A Major Off-Season Starts For The Guardians

The 2021 Major League Baseball season ended last night and fans of Cleveland baseball were subject to seeing highlights from the 1995 World Series, because the Atlanta Braves won their first world championship since defeating the Indians in six games that season.

And the end of the season means any reference to the team henceforth will be as the Guardians, as Cleveland’s name change takes effect. In fact, the name “Indians” above the giant scoreboard in left field was starting to be removed on Tuesday.

Besides the name change, the front office has a lot of work to do before spring training opens (hopefully because of the negotiations for a new CBA) in February in Goodyear, Arizona.

The offense needs to be improved for sure. The Guardians have finished in the lower half of the league in each of the last two seasons in runs scored, and it has been noted, you have to score runs to get into the post-season. Four of the top five teams in scoring made the playoffs in the American League.

While it is always noted pitching wins in October, and that is true for the most part, but in the regular season, teams need to score. Cleveland finished 9th in runs in 2021, and they likely need to get into the top six if they want to play past game 162 in 2022.

The corner outfield spots need to be upgraded badly, as well as second base and first base. And the offense in general would be helped by getting more guys who avoided making outs. Guardian hitters had an on base percentage of just .303 in ’21, ranking 13th in the league.

They ranked 7th in home runs, but it would be nice if there were men on base when Jose Ramirez or Franmil Reyes launched one into the seats.

For the first time in awhile, the pitching was also below the league average, with Cleveland ranking 10th in the AL in ERA, dropping from 1st in the COVID shortened season of 2020.

Certainly the injuries to Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac had a lot to do with that. For a stretch in June and July, Terry Francona was using J.C. Mejia and Sam Hentges as rotation pieces.

However, the pitching for 2022 could actually already have been bolstered by what happened this past summer. Cal Quantrill emerged as a rotation piece, going 8-3 with a 2.89 ERA in 40 appearances, including 22 starts. As a starter, he went 8-2 with a 3.12 ERA.

He most certainly will start spring training as a starter.

The other excellent development was the growth of Triston McKenzie. The wiry right-handed finished the season 5-9 with a 4.95 ERA, but in a seven start span from August 5th to September 14th, he went 4-2 in 46 innings, with a 1.76 ERA and 48 punch outs. Included in that span was a near perfect game against the Tigers, where he didn’t allow a baserunner until two outs in the 8th.

On the other hand, this season should have told the brass you can never have enough pitching depth. Eli Morgan is still around, and they traded for Peyton Battenfield and Konnor Pilkington at the deadline, and second round pick (2020) Logan Allen had an excellent season. And of course, Mejia, Hentges and Logan Allen (the Reyes’ deal) are still around, depending if they stay on the 40 man roster.

Hentges might be viewed as more of a reliever.

The first big decision will be which minor leaguers need to be protected from the “Rule 5” draft, and that determines how many players currently on the 40 man roster will be protected.

It should be an interesting winter, besides the rebranding, for the Cleveland Guardians

Seeing Bieber, Civale On Mound In Games Is Important

We see the weekly reports. Aaron Civale threw off the mound, Shane Bieber threw pitches with a weighted ball. The top two pitchers in the Cleveland rotation continue to make slow, but steady progress overcoming their injuries.

The question to be asked though, is should the Indians’ front office just shutdown the two hurlers and let them start getting ready for spring training?

We think it is important that both get out on a big league mound and make at least a couple of starts before the regular season ends.

Obviously, it doesn’t make a difference in terms of the team’s record. The Tribe is currently under the .500 mark and is over 10 games out in the AL Central Division standings and currently sit nine games out in the wild card race.

And really, if you are under the break even mark, sentences involving the words “playoffs” and “chances” should not be allowed.

That said, why shouldn’t the front office simply let their two aces recover and start getting ready and being healthy for the 2022 season?

First, look in the dugout of most Indians’ games these days. There are Bieber and Civale watching, sitting with the other starters, as is kind of a tradition among the Cleveland starters. They watch bullpen sessions as a group, and share a comradery. And Bieber is most definitely the leader of the group, in his position as reigning Cy Young Award winner and staff ace.

