Tribe Strengths, Weaknesses Show in First Week

Week one of the new baseball season has come and gone, and it is always funny to hear fans go crazy about one week of a 26 week season.

If the same results happened in late June, no one would think anything of it. This would apply to being shutout on back-to-back nights, which happened to the Cleveland Indians this week.

Because of the extremely small sample size, results in the first week are greatly magnified. No one really thinks (at least we hope not) that Jason Kipnis and Asdrubal Cabrera will hit .100 for the season, yet there they are, struggling at the onset of the new campaign.

On the other hand, let us get supporters ready for the reality that Justin Masterson will not win every one of his starts in 2013.

Still, one thing that could be a trend for the Tribe is the streaky nature of their offense, mostly because of the contact issues of many of the hitters in their everyday lineup. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the hitting had a few instances where they have problems scoring, just like they did in the first two games of the Tampa Bay series.

And the reason for that is they have a lot of all or nothing hitters. The trade-off to this is they will have streaks where they probably bludgeon their opponents as well, just like they did on Sunday afternoon in a 13-0 win.

It’s still better than last year, when the Indians had one of the worst offenses in baseball and had several hitters in their lineup where the opposing pitcher could relax during a game.

The other weakness that raised its ugly head was the starting pitching, which provided three or four (depending on how you feel about Zack McAllister’s outing on Friday night) good starts and three bad ones, most notably Brett Myers start in game three and Ubaldo Jimenez’ start in yesterday’s home opener.

That the worrisome thing about this year’s Indians, can the starters give them a chance to win on a night in, night out basis. That didn’t happen in Myers start, and it didn’t happen against New York.

Many fans and media members are concerned about Myers, who didn’t have a good spring and then pitched home run derby, Canadian style. But Myers has been better than Jimenez in the time period that has occurred since the latter was traded here in 2011.

Jimenez looked very good in his first start, but that’s exactly the thing that ticks people off most. In his second start, he was back to the Ubaldo we saw last season: unable to throw strikes consistently, his velocity down, and a lack of concentration that resulted in a stolen base by Chris Stewart, the Yankee catcher who had such a big jump he went in standing.

McAllister gave manager Terry Francona a good start, but he again gave up runs after his defense let him down, allowing two insurance runs in what was a 2-0 game after an error by 3B Mike Aviles. Francona said the big right-hander tries too hard to pick up his defense when miscues happen and that could be the cause of his problems allowing unearned runs.

Trevor Bauer had trouble locating his fastball in his start, walking seven in five innings, but he showed his stuff was good, allowing just three runs. If he can throw strikes with the heater, he could help before the year is out.

No overreactions here, just observations. However, nothing that happened in the first week should change any preconceived notions about the Cleveland Indians.

Sorry, Starting Pitching Ifs Spell 4th Place for Tribe

There is no question the Cleveland Indians are an improved baseball team in 2013.

There is no question the front office and ownership breathed new life into what has been a stagnant franchise over the last three or four years.

There is also no question that the American League is filled with good to very good teams, and that it looks like only the Twins and Astros have no realistic chance to contend for a playoff spot in 2013.

That’s why it is difficult to make the next statement. The Cleveland Indians will finish fourth once again this season.

It won’t be the same kind of fourth place team as last season, one in which the Tribe lost over 90 games.

The Indians will stay in contention most of the season and should finish over the .500 mark. They may finish 4^th and still be within 10 games of first place at the end of the season.

But as the team stands right now, they don’t seem to be better than the Tigers, Royals, and White Sox.

Why?

Starting pitching.

The Indians simply don’t have enough to win based on the guys who are opening the season.

Justin Masterson has a good arm, but tends to lose his release point and when that happens, we struggles to get it back. He is prone to big innings because of that trait. If he can throw strikes he can be a quality pitcher.

Still, he’s had three years as a starter in the majors and in only one of them has his ERA been under 4.00.

