Tribe Offense Needs A Boost Too.

With a recent surge last week, the Cleveland Indians moved up greatly in the offensive statistics for the American League.

After scoring more than 10 runs in three consecutive contests last week, they moved from near the bottom of the AL in scoring per game to 7th, where they are right now.

Still, it seems like the offense has sputtered more often than not. The Tribe has scored three runs or less in 13 of their 34 games, which is slightly over 38% of the time.

When the Indians do score, they tally more frequently in the 8th inning (12 games) and next would be the 1st and the 4th innings (11 times), when the top of the order would most frequently hit.

One of the problems with the Tribe offense is right now it is filled with players who aren’t near the league average in OPS.

We consider above offensive players in baseball to be able to have an on base percentage of over .350 and a slugging percentage of over .450, which would be an OPS of 800 or more.

Outside of seldom used Erik Gonzalez (983 OPS in just 29 at bats), Terry Francona can only write three names in his lineup that meet that criteria: Jose Ramirez (376/562/937), Michael Brantley (350/521/871), and Francisco Lindor (350/517/867).

The only other Cleveland player with significant at bats and an on base average over .350 is Tyler Naquin at .356, and that is more the result of a .316 batting average. He has only walked three times in 73 plate appearances.

As for slugging over .450? The only Tribesman doing that other than the previously mentioned trio is Yan Gomes at .451.

Those five players are the only Indians having OPS better than the league average of 732.

This means most rallies usually end because guys having below average offensive seasons thus far come up and make outs.

Edwin Encarnacion has a strikeout to walk ratio of 4:1 (40 Ks/10 BB). Yonder Alonso has a career walk rate of 9.5%, this season, he is at 7.7%, meaning he is making outs more frequently.

The former should improve those numbers as the weather gets warmer, and the latter should correct itself as the season goes as well.

A growing problem is continuing to use Jason Kipnis in the #2 hole, breaking up the team’s three hottest hitters at leadoff (Lindor), #3 (Ramirez), and in the cleanup spot (Brantley).

Kipnis has hit is some tough luck, but he has an on base percentage of .252 and has just a .272 slugging percentage.

The other problem spot is CF. Bradley Zimmer has played very good defense, but his OPS is just 645, and since he’s only getting on base at a 29.4% rate, he can’t use his great speed.

Neither can the other option, Rajai Davis, who has an OBP (.262), greater than his slugging percentage of .250.

It is going to difficult to continue to justify Davis’ roster spot with that kind of production. And remember, Melky Cabrera could be up here soon.

And we said earlier this year that we would not be surprised if Zimmer was sent back to AAA to get more seasoning at some point.

If the offense is going to get going, they are going to need more than three to five players contributing to the attack.

However, until then, a change in the batting order is needed. Why not try Ramirez at the top, followed by Brantley and Lindor, then Encarnacion and Alonso?

Drop Kipnis down until he gets it going.

Really though, players just have to start hitting. It may be just that simple.

Looking At The Tribe’s Catching

The Cleveland Indians’ best prospect, and quite frankly, one of baseball’s best prospects is catcher Francisco Mejia.

Because of his presence at Class AAA Columbus, it seems like every time either Yan Gomes or Roberto Perez have a few hitless games in a row, fans are yelling for Mejia to be called up and inserted into the lineup.

Those people do not understand what the Tribe organization values in a catcher, nor do they realize Gomes and Perez aren’t the offensive zeroes they are viewed as.

If you understand baseball at all, you would know the Indians value defense first behind the plate, and that includes pitch framing and handling one of the premier pitching staffs in the sport.

We feel Perez is the better player and should get a higher percentage of the playing time, but the way Terry Francona handles the duo keeps them fresh at a very physically taxing position.

Last season, Gomes had the higher OPS at 708 (Perez was 664), but the pair combined for 22 HR and 94 RBI, not bad for two guys who combined to hit under .230 combined.

We like Perez better because he has a better eye at the plate. Even though he strikes out a lot (71 Ks in 217 at bats), he also works counts better and walked 26 times, five less than Gomes, even though the latter had 135 more plate appearances.

Perez also guided Indians’ pitchers to a better ERA at 3.22, compared to Gomes’ 3.36, both excellent figures.