Perhaps the two young veterans want to show the younger guys, like Triston McKenzie and Eli Morgan, that the season lasts 162 games, there are no shortcuts. You start in February and you play it out until September, and if you are lucky enough, throughout October.

That’s the responsibility of leadership.

Then there is the confidence that the two hurlers have recovered from their problems and can go into the off-season feeling good that in Civale’s case, his finger is good, and in Bieber’s case, his shoulder is strong enough to do their normal off-season workouts.

And to us, it isn’t just enough to make just one start before the campaign ends. Let both rebuild their arm strength enough so they can each make three or four turns through the rotation.

Now, we aren’t saying to be stupid, and allow either to throw 120 pitches during a contest that doesn’t have an impact as far as post-season possibilities go. We would be very careful with the pair’s workload. But getting both Bieber and Civale out on the mound would be good for both the organization and the two players.

And just one start isn’t enough either. Both need to know going into the winter that they can make their regular turn without concern. Again, we understand it is not like going through the meat of the schedule, but it would show both the finger and shoulder issues are no longer a hinderance.

Besides, what’s the upside of shutting both down for the season? It’s not like football or basketball where is it is extremely helpful to get a higher draft pick? Baseball’s amateur draft doesn’t carry the same weight in that regard.

And although the organization is taking a good look at a lot of young players, it isn’t like Cleveland is “tanking”.

It doesn’t mean much in terms of the standings and quite frankly, whether or not the Indians finish second or third in the AL Central is kind of inconsequential. But knowing Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale have healed and can be counted on for 2022 is important.

That’s why it would be good to see them out on the mound in September, at least for a couple of starts.

Starting Pitching Hasn’t Been The Issue For Tribe

The Cleveland Indians lost the top three members of their starting rotation, so many people might think their 6-9 record after the All Star Game is due to the loss of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac, who has since returned to the rotation.

It’s really not, though. Since the break, Tribe starters have allowed three runs or less nine times, and limited the opponents to four runs in 12 of the 15 contests.

So, the starters are doing their job in terms of keeping the Indians in the game each night.

Cal Quantrill has been the staff leader since the break, making four starts, allowing one run in each of them, totaling 23 innings. He is making a big claim to keep a spot in the rotation when everyone is healthy.

Plesac has built up his workload after coming back from his thumb fracture, and has made three starts, including the longest outing by a starter, 6-2/3 frames against Tampa on July 23rd. He’s pitched 17-2/3 innings in three starts, allowing eight runs.

Both Quantrill and Plesac are giving the team some length, which is easing the burden on an increasingly weary bullpen.

Eli Morgan has made three starts, and although he hasn’t been dominant, he kept Cleveland in games, allowing three runs or less in each and giving the manager at least five innings.

The down side for the rotation has been JC Mejia and Triston McKenzie. The latter had a great outing vs. the Rays (6 IP, 2 ER, 6 K’s), but in his other two outings, he allowed five and six runs in four inning stints. In his last start, Saturday night vs. the White Sox, the control issues that have plagued him all year raised up again, walking three in four frames.

In his previous three starts, McKenzie issued just one free pass.

Mejia continues to show he shouldn’t be starting big league games at this time. He’s made three post all star starts, allowing 13 runs in just under 15 innings. We don’t understand why, even if this experimental point in the season, management keeps running him out there.

It can’t be helping the kid’s confidence.

The problem continues to be the hitting. Outside of Saturday’s 12 run explosion in Chicago, the Tribe hitters have mustered more than four runs just three times. Dating back to June 19th, a span of 35 games, the Indians have scored five or more tallies just nine times, and three of those came in losses.

Keep in mind, the American League average for runs scored per game is 4.56, so five runs is just slightly above the norm. We aren’t asking for much.

It is amazing that even without the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and the guy who was leading the AL in wins when he was injured, the starting pitchers have held up their end of the bargain.

The Indians might be the only team in the majors who could lose three starting pitchers for a lengthy period of time and still not have that area be the weakness of the team.

