Reviewing Cleveland’s Prospects From Five Years Ago

We believe that the basis for having a good organization in major league baseball is to have a very good player development program. Especially if you are a smaller market team.

Although we think every major league team could spend tons of money on players (after all, they are all millionaires or billionaires), many teams have a philosophy of not spending, a lot of them because the bang isn’t worth the buck.

For every Corey Seager or Marcus Semien from the newly crowned world champion Texas Rangers that works out, you have a Javier Baez or Jason Heyward.

However, in building a farm system, fans need to understand that the payoff rate for prospects is also not good.

We like to do this every winter, but let’s take a look at the Guardians’ farm system from 2018, five years ago. A system that ranked in the middle of the pack among major league teams, at #15.

Who has worked out, who hasn’t. Here is the list from Baseball America:

1). Francisco Mejia
2). Triston McKenzie
3). Bobby Bradley
4). Nolan Jones
5). Shane Bieber
6). Yu Chang
7). Willi Castro
8). Greg Allen
9). George Valera
10). Will Benson

In our books, there is one all-star type player from this list, and that’s Bieber, who won a Cy Young Award in the COVID shortened season of 2020. He’s 60-32 lifetime, made two all star appearances and thrown 200 innings twice. He has had injury issues in two of the last three seasons.

Although we think McKenzie is very good if he can stay healthy, and he was good in the second half of 2021 and in ’22 (11-11, 2.96 ERA), right now, there is concern over his elbow. But, if he can pitch, he’s a very good starting pitcher.

Mejia was the most highly regarded prospect, but we don’t think the organization felt he could be a full time catcher and traded him to San Diego for Brad Hand. In over 1000 big league at bats, he has a 678 OPS (.239/.284/.394). He never reached what was projected for him.

The book is still out on Jones and Benson, both of whom had very good seasons after being traded by Cleveland after the ’22 season. Jones had a 931 OPS for Colorado, but we worry about a strikeout rate that is over 30% in his time in the big leagues.

Benson had an 863 OPS with Cincinnati, but he fanned in 31.3% of his at bats. High strikeout rates don’t bode well for long term success in the majors.

Bradley, Chang, and Allen never found extended success in the majors, and although the latter two played in the bigs last season, neither are on 40 man rosters heading into the winter.

Castro was traded to Detroit, but had his best year with the Twins this season as kind of a super-utility player, playing six positions, and had a 750 OPS with 33 stolen bases.

What was funny to us was that we’ve been talking about Valera for so long. He had an 816 OPS between AA/AAA in 2022, but fell to 718 at Columbus last season, fighting a lot of injuries. He has pop and patience, but the batting average in his minor league career is just .242, but he gets on base 36.3% of the time.

So, out of the top ten, the successes are Bieber, McKenzie, Jones, Benson, and Castro, although the latter three should be re-evaluated at this time next year.

Valera is still a prospect, probably still top ten in the Cleveland system. The other four simply didn’t pan out.

Keep that in mind when you look at the list that will come out this winter.

Guardians Should Heed Peter Brand: “He Gets On Base”

There is a famous scene in the movie “Moneyball” where in a meeting of talent evaluators, GM Billy Beane, played by Brad Pitt, brings up a player and asks the group why he likes that player.

The assistant GM Peter Brand (really Paul DePodesta) played by Jonah Hill replies “he gets on base”.

That is a credo the Cleveland Guardians should use going forward toward 2024.

We all understand the Guardians need power too. They are last in all of baseball with just 106 home runs and rank 13th the American League in slugging percentage. We know they stress contact, striking out the least in the league, but are only 9th in the AL in on base percentage.

If you don’t have power, you better have a lot of guys getting on base. You see, “he gets on base” translates to “he doesn’t make outs”.

The three best Cleveland players to avoid making outs are Jose Ramirez with a .349 on base average, with Josh Naylor at .347, followed by Steven Kwan at .340. The next best player is Bo Naylor at .320.

The two players who joined the Guardians in August, veterans Kole Calhoun and Ramon Laureano are next at .319 and .318 each.

And since the game of baseball is measured by 27 outs, having guys who make a lot of outs is not good in terms of scoring runs.

We aren’t sure the front office thinks getting on base (err, not making outs) is a valuable skill. For exhibit A, we present Yandy Diaz.