Both catchers are excellent against the running game, throwing out over 40% of the runners trying to steal against Cleveland pitchers.

Both are also very good in blocking pitches, as the duo had just 9 passed balls last season, and the team ranked second to Boston in the fewest number of wild pitches.

Watching Tribe games makes you appreciate Gomes and Perez when you see Cleveland baserunners advance on pitches in the dirt.

By the way, this season, Tribe catchers have combined for 3 HR and 6 RBI, and both hit game winning home runs this week.

Getting back to Mejia, quite frankly we do not want him to continue catching anyway. He’s not a big guy at 5’10” and 180 pounds, and most scouts feel his bat is elite. Why subject him to the wear and tear that the position takes on these guys.

Outside of his season at Lake County as a 19 year old, where he hit .243 with 9 homers, the lowest batting average the switch-hitter has had was .282 when he was 18 at Mahoning Valley.

He doesn’t strike out a lot, and the front office sees his value as a hitter, because they are investigating a position change for the youngster, who won’t turn 23 until after the season ends.

Even if they weren’t thinking about moving Mejia from behind the plate, the way the organization thinks about the spot would keep him in the minors. He’s not ready to handle a big league pitching staff, especially one as accomplished as the Tribe’s, just yet.

And don’t forget Eric Haase, just 25 years old, who emerged last year in Akron to hit 27 dingers. He’s also at Columbus this season.

The Indians don’t have a guy who is going to start behind the plate for the American League in the All Star Game, but they are very happy with the quality they have at the position.

As for Mejia, he could wind up joining with Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez to form a switch hitting middle of the order which would be the envy of baseball.

Things To Keep An Eye On For Tribe After A Week.

The Cleveland Indians will be home tomorrow afternoon for their home opener, weather permitting. It will be cold, but it will still be warmer than the Tribe bats were on the first trip on the season, as Terry Francona’s crew lost four of six to Seattle and Los Angeles.

To those who are prone to panic at this about the Indians, it is just six games, and we don’t start evaluating the team until 27 games, or 1/6th of the season is played.

However, that doesn’t mean some of the things we were concerned about as the off-season unfolded, and during spring training haven’t raised their ugly heads.

The old saying that you don’t realize what you have until it’s gone certainly applies to Bryan Shaw. Yes, the right-hander had some hiccups, and seemed to give up more than his share of key gopher balls, but for the most part, he was very reliable.

The bullpen misses him.

In two of the four Cleveland losses, the relief corps gave up tie breaking home runs, one by Dan Otero, and the other by the pitcher who has a history of allowing long balls in high leverage situations, Zack McAllister.

In addition, last Sunday after Otero allowed the tie breaker, Tyler Olson allowed another two run shot, meaning the ‘pen has already allowed four homers in six games (McAllister served up another in the blowout on Tuesday).

We are not concerned about the production from the top of the batting order because Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, and Jose Ramirez have established track records, and they will hit.

And it appears that Michael Brantley will be activated for the home opener, and if he can stay healthy, it will give the lineup another solid bat.

We can be a little worried about Bradley Zimmer though. It’s not the centerfielder’s .143 batting average (3 for 21) that is a concern. Heck, a 3 for 3 day on Friday would bring him to .250.

It’s the lack of contact which is worrying. The second year major leaguer has struck out in 11 of those 21 at bats, an alarming rate, and completelybo unacceptable for someone who can run like Zimmer.

Zimmer should be trying to bunt for hits two or three times per week, taking advantage of his speed, and helping him to make contact. We would also add that he hasn’t drawn a walk through six games either.

In addition to Zimmer’s strikeout woes, Yan Gomes is having them as well, fanning in eight of 14 at bats. The catcher has struggling with strike zone judgment before after winning a Silver Slugger Award in 2014.

In ’15, his strikeout to walk ratio was was 104:13, the following year, it was 69:9. Last season, it improved a bit to 99:31, and so did the rest of his offensive numbers.

A patient Gomes is a more productive Gomes. He has to understand this and have some degree of plate discipline.

This duo must be better for the Tribe to have a lineup with some length.

If we didn’t already have questions about these players coming into the season, we wouldn’t have them now. The season has a long, long way to go, and numbers are particularly volatile now.