Keep in mind, the front office added two more starters at the AA level at the trade deadline as well.

It’s pretty clear what needs to be done over the winter. We also might find some solutions with the young players who will get ample playing time the rest of this season.

There is no question this team has struggled over the last six weeks, but since the break, starting pitching hasn’t been the issue.

Tribe Slump A Result Of All Phases

On June 24th, the Cleveland Indians beat the Minnesota Twins 4-1 to bring their record to 41-31, and were just two games behind the White Sox in the American League Central Division.

Since that day, the Tribe has gone 7-17, including a nine game losing streak from June 30th, when they lost a doubleheader to Detroit to July 7th, when they lost a twin bill to Tampa.

And they’ve also lost 11 straight games to the Rays, spanning back to 2019.

The injuries to the starting pitching gets quite a bit of the blame for this bad streak, but in Cleveland’s last 29 games, a span that actually started earlier than the losing, the Indians have scored more than four runs just seven times.

Amazingly, they have lost three of those games.

Since the beginning of July, the Tribe has lost three games where they had the lead going into the 9th inning.

The point is this stretch has been brutal for Terry Francona’s squad, with each area of the roster contributing to the losing.

The team had to be happy when a starting pitcher gives them five quality innings, but recently, Zach Plesac has returned to give them some good outings, and Cal Quantrill has gone 2-0 with a 3.22 ERA in four starts.

Rookie Eli Morgan has been able to pitch five innings in each of his last five outings. His ERA has been 6.12 in those starts, but he has given the team a chance to win each time.

So, despite the injuries to their top three starters, the starting pitching hasn’t been awful. Triston McKenzie has been better since his most recent visit to Columbus either. Unfortunately, JC Mejia continues to show he’s not ready to pitch in the majors.

The bullpen has shown signs of wear and tear to the three late inning relievers, with Emmanuel Clase blowing two ninth inning leads and James Karinchak one, and Bryan Shaw has allowing 11 runs, nine earned in his last 17 appearances.

The offense has struggled along with their best weapon, Jose Ramirez. In his last seven games, Ramirez is just 2 for 18, with a homer. Over the last 14 days, he is hitting .160 (4 for 25). Even worse, over the last 28 days, he’s hitting .230 with four long balls. He still has an 846 OPS in that span.

His production has dropped since he was hit in the foot by a pitch against Pittsburgh, which coincidentally is when the Cleveland offense hit this cold patch over the last 29 games. He has also been battling a sore elbow.

Ramirez is by far the best position player on the team, and because of that, if he is struggling, it is very difficult for this offense to get anything going. The only consistent hitters Francona has are Jose, Franmil Reyes, and Harold Ramirez, and for some reason, the latter gets left out of the lineup far too often.

Yes, some players have pitched in from time to time, such as Bobby Bradley who has belted 11 homers, but in July, he has batted .158 with 30 strikeouts in 72 plate appearances. He has taken some walks, but the swing and miss issues are still a major issue.

The defense also breaks down a lot. Cesar Hernandez’ work with the glove has taken a dramatic dip. Amed Rosario has range issues and problems turning the double play. Fly balls hit to anyone besides Bradley Zimmer and Oscar Mercado have become adventures.

That doesn’t help a young pitching staff either.

Among the everyday players, outside of the two Ramirez’s and Reyes, could the front office make a deal that would weaken any other position? We doubt it. Let’s say Hernandez is moved, it would give Owen Miller another shot. Amed? They could get another look at Andres Gimenez, who would at least provide better defense.

No, the Indians shouldn’t go into tank mode, but they should look to reshape the roster with an eye towards 2022. Getting Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale back should mean an improved offense put the Indians in contention next year.

But they should look to get stronger in all areas too. There is room for that in all phases of the game.

Tribe Should Have Heeded Tito’s Adage

Terry Francona has always said when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more. It’s too bad his bosses didn’t heed his advise.

