It’s Up To Tribe To Cause Excitement In Team

The Cleveland Indians held their annual TribeFest last weekend, meaning spring training is just around the corner.

In about 30 days, the Tribe will convene in Goodyear, trying to defend three consecutive Central Division titles. The question is, who besides the players currently on the roster will be joining them.

Baseball seems to be in a bit of a holding pattern, waiting for the two marquee free agents, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, to sign.

While many teams have been bolstering their rosters for the upcoming season, the Indians have said thank you for your service to several mainstays from the past three years.

Gone are Michael Brantley (Houston), Andrew Miller (St. Louis), Edwin Encarnacion (traded to Seattle), Cody Allen (free agent), Yan Gomes (traded to Washington), and Yonder Alonso (dealt to the White Sox).

Carlos Santana is back, but otherwise, no one would recognize any of the players the front office has brought into the clubhouse.

Right now, the projected lineup appears to be dotted with holes, and the bullpen, a major area of weakness a year ago, hasn’t been approved.

Meanwhile, ownership seems to have taken the position that because attendance was down in 2018, they not only aren’t going to increase the payroll, they aren’t going to hit the figure they spent heading into the ’18 season.

That position is the root of the problem baseball fans here have with the Dolan family. They feel the front office should spend when they have a chance to win the World Series, not simply when they get an attendance boost.

With arguably the best starting rotation in the game, and two of the best position players in baseball, why not take a shot at ending a title drought at 71 years. This isn’t the time to draw a line in the sand with the people who buy tickets to watch your team.

Perhaps once Harper and Machado sign, the front office will spring into action and will the holes that exist in the everyday lineup, notably the outfield and the bullpen.

There are plenty of options still out there, and maybe the waiting will play into the hands of the Indians’ braintrust and they will get real good players at below market prices.

However, that approach doesn’t exactly sell tickets. With all of the excitement surrounding the Browns right now, shouldn’t the folks at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario want to muscle in on that spotlight?

We understand it is a business and they have a right to make a profit, but on the other hand it’s an entertainment business. People go to games as a night out, a recreational activity, so you have to give them a reason to travel to Progressive Field.

There was a buzz after the World Series, and the Tribe capitalized on it by signing Encarnacion as a free agent. During the season, they added Jay Bruce when Michael Brantley was injured, and dealt for bullpen help in Joe Smith.

After that season, Santana left and Yonder Alonso replaced him, which got no one excited.

Last year, the Indians made a splash in the bullpen getting Brad Hand from San Diego and picked up Leonys Martin at the deadline. The Hand move created buzz, but it was more about trying to fix a disastrous bullpen.

What we are saying is that it’s the responsible of the team to create excitement, it’s not up to the fans.

We would tell everyone about Frankie Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and the other all star caliber players wearing an Indians’ uniform.

Instead they complain about attendance and ask out loud why people don’t go to the games. That’s not going to help.

Why Tribe Needs To Deal A Starter.

After the Cleveland Indians dealt Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso in separate deals last week, there were many who felt the Tribe no longer needed to deal a starting pitcher.

We don’t feel that way.

We still believe a starter, either Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, will be moved before spring training (probably before the end of the calendar year) to clear out more money and to bring some young, controllable bats to the Cleveland lineup.

As it stands right now, the Indians lineup isn’t that strong. Here is a projected batting order for Opening Day–

Carlos Santana DH
Francisco Lindor SS
Jose Ramirez 3B
Jake Bauers 1B
Jason Kipnis 2B
Jordan Luplow RF
Tyler Naquin LF
Roberto Perez C
Leonys Martin CF

Is that lineup good enough to win 85 games, let alone 90? That’s up for debate to be sure.

And while the Cleveland rotation would be the best in the game, in the regular season, you need to score runs to win. The only team that reached to post-season in 2018 that didn’t finish in the top five of their respective league in runs scored was the Milwaukee Brewers, who were 7th.

In the post-season, pitching can and usually does dominate. But you have to score runs to get there, and right now, we aren’t convinced the Tribe has enough firepower.

It seems like much of the talk recently is about Kluber, and we are sure the “jokes” about trading a two time Cy Young Award winner will be plentiful.

However, if you can move the right-hander and his $17 million salary for 2019, and get a bat or two, or perhaps a bat and a reliable bullpen arm in return, doesn’t that lengthen the lineup?

And that’s exactly want the Indians need.

Let’s say Kluber is moved to Cincinnati for a package centering around top ten prospect, Nick Senzel, who would play third for Cleveland and is major league ready, OF Scott Schebler (who we don’t really like, but…) and reliever Amir Garrett.