But these were question marks coming in. It doesn’t make a question the long term future for the Indians, but they are things to keep an eye on.

A baseball man once said you should ignore what you see in April and September. For Zack McAllister, Bradley Zimmer, and Yan Gomes, we hope he was right.

More Tribe Decisions: Kipnis, Gomes, Shaw.

Last week, we wrote about the dilemma the Cleveland Indians have surrounding the club option they hold on Michael Brantley, and the free agency of Carlos Santana and Jay Bruce.

There are also other decisions that need to be made regarding the make up of next year’s roster for the Tribe.

The first involves longtime Indian Jason Kipnis. Kipnis is scheduled to take a huge jump in pay in 2018, a $4.5 million raise, and he’s coming off an injury plagued poor season, hitting just .232 (705 OPS) with 12 home runs last season.

It appears by their actions at the end of the season that Kipnis no longer is the Indians’ second baseman either. When the veteran returned from a hamstring issue in September, he moved to centerfield, with Jose Ramirez staying at second.

So, with Bradley Zimmer seemingly the incumbent in center, and a likely platoon (if Bruce doesn’t return) in rightfield of Lonnie Chisenhall and Brandon Guyer, if Brantley does return in ’18, where does that leave Kipnis?

Many have speculated that Kipnis will be dealt, but with the off year in ’17, a deal this winter will not bring the return the club would receive with a bounce-back season next summer.

So, it looks right now like the front office will be forced to choose between Brantley and Kipnis. Certainly not what they thought when the two signed contract extensions prior to the 2014 season.

The third player inked at that time and identified as a core piece was catcher Yan Gomes.

Gomes had a stellar ’14 season, hitting .278 (785 OPS) with 21 homers and winning the Silver Slugger Award.

Since then, it’s been all downhill. Injuries haunted the catcher in 2015 and 2016, with his offense all but disappearing in the latter year (.167 batting average, 527 OPS).

He rebounded a bit last season (.232, 14 HR, 56 RBI), but seemed to lose playing time down the stretch to Roberto Perez, a better pitch framer.

Gomes is still a very good defensive catcher with a plus arm, and could be a significant trade chip to a team looking for stability at the catching position.

If the organization wants to give Perez the bulk of the playing time going forward, Gomes could be a player who can bring something very valuable in return. We believe that will be the direction the front office is going in.

Bryan Shaw is also a free agent this off-season. For all the back and forth between his fans and critics, Shaw is durable and dependable, leading the AL in appearances three of the last four years.

With the bullpen craze the sport has seen in recent years, Shaw is going to get paid.

We would be interested in keeping him at a reasonable deal, but we feel another team is going to make him an unbelievable offer.

And with the wear and tear on the right-hander’s arm, it’s a risk to sign him long term.

Our fear is Shaw could follow the same career path as Scott Linebrink, who appeared in 70+ games from 2004-08 with San Diego and Milwaukee. The veteran went to the White Sox in 2009 and never had the same effectiveness, and was out of baseball at age 35.

Again, as a non-large market team, the Indians can’t afford to be paying a lot of money to someone who cannot contribute to the major league team.

With the World Series ending this week, these decisions will have to be made as early as this weekend.

Coming off an 102 win season and a division title, the Tribe front office has some tough calls to make.

The Mejia Question For Tribe.

The All Star break is over, and now the eyes of baseball shifts to the trading deadline at the end of this month.

And that leads to speculation about the Indians’ top prospects, catcher Francisco Mejia and pitcher Triston McKenzie.

Mejia gets even more scrutiny because of the offensive production on the catchers on the big league roster, Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez.

Gomes has an OPS of 680, and is hitting just .222 with a .315 on base percentage. Perez is even worse with a 517 OPS and his batting average is just .178. Combined, the two backstops have 6 HR and 36 RBI.

Mejia has all the look of a professional hitter. A switch-hitter, he is hitting .334 with 9 HR and 34 RBI at AA Akron, and has a 928 OPS. This following a season where he had a 50 game hitting streak, and combined at Class A Lynchburg and Akron, he hit .342 with 11 homers and 80 runs batted in.

He also doesn’t strike out, which is huge in today’s game where swinging and missing is plentiful. His high in whiffs is 78 in 446 at bats, and that was during his worst year in the minors, when he hit .243 at Lake County in 2015.