Ubaldo Jimenez has looked much better this spring than he did last year, and he is throwing strikes. However, his ERA since coming to the Tribe is over 5.00 and he’s made over 40 starts with Cleveland.

Brett Myers is a workman like guy who provides solid innings and lots of them. He’s not an ace of the staff guy though.

Zack McAllister showed promise after being called up in the middle of last season, but he doesn’t have a full year of major league experience, so it is tough to depend on him.

Scott Kazmir was pitching in an independent league last season, and although he has a great comeback story, you wouldn’t want to bet your house on him giving Francona 25 quality starts this season.

Last year, the Indians staff ERA was 4.78 while the league average was 4.08. That means new pitching coach Mickey Calloway needs to shave more than a half run per game to be just average.

The pitchers would have to do even better to rank in the top half of the league in this category.

The two hopes are Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer, who will be in Columbus’ rotation to start the year. Perhaps they can provide a boost should the rotation struggle.

Offensively, the Tribe lineup is much deeper replacing the Jack Hannahans and Casey Kotchmans of the world with players like Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, and Lonnie Chisenhall.

They also have alternatives if something doesn’t work out. For example, if Drew Stubbs hits like he did last year (.213 with 610 OPS), Francona can move Swisher back to RF, put Mark Reynolds at 1B, and use Mike Aviles and Jason Giambi at DH.

Last year’s squad had little power and little speed, meaning they needed three hits in an inning to score. In the off-season, GM Chris Antonetti added two players who hit more than 20 HRs last year (Swisher and Reynolds), and two more who stole 30 bases or more (Bourn and Stubbs).

Add in the continued development of Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, and Chisenhall, and throw in the steady Asdrubal Cabrera, and this team should be able to put runs on the board.

However, it all comes down to stopping the other team from scoring and there are too many question marks in the rotation.

If Jimenez and Masterson can get their ERAs under 4.00, this team has a chance to make the post-season and possibly win the division.

This is a talented team and it will play exciting baseball. But right now, fourth place is where they will end up.

Looking for Right Handed Bats?

As the baseball season approaches the middle of June, it looks more and more that the American League Central Division is very much up for grabs, meaning the Cleveland Indians have as good a shot as any team.

Right now, the pitching has been the biggest problem, ranking 12th in the league in ERA, but if recent outings by Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson are any indication of the future, that area may take care of itself.

Jimenez has begun to throw strikes, throwing 13-2/3 innings in his last two starts, walking just one batter. Keep in mind, prior to those two outings, he led all AL pitchers in allowing bases on balls. Clearly, whatever Scott Radinsky worked on in delaying the big righty before these starts worked.

Masterson hasn’t received any run support, but has pitched well in his last two efforts, allowing just 4 earned runs in 13 innings.

If these two have turned the corner, it means the biggest need for the Tribe is a right-handed stick.

It doesn’t figure that the Indians are going to get Albert Pujols, or someone of that ilk. In order to figure out who may be available, the first thing to look at is who has fallen out of contention.

A quick look at the standings show three teams currently more than 10 games out of first place, and all three are in the National League: Chicago, Colorado, and San Diego.

The next thing to look at is the players contract situation. It’s unlikely a team will deal someone with a reasonable deal for a short-term. That’s why the Josh Willingham trade rumors don’t make sense, unless the Twins can get a boatload of high level prospects.

Looking at the Cubs’ roster, the name that stands out is Alfonso Soriano, now 36-years-old, but with two more full seasons on a bloated contract. The more a team assumes dollar wise, the less they will have to give up in terms of prospects.

Soriano isn’t a high batting average or on base percentage guy (lifetime .274, but hasn’t hit that high since 2008), but he does hit for power, with ten straight 20 home run campaigns. And he looks like he’s on his way to an 11th with 12 HR’s this season.