Diaz certainly wasn’t the hitter he is today in Tampa (889 OPS), but what he did do here was get on base. He had a .361 OBP in the 88 games he played in Cleveland in 2017-18.

Last season, the Guardians traded two young outfielders, Nolan Jones and Will Benson. Their on base averages in AAA were .388 and .396 respectively. To be fair, they did receive Juan Brito for Jones, and he has a career .393 OBP in the minors to date.

The player they kept instead, Will Brennan, had a .367 OBP at the AAA level. This isn’t to bash Brennan, who seems to have improved after a mid-season slump. But he’s walked 12 times all season, less than Mike Zunino and the same number of times as Calhoun.

By the way, Jones and Benson both have a .367 OBP in the major leagues this season. That number would be the highest on the 2023 Guardians.

What is we told you they have a player on their current roster who got on base at a .393 clip at the AAA level? That player is Tyler Freeman and they can’t find a place for him right now.

We are sure there are other examples, but in 2016, Cleveland had veteran switch-hitter Robbie Grossman in training camp. Grossman has a career mark of getting on base at a .344 clip. Grossman played part of ’16 with Columbus, before being released in May.

He went to Minnesota, where he recorded OBPs of .386, .361, and .367 over the next three seasons.

We think the Cleveland organization is searching for the long ball so much, they are forgetting there are two aspects to offense, and the ability to get on base is one of them. And quite frankly, it’s probably easier to identify and obtain.

Remember this, a player with a 1.000 slugging percentage simply went 1 for 4 with a HR. A game in which a team had a 1.000 OBP would never end.

How Do Young Players Get Time On A Contender? Produce.

The Cleveland Guardians have a conundrum when it comes to playing young players. While conventional wisdom would say you need to give guys coming up from the minor leagues time to fail first, when you are still in a competitive situation, that luxury isn’t there.

We have heard the refrain before and still hear it when it comes to players like Nolan Jones and Will Benson, although the reasons for trading both of those guys were related to the 40-man roster.

The latest young Guardians’ player that engenders this debate is Gabriel Arias. Arias came over to the organization in the massive haul that was the Mike Clevinger deal from the Padres and was rated as a Top 100 Prospect by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus

Arias is a defensive wizard. He is a shortstop by trade, but has shown the versatility to play other positions very well. He played first base in the playoffs a year ago and has been playing quite a bit of right field this season.

However, he’s never been an elite hitter. His career OPS at the AAA level is 768, mostly because he has had issues controlling the strike zone with 188 strikeouts and 64 walks in 806 plate appearances. His OPS for his minor league career is 735.

Those issues have carried with him in the big leagues, where this year he is hitting .187 with a 606 OPS, and 50 punchouts in 154 times at the dish.

By contrast, Tyler Freeman has a career OPS in the minors of 813, carrying a .312 batting average and a 785 OPS in AAA. His credentials say he’s a better hitter than Arias.

Arias started getting some regular playing time starting May 16th and hit home runs in starts on May 18th and 19th, in the latter game it was a dinger which gave the Guardians the lead in extra innings vs. the Mets.

From May 18th through June 3rd, a span of 15 games, Arias went 12 for 40, a .300 batting average with eight walks and eight strikeouts. That’s promising.

From June 4th through today, Arias has received 34 at bats and recorded just three hits (.088) with six walks and 12 whiffs.

As we said earlier, if the Guardians were the Oakland A’s or Kansas City Royals, they could just ride out Arias’ (or any young player’s) cold streaks and hope they come out better for it. They just don’t have that option right now.

A team in contention for a playoff spot needs players who can contribute when called upon. Is that fair? No, it isn’t and frankly, we believe the Guardians’ brass would agree with that.

And make no mistake, with Jose Ramirez still in his prime, the front office should be feeling pressure to win and win now.

Two other young players, Tyler Freeman and David Fry, haven’t had nearly the opportunity afforded Arias, who the organization was trying to create ways to get at bats, but they’ve produced when called upon.

Freeman has only had more than one at bat in consecutive days twice this season, but he’s hit .290 in 62 at bats. Fry has only had more than one at bat two days in a row once but has contributed a big three run HR vs. San Diego and two game winning hits (June 24th vs. Milwaukee and Tuesday night vs. the Braves).

And Fry strikes out a lot too, fanning 13 times in 44 plate appearances.