One thing we know, or should know, about the Tribe front office is they value defense, pitch framing, and handling a pitching staff the most from their catchers. If they can hit, that’s great, but they don’t seem to be in a hurry to replace Gomes or Perez behind the plate, because they do those other things very well.

Baseball Prospectus ranked Mejia as the third best prospect in the game, and said they would rank him first if they knew the Dominican native was going to remain behind the plate long term.

The reason for that is Mejia’s size, he’s 5’10” and weighs 180 pounds. By contrast, Gomes is 6’2″, 215, and Perez is 5’11”, but weighs 220 pounds.

Ivan Rodriguez, who will be inducted into Cooperstown later this month, was only 5’9″, but weighed 205 pounds, so Mejia can get a little bigger and be a catcher for a long time in the big leagues.

On the other hand, Mejia looks like the kind of hitter that is special, and do the Indians want that bat to be subject to the daily grind and pounding a catcher takes, and perhaps shorten his career.

Look at Joe Mauer, who is much bigger than Mejia, but was an elite hitter as a catcher, with an OPS over 800 nine times in his first ten full seasons, and a winner of three batting titles.

He was basically done as a premier hitter at age 30 in 2013.

Do the Indians want to subject Mejia to that pounding or perhaps move him to another position and keep a possibly elite bat in their lineup for a long time.

Obviously, the Tribe front office would rather not deal Mejia, but they may have to if they are making a deal like the one that brought them Andrew Miller last year. In fact, remember he was involved in the ill-fated deal with Milwaukee that Jonathan Lucroy vetoed.

By the end of the month, we will see if the Indians dodged a bullet with that move, or they don’t think Mejia can become the type of catcher they would be comfortable with defensively.

He is purported to have a great arm and gets out of his crouch quickly, so we would be talking about pitch framing and handling the hurlers.

When you understand what Cleveland wants from the position, you can understand why Mejia is not in the Indians’ plans for this season.

Is he is their plans long term? We will find out in a couple of weeks.

Tribe Won’t Do This, But We Would

The Cleveland Indians should be considered a conservative organization, although at times they do make some aggressive moves.

They may have cost themselves a playoff spot in 2015 with their stubbornness in leaving Francisco Lindor in the minor leagues until his service time would not be an issue.

They give some veterans every opportunity to succeed before replacing them with a possibly more productive young player. Think about the long rope vets like Michael Bourn and Juan Uribe received from the current regime.

That said, here are some things we would like to see the Indians do, even though we know it will never happen:

A change in position for Jason Kipnis. Kipnis was an outfielder in college and moved to second base when he was drafted. However, it is pretty clear to us that Kipnis is the third best defensive option at the position for the Tribe, behind Jose Ramirez and Erik Gonzalez.

The Indians leave outs on the field more than they should because of plays not made up the middle or double plays not turned.

We understand Kipnis is a key member of the team both on the field and in the clubhouse. The simplest thing would be to just flip flop Ramirez and Kipnis and move the latter to 3B.

In these days, where offense continues to put up numbers, outs are at a premium, you can’t give them away.

The Brantley Dilemma. Michael Brantley’s return to the everyday lineup is a boon for Terry Francona, with an OPS of over 800 on the season.

However, it is evident that his defense in left field has slipped greatly. Sunday night, a groundball single went for a double for Jose Iglesias because he couldn’t cut the ball off.

There have been other deep flyballs which haven’t been caught either throughout the season.

Where can Brantley go? Perhaps first base if Carlos Santana goes elsewhere via free agency after the season, but if Santana resigns, Francona may want to consider a defensive replacement in the late innings.

Swap Gomes and Perez. The Indians are blessed with two very good defensive catchers who can handle (frame) pitchers. And we understand Roberto Perez is hitting just .178 with a 517 OPS, compared to Gomes’ 680 OPS.

However, Gomes hasn’t really been an effective hitter since winning a Silver Slugger Award in 2014. And with men on base, Gomes becomes very impatient at the plate.

We would like to see what Perez would do offensively if he were given the bulk of the playing time. Our gut feeling is he would hit better.

We would just like to find out, because in a year or two it will be a moot point (hopefully) because of Francisco Mejia.