We know the Indians have traded away a lot of pitching over the last two and a half years, moving former Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber, and then Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger in deadline deals in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

The organization has done a tremendous job developing young pitchers. The current (if healthy) top of the rotation features three pitchers drafted in 2016: Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, and Aaron Civale. Going into spring training, the fourth and fifth spots appeared to belong to Cal Quantrill and Triston McKenzie.

We wrote at the time that outside of Bieber, none of those guys had more than 300 big league innings under their belt, and it would be wise to trade for or sign at least one experience arm.

Pitchers like Tijuan Walker (6-3, 2.38 ERA with the Mets), Jake Odorizzi (2-3, 4.08 ERA with Houston), and Tyler Anderson (3-8, 4.75 ERA with Pittsburgh) among others all were available shortly before spring training started. And none of them signed for huge amounts of money, always a consideration for the frugal Cleveland franchise.

Perhaps the organization got too caught up in the success of Bieber, Plesac, and Civale, all of whom seemed to have very little growing pains coming up to the bigs. Or more realistically, the ownership would not allow for the signing of a veteran hurler to add another proven arm.

Quantrill had command issues in spring training (he’s still going through them), so he went back to the bullpen, because of that and the fact that Logan Allen pitched extremely well in Arizona.

When the regular season started, Allen couldn’t keep the ball in the yard, and McKenzie, who opened as the 5th starter, couldn’t throw strikes.

They tried 24-year-old Sam Hentges, 24-year-old JC Mejia, and 25-year-old Eli Morgan, none of whom had any major league experience, and none were experiencing any great success in the minors.

When Bieber got the call in 2018, he was 6-1 with a 1.47 ERA in 13 starts at AAA and AA. Plesac came up in 2019 out of necessity due to injuries, but he was 4-2 with a 1.70 ERA in 10 starts in the high minors. Civale was 7-1, 2.43 in 13 starts in ’19 when he got the call.

By contrast, Hentges didn’t even pitch in the minors this year, nor last season due to the pandemic. His last minor league season was spent in Akron in ’19, where he went 2-11 with a 5.13 ERA.

Mejia had made two career starts above Class A in his life, both this year, before getting called up. He was 3-1 with an ERA just over four in Hi-A ball, in 2019, pitching just 33 innings.

Morgan made four starts this year at Columbus (4.67 ERA) and made 19 starts in AAA two years ago, with a 3.79 ERA.

We understand the organization didn’t think the latter trio was ready for the big league rotation now, but they left themselves no room for error.

And when Plesac went down on May23rd, the Tribe could’ve signed a free agent not currently in anyone’s organization and they would be ready now to help the team over this hurdle.

Rick Porcello, Cole Hamels, and Anibal Sanchez are just three pitchers still unattached, and another Homer Bailey, just signed with Oakland. Could any of those guys have helped? There is no way of knowing, but at the very least, they could have bought time for the youngsters.

They could’ve made a trade as well, although we would like to think Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff tried. It is well documented the organization has a ton of middle infielders regarded as good prospects. Move one of them for a starter who can soak up innings without taking the team out of a game early.

Perhaps the Indians can whether the current storm and stay in the race for the playoffs, and if they do and come up just short, they could point to these games pitched by men who weren’t ready to handle the job.

The point is the front office (including ownership) should have listened to their skipper. Heading into spring training, the pitching staff was very inexperienced. They pretended it wasn’t an issue.

Tribe Needs Starting Pitching…And Quickly

The news came like a gut punch to Tribe fans all over the nation. Shane Bieber was placed on the IL with the shoulder strain.

The Indians are currently sitting with a 34-28 record and are in second place in the American League Central Division, 5-1/2 games behind the White Sox. They are also just 1-1/2 games behind Houston (although tied in the loss column) for the second wild card spot.

That seems good, doesn’t it.

Until you think about the state of the starting pitching for the Tribe, at least currently. Right now, the rotation consists of Aaron Civale, one of the better starting pitchers in the majors right now. It also included Shane Bieber, but he won’t pick up a baseball for at least two weeks.

Civale currently leads the AL in wins with nine, tied for the Major League lead with the Dodgers’ Julio Urias.