With the money saved by dealing Kluber, the Cleveland front office signs Nick Markakis as a free agent on a one year deal. Suddenly, the Tribe lineup looks like this–

Santana DH
Senzel 3B
Ramirez 2B
Lindor SS
Markakis RF
Luplow LF
Bauers 1B
Perez C
Martin CF

And you would have Kipnis as a platoon player in left field and Greg Allen to play center against left handed pitching. If Senzel is the player everyone thinks he is, you now have a lineup that has more length, and should score more runs.

We don’t think something like this is possible without moving a starting pitcher. Perhaps the front office can be super creative and pull off a miracle, and we would love to see that.

Besides, your starting rotation would still be Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, and a mix of Adam Plutko, Cody Anderson, or perhaps Danny Salazar.

That’s good enough to get the Indians into the post-season, and once you get there, you only use four starters anyway.

It doesn’t have to be the Reds, certainly the Dodgers are a possibility and other teams as well. But, people who think the Indians only need one bat are delusional in our opinion, they need at least two.

The other way we see to make that happen in to deal from strength, and that means a starting pitcher.

We think the Tribe front office thinks the same way.

Tribe’s Off-Season “Plan” Makes Sense

We thought the Cleveland Indians would have made a major move by now, and by the time you read this, perhaps they have.

What is puzzling is the way a possible major trade by the Tribe front office is being viewed by many baseball fans here.

Part of it is reflex. Many people (including us) lived through the desert from 1960-1994, where the Indians where pretty much a joke throughout the sport, struggling to make payroll, and seemingly without a plan on how to be competitive.

The other part is the nagging thought that the Dolan family wants to cut the team’s payroll. Now, it is fair to say they don’t want to increase the budget for major league player’s salaries, we will stay firm to our belief that the Cleveland payroll will still be somewhere over $120 million in 2019.

After reaching the World Series in 2016, and having the best record in the American League the following year, last year’s team showed signs of regression.

Cleveland has the third oldest position player roster in the AL, and 4th oldest in all of the majors a year ago, behind the Mariners, Giants, and Angels. Every regular was over 30 years old except for Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor.

It’s tough to figure on any increased production for any player who has entered his 30’s. We aren’t saying it’s impossible, but it certainly isn’t likely.

So, the conundrum the front office has is improving the everyday lineup, and to do that, they likely have to deal from the strength of the team, the starting rotation.

Think about it. Comparing last year’s team to a possible 2019 lineup, where do you see improvement?

1B–Yonder Alonso was a disappointment and would not figure to get better.
2B–Jose Ramirez will be better than Jason Kipnis (but see below)
SS–Lindor, enough said
3B–We like Yandy Diaz, but he isn’t going to have a better year than Ramirez
LF–If Kipnis is the nominal starter there, he’s not hitting better than Michael Brantley
CF–A platoon of Leonys Martin and Greg Allen, might be an improvement
RF–Jordan Luplow? Are we sure he’s better than the Melky Cabrera/Brandon Guyer platoon?
C–Roberto Perez won’t likely hit better than Yan Gomes did a year ago.
DH–Edwin Encarnacion is turning 36 next month.

That’s three spots where you can legitimately think of increased production with people currently on the roster. Doesn’t bode well for a more balanced and better hitting attack in 2019.

So, if you can trade a starting pitcher like Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer and improve your team at one or possibly two spots, doesn’t that make sense?

And if it’s Kluber, and you gain some cash to upgrade another position through free agency or my by getting a player another team wants to unload because of salary, isn’t that the right move?

This isn’t the NBA, where other teams will give you a good player for the expiring contract of a mediocre player. So, no one is going to give you a young, ready to play prospect for Jason Kipnis.

The front office knows they need to make the everyday line up better, and they are trying to make a trade from a position for strength.

It might be tough to swallow, but it absolutely makes sense.

Gomes Move Is First Step To Reallocating Payroll

The Indians dealt another key member of the team over the last five seasons on Friday, moving catcher Yan Gomes to the Washington Nationals for two minor leaguers (the 7th and 8th prospects on Baseball America’s mid season report.

Immediately, the criticism began from the Tribe is cheap faction in fandom. We say let’s see. If the Indians’ payroll is not close to where it was last season, then there is a valid argument.

However, as we have said all along, if Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff want to improve the 2018 Indians, they will need to clear some cash from the books, and that would give them the flexibility to add some players.