Keep Mejia/McKenzie. In order to make a big move at the trade deadline, the Indians will have to trade one of the studs in their farm system. We would love to not give up either because as a small to mid market team, it is important to keep players like them.

Besides, the Indians have other players that would be desirable to other teams. Gonzalez is good enough defensively to start for several major league teams, and we would consider moving Bobby Bradley because we fear he could be like Texas’ Joey Gallo.

And don’t forget Yu-Cheng Chang is another shortstop blocked by Frankie Lindor.

The Tribe has a lot of depth in the system, we know it might be a fantasy, but we would like to keep these two after moving Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield last season.

Time For New Tribe Leaders To Emerge

It was not a good trip for the Cleveland Indians. They went 1-4 and had only one game where they scored more than three runs, and of course, that was their only win.

Terry Francona is questioning the “fight” in his ballclub, who seem a little full of themselves based on last year’s World Series appearance.

From appearances, it seems like there are a few players who want to make highlight plays, to get on MLB Network’s “Quick Pitch”, than making the right baseball play.

They seem to have guys trying to hit home runs and make spectacular defensive plays (like trying to flip a ball out of a glove), rather than do what is needed to win, which they did a year ago.

Reading between the lines, Francona bemoaned not having guys like Jason Giambi and Mike Napoli in the clubhouse, so what he was really saying is that he needs his veterans to step up and lead this current group of Indians.

Players like Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana, and Yan Gomes have been here since Francona arrived prior to the 2013 season, and they were exposed to Giambi and Napoli and how they helped police the locker room.

It’s time for those four or perhaps someone else to take what they learned from those veterans, and start taking charge of this group.

Perhaps it isn’t in their DNA to be vocal, but they may just have to get out of their comfort zone, because the 2017 Cleveland Indians seem to be in some kind of malaise that they can’t escape.

In the 57 games the Tribe has played this season, they have scored three runs or less in 28 of them, virtually half of the games. There is too much talent on the roster for that to happen every other night.

For example, in Wednesday’s game vs. Colorado, the plate umpire, Jim Wolf seemed to have a tight strike zone. Trevor Bauer walked five batters in less than four innings. However, Cleveland hitters didn’t draw one walk through the first six innings.

The patience the Indians had at the plate a year ago is now sporadic. Some days, they work the count very effectively, on others, they go to the plate like they have an early dinner reservation.

And that’s where the veterans have to stress having the same approach on an everyday basis. Mickey Callaway often talks about how the starting pitchers copy the work that ace Corey Kluber does on a daily basis.

It has to be every game, not just two out of three.

The front office made a statement in 2015 when they traded Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn to Atlanta, and it effect handed the team over to the young veteran core mentioned before.

But if Francona is still referencing Giambi and Napoli, then perhaps they aren’t preaching the grit and fight needed to win consistently.

If they can’t do it, then it may have to fall on the team’s best player, Francisco Lindor, to do it.

The point is, somebody in the locker room needs to step up and set a tone similar to what Napoli did last year. The Tribe may not get going until somebody does.

Does Tribe Need To Exercise More Patience With Injuries?

We were hoping against hope that Michael Brantley’s shoulder was fine when he was activated from the disabled list at the end of April.

Unfortunately, history was not on our side.

When Brantley came back, manager Terry Francona said the outfielder would play two days in a row, then get a day off. This course of action was followed until the Detroit series last week, when the skipper wrote Brantley’s name in the lineup four straight days and in five of the six games on the homestand.

It was after the plan was altered that soreness we appeared in Dr. Smooth’s shoulder, which resulted in putting him back on the disabled list yesterday.

Again, we were hoping that Brantley recovered sufficiently from his surgery to allow him to have a normal season, but recent history should have taught us something different.

In 2014, Jason Kipnis pulled an oblique muscle on April 29th. He was coming off his first All-Star Game appearance in 2013, and although his batting average wasn’t great at that time (.239) he had an OPS of 763, thanks to a .360 on base percentage.

The second baseman made it back to the lineup on May 28th, and struggled for the most part the rest of the season.

The highest his batting average hit the rest of the year was .261 (his career mark is .272) and he wound up hitting just .240, with 6 HR and 41 RBI. He knocked in his last run of the season on August 29th.