Hopefully, Zach Plesac will return sooner than later, perhaps after the All Star break, and he will give Terry Francona a third starter who should be able to give him at least six solid innings.

As for the rest of the pitchers who have started games recently, the numbers aren’t exactly pretty. The once plentiful supply of good arms in the farm system has appeared to have dried up.

Remember what Francona has always said, when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more.

Triston McKenzie has made 10 starts, totally 38-2/3 innings. He has a 6.75 ERA in those frame. The good news? He has struck out 54 hitters. The bad news? He has walked 35.

By the way, that comes to less than 4 innings per start, which is not good.

Left-hander Sam Hentges has made four starts, with a 8.56 ERA in 13-2/3 innings. That’s an average of 3-1/3 frames per start.

Another youngster (McKenzie is just 23, Hentges just 24), 24-year-old JC Mejia, has made three starts. His first was pretty good, going three scoreless innings at Baltimore as the Indians were getting him stretched out. In his second, he didn’t make it out of the first inning in St. Louis, giving up four runs. Last night, he went four innings.

Cal Quantrill has a similar experience. His first start was pretty good, going 3-2/3 and allowing just one run vs. the White Sox, but in his second start, he lasted just an inning and a third, allowing seven runs, five of them earned.

If we include Logan Allen’s five starts at the beginning of the year, which totaled 15-2/3 innings, an average of just over three innings per start, the starting pitchers not named Bieber, Civale, and Plesac are creating a big burden on the bullpen.

Added up, that comes to 24 starts made by other pitchers than the top three in the rotation, and the average number of innings pitched in those starts is 3-1/3.

And we are not counting the opener start made by Phil Maton or the start made by Eli Morgan, which by the way would lower that average, since he worked just 2-2/3 innings.

We understand that average is skewed somewhat by trying to get Quantrill and Mejia stretched out so they can give the team at least five innings. So, their starts this week against the Orioles are huge in figuring out what will happen over the next two weeks.

With Bieber now out, it’s clear the organization needs to do something about the starting pitching if they want to remain in contention for a playoff spot.

There are teams that have fallen out of the post-season race, like the Rangers, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Orioles. However, the reason a few of them have dropped out is because their starting pitching stinks.

Still, you might be able to pry lefty Tyler Anderson (3-6, 4.52 ERA) or right-hander JT Brubaker (4-5, 3.90 ERA) out of Pittsburgh, or might Texas give up Kyle Gibson (4-0, 2.13 ERA, but making almost $18 million over the next two years) for the right price.

Remember, the Indians farm system is deep at the lower levels, particularly in the middle infield, so there could be a fit.

We know the Cleveland organization is known for their patience, but if they are too patient, they could start to see the lack of starting pitching take its toll. Considering how hard they have fought to be in the race, that would be a shame.

Finding #4 and #5 In Rotation Is Tribe’s Newest Issue

When you trade three starting pitchers the caliber of Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Mike Clevinger since the middle of the 2019 season, it stands to reason there will be a void in your starting pitching.

That’s where the Cleveland Indians are today.

When the Tribe had that trio in their rotation, along with Shane Bieber, and prospects like Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale in the pipeline, there was a comfort among fans and we would guess the coaching staff. They had a chance to win each and every game.

They thought coming into the 2021 season they had the pieces in place for another good rotation. Triston McKenzie showed promise last season, albeit in a shortened season, and Logan Allen went to Goodyear and won a spot in the Opening Day rotation.

However, remember that McKenzie didn’t pitch at all in the 2019 season, so he is very inexperienced, and Allen was a good prospect, but that’s all. He’s still a rookie.

Allen started out fine, pitching five innings in each of his first two starts, but he couldn’t get out of the third inning in each of his next three starts and was sent to Columbus, where it hasn’t been pretty. He’s pitched 11-2/3 innings, allowing 19 runs in three starts.

McKenzie simply couldn’t throw strikes. He’s walked 30 hitters in 31-1/3 frames with Cleveland this year, and his lack of control comes suddenly. In his last start Friday night before he was send to Columbus, the 23-year-old righty sailed through the first three innings, allowing one run. In the fourth, he started walking everyone in sight.

