Guardians Make Contact, But Don’t Walk

Last season, the Cleveland Guardians decided to zag when everyone else was zigging and embraced a philosophy of making more contact at the plate. They struck out the least times in the American League, and finished sixth in the league in runs scored per game.

This year, they are doing the same, but have dropped to 12th in the AL in scoring. Last year, they were 14th in home runs and in 2023 they are last.

Other teams have labeled them as pesky, but there is one thing we thought would improve this season, but really hasn’t. Last season, they were 11th in drawing walks and so far this season, they have dropped a spot and rank 12th.

So, while they make contact more than anyone else, they aren’t particularly adept at working counts and fouling off borderline pitches until they get something they can make solid contact with.

The team with the second least strikeouts in the AL is the Houston Astros. They rank 11th in walks drawn and are 8th in runs scored. They are 9th in homers.

Toronto fans the third least times and are one spot above Houston is terms of runs scored and walks, and is one spot behind them in round trippers.

For right now, it appears the contact approach isn’t doing teams any big favors, except for the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are second last in the National League in striking out and is 3rd in the league in runs scored.

Let us say here, we like the more contact approach, and we like the Guardians’ organizational philosophy of drafting and developing guys who make contact and teaching them to drive the ball in the minor leagues.

We also don’t have a problem with strikeouts if it comes with power and without a total disregard for knowledge of the strike zone. Minnesota leads the AL in whiffs, and they aren’t scoring many more runs than the Guardians.

Maybe better recognition of the strike zone comes with more experience and as the young Cleveland hitters mature, they will be able to work more walks. The only Guardian hitter with more walks than whiffs is Jose Ramirez, with 33 bases on balls and 29 punchouts.

Both Andres Gimenez (47 Ks, 15 BB) and Amed Rosario (60K, 19 BB) have strikeout to walk ratios of over three to one. And neither are what you would consider power bats. Myles Straw doesn’t have a home run since 2021 and has fanned 57 times with just 26 walks.

And Will Brennan doesn’t have the amount of at bats as the other three mentioned, but he has just six walks vs. 31 strikeouts. The four hitters listed have combined for 10 home runs.

We would like to see all three of these guys get on base more often by walking, and with their speed (see previous blog) they could be converting some of those walks into doubles by stealing bases.

Currently, Cleveland has no one ranking in the top ten in the AL in on base percentage, Ramirez leads the team at .360 and only Steven Kwan is among the leaders in walks, tied for 10th.

By the way, the Guardians have drawn four or more walks in 29 games this season. Their record is 18-11 in those games, averaging almost six runs per game. We understand that makes sense, because mediocre pitchers usually walk more batters.

Since the Guardians don’t have a lot of home run power, for their approach to work, it would seem they need more baserunners. And taking more walks would accomplish that goal.

Is Guardians’ Patience Being Rewarded?

It hit us watching the Cleveland Guardians’ scintillating 10-9 multiple comeback win over Houston Friday night that it appears the 2022 edition of the Guardians may have returned.

And if they have, it’s a reminder that no matter how patient we can be as fans, and by the way most fans are not, the front office has more of it, and most times it pays off.

Terry Francona’s squad trailed after four innings by a 5-1 count against Christian Javier, who gave into the game with a 7-1 record for the Astros.

Quite frankly, based on how the season has gone, we were ready to file this one in the loss column. But Cleveland scored three in the fifth to get back into the game behind contributions from Myles Straw, Amed Rosario, and Andres Gimenez, three players who have had rough starts to the campaign.

There was a report that Will Brennan was on the verge of being sent back to AAA as the Guards headed to Baltimore and Minnesota for a seven-game trip.

Since then, the young left-handed hitter has gone 20 for 44 with a couple of home runs, 8 RBIs, and eight multi-hit games, and had the game winning hit on Friday. This has given the bottom of the lineup, a kind of wasteland for the first two months of the year, a kick start.

Early in the week, fans were expressing concern for the star of the team, Jose Ramirez, who was mired in a two-week slump. Well, he’s out of it now, crushing four home runs Thursday and Friday (three in the former game) and raised his slugging percentage to .494 and his OPS to 842.

We bet many casual fans of the Guardians wouldn’t realize that despite the offensive struggles Cleveland has had this season that Josh Naylor ranks fifth in the American League with 48 ribbies.

The question now is whether or not the offense can be sustained for the rest of the season. We don’t mean scoring 10 runs every night, but not reverting to the performance of April and May, when the batting attack was well below league average.

If it can, it could have a bearing on how long Shane Bieber remains a Guardian. The rumors are out there, but it will be interesting to see what the front office will do as currently Cleveland is just 2.5 games off the AL Central lead.