And yes, he did play regularly in September.

Yan Gomes was coming off a year where he won a Silver Slugger Award as the best hitting catcher in the American League when he injured his knee on April 11th.

Gomes was struggling at the plate to that point in the season, but the campaign was only five games old.

The catcher returned to the lineup on May 24th, didn’t hit a home run until his 10th game back, and wound up hitting just .231 for the season with 12 HR, a drop from 21 the year prior.

His numbers prior to the All Star Game were 234/327/560, while after the break, they were closer to his career norms at 289/435/725.

Were both players rushed back too soon?

First, we are sure both players said they were ready. We do not think the Indians’ front office and training staff pressured either Kipnis, Gomes, or Brantley to get back in the lineup.

All three are the team’s leaders, and probably feel obligated as leaders to get back on the field.

Since those players are keys to the Indians’ offense, having them out there at less than 100%, or let’s say 80% doesn’t allow them to hit like they normally do, and that creates even a bigger burden on the ballclub.

Wouldn’t it be better to have them take an extra two weeks to get even more rehab and more healthy before putting them right back in the starting lineup?

Let’s say the Tribe waited an extra couple of weeks with Brantley, had him get more at bats in minor league games and activated him on May 15th (today). Could he play the rest of the year like Michael Brantley? And wouldn’t the Indians be better off if he could?

We will never know, but it behooves the organization to get the leftfielder back to 100% when he does return, because his bat is so important to the team.

They say those who don’t learn from history are destined to repeat it. The Indians aren’t learning from the mistakes of the past.

If Tribe Is Done, They Didn’t Do Enough.

Earlier this week, Indians’ president Chris Antonetti announced the signing of free agent 1B/DH Mike Napoli to a one year contract, and then said the Tribe is pretty much done when it comes to adding talent this off-season.

Let’s hope he is being coy.

Because if the front office is finished with the roster for the 2016 season, they haven’t done enough to improve the offense.

Getting Napoli and Rajai Davis are okay moves, and in a vacuum, you can’t complain about either player, especially because they were both brought in on one year deals.

Cleveland was 11th in the American League in runs scored last season, and will be missing their best hitter, Michael Brantley, for at least the first six weeks of the season.

Yes, we know that Francisco Lindor will be with the team all season, and Yan Gomes, a Silver Slugger winner in 2014, will hopefully be healthy for the entire season.

That will help the offense without a doubt.

Still, the Tribe didn’t get the impact bat, they so desperately need. They have a lot of players who will be put in the middle of the order in Cleveland, but for good offensive teams, they would hit somewhere between 6th and 9th.

That can work, but it requires every hitter in the lineup to have a solid season. There can’t be more than one spot where you aren’t getting offense.

We feel they will be better offensively in 2016, but not enough to put the Indians in the 90+ win conversation they need to win the division and avoid the one and done wild card game.

There is no question they have the pitching to contend and stay in the race. They finished 2nd in the AL in ERA, and their top four rotation hurlers might be without peer in the league.

But without better hitting, the Indians are going to lose too many games, 2-1 and 3-2. Games where they get excellent starting pitching and waste it.

Why not do something about it?

In a sport without a salary cap, it is funny to hear discussions about the Indians and talk about a $90 million payroll ceiling. Let us remind you that it is a self imposed figure.

There is nothing to prevent the Dolans from spending more than that figure except their own economical restraints.

Right now, the market is flush with free agent outfielders, and Terry Francona would have to start Davis, Abraham Almonte, and Lonnie Chisenhall out there if the season started today.

The Indians may have played the market correctly, and may be able to get a quality outfielder at a lower year commitment, something that is preferable for a smaller market team.

There was talk yesterday that Justin Upton may take a one year deal with Texas. And you know there is nothing bad about a one year contract.

So, the price tag for guys like Yoenis Cespedes and Gerardo Parra may not be as high as originally thought, and the trade value of players like Marcell Ozuna and Carlos Gonzalez may also be coming down.

We hope the Indians can take advantage of this and go out and get another solid bat to help length the lineup.

We hope that Antonetti was just being coy with the media and his people are still working feverishly to upgrade the hitting.

The Cleveland Indians can’t waste another year of excellent pitching without making the playoffs.

That would be a shame.