Outside of his second start, a four inning stint against the White Sox in which he walked two, McKenzie walked three or more in every other start, and he went no more than five innings in any of those outings.

The struggles of the four and five spots in the rotation put a lot of pressure on Bieber, Plesac, and Civale to pitch well and pitch deep into games when they start to keep the Tribe in the race for a post-season spot. They won’t acknowledge that, they will simply say they go out and do their job every fifth day.

So, where does Terry Francona and the front office go from here? Is there another Plesac or Civale, who seemingly comes out of nowhere to fill the last two slots in the rotation?

Young, 24-year-old Sam Hentges has started twice and had extended outings in two others, with mixed results. His first start was a 4-2/3 outing vs. the Cubs, in which he held them off the scoreboard, but walked four, running his pitch count up so he couldn’t complete five innings.

He will get another opportunity against Detroit this week.

Will another rookie, Jean Carlos Mejia get a start this week? He made his major league debut Friday, pitching 2-1/3 innings, striking out five. But, he has pitched just 11 innings over the Class A level in his career, meaning no one knows what he will do when he has to go out there every fifth day.

At Columbus, there is Kirk McCarty, a soon to be 26-year-old southpaw who is 3-0, 2.66 ERA, 14 K’s, 5 walks in 23 innings, but he has also not pitched above Class A before this season.

Eli Morgan is a 25-year-old right-hander who has experience in AA ball, and is 0-1 with a 3.95 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 13 innings this season. He has walked eight though, but his minor league career doesn’t indicate wildness.

Another lefty, Scott Moss, has been bandied about over the last two seasons, but left his last start with a hand issue. So, he’s probably not a candidate.

If the Indians are going to stay in the race for a post-season spot, finding someone who can give them quality innings after Bieber, Plesac, and Civale is critical. We would doubt that any kind of deal is coming either, that’s not the organization’s style.

The number of off days is dwindling, so Francona and Carl Willis have to find some answers. The comfort level of knowing you have a chance to win every day is gone.

Still Questions For Tribe: Rotation and CF

Spring training is getting down to the nitty gritty. The regular season commences a week from tomorrow in Detroit and the Cleveland Indians still have questions in the starting rotation and in centerfield.

Coming into camp, the favorites for the last two spots in the rotation seemed to be rookie Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill, who came over in the Mike Clevinger deal at the deadline last season.

However, things in baseball don’t always work out like you want them.

Both McKenzie and Quantrill have struggled in Arizona, and Terry Francona and pitching coaches Carl Willis and Ruben Neibla might be thinking of going in a different direction.

McKenzie, who has only thrown 39 innings in the past two seasons combined, has walked 10 hitters and allowed seven home runs in 14-1/3 frames. True, it is spring training, the ball tends to fly in Arizona, and the righty might be working on pitches, but those aren’t good numbers.

Quantrill has had issues with command all spring too, walking nine in his 11 innings pitched.

Complicating things in a good way has been the performance of southpaw Logan Allen. He’s thrown 9 innings in the desert, allowing just one run and fanning 11. He may have just earned a spot on the big club.

Another complication is that Adam Plutko is out of options. The right-hander has allowed five runs in 8 innings of work, but has struck out nine.

It would not be a shock if Plutko got the baseball in the home opener on April 5th against Kansas City. The others (McKenzie, Quantrill, and Allen) all have options and the way the schedule is set up for the Tribe, they really don’t need a fifth starter until the season’s tenth game, April 13th against the White Sox.

That would also allow Francona to carry an extra bullpen arm for the first week and a half of the season.

Centerfield got a little clearer when Oscar Mercado was sent to the alternative site, leaving Bradley Zimmer, non-roster invitee Ben Gamel, and converted infielder Amed Rosario vying for playing time or to make the roster.

Also, Jordan Luplow has started playing in the Cactus League games, and yesterday started in center.