The Plain Dealer’s Paul Hoynes said it is difficult to contend while you rebuild, and while we agree in most cases, when you have two of the league’s top ten players in Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, it is a bit easier.

Gomes will turn 32 next July, so he is past his prime. While still an excellent defensive catcher and handler of a pitching staff, here are his OPS since coming to Cleveland in 2013:

2013: 826
2014: 785
2015: 659
2016: 527
2017: 708
2018: 762

Last season was Gomes’ best offensively since ’14, so logic tells you he was going to slip back a bit in 2019. He’s not a guy who has real strike zone judgment either, his career high in walks being 31 in 2017.

In our opinion, that doesn’t lead to a player sustaining decent offensive numbers as he ages.

With Gomes making $7 million this year and with club options for ’20 ($9 million) and ’21 ($11 million), the brass figured they didn’t want to pay that kind of money for a season that probably won’t be as productive as last, so they dumped his salary.

That doesn’t mean there is a “fire sale” going on, it simply means the Indians are doing what we said they need to do since the off-season began, and that is reallocate the payroll.

They have a lot of money tied up in players who no longer are producing up to the level of their contracts: Edwin Encarnacion ($21.7 million), Jason Kipnis ($14.7 million), and Yonder Alonso ($8 million).

All of these guys are on the other side of 30 years old, and there performance has declined. Let’s say the Indians could manage to trade all three of them, plus Gomes, and that would clear over $51 million in salary, and if they plan to have a payroll close to 2018 level, it gives them a lot to spend.

If they decide to deal a starting pitcher, again, it is a move designed to reallocate funds and also a trade made from strength.

With the emergence of Shane Bieber, and the coming arrival of Triston McKenzie, there may be no better time to move a starter.

We would hate to see Corey Kluber dealt, but he will be 33 in April. If you can move him and get a young hitter and another young pitcher in return, you have to think about it.

You still have Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, Bieber, and you can get another veteran starter with the money you save to hold you over until McKenzie is ready.

Remember too, the three pitchers Cleveland was obtained since the end of the season (Chih-Wei Hu, Walker Lockett, and Jeffy Rodriguez) all have starting experience in AAA.

So, don’t make any rash judgments on what the front office is doing until they are finished. We aren’t someone who think the Dolan ownership does no wrong, but right now, we believe the front office is just moving soon to be dead money in favor of younger players with upside.

And that’s what they should do.

Going Forward–Tribe Needs To Use Entire Roster

The Cleveland Indians will clinch the American League Central Division title sometime this week, but right now they look like a team running on fumes.

Several of the everyday players look to need a few days off, most notably MVP candidate Jose Ramirez, who over the last month is hitting just .172 with one home run and a 572 OPS.

Over the same time frame, Yonder Alonso is batting .187, also with a pair of dingers and a 542 OPS.

Even Francisco Lindor’s numbers have dropped off. He has a .255 batting average and five homers, but his OPS is just 703.

Are these just slumps, or have the dog days of August set in, with the fatigue that goes with playing everyday in a summer where the temperatures have been high?

In the case of Lindor and Ramirez, both young players at 24 and 25 (for now, Ramirez turns 26 in less than a week), it could be that they are tired, both having played everyday (Lindor 141 games, Ramirez 140 out of a possible 142).

To be sure, neither player wants to sit out. Their attitude is to go out everyday and compete, and that is a very noble thing to want to do.

However, we noticed yesterday that Erik Gonzalez has been on the 25 man roster the entire season, and has just 129 plate appearances, striking us incredibly low for someone here all season.

While Gonzalez has put up a .285 batting average and a 716 OPS to date, we feel his lack of strike zone judgment (32 strikeouts to 5 walks) would be exposed if was in the lineup more often.

Should he or a perhaps more productive utility player get more at bats during the regular season to give Lindor and Ramirez some rest to keep them fresh for the stretch drive?

We understand the Tribe was caught in a tough place with Gonzalez, as he was out of options coming into the season. Typically, young players have a problem with a bench role, although considering his limited playing time, he has done well.

The point is it is obvious that Terry Francona isn’t comfortable putting his name in the lineup. And it’s easier for sure to write Lindor and Ramirez on the card.

This year is a luxury, the Tribe is cruising to a post-season berth. But what if the Twins were hot and were cutting into the lead on a weekly basis? Having a third of your everyday players, particularly on a top heavy offense, slumping isn’t good.

On the other hand, perhaps Ramirez’ struggles are a result of being too pull happy and a little too conscious of his home run total. Opposing teams are using extreme shifts against him, and when he came to the majors he was a player who used all fields.

