Tribe Gets Through August Challenge With Flying Colors.

The Cleveland Indians entered the month of August facing a stern test.

The schedule was full of post-season contenders, with home and home series with the Red Sox and Yankees, an 11 game trip to Tampa, Minneapolis, and Kansas City, and a couple of game vs. Colorado.

They started the month 10 games over .500, and they ended it 20 over the break even mark thanks to a 19-9 month.

What is more remarkable is Terry Francona’s squad had several important players missing time with injuries.

Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Andrew Miller all missed most of this important stretch of games with injuries.  And yet, the Tribe rolled on.

They did it first and foremost with incredible pitching, mostly from the starting rotation.

After allowing 12 runs to the Red Sox on August 1st, in what should be the Major League Baseball game of the year, gave up more than four runs in a game just five times the rest of the month.

Three of those games came consecutively in home series vs. Boston, and Cleveland won the last of those games, a 13-6 win over Sox ace Chris Sale, a day after the Tribe went through a two game stretch where the offense couldn’t buy a hit.

The staff had a streak of 30 straight scoreless innings, which ironically ended with ace Corey Kluber on the mound.

Despite all the injuries, the offense pitched in too, scoring five or more runs in half of the 28 games.

The hitting was revitalized with the addition of Jay Bruce, acquired from the Mets.  Upon arrival, Bruce hit in his first 11 starts, contributing four home runs and 13 runs batted in.

The injuries to Brantley and Chisenhall necessitated the deal, and give the front office and ownership a gold star for seeing the club needed a boost.

Depth in the farm system paid dividends with Giovanny Urshela, Erik Gonzalez, and Yandy Diaz contributing to the Indians’ success.

Among the position players, these are the standouts–

Carlos Santana:  997 OPS, 7 HR, 15 RBI
Edwin Encarnacion:  Batted just .220 for the month, but belted 10 homers
Francisco Lindor:  9 HR, 17 RBI
Diaz:  8 for 20, 5 RBI

Pitching wise, there are more exceptional statistics–

Kluber:  5-1, 1.96 ERA, .146 batting average against
Trevor Bauer:  5-0, 2.31 ERA, 44 strikeouts in 39 innings
Ryan Merritt:  2-0, 1.15 ERA
Joe Smith:  9 appearances, 8 of them scoreless
Tyler Olson:  8-2/3 scoreless innings

What does this period of great play mean for Francona’s club?

When Brantley, Chisenhall, and Kipnis come back, it could be a lethal batting order, one that has Chisenhall and maybe Santana hitting as low as seven and eight in the lineup.

It also buys more time for Miller to rest his knee.  It wouldn’t bother me if the lefty wasn’t held out until September 15th, giving him two weeks to get ready for what seems like an inevitable post-season berth.

Same with Brantley.  He hasn’t started baseball activities yet, but as long as he can get two weeks of play under his belt, he should be ready for the playoffs.

Will this mean another World Series berth for the Indians?  We can’t say that, baseball is not that kind of sport.  However, as usual, a Terry Francona led team is playing better ball in the second half of the season.

They passed their toughest test of the season with ease, and the magic number (right now 24) countdown can start right now.

MW

 

 

 

Who Plays Second For A Few Weeks?

A few days ago, the Cleveland Indians announced 2B Jason Kipnis was about 4-5 weeks away from returning to the lineup.

First off, many people went crazy thinking Kipnis wasn’t going to be able to do anything for 4-5 weeks, meaning his return to the lineup would be about two months away.  Apparently, those people didn’t read correctly.

However, it does mean that the second baseman will miss most, if not all, of the first month of the season, so Terry Francona has to find someone to partner with Francisco Lindor as the team’s keystone combination.

It is not a coincidence that when the amount of time became specified by the Cleveland training staff, we started seeing Jose Ramirez playing in place of Kipnis.

Our guess is if Kipnis was going to miss a couple of weeks of the regular season, Francona would have went with a mixture of Michael Martinez and Erik Gonzalez at second, and left Ramirez at the hot corner, where he played so well in the second half of 2016.

But when it appeared to be a full month, he felt it necessary to move Ramirez back to his natural position, and use find someone else to play third.

In his heart of hearts, Tito probably knows Ramirez is stronger defensively than Kipnis, and a double play combination of Lindor and Ramirez could be among the best in the league.

What to do at 3B?  The primary candidates are Giovanny Urshela who is very good with the glove, but his hitting is questionable because he doesn’t handle the strike zone.