The front office has to be pulling for Zimmer, a former first round pick. To date, and he has faced pretty experienced pitching, he is 9 for 30, with five walks. He has fanned nine times, which is his biggest issue, not putting the ball in play.

The veteran Gamel, a left-handed hitter like Zimmer, is 7 for 31 (.226). It would seem to be tough for him to beat out Zimmer. Rosario, who would seem to be a platoon option with either Zimmer or Gamel, is 8 for 24 on the spring, and would seem to have a roster spot locked up.

Luplow, who has crushed left-handed pitching since joining the Indians would seem to give Francona, another option in CF, if he wants to give Andres Gimenez a day off against a tough lefty, or an option in RF, should he want to do the same with Josh Naylor.

It is difficult to think the Indians will keep six outfielders, another reason it could be tough for Gamel to hold down a spot.

And don’t forget Harold Ramirez (3 for 18), another right-handed bat, and could be in play as well.

Our prediction here? Zimmer will get the nod against righties, with A. Rosario playing the middle of the outfield vs. southpaws. The possible complication? Cleveland opens in Detroit, and Comerica Park has a huge outfield. Francona might favor defense in the Motor City.

Tribe Pitching: Talented, But Lack Experience.

Last week, we took a look at the questions regarding the everyday players for the Cleveland Indians, a group that ranked 13th in the AL in runs scored and has substracted Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana.

This week, we look at the team’s strength, the pitching staff, which led the league in ERA in the shortened 2020 season, led by Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber. Still, there are questions for the Indians on the pitching mound.

Really, when you think about it, why shouldn’t there be? In the past two seasons, the front office has traded Cy Young Award winners Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer, as well as Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger. That the Tribe still has a solid staff speaks to the way the organization develops pitching.

Outside of Bieber, the most innings thrown in the big leagues by the candidates to join him in the rotation are the 217 thrown by Adam Plutko, who if he makes the team out of spring training will likely be either the fifth starter or working out of the bullpen.

The other spots behind Bieber figure to be Zach Plesac (171 big league innings), Aaron Civale (131), Triston McKenzie (31), and Cal Quantrill (135). That’s a lot of inexperience. None of that quartet have pitched the number of innings a regular rotation starter throws in a normal 162 game schedule.

While we like Plesac a lot, and McKenzie and Quantrill have electric stuff, we do have concerns about Civale, who faded last season after a complete game win over Pittsburgh. In his last 40 innings in 2020, he gave up 28 earned runs, a 6.30 ERA.

They do have some depth in this area, but it is young, unproven depth. Left-hander Logan Allen, who came over in the Bauer deal in ’19, has had a couple of cups of coffee in the bigs, but has thrown just 38 innings with a 5.40 ERA. He will be 24 in May.

Another lefty who came in that deal, 26-year-old Scott Moss, has yet to make his debut, and has only four AAA starts, but did have a 2.96 ERA for three teams in 2019. And yet another southpaw is Sam Hentges, who suffered through a 2-13, 5.11 ERA at Akron in 2019, but is well regarded by the organization.

You also have righty Eli Morgan, 24, who had a 3.39 ERA across three levels in 2019, making one AAA start.

Our bet is Plutko opens the season as the fifth starter, with McKenzie. Moss, and Allen getting some starts in Columbus to open the year. Plutko is out of options, so this delays the decision the organization has to make on him.

In the bullpen, closer Brad Hand left via free agency, so it appears James Karinchak will assume that role in 2021. The rookie fanned 53 in 27 innings in 2020, and even earned his first big league save. He did walk 16, but when he can throw strikes, he is basically unhittable.

A PED suspension in spring training did not allow us to see the other young Tribe arm with electric stuff out of the bullpen in Emmanuel Clase. The right-hander had a 2.31 ERA with Texas in 2019, and reportedly throws a 100 MPH cutter. Frankie Lindor said he was nasty when the Indians faced the Rangers in ’19.

The rest of the bullpen will include veteran reliable Nick Wittgren, Cam Hill, Phil Maton, and perhaps some of the guys who don’t make the rotation.