It’s unlikely the Indians would want to add those kind of dollars for 2013 and 2014, but remember Travis Hafner’s deal comes off the books at the end of this season. Oh, and Soriano happens to play LF, a gaping, sucking hole for Cleveland.

A lower cost option from Chicago could be OF Reed Johnson, who can play all three OF spots. He’s a lifetime .283 hitter, whose average against lefties is .310 for his career with an 823 OPS. He would fit in nicely as a platoon player.

The Rockies don’t look like a good fit for the Indians, because the guys they might be looking to deal are left-handed hitters (Todd Helton, Jason Giambi) or in Michael Cuddyer’s case, just recently signed.

The Padres have two intriguing possibilities in OF Carlos Quentin (formerly of the White Sox) and utility OF Chris Denorfia.

Quentin, 29, is signed to a one year deal, and has had the Tribe’s interest before. Then GM Mark Shapiro tried to get him from Arizona after the 2007 season when he was eventually dealt to the White Sox.

In 2008, Quentin was a legitimate MVP candidate until he broke his hand late in the year against the Indians.

He has belted 2o home runs every year since that 2008 campaign, and although he doesn’t hit for a great average (.255 lifetime), he gets on base good enough via walks and getting hit by pitches (he’s been hit at least 15 times in each of the last four years).

Denorfia can play all three OF spots and is a lifetime .274 hitter (743 OPS). However, against left-handers, he’s a .306 hitter with a 798 OPS. He’s another guy who could fit in a platoon situation.

What can the Tribe give up? They do have good organizational depth in the bullpen and the middle infield. They won’t consider dealing last year’s first round pick and top prospect SS Francisco Lindor, but they do have two players at Class A Carolina in Tony Wolters and Ronny Rodriguez who have good futures.

And don’t forget 2B Cord Phelps, who continues to put up solid AAA numbers, but is blocked by Jason Kipnis.

More teams will drop out of contention by the end of July as the trading deadline nears. But if GM Chris Antonetti wants help right away, he can find some nice possibilities on the three teams mentioned here.

Tribe Hanging In After Another Benchmark

After last night’s game with the Detroit Tigers, the Cleveland Indians hit another benchmark on the 2012 season. They have played one-third of their scheduled games and sit with a 29-25 record.

That puts them on a pace for a record of 87-75 for the entire season, which could very well be good enough to win the AL Central Division.

It’s also time to look at the team and the current state of the ballclub.

While everyone came into the season claiming the pitching was solid, so far the results are just the opposite, ranking 12th in the AL in ERA.

The starting pitching in particular has been problematic, with only Derek Lowe (7-3, 3.06 ERA) providing consistent quality performances.

Justin Masterson (2-5, 5.09 ERA) has been up and down, and last night notwithstanding, Ubaldo Jimenez (6-4, 5.31 ERA) has been mostly disappointing.

Josh Tomlin (2-3, 5.32 ERA) has not pitched like he did early last night when he put up a string of quality starts. Really, prior to his last two starts, Jeanmar Gomez (3-4, 4.42 ERA) might have been the second best starter for the Tribe this season.

It was said during spring training and it is still true, Jimenez is the key to the success of the Indians, and right now he is joined by Masterson. If they cannot give Manny Acta good performances on the nights they start, it will be difficult for the Tribe to stay in the race.

The bullpen has been solid, but Acta seems comfortable using only lefty Nick Hagadone, and right-handers Joe Smith, Vinnie Pestano, and Chris Perez is games the Tribe is leading. That could create a tired bullpen going down the stretch.

Someone else needs to step up and give the team quality innings late in games. Acta seems to want veteran Jeremy Accardo to be that guy.

If the starting pitching can be more consistent and can get deeper into games, the bullpen will be more rested, and probably more effective.

That’s starts with Jimenez and Masterson.

Offensively, the Indians are right in the middle of the pack in runs scored, ranking 8th in the AL. This has been done despite holes in several positions, many of them spots traditionally known for offense.