Then you have Yandy Diaz, who looks to be ready with the bat, hitting over .300 combined at Akron and Columbus last year.  The brass seems to be very concerned about his glove, although the defensive metrics show he is solid at third.

A dark horse would be Richie Shaffer, who spent the winter bouncing from team to team, but has made some changes in his swing and approach which has caused his power to spike.

Both Diaz and Shaffer would have to be added to the 40 man roster.

Urshela would be the safe pick, but remember the Indians are in a different situation than in the past.  They are the defending American League champions, they aren’t a contending team anymore, so they should be making decisions to win right now.

We have heard people say Diaz shouldn’t get the nod because they don’t want his service time to be an issue.

This was an issue in 2015 with Francisco Lindor, but the Indians weren’t the top dog in the league at that time.  Of course, the failure to bring him up sooner than June 14th may have cost the Tribe a spot in the playoffs.

But Diaz is 25 (Lindor was 21), so when he does become eligible for free agency, he will be 32 years old, past his prime years.

Our belief is to go with the offense, which means giving Diaz the job.  If you have the lead after six innings, then go to Gonzalez or Martinez, whoever wins the utility man job, for defense.

It’s great news that Kipnis should only miss a month, but they have some options to fill in for him until he’s ready to go.

MW

Tribe Injuries Cause Fans Angst

With the Cleveland Indians winning the American League championship in 2016, expectations in northeast Ohio are as high as can be.

With these expectations come the worry that sports fans in this area are famous for.  That angst popped up for Tribe fans at the end of last week when both 2B Jason Kipnis and starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco were reported to be injured.

Kipnis is dealing with pain in his shoulder area and will sit for two weeks before trying to play again.  Skipper Terry Francona said this will put Kipnis on the disabled list for the season opener in Texas.

Compounding the concern on Kipnis is Michael Brantley’s injury.  Brantley suffered a torn labrum diving for a flyball in September 2015, and missed virtually all of 2016 with the problem and later developed tricep tendonitis.

So, of course, since Brantley missed most of last year, fans and media alike extrapolate that Kipnis will miss a significant amount of time.

Now, we don’t know the Kipnis’ ailment is minor, but Francona did say Kipnis could DH right now, and could play second too, but the team is taking a precaution.  Obviously, it is better for Kipnis to miss the first couple of weeks of the regular season rather than miss a month later.

What is puzzling is the Tribe’s solution to the problem.  To most, the obvious move is to put Jose Ramirez back to his natural position, and use someone else (Giovanny Urshela, Yandy Diaz, etc.) at the hot corner.

However, it seems Tito wants to keep Ramirez at third, and play a combination of Erik Gonzalez, Michael Martinez and others at second.

We understand Francona loves Martinez and values his glove, but the guy is arguably the worst hitter in the majors (his career OPS is 507), so you can’t put him in the lineup on a regular basis.

We would love to see Diaz get the first shot.  He’s been a .300 hitter in the minors (854 OPS in ’16) and reports out of Goodyear say he seems like he’s one of those guys who could fall out of bad and hit a line drive.

Urshela has a very good glove, but didn’t hit (608 OPS) in his brief shot in 2015.  However, he was called up before spending a full season in AAA, and remember, he wasn’t regarded as a top ten prospect in the organization.

Carrasco’s elbow showed some swelling after a lackluster start on Wednesday, and Francona said he will miss a start.

If he has to miss some time, Mike Clevinger should be the choice to replace him, although in the beginning of the year with off days, his absence could be minimized.

Clevinger started some games a year ago, and made the post-season roster, and the front office has slotted him for the “sixth” starter role anyway.  It just may be those spot starts come in April instead of the middle of summer.

Carrasco’s elbow didn’t show any structural damage, so hopefully it’s just some inflammation and he will be fine with some rest.

While no team wants injuries, and the Indians are no exception, having players miss some time early in the year, when the schedule has some off days, is better than being out later in the year, as the Indians found out when Carrasco and Danny Salazar missed time in the playoffs.

Fans should try to relax a little and hopefully the injuries to Kipnis and Carrasco won’t result in a lot of time being missed.

Remember though, the Indians overcame Brantley’s injury a year ago to win the AL Central Division, and the starting rotation’s hurts didn’t stop them from making the World Series.

MW

 

 

Baseball Is Back Today!

In many respects, it seems like Game 7 of the World Series was just yesterday, and in others, it feels like an eon ago.