So we ask, if you were Terry Francona, who would you play when an opportunity arises? That’s what trying to get young players at bats while contending looks like.

Too Early To Make Judgments On Ex-Cleveland Players

In the new world we live in, especially related to how sports is covered around the nation, a lot of what people see is highlights, a flash of what really happens. In baseball, most times it is the big hit that influences the game the most.

And of course, the biggest of those types of batting achievements is the walk off hit.

Recently, former Cleveland players Will Benson, now with Cincinnati, and Nolan Jones, currently with Colorado, delivered those hits for their teams. And naturally, the Guards’ fans went crazy wondering why the team dealt those players away.

We think most of this angst comes from the trade of Yandy Diaz following the 2018 season. Diaz didn’t hit for much power with Cleveland (just a .366 slugging percentage), but did get on base to the tune of a .361 on base average.

And Diaz did hit .312 in 39 games with the team in 2018. The Cleveland front office then made a bad deal, sending him and Edwin Encarnacion (salary dump) in a three team deal for basically Jake Bauers and Carlos Santana.

With the Rays, Diaz has an 814 OPS, a .378 on base percentage, and even though he hit just one homer with Cleveland in 299 plate appearances, he has 50 dingers in four plus seasons with Tampa.

And this season, he has emerged as an MVP candidate, with a .405 OBP and 953 OPS.

However, that doesn’t mean all players the Guardians cut ties with will do the same. Take Jones, for example. Cleveland moved him in order to protect some minor league players from the Rule 5 Draft.

In the organization’s eyes, Will Brennan had surpassed Jones, and after a fast start when he was called up, after the all-star break, he batted .203 with a 535 OPS albeit in 59 at bats.

And what may be worse in the Guardians’ view, he struck out 22 times vs. two walks. Keep in mind, the Guards want players who make contact first, and then will teach them to drive the ball. We get it, sometimes that doesn’t work.

With the Rockies, Jones has 18 hits in his first 54 at-bats with four homers. That’s impressive. He’s also fanned 19 times vs. five walks. It is something that should be tracked as the season goes on.

You know how we feel, if a batter cannot control the strike zone, it’s a matter of time before pitchers will exploit that. In the meantime, 50 at bats isn’t nearly enough to say Jones is the next Ted Williams.

By the way, the player Cleveland received for Jones, Juan Brito is just 21 years old and has an 858 OPS between Lake County and Akron this season. He’s walked 34 times vs. 29 whiffs.

Benson was in the same boat as Jones, Cleveland needed to clear spots on the 40-man roster, so he was traded to the Reds. He had a late season trial with the Guardians getting 61 plate appearances, hitting .182 (10 for 55) with just one extra base hit.

He struck out in 19 at bats, walking just three times.

With the Reds this season, he is 15 for 64 (.234) with three extra base hits and has fanned 20 times vs. six walks.

Also, keep in mind, both Jones and Benson are playing in notoriously friendly hitters parks.

Both Jones and Benson have less than 100 plate appearances for their new teams to date, so perhaps people should save their judgment for later in the season.

Maybe they will be Yandy Diaz or maybe they will wind up being just what the Cleveland front office thought. Let’s let it play out before we condemn anyone.

Tough Spot For Guardians’ Newest Rookies

The Cleveland Guardians started the season using Steven Kwan in left field and Andres Gimenez at second base, and by the end of the first weekend were using Owen Miller everyday as well.

That trio is 24, 23, and 25 years old, respectively.

As the season went on, we saw more young players. Oscar Gonzalez (24) and Richie Palacios (25, and since sent back to AAA) both contributed to the team’s success.

Since the beginning of July, the Guards called up Nolan Jones (24), Will Benson (24), and Tyler Freeman (23) to the big-league roster.

The organization wants to look at these players, but one thing complicates this philosophy: The Guardians are a game ahead of the Minnesota Twins and in first place in the AL Central Division.

There are always ups and downs with young players. Kwan, for example, had a poor May, hitting .173, but he made adjustments and has batted over .300 in each month since.

Miller had a torrid first month of the season and had a decent July, but has struggled otherwise and at this point hasn’t figured out what pitchers are doing to him.

So, Terry Francona is charged with the task of getting the three newest Guardians the playing time they need as young players, while continuing to win ballgames. And that’s not easy.

Right now, it’s tough to write Jones’ name in the lineup, but if he’s on the roster, you have to.