Wittgren has pitched to a 2.99 ERA in two years with 88 strikeouts in 81 innings with the Indians. Hill was solid as a rookie in ’20, although he ended the year with a couple of rocky outings, and Maton became Sandy Alomar’s go to guy late in the season, and probably got overused.

There is also Kyle Nelson, a rookie lefty who made just one bad appearance a year ago, but has fanned 176 hitters in 122 minor league innings.

We would like to see the organization bring in one more veteran arm (we always like Tijuan Walker), to take some pressure off of the youngsters.

We know that won’t happen because of the financial limitations the ownership has put on the front office.

The rotation could be among the league’s best, but there are a lot of questions in terms of experience. That’s a big worry for us in evaluating the 2021 Cleveland Indians.

Looking At A Possible 50 Man Roster For The Tribe.

There has been a lot of discussion of what rosters for major league baseball teams will look like if a season gets underway in early July.

The most common model has been a 50 man pool in which each team can choose from, and a 30 player active roster for each game.

If that is the case, how do the Cleveland Indians make up the 50 players who will be eligible for this season?

You would presume the normal 40 man roster would be part of this equation, but in looking at the Tribe’s situation, that would mean you would have to make room for a third catcher (neither Beau Taylor or Cameron Rupp are currently on the 40 man), and neither is utility man Mike Freeman.

Another possible hurdle for the Indians is that only one of their Top 10 Prospects, RHP Triston McKenzie, is currently on the 40 man roster. So, if the extra ten spots were being used for prospects, nine of them are already filled.

There is some normal jostling of the 40 man roster coming out of spring training anyway, so some of these moves would have had to be made anyway. For example, Freeman would have probably made the team anyway, necessitating a move to the 40 man roster.

Does this mean the Indians will take the remaining nine top prospects, plus a third catcher as the ten extra men who can travel with the squad this season?

The Tribe’s prospect list is very young, so while they would love for those players not to miss a year of development, the only players who might be able to help the big league team this season are Nolan Jones and Tyler Freeman, and the latter has never played above the high A level.

Of prospects #11-#20 (we are using Baseball America’s list), many of those players are on the 40 man roster already: #11 Logan Allen, #12 Bobby Bradley, #13 Scott Moss, #15 Emmanuel Clase, #16 James Karinchak, and #17 Sam Hentges.

Karinchak figured to make the Opening Day roster anyway.

That would seem to leave these players needing a place to develop in 2020: #14 RHP Carlos Vargas (highest level Mahoning Valley), #18 RHP Luis Oviedo (Lake County), #19 SS Yordys Valdes (Arizona Rookie League), and #20 SS Angel Martinez (Dominican Rookie League).

We would think most big league club will have extended spring training going for these younger players with intrasquad games to provide competition.

Since the Indians share their Goodyear, Arizona facility with the Reds, our guess is those two organizations’ prospects will be very familiar with each other by the end of the summer.

The Indians could make more room on the proposed 50 man squad by sending some of their younger players in the top ten to their complex as well.

We are talking about players like last year’s first round pick RHP Daniel Espino (#6), RHP Ethan Hankins (#8), SS Gabriel Rodriguez (#10) and perhaps even OF George Valera (#4), SS Brayan Rocchio (#5), and 2B Aaron Brocho (#9).

The key there is will the sport allow these younger players to have access to the spring training facilities. Although if there is a season, we don’t see why that would not be allowed.

Usually, you can look at the 40 man roster, and see some candidates to be let go, but we don’t believe the Indians have players like that who could sneak through waivers and remain part of the organization.

Maybe a player like RHP Jean Carlos Mejia, who at 23 has never pitched above the High Class A level, but the other candidates would be INF Christian Arroyo, who the Indians traded for a year ago and was a top prospect beset by injuries, Yu Chang, or players like Greg Allen and/or Bradley Zimmer, and it would be a shock if the organization moved on from them.

If the players and owners can agree to a system that works for this year, it will certainly be different from the norm, but the strategy of organizations will be interesting.

How the Indians react will no doubt be discussed at large when the decisions are made.