Yes, we know the former Cy Young Award winner’s velocity is down, and his strikeout numbers are as well. He also gives the team six innings per start and his ERA is a respectable 3.57.

With Gavin Williams on the horizon, there is a though the front office could move the veteran from a position of strength, but remember, management also wants to keep on eye on the number of innings Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Williams will pitch this season, and Bieber can help with that.

Plus, he’s easily the starter with the most experience on the staff, and that can be a help down the stretch.

We do have an issue with some of the players we see people coveting for Bieber. Several of those guys are in A ball. The Guardians won 92 games a year ago, so they are not looking for someone who will help them in 2-3 years, at least not as the primary piece in a deal.

If they deal for a hitter, they want someone who can help right now. Also, remember the philosophy of the organization is contact. They want players who have good contact skills and then teach them to drive the ball.

The schedule isn’t getting easier, but the Guardians are starting to resemble the pesky squad that one the division title. Let’s hope that continues.

The Rosario Dilemma

Last season, Amed Rosario was a key cog in the Cleveland Guardians winning the American League Central Division championship.

He was third in the league in hits with 180 and led the AL in triples with nine. He was a big reason the Guardians’ offense put pressure on opposing defenses. Along with leadoff man Steven Kwan and #3 hole hitter Jose Ramirez, the Guards would go first to third relentlessly with three speedsters at the top of the lineup.

Rosario isn’t an on base machine, because he rarely walks, but he hit .283 and had a .312 on base percentage, so he was effective where he was at.

However, the shortstop’s value as an everyday player comes from his batting average because as we said, he doesn’t walk, and he really isn’t an extra base hit machine either.

For example, last year Rosario slugged .403 about the same as Kwan. What makes Kwan a better than average offensive player was his .373 on base average, about 60 points higher than the man who follows him to the plate most nights.

FYI, Kwan’s OBP has dipped this season to .342.

The three seasons Rosario had an OPS+ of over 100 (that’s average), his batting averages were .287 (2019), .282 (2021), and .283 (2022). If he’s not hitting at around the .275 level, he’s a poor offensive player. Right now, he’s at 65.

Now you make think that’s true for everyone, but it’s not. Currently, Josh Naylor has an OPS+ of 109 and he’s batting just .253. But Naylor walks a bit more and has 16 extra base hits, making his slugging percentage .437.

The right-handed hitter currently has the worst OPS+ among Cleveland regulars, yes worse than Myles Straw (77), Mike Zunino (73), and Will Brennan (82). Another disappointment for the Guardians is free agent signee Josh Bell, and he’s at 92.

Cleveland lives with Straw’s below average offense (for how much longer, we will see) because he’s an elite defensive centerfielder, a Gold Glove winner a year ago.

Rosario is a below average defender. He ranks last on the Guardians in defensive runs saved, just behind Zunino. You can probably make the argument that of the shortstops currently on the big league roster, including Andres Gimenez, who played the position in the minor leagues, he’s the worst defensively.

That list would include Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, and Brayan Rocchio, who has played a pair of games there.

So what gives?

We realize many people will use the argument that Rosario is a close friend of Jose Ramirez, who lobbied for a contract extension for him last season, but we refuse to believe that’s the reason, management keeps writing his name in the lineup.

We think it’s the usual patience vs. stubbornness we see from the organization all the time. They believe based on the past two seasons, Rosario will get hot any day now, and the team will reap the benefits.

But that’s the problem with hitters whose entire worth is based on batting average and another problem with players who don’t have an idea of the strike zone. Rosario’s strikeout to walk ratio for his career is 607:136, he’s never walked more than 31 times in a season.

His walk ratio is actually up this year (5.8% compared to his lifetime mark of 4.5%), but his strikeout rate (22.3%) is also higher (19.9%). Pitchers usually figure out they can get these guys out without throwing strikes, thus the effectiveness wanes.

We aren’t saying to “run away” from Rosario, as Francona likes to say. However, we are saying perhaps it’s time to see what Freeman and/or Arias can do with increased playing time.

That Rosario can be a free agent after this season, doesn’t help his argument.

Guardians Failing In All Aspects Right Now

The Cleveland Guardians are close to reaching the 1/3rd point of the season, so claims that it is “still early” are ringing hollow. Right now, there are more negatives about certain facets of the ballclub than positives.

The offense has been abysmal, ranking last in the American League in runs scored, behind even to woeful Oakland A’s, and a quarter run per game behind the next lowest squad the Detroit Tigers.