But today is the first exhibition game in Goodyear, Arizona for the Cleveland Indians, as they take on the team they share their complex with, the Cincinnati Reds.

It is our first opportunity to see Edwin Encarnacion in a Tribe uniform, and we also get to see the heroes of a year ago:  Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis, Andrew Miller, and the Tribe’s resident superstar, Francisco Lindor.

For the most part, the opening day is pretty much set, with Terry Francona looking for one more reliever to fill out the bullpen, and he’s also looking for who will be the utility man, and Tito has mentioned that spot is up for grabs between Michael Martinez, Erik Gonzales, and Ronnie Rodriguez.

We would also assume that Michael Brantley will not open the year on the active roster, so there is probably an extra outfield spot open too.

With the Indians being the defending American League champions, the main thing to focus on this spring is the organizational depth.

To win a division, you know you will need more than 25 men contributing to the cause, so the main players to keep an eye on are the guys who will open the season in Columbus, but will probably be called upon by Francona at some point to contribute during the regular season.

So, the players we want to watch are Yandy Diaz, the 25 year old who hit .318 with a 854 OPS between Akron and Columbus a year ago, and who can play 3B and the corner outfield spots.

Watch Gonzalez, also 25 and who has a sterling reputation as a defender, but who is blocked in Cleveland by the presence of Lindor.  Gonzalez hit .296 with a 779 OPS at AAA last season, and could be the bait at the trading deadline to bring a piece that Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff need for the stretch run.

We are also interested in seeing the depth in the starting rotation this spring.  You know the Indians will need more than five starters throughout the regular season, so we want to watch Mike Clevinger, Cody Anderson, Carlos Frias, and Tim Conroy perform throughout the spring.

Those guys will be counted on to make starts for the big club this summer, and they will be needed to win games.

Same with the pitchers making up the bullpen depth.  Francona and Mickey Callaway will need Shawn Armstrong (if he doesn’t make the team), Perci Garner, Joe Colon, and Nick Goody during the long regular season.

Luckily, the Indians have this depth, another example of the great job done by Antonetti and Chernoff.

One player we haven’t mentioned is C Francisco Mejia, who is widely regarding as the organization’s best prospect, and whom Francona has already said can be an impact hitter.

We also will be watching two outfielders who could be in Cleveland before the end of the season in CF Greg Allen and Bradley Zimmer.  Both of these guys could be playing big roles in Progressive Field if they have good starts in AAA.

Enjoy the fact that baseball is back, but look at the future for this organization.  The present looks very solid already.

MW

 

Tribe Thinking Like A Contender, As They Should

Today, the Cleveland Indians will announce the signing of free agent 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion to the largest contract in club history.

We have all been waiting for the official signing because the news has been out there since the weekend before Christmas, and the Tribe fans have been excited about the move for two weeks.

And the contract has paid immediate dividends as even more season ticket packages were sold after the announcement that Encarnacion, arguably the most consistent slugger in the game over the last five years, was joining the team.

Thus, a new era for the Indians is here.  They are legitimate contenders to win a World Series.  That’s what happens when you get to the seventh game of the Fall Classic the prior year.

Unlike the last times the Indians made the post-season, in 2007 and 2013, they haven’t stood pat.  They improved the ballclub.  Make no mistake, no matter how important Mike Napoli was to the 2016 Tribe, Edwin Encarnacion is a better hitter.  No question about it.

With the departure of Rajai Davis as a free agent, the current outfield set up looks to be a platoon of Tyler Naquin and Abraham Almonte in centerfield, another platoon of Lonnie Chisenhall and Brandon Guyer in rightfield, and hopefully Michael Brantley in left.

However, until we see Brantley swing the bat effectively in spring training, there is a lingering doubt that he can return to the form he exhibited in 2014 and 2015.

If he can, the Tribe offense should be even better than it was last year, and remember, they ranked second in the AL in runs scored last season.

What if Brantley isn’t ready or he is not as effective as in the past, what can the Indians do?

When you are a contender, you can’t rely totally on rookies.  They may be able to do the job ultimately, but you need to have a backup plan.

Preferably, they would sign another veteran bat who could play in left if Brantley isn’t healthy and may be able to slide over to centerfield if Naquin’s end of the year struggles continue into 2017.

We like several young players currently in the Cleveland farm system, particularly Yandy Diaz, who can play the outfield and 3B, and Bradley Zimmer or Greg Allen, both of whom could be candidates to play CF before the end of 2017.

