than their ’06 performances.  They’ve taken the same tact as the Twins in strengthening their relief corps to try and shorten the game and take some pressure off of the starters.  They can still score runs as well, but the pitching is what cost them last season.

 

Again, this is not to say the Indians will walk away with the AL Central Division title.  They have question marks in the bullpen and you have to wonder did they improve the infield defense.  Will Andy Marte hit?  Will Jhonny Peralta bounce back?  The point here is that the other teams in the Central have questions as well.  You can certainly see the Tigers and Twins sliding back to 85-90 wins.  They are not the 1927 Yankees. 

 

It will be a four team race in what shapes up as the best division in baseball.  Once again, the Tribe could win 88 games this season and finish third in the Central.  Then again, that number of wins could win the division.  If all four teams beat each other up, a lower win total could take the crown.  The Indians have to do better within the division.  It could come down to which of the contenders have the best record against the Royals.  If the bullpen is fixed, the Tribe has as good a chance as anyone else in the division.

 

KM