Left field has been a mess with neither Shelley Duncan nor Johnny Damon doing much with the stick. Outside of a two-week span in May when he was respectable with the bat, Casey Kotchman has been a disaster at first base.

Yes, yes he has a good glove, but good teams need hitting at that position.

While Asdrubal Cabrera and Jason Kipnis have been consistent and productive at the plate, CF Michael Brantley has been a surprise, hitting .283 and has knocked in 25 runs for the year as well, even though he hasn’t homered.

He does have 19 extra base hits (16 doubles, 3 triples) though, and is even starting to steal bases effectively (9 of 13). If he starts drawing more walks, he can be a very good offensive player.

Shin-Soo Choo (.379 OBP) has been very good since moving into the leadoff spot, providing a solid top of the order with Cabrera and Kipnis.

Unfortunately, outside of Brantley, the rest of the batting order has struggled. Carlos Santana has just 5 HR and a slugging percentage of under .400. He needs to provide some pop.

Travis Hafner is hurt again, out until the All-Star break. Jack Hannahan hit well early, which likely wasn’t going to last, but he’s been hurt for basically the last month.

The hope is that 3B Lonnie Chisenhall can provide some power, and he’s hit 2 HR’s since being brought up a little over a week ago.

Matt LaPorta was brought back up to help at first and in left, and probably could be an upgrade over the players in those spots now, but he’s not going to be a middle of the order presence.

If the Tribe is going to contend, they need Santana and Chisenhall to provide some power or GM Chris Antonetti will need to make a deal.

Once again, a third of the season has been played and the Indians are still in contention. If the starting pitching can step up, the Tribe can stay in the race into September.

Tribe Pitchers are Walking Too

One of the early season surprises for the Cleveland Indians is their propensity for taking walks.

In fact, Tribe hitters have taken 21 more walks than any other team in the American League, a key reason they are 3rd in the league in on base percentage, despite ranking 9th in batting average.

The base on balls has definitely been a key component of their offense so far in 2012.

Unfortunately, it has worked both way for the Indians, as their pitching staff has allowed the second most free passes in the AL.

What makes it worse is that Cleveland pitchers also rank 12th in the junior circuit in striking out hitters, which gives them the worst strikeout to walk ratio in the league.

And the main culprits in dishing out bases on balls are the starting pitchers. The relievers are generally doing a good job.

The most obvious bad thing about the walks is that it puts a runner on base. Of course, there are times that it is a strategic move, but mostly it allows a hitter to reach base without having to swing the bat.

The hidden problem with the walks is that it requires hurlers to throw more pitches, which runs up pitch counts, and doesn’t allow them to get deeper into games.

This puts more of a burden on the bullpen, which has thrown the 4th most innings in the league. The Tribe relief corps has been very good, perhaps even the strength of the team, but history tells us than putting a burden on relievers early in the year sometimes comes back to bite a team in the behind.

Check out the strikeout to walk ratio of the Cleveland starters:

Justin Masterson 29K’s/25 BBs
Ubaldo Jimenez    20K’s/25 BBs
Derek Lowe             10K’s/12 BBs
Josh Tomlin            27K’s/ 7 BBs
Jeanmar Gomez     15K’s/ 4 BBs

As you can see, it is the veteran pitchers who right now are having problems finding the strike zone.

The only bullpen pitcher having issues with walking hitters is the much maligned Dan Wheeler, who has walked five against just two strikeouts.

Granted, the Indians don’t have a lot of strikeout pitchers in the starting rotation. Masterson and Lowe are sinkerballers, and Tomlin usually gets the job done by getting ahead in the count and expanding the strike zone.

He doesn’t have typical swing and miss stuff despite ranking second among the starters in strikeouts.

Jimenez is most definitely a power pitcher, and Gomez’ new found slider is developing into a swing and miss offering.