Alonso’s troubles could be strictly from losing his strike zone judgment. His walk rate is at 8.7% this season, compared to 13.1% a year ago. And he is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

It appears the first baseman has played himself into a platoon role for the post-season, with either Yandy Diaz or Edwin Encarnacion with someone else being the designated hitter.

There are 25 men on a roster, and why not use all of them. Especially to keep players fresh over the long six month season.

Hopefully the rest they will get after the Indians clinch will be enough for October.

Tribe Needs Encarnacion, Alonso To Be Productive In October

We have been talking about the Cleveland Indians’ offense for over a month now and how strange it is that the Tribe ranks 3rd in the AL in runs scored per game with really only three players having above average seasons.

We will point out again that Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are having arguably two of the five best hitting seasons in baseball, because if they weren’t, the Cleveland offense would be in big trouble.

Can they win in the post-season with only three players carrying the load at the plate?

Terry Francona’s squad ranks 4th in the American League in on base percentage, despite having only those three hitters above the league average in that category (.317).

Yes, Erik Gonzalez and Lonnie Chisenhall are higher, but they have limited plate appearances. Edwin Encarnacion sits right at the league average, while Yonder Alonso is just below at .314.

Alonso has an OBP of .365 in 2017, and his career mark is .336, so he is well below both of those marks. Encarnacion was at .377 last season, his highest mark since 2012, mostly because he reached a career high with 102 walks.

This season, his walk rate is down, and so is his batting average, down to .229 currently after hitting .258 a walk ago.

Here are the other on base percentages for the players who get the most playing time for the Tribe:

Yan Gomes .300
Jason Kipnis .307
Brandon Guyer .284
Rajai Davis .296
Greg Allen .264
Roberto Perez .247

The Cleveland attack is inconsistent because of it.

Among the teams with the highest run scoring totals in the AL, it was surprising to see the Indians ranking only behind Boston and New York in terms of number of games scoring three runs or less. The Tribe has done this 43 times, compared to 30 for the Yankees and 34 for the Red Sox.

By contrast, Houston has scored less than four runs 47 times, Texas 50 times, and Oakland 51 times.

The Indians do rank behind only Boston in number of games with 10 or more runs, having done that 14 times (Red Sox 17).

The concern for us is how this will work in the playoffs. The other teams are going to go out of their way to not allow Lindor or Ramirez to beat them, so it is important that someone, anyone, steps up.

It won’t be unusual to see managers pass Lindor to get to Brantley, and/or skip Ramirez to get to Encarnacion. Really, who else is going to hurt them the way the lineup is currently constructed.

The point is someone else has to step up or the front office is going to have to get another bat.

Leonys Martin looked like he could help vs. right-handed pitching, but he looks like he may be out of the lineup for awhile with a non-baseball related issue.

Will Chisenhall be able to get back in the lineup, and even if he does, can he stay healthy for the post-season?

We would say at this point, neither Martin nor Chisenhall will be useful come playoff time.

So, can the offense be more consistent and efficient unless changes are made? We’d say the most likely scenarios would be Encarnacion or Alonso getting better because they were better a year ago.

Gomes is who he is, and Kipnis hasn’t been good at the plate since the World Series in 2016. That’s a long slump.

Until then, we are officially worried about the hitting come playoff time. That’s the problem relying on two players, no matter how good they are.

Tribe Isn’t Walking, And They Aren’t Scoring

The Cleveland Indians had one of baseball’s best offenses a year ago, finishing third in the American League in runs scored.

They were second in the AL in on base percentage, slugging percentage, and walks taken, and ranked eighth in the Junior Circuit in home runs.

Although it is very early this season, the Tribe is 12th in the American League in runs scored. While certainly the cold weather has been a factor, Detroit and Minnesota have both scored more runs per game than Terry Francona’s club, and they have played in pretty much the same climate.

One area in which the Indians have slipped greatly so far this year is in patience at the plate, as they are currently second last in the AL in walks taken.

While some people may point at the absence of walk-master Carlos Santana in the batting order for the drop off, we would point out than Santana’s replacement, Yonder Alonso, is third on the team in walks, behind Jose Ramirez and Jason Kipnis.

The lack of walks is a big reason the Cleveland offense has been largely dependent on the long ball for scoring. If you can convert three or four outs into walks during a game, particularly after a base hit, you have a rally going. And the more rallies a team has, the better chance of getting that hit which scores a run and keeps pressure on the opposing pitcher.

Look at Francisco Lindor, for example. Last year, he walked 60 times, striking out in 93 at bats. This year, he has fanned 21 times, second on the squad, and walked just six times.