The league average OPS is 721 and the Guards have exactly one player above average, their perennial all-star Jose Ramirez. The players who rank behind Ramirez(804) are Steven Kwan (678) and Josh Naylor (670).

That is, of course, unless you count Tyler Freeman in his 20 plate appearances. Freeman sits at 771 in a very, very small sample size.

As a team the Guardians are last in OPS and slugging percentage and are 13th in on base percentage. It doesn’t take a genius to tell anyone that if you don’t get players on base and once they are on, you cannot move them, you are going to have a problem scoring runs.

They pride themselves on making contact, but too often they aren’t very patient at the plate. Last night, Will Brennan’s first plate appearance involved Cardinals’ pitcher John Flaherty making five pitches to get him out, and not one was a strike.

The pitching staff is respectable, ranking 7th in the AL in staff ERA, but the bullpen has been a big issue as of late, and the signs tell us Terry Francona is losing a bit of faith in his relief corps.

Last Sunday, he allowed Shane Bieber to go the distance in spite of having a jam in the bottom of the 8th inning. Bieber also stayed in perhaps one hitter too long Friday, walking an extra hitter, before Trevor Stephan came on.

Stephan had to be relieved in the bottom of the 8th after getting into trouble, but thankfully, Enyel De Los Santos got a double play grounder.

James Karinchak has walked 16 in just 21.1 innings. So, he can’t be used in a close game unless there is absolutely no other option.

Closer Emmanuel Clase leads the league in saves with 17, and also he’s not walking people (5 in 25 IP) and not giving up the long ball (just 1 HR allowed), his strikeouts are down (18) and the balls put in play are finding holes.

Cleveland relievers are giving up the long ball in bunches, and last weekend’s series in New York was a microcosm, as home runs allowed changed the course of two games.

There is an old baseball axiom the says, you show me a bad bullpen and I will show you a bad team.

The defense also hasn’t been up to par. Amed Rosario has messed up some routine plays and the wild pitch epidemic continues, the Guardians were 11th in this category a year ago, and sixth this year.

And in trying to create time for Gabriel Arias, he’s playing rightfield and let’s just say the inexperience shows every so often.

Also, because the hitters cannot get on base, Cleveland cannot use the running game. The Guardians had two stolen bases twelve times in their first 27 games. In the last 23 contests, they’ve done it just once.

Right now, the Guardians are lacking in every aspect of the game. Yet, they are still just 4.5 games out of the division lead. We are getting to the point in the season where patience and stubbornness is becoming one.

Looking For A Bounce Back From Straw

A year ago, the outfield for the Cleveland Guardians was largely unsettled. Myles Straw, who came over from Houston in ’21 was entrenched in centerfield, but the other two spots were up for grabs.

We would bet most people don’t remember Amed Rosario was the opening day leftfielder in Kansas City, and Steven Kwan played in right after a great spring training forced the front office’s hand.

Oscar Mercado was getting time against southpaws and Josh Naylor was still in the mix out there as well.

By seasons’ end, it was pretty set, as the Guards had two Gold Glove outfielders in Kwan and Straw, and Oscar Gonzalez was called up and secured right field and was a post-season hero.

Will Brennan parlayed a tremendous minor league season (.314, 13 HR, 107 RBI, 850 OPS) into a September call up and post-season roster spot.

Straw wound up being one of the most criticized players on the Cleveland roster, mainly because he had three months where he was dreadful with a bat in his hands. He hit .178 (508 OPS) in May, .149 (412) in June, and .093 (222) in August.

That last month probably was what got Brennan the big-league opportunity.

In those months where the bat was really struggling, he seemed to be pushing everything to the opposite field, rarely even pulling ground balls through the left side.

With his speed, we would still like him to add the bunt to his offensive repertoire, if only to make corner infielders pinch in at the corners and thus create more holes.

In total, Straw hit .221 (564 OPS) for the season without a home run, but his incredible defense kept him in the lineup, and makes him the incumbent coming into training camp.

However, we are forgetting that Straw has not been that poor of a hitter since he came to the bigs. He’s also not Willie Mays either.

After Straw came over from Houston, he played in 60 games with Cleveland and batted .285 with a .362 on base percentage, which explains why Terry Francona put him in the leadoff spot to start the 2022 season.

For the entire season, 156 games played, Straw batted .271 with a .349 OBP, hitting four homers and stealing 30 bases.

And in April, he kept up what he did to finish the season in ’21, hitting .291 and getting on base at a 38.7% clip. And he finished strong as well, a .364 on base average in September last season.

We felt all season that Straw just suffered through a bad season in 2022 and he will bounce back this year.