Acta and pitching coach Scott Radinsky both stress the importance in getting ahead in the count. Other baseball experts will tell you the best pitch in the game is strike one. Right now, some of the Tribe starters are having a problem throwing that pitch.

There is no doubt that Acta is concerned about the wear and tear on his bullpen. He kept Chris Perez and Vinnie Pestano out of Monday’s doubleheader, and he said Pestano wasn’t available last night.

Those two and sidearmer Joe Smith have been in too large of a percentage of the Indians’ games.

A lot of that is because the Tribe plays a lot of close games, and those three are the skipper’s most reliable guys, although rookie Nick Hagadone is starting to earn Acta’s trust.

However, any success the Indians will have this season is predicated on the starters giving the team innings, and they can stay in games longer if they throw strikes.

As much as taking walks helps the Cleveland Indians, giving up too many has to be a concern.

Can Tribe Count on Ubaldo?

Going into the 2012 season, most experts agreed that the Cleveland Indians best chance to contend for the post-season was for Ubaldo Jimenez to have a big season.

The big right-hander, acquired from Colorado at the trade deadline last season, could form a formidable one-two punch with Justin Masterson, giving the Tribe two solid starting pitchers.

Right now, having Jimenez put together two consecutive quality starts would be a victory.

Hopefully, the mechanical adjustment discussed in today’s The Plain Dealer will fix the former Rockie. But if this doesn’t work, it is looking more and more like GM Chris Antonetti didn’t get the ace he thought he was getting.

There is no question Jimenez’ velocity has dipped in recent years. That could be a mechanical issue, an injury to his shoulder, or just age.

According to Baseball Prospectus.com, Jimenez’ average fastball was close to 98 MPH in 2007, his rookie year. It has steadily dropped to 96 MPH in 2010, to 94 MPH in ’11, to 93 MPH this season.

Still, there are plenty of pitchers who don’t throw 95 MPH that win consistently in the big leagues.

The bigger problem is throwing strikes with regularity.

Ubaldo has never had pinpoint control. In recent years, he’s walked 3.7 batters per nine innings. Not exactly a Greg Maddux like figure.

However, it’s not really a problem because he’s averaged around 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings. And if you can strikeout twice as many as you walk, it’s one of the signs you are a good pitcher.

He also has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched, another sign of being effective on the mound.

Even last year, in his 11 starts with the Indians, which no one is labeling as a success, Jimenez allowed 68 hits in 65-1/3 innings, and struck out 62 while walking only 27 hitters.

So far, this year he has not put up those kinds of numbers.

The hits per innings pitched isn’t too bad, he’s allowed 30 hits in 28-2/3 innings, although that figure is helped by throwing seven, one hit frames in his first start.

The biggest negative factor is the walks. He’s allowed 20 bases on balls against just 14 strikeouts. It was pointed out that it took him 92 pitches on Tuesday before a Chicago hitter swung and missed. That’s disturbing.

If you walk hitters without the ability to strike anybody out, you have big troubles ahead. That’s where Jimenez is.

The inability to find the strike zone also means the righty can’t get deep into games.

This year, he hasn’t been able to get through six innings in a start since his first start in the second game of the season. Josh Tomlin is a guy who pretty much is a six inning pitcher.

There’s nothing wrong with Tomlin, he’s a good solid starter. But to be sure, the Tribe front office certainly expected more when they traded for Jimenez last July.

So far, he hasn’t delivered it. He’s more of a back of the rotation starter, right now he’s kind of a Roberto Hernandez (Fausto Carmona) clone. Manny Acta can’t be sure what kind of outing he’s going to get when Jimenez toes the rubber.

It’s tough to win and count on a player when his level of performance goes up and down.

It’s still early and there is plenty of time for Jimenez to get straightened out and have a solid season for the Indians. His next start will be Sunday and here’s hoping the adjustment works out.

Because he’s facing one of the AL’s best hitting teams in the Texas Rangers. A tough test for a pitchers who is trying to get himself on the right track.