Tag: WAR

The OPS Debate

Right before the Major League Baseball trade deadline, the was a lot of talk about the relative value of players, and of course, statistics were brought up.

At this point, we would like to point out that we regularly purchased and read Bill James’ Baseball Abstract and found it fascinating, a different way of looking at the game and the players on the field.

So, we understand many of the sport’s new statistics, like OPS, and we usually list a player’s OPS when discussing his offensive prowess.  We also look at WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in terms of a player’s profile, but our opinion is it is biased toward middle of the diamond players, Jose Ramirez’ current season notwithstanding.

By the way, that’s our opinion, so save the anger.  But when Matt Chapman, third baseman from Oakland (we know not a middle infielder) measures to have the fifth highest WAR this season, it raises an eyebrow.

This isn’t to say Chapman isn’t a good player.  He has an 830 OPS and is a great defensive player.  He isn’t the 5th best player in the sport this season, and for that matter, Milwaukee’s Lorenzo Cain isn’t 6th either.

Let’s get back to OPS though.  James’ original premise was a batter who had an on base percentage of over .350 and a slugging percentage over .450, therefore displaying an ability to get on base and drive the ball, is a very good offensive player.

Today, there seems to be a group of people who value players who have high OPS due to dominance in the slugging area, leading to players who have low batting averages/on base percentages getting a lot of playing time.

The players who has the highest OPS with out being over the .350/.450 threshold in each category are as follows:

Javier Baez               914 OPS (.333 OBP/581 slugging)
Khris Davis              863 OPS  (.326/.536)
Gregory Polanco     862 OPS  (.344/.517)
Xander Bogaerts     855 OPS  (.342/.513)
Joey Votto                 852 OPS  (.425/.427)

Out of those players, which one would you like to have?

For us, it would be Votto, who by the way, also has the most distinguished career out of the group, although to be fair, he’s also the guy who has been around the longest.

One thing we would like to point out about the on base percentage and slugging percentage.

A player with a 1.000 on base percentage never makes an out, while a player with a 1.000 slugging percentage can arrive at that figure by going 1 for 4 with a home run.

And we would also add is making outs is the only way “time” is measured in a baseball game.  A team only gets 27 of them, and players who make them frequently shouldn’t be as valuable.

Look at the strikeout to walk ratios of the first four players–

Baez             101 K/17 walks
Davis            116 K/38 walks
Polanco          91 K/48 walks
Bogaerts        72 K/31 walks

In watching these guys hit, our feeling in watching them against the Indians is that in a tight situation, you can strike Baez and Davis out.  They swing at a lot of pitches out of the strike zone, and if we can see that, we are sure major league pitchers know it too.

We noticed in this summer’s amateur draft, the Indians went for players with good contact rates, that is to say, they didn’t strike out much.

This could be due to the success of Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, players who are good hitter, and can develop power later.

A look at the bottom ten teams in MLB in on base percentage shows nine teams not in the post season picture (Arizona is the lone contender).  As for slugging percentage, there are three teams above .500 (Giants, Phillies, and Rays) in the bottom ten.

What does it all mean?  We believe many people look at the statistics first in making judgments about players, and they value the total OPS.  We believe you have to see how the stat is compiled to determine the value of the player.

Just something we wanted to get off our chest.

MW

Using WAR to Identify Tribe Veterans Not Helping Club

This seems to be an annual thing to write when it comes to the Cleveland Indians and their manager, Terry Francona.

It is about the difference between patience and stubbornness.  Even Francona himself acknowledges that he can be stubborn at times because he trusts the players you have performed for him in the past.

Once again, it seems like Tito and general manager Chris Antonetti have some decisions to make if the Tribe is to remain in contention for the playoffs in 2015.

As the season nears the halfway point, it is becoming apparent that a few players aren’t contributing to the success of this team, and the question is should they be replaced?

Now, we aren’t total proponents of WAR (wins above replacement player) because our opinion is that it is tilted toward middle of the diamond players.  One of the selling points on Michael Bourn when he signed in 2013 was that he had a 6.1 WAR in 2012.

We looked at the stats and said he was a terrible offensive player for most of his career.  His WAR rating was high because he plays centerfield and he was a solid defensive player.

However, within a team, WAR does tell you who is contributing and who isn’t.

For example, the lowest WAR among position players on the Indians belongs to Nick Swisher at -0.6, meaning a player in AAA would be better than him.

The only other position player with significant playing time and a negative in this category is Jose Ramirez.  Which kind of validates the statistic.

On  the pitching staff, the hurlers who have a negative WAR on the season are Bruce Chen, who is now retired, T.J. House, who is currently injured, and two current members of the bullpen.

Those two would be veteran Scott Atchison and Nick Hagadone.

The former is now 39 years old and had an excellent season with the Indians in 2014.  Unfortunately, that was last year.

This year, he’s allowed six home runs in just 18 innings of work, and Francona can’t be comfortable bringing him into a game.  By all accounts, Atchison is a great guy, but he doesn’t appear to be able to be effective anymore.

Hagadone is one of those pitchers who has unbelievable stuff, and he’s left-handed to boot.  Scouts and personnel people always love guys like that.

His problem though is that he can’t throw strikes consistently, and that leads to problems.  He’s given up more hits than innings pitched and has walked ten in 23 innings.  His career ERA is 4.79.  And he will be 30 on New Year’s Day.

The point is this isn’t some 24-year-old flamethrower we are hoping will be able to corral his pitches.  He’s another guy that Francona has to be hesitant to bring into the game.

You can’t tell us the relief corps wouldn’t be better off with Austin Adams (2.38 ERA in 7 games) and Kyle Crockett (five scoreless appearances) pitching in Cleveland rather than Columbus.

Here’s a list of players hovering around a zero WAR, meaning they are replacement players:  Carlos Santana (0.3), Bourn (0.3) Mike Aviles (0.4), David Murphy and Brandon Moss (0.5).

And these pitchers:  Cody Allen (0.1 although he’s been better since the end of April), Marc Rzepczynski (0.0), Ryan Webb and Bryan Shaw (0.4).

This shows there are a lot of Indians who aren’t getting it done, and they need to pick it up if this team is going to start winning.

Remember, once players get into their 30’s, they aren’t getting better.  You can live with Giovanny Urshela and Francisco Lindor struggling a bit, because they will improve.

It’s not likely that Hagadone and Atchison will be better as the season goes on.

KM