He may not get back to the numbers he had in 2021, but if he can get the average up to the .250 range and mix in 50 or so walks, he will get plenty of playing time.

Of course, what the other three outfielders do will help determine the amount of at bats Straw will get too. Remember, neither Kwan, Gonzalez, nor Brennan have much of a track record at the big-league level.

It plays well for Brennan that he is a left-handed hitter, so he can get some at bats vs. tough right-handers in place of either Straw or Gonzalez.

Although we are optimistic about the Guardians’ outfield in 2023, it is far from certain on any of the quartet, including Kwan, whose rookie season seemed magical. Pitchers will start attacking what they consider weaknesses, and it is up to him to adjust if the moundsmen have some success.

But we also expect a much better year from Myles Straw. We are sure he is looking forward to putting his performance in 2022 in the rear-view mirror.

If Guards Have A Bullpen Opening, Who Takes It?

Every year, Terry Francona gives a talk in spring training to the entire roster, the 40 man and the non-roster invitees. It has been reported (we say that only because we aren’t present) that he always discusses how everyone in the room will be counted on to have a successful season.

As we know, stuff happens every year. At the beginning of camp last year, could we have seen Oscar Gonzalez, Enyel De Los Santos, or Will Brennan being contributors?

Some of us thought Gonzalez could get a shot and that Steven Kwan deserved a shot, but enough of that.

Slumps happen, some players don’t put up the numbers they did in the past, and certainly, injuries always play a role.

Right now, the Guardians’ bullpen is in that state of flux because of injuries.

It was reported earlier in the week that southpaw Sam Hentges has some shoulder inflammation and is “week to week”, which doesn’t sound like he will be ready for Opening Day. That’s a big blow because the big lefty is the only proven piece that throws from the left side.

And De Los Santos and Nick Sandlin, both of whom figured to be in Seattle on March 30th, have not pitched in an exhibition game.

Now, bullpen guys can get ready faster than starting pitchers because they usually work just one inning at a time, so conceivably if they are ready to go by the middle of March, there is a good chance they will not miss any time.

To be fair, closer Emmanuel Clase hasn’t pitched in a game either.

Many people had another left-hander, Tim Herrin, making the 26 man roster to open the year, but with Hentges’ shoulder barking, he seems to be a lock to make the team.

Francona and pitching coach Carl Willis like to use their big-league relievers early in games to get a look at better hitters. On Friday, Herrin pitched the fourth inning.

If Herrin becomes a lock, and the Guards bring 13 pitchers north (or northwest since they open in Seattle), who gets the last spot?

If the staff wants someone who could pitch multiple innings, they could go with someone like Xzavion Curry or Hunter Gattis, both of whom were starters in the minors last season, and by the way, also made some big league starts, each getting a pair with Cleveland.

Both have faced high quality hitters in Arizona (visit Baseballreference.com) and have fared well. Gattis has fanned six in 4-1/3 frames, allowing just one hit, but three walks. Curry has a pair of two inning outings, allowing five hits, but just one run.

Or they could go with Konnor Pilkington who did make 11 starts with the Guards last season, going 1-2 with a 3.88 ERA. His problem was throwing strikes, walking 32 batters in 58 frames.

Another 40-man roster option is recently acquired Jason Bilous, who fanned 131 batters in 105.2 innings in the White Sox’ system last year. He did have a 6.30 ERA between AA and AAA though, as his control has been an issue.

The Guardians seem to view him as a reliever, as he has made two one inning appearances thus far, striking out four and walking a pair.

There is still time for De Los Santos and Sandlin to be ready, but Hentges may not have enough time to get back by the end of the month.

So, Francona and Willis have to sort out some candidates to take his place.

Some Free Agent Bargains For Guards?

Tomorrow will be February 1st, and that means it’s just a matter of time before baseball fans hear the first sign of spring: “Pitchers and catchers report to spring training”.

The Cleveland Guardians filled two holes this off-season, signing 1B/DH Josh Bell and C Mike Zunino as free agents, and both figure to get a lot of playing time, at least early in the 2023 campaign.

However, there are still some free agents sitting out there and a few of them could help the Guardians, and they could probably be signed at a bargain price, which is always attractive to the Cleveland ownership.

Here are a few guys we would be interested in:

We know the organization is committed to their young outfielders: Steven Kwan, Myles Straw, Oscar Gonzalez, and Will Brennan. However, it’s tough to overlook a player who can get on base like Robbie Grossman, who actually was in the Cleveland camp a few years ago.