However, it is tough to depend on rookies when you are chasing a ring.  You have to have a backup plan if they don’t hit or need more experience.

Which is why it seems at times that Terry Francona would rather go with a veteran.  When your expectation is winning the division there is no time to go through the growing pains of a rookie.

In our opinion, that’s why we would rather start the year with a rookie and if the player isn’t working out, you have the veteran in reserve.  However, neither Diaz, Zimmer, or Allen have any major league experience and none of the three have spent an entire year in AAA, although Diaz spent most of ’16 there.

Another alternative would be moving Jose Ramirez to LF and look at using Giovanny Urshela at third.

We have confidence the Tribe front office will bring in a low risk, high reward veteran outfielder as insurance for Brantley.

It’s part of the new philosophy at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.  The philosophy of a team trying to bring a title to Cleveland.

KM

 

Tribe Has More in Minors Than Zimmer, Frazier

With the Indians in first place and a 7-1/2 game lead in the American League Central Division, most baseball fans in the area are thinking about how the front office will fortify the ballclub for the home stretch.

The trade deadline (without having to clear waivers) is at the end of the month, and we feel one of the lazier topics on sports talk radio is talking about should the Tribe move one of their top two prospects, OF Bradley Zimmer and/or OF Clint Frazier, both first round draft picks, to upgrade the major league roster.

The reality is the Cleveland farm system isn’t what it was two or three years ago when it was kind of Francisco Lindor and a bunch of guys.  The Indians’ farm system is quite deep these days, thank you.

There are prospects that should be appealing at every level of the minor league system, and it is quite possible, probable in fact, that it will be one of these guys who will be moved if the front office makes a splash by the end of the month.

At Columbus, there is RHP starter Mike Clevinger (9-1, 2.82 ERA, 88 strikeouts in 82 IP), who we have already seen at the big league level.  The right-hander is 25 years old, and really is ready for the big leagues now.

In addition to Clevinger on the hill, there is also a pair of lefties, Ryan Merritt (5-7, 4.44 ERA) and Shawn Morimando (11-4 at AAA/AA).  Both have made cameos with the big club this season.

And you can’t forget 3B/OF Yandy Diaz, a native of Cuba, who is currently raking at AAA (.326, 4 HR, 22 RBI, 873 OPS).  Diaz played in the Futures Game, and is a guy who puts the bat on the ball, something rare in this era where strikeouts don’t matter.

Besides Zimmer and Frazier at Akron, you have 1B Nellie Rodriguez, who has belted 18 HR, but strikes out a ton (132 whiffs in 348 at bats), and a pair of pitchers, lefty Rob Kaminsky (4-6, 3.84 ERA), and righty Julian Merryweather, who is 2-2 with the RubberDucks after going 8-2 with a 1.03 ERA at Class A Lynchburg.

Merryweather’s former teammates include 20-year-old slugger Bobby Bradley (.265, 17 HR, 70 RBI after hammering 27 bombs at Lake County a year ago), and catcher Francisco Mejia, who has hit over .330 at two levels this season.  Those two get the most ink.

However, you can’t forget 20-year-old switch hitting OF Anthony Santander (.285, 14 HR, 69 RBI, 838 OPS) and 23-year-old Greg Allen (.298, 3 HR, 27 RBI, 37 steals), another who hits from both sides of the plate.

At Lake County, you will find OF Connor Marabell (.308, 6 HR, 47 RBI, 835 OPS) and Nathan Lukes (.305, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 833 OPS. And you can mix in RHP Matt Esparza (8-6, 3.19 ERA, and 107 strikeouts in 96 innings).

Mahoning Valley has two high school hurlers picked early in last year’s draft, RHP Triston McKenzie (3-2, 0.48 ERA in 37 IP) and southpaw Juan Hillman (2-0, 0.89 ERA in 30 frames).

And at the rookie level, you have the comeback story (from Tommy John surgery) of last year’s top selection Brady Aiken, once the top overall pick in the draft.

We haven’t even mentioned the bullpen depth in the system either.  Other teams covets arms like Ben Heller, David Speer, and Billy Strode.

If GM Mike Chernoff does make a move, and we believe he will, it is more likely one of the players we’ve talked about here will go in return, not Zimmer or Frazier.

While the system is deeper than in the past, you can’t move players like those two, with the potential to be special.

MW