Edwin Encarnacion is another case in point. Yes, the slugger struck out 133 times a year ago, but he balanced that by taking 104 bases on balls. This season, he has walked just six times while striking out a team leading 24 times.

Platoon outfielder Austin Jackson joined the patience at the plate club last year for the Indians, drawing 33 walks in 318 plate appearances, one for every 9.6 at bats. His replacement, Rajai Davis, has walked just twice in 35 times at the dish.

And while Michael Brantley doesn’t strikeout a lot, he did draw a walk every 12.1 plate appearances a year ago, compared to just one walk in 48 times up this year.

Add in the two youngsters on the Tribe, OFs Bradley Zimmer, who has fanned 19 times vs. just two walks, and Tyler Naquin, who has drawn just two bases on balls against 11 whiffs, and that isn’t helping the offense keep the line moving.

Conversely, the Indians’ leader in walks is Jose Ramirez with 13 (6 strikeouts), and the switch-hitting All Star is hot after a slow start, and is looking like the Ramirez from 2017.

That Cleveland is 5-6 when they score three runs or less is a tribute to the tremendous job the pitching staff, led by the starters, have done.

No doubt it is early, and a few weeks from now, the lack of walks could very well have corrected itself. We are sure that hitting coach Ty Van Burkleo is stressing patience at the plate, and it will come to fruition soon.

Instead of being aggressive at the plate, maybe the Indians need to be more selective. Drawing walks will start extending innings and will lead to putting crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

Tribe Looks To Be Waiting For July To Make Moves

With spring training starting in two weeks, it would be fair to say the Cleveland Indians have had a very quiet winter.

Sure, they’ve been in the news in terms of losing players, as Carlos Santana signed as a free agent with the Phillies, Bryan Shaw went to Colorado, Jay Bruce to the Mets, and Joe Smith departed for Houston.

The front office did sign Yander Alonso to replace Santana at first base, banking that Alonso’s power surge last year is sustainable.

After never reaching double figures in home runs during the first seven years of his career (his high was 9 in 2012 with San Diego), Alonso crushed 28 dingers in 2017.

He slugged .501 last season after never reaching the .400 mark during his career.

If changing the launch angle of his swing can be carried forward, then the Indians have Santana’s replacement, at least vs. right-handed pitching, against whom he had a 900 OPS a year ago.

President Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff obviously feel the platoon of Lonnie Chisenhall and Brandon Guyer or perhaps Yandy Diaz can handle rightfield, after all the Tribe was in first place before they dealt for Bruce.

In the bullpen, the organization is banking on Nick Goody to step up and hoping perhaps a non-roster invitee such as Alexi Ogando, Preston Claiborne, or Neil Ramirez can emerge like Jeff Manship, Ryan Webb, or Scott Atchison have in recent years.

We believe the Indians feel comfortable in their place in the division, after all they won the American League Central Division by 17 games a year ago, and will use the first three months of the 2018 season to see what they will need for the stretch drive.

This means the July 31st trading deadline will be more important to Cleveland than the off-season was.

Management is banking on a return to form from Jason Kipnis to boost the offense, and this is a solid move. The second baseman has had an OPS over 800 in three of the four years prior to last year’s injury plagued campaign.

If Kipnis has was is an average season for him (.268, 17 HR, 74 RBI, 762 OPS) that will add offense for Terry Francona.

Don’t forget Chisenhall was having an outstanding season before missing most of the last two months. The former first round pick was hitting .288, slugging .521, and had a career high OPS of 881.

We are unsure about replacing Austin Jackson, who had a rebirth in Cleveland (.318, 7 HR, 35 RBI, 869 OPS in 89 games) with Melvin Upton Jr., who didn’t play in the big league during 2017.

Upton does have a career 760 OPS vs. southpaws, but hasn’t hit over .250 in the bigs since 2008, and is prone to striking out.

As for the bullpen, we think Antonetti and Chernoff will do what they did in ’16 and see what relievers come available as the season progresses.

Remember, that’s how Andrew Miller came to the Tribe. If you can get a bullpen piece of that magnitude to go with Cody Allen and the big lefty, you will be well suited for an October run.

This strategy also will show what you have in players like Diaz, Upton, Kipnis, and Francisco Mejia and Triston McKenzie.

And who knows, another minor leaguer may emerge as a piece other teams will covet.

Remember, the Cleveland Indians didn’t squeak into the playoffs last year, they had the best record in the AL. Even a slight regression puts them in a great position going into 2018.