The veteran switch-hitter, now 33 years old, has a career on-base percentage of .346, and against southpaws in his career, has a 790 OPS and gets on base at a .377 clip. He had a tough season a year ago, split between the Tigers and Braves, batting just .209, but had a 772 OPS in ’21 with Detroit, belting 23 home runs.

If Brennan isn’t ready or isn’t getting regular at-bats, or Gonzalez is having strike zone issues, he’d be someone who could step in. And that would also allow Will Benson to get regular playing time at AAA.

Another former Tigers piques our interest in the pitching department. With Anthony Gose probably missing the entire season, the Guardians could use another lefty out of the bullpen to go with Sam Hentges. Andrew Chafin would seem to be an ideal fit.

He appeared in 64 games for the Tigers last season, compiling a 2.83 ERA and striking out 67 hitters in 57-1/3 innings. And he had a 1.83 ERA for Oakland and the Cubs in 2021.

In his career, he’s held left-handed batters to a .222 batting average and a 603 OPS and his marks vs. right-handed batters are similar (.231 average/655 OPS). He would give Terry Francona another veteran option in relief.

We get the Guards had a lot of success with players coming up from the minor leagues a year ago, but even though the Cleveland farm system is very strong, that doesn’t happen every season, so it would be nice to fill a hole here and there with veteran alternatives.

In the past few seasons, we felt the Guardians needed outfielders badly, but the performance of the young players last year filled most of the holes. And we still believe Straw will rebound with a much better offensive season than a year ago.

We also normally like to add another experienced starting pitcher, but the organization has a plethora of prospects who could make a spot start early in the season if need be. We saw most of them a year ago, hurlers such as Cody Morris, Konnor Pilkington, Hunter Gaddis, and Xzavion Curry.

Still, it wouldn’t hurt anything to take a shot at either Grossman or Chafin. They could give the Guardians a lot of bang for their buck.

Guardians’ Offense Needs To Rebound As Calendar Turns

Man, has this year and this baseball season flown by. The season enters it’s final month (yes, I know there are four regular season games in October) on Thursday, and the Cleveland Guardians are still in the thick of a post-season race.

They lead the Central Division by a game and a half, and before people make snarky comments about the relative strength of that division, be advised the Guards are just 2-1/2 games behind Tampa Bay for the third best record in the AL, behind just the beasts of the league, Houston and New York.

Terry Francona’s squad has 36 games remaining, 24 of them being played at Progressive Field, where the Guardians have gone 35-24, despite scoring less runs per game than they do on the road. Cleveland hitters have a 685 OPS at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario, while they have a 702 OPS on the road.

Their pitchers are also better at home (3.60 ERA vs. 3.74 on the road).

So the hitting has step it up, particularly this week with two fellow post-season contenders, Baltimore and Seattle come to town.

For the season, Cleveland averages 4.2 runs per game, but over the last 12 games, that figure has dropped to 3.5, and over the last 25 contests, they are scoring just 3.76 per game.

Oddly, the offense for the catchers, which had been abysmal, has come alive in this span. Austin Hedges has hit .214 over the last month (not good unless you consider he’s batting .183 for the year) and Luke Maile has hit .361 with a 994 OPS in that span.

Josh Naylor has been in a slump, batting just .203 in the last 28 days (518 OPS) with just a single home run, and Amed Rosario has cooled off too, with a .257 batting average, although he’s hit four dingers this month.

We really liked Owen Miller’s hitting numbers in the minor leagues, but he appears to have lost his confidence at the plate and it’s tough to justify putting his name in the lineup, particularly when he plays at first, and he makes mistakes due to inexperience at the position.

Gabriel Arias has been getting time at first in Columbus, and although he’s batting just .231 at AAA, he does have 12 homers. The other downside is a 63:15 strikeout to walk ratio. It might be grasping at straws, but swapping them out might just help.

We think Myles Straw is just suffering through a deplorable offensive season, but he is an elite defender in centerfield. And we have no idea why he hasn’t tried bunting with his speed.

Will Benson has struggled since his recall (4 for 30), so it might be time to see Will Brennan, who has had a tremendous minor league season, batting .308 at AAA with a .369 on base percentage and 817 OPS. Between Columbus and Akron, he is hitting .309 with 10 HR and 95 RBI.

His strikeout to walk ratio? 59:47, meaning he fits right in with the contact approach the Guardians have.

Why not give Brennan some time in center, and if you have the lead, bring Straw in for defense?

As we head down the stretch, the Guardians’ offense has to get back on track. They can’t make a trade, so it has to happen from within. Maybe these moves can help. It’s been tougher to score at home this year, and they have a ton of games there the rest of the season.