The rightfielder started great going 9 for 27 before the all-star break. Since then, in 61 plate appearances, Jones has hit .203 with one homer, and has fanned 22 times against just two walks.

Right now, he might be too selective, taking a number of fastballs in the strike zone for called third strikes.

It really hasn’t been fair for Benson, who since his call up on August 1st, has only played in 12 games, getting more than one at bat in just seven of them. He’s gone just 3 for 25 and has fanned nine times in 28 times at the dish.

That’s why Gonzalez has become pretty much the everyday guy in right, with Benson and Jones filling in when he DHs and with Benson getting some time in centerfield to give Myles Straw a breather.

Freeman gets into the lineup with Jose Ramirez is the DH and has spelled Amed Rosario a couple times as well. He’s been okay, going 5 for 22 with three walks and getting hit by three pitches. He has struck out just once, true to his minor league numbers, but outside of a ringing double to left a few days ago, he hasn’t been driving the ball.

It just shows why teams don’t like to bring up prospects unless they can get regular playing time and it also shows it is easier to rebuild and develop players when the team isn’t having success.

From now until the end of the season, the Guardians have to find playing time for Jones, Benson, and Freeman, and find it in situations where they have a chance to succeed. That’s not easy.

On the other hand, when these guys do get in the lineup, they have a pressure to perform, and that’s good. While they are playing, they are learning how to win.

That’s what team sports is all about.

Analyzing The Guardians’ Recent Moves

While the Cleveland Guardians did not make any trades at the August 2nd deadline, they certainly made a number of roster moves.

Will Benson, the team’s first round pick in 2016 was elevated to the big leagues on August 1st, replacing Alex Call. Call has been subsequently DFA’d and was picked up by the Washington Nationals.

The club then called up infielder Tyler Freeman to take Ernie Clement’s roster spot, and then in a shocking move, they cut ties with slugger Franmil Reyes last Saturday. Reyes was picked up by the Cubs a couple of days ago.

And we can’t forget Hunter Gaddis getting the call up to face Houston last Friday night. Although it didn’t work out in that game, we are sure we will see Gaddis again soon.

The Guardians continue to get younger and also keep playing good baseball, moving into a tie for first place in the AL Central with Minnesota on Tuesday.

Bringing up top prospects is a double edged sword because while it’s great to have them on a roster, it does not do them much good if there is no playing time. If you got better by watching, then we’d have a bust in Cooperstown right now.

So Terry Francona has to balance getting these recent additions some at bats and at the same time, continuing to win. At least that’s what we fans hope. The front office may care more about player development than making the post-season.

Freeman seems the easiest fit. Clement wasn’t contributing much at the plate (491 OPS) and the skipper seemed intent playing him vs. left-handed pitching even though he hasn’t had any discernable success against them.

Freeman can take those at bats, and if he can be in the lineup three or four times a week, he should be fine. He’s played in three games to date, going 2 for 8 with two walks.

Benson’s promotion was a little more curious. At the time, it was thought he was going to get some time at first base, and that might still be the plan, but he hasn’t played there yet. And as an outfielder, if he plays, he would seem to take away playing time from Nolan Jones.

Maybe he plays some in center, giving Myles Straw some time off, but the organization loves Straw’s defense, so that’s difficult to see.

And Jones fits in the same category. He needs to be in the lineup at least three or four days per week. Right now, Benson looks a little overmatched, striking out in half of his 12 plate appearances.

The roster might be better served with say, a third catcher, right now.

The Reyes release was a stunner. He had a poor season to date and with the Guards in the race, it was tough to put him in a lineup. He was supposed to bring some pop, but he was slugging just .350, less than Owen Miller.

With Josh Naylor’s leg injury, he needs to get at bats at the DH spot, and using Jose Ramirez at that spot also helps him get a partial day off too.

We agreed with sending Reyes to AAA because his power potential is something the Guardians need. They are 14th in the AL in home runs. The theory would be get him fixed in the minors and have him ready for 2023.

Obviously, there were other things involved that led to Cleveland just cutting ties with the big man right away.

There is a reason teams don’t just bring up every prospect as soon as they have success at AAA. There has to be a fit on big league roster because for most young players, to doesn’t do their career any good to come up and sit on the bench.

Let’s see if Terry Francona can find the delicate balance for Freeman, Jones, and Benson.