Nine Games To Settle The Central.

In about a week we should have a pretty good idea about whether or not the Cleveland Guardians will win the American League Central Division and qualify for the post season.

Starting with tonight’s make up game with the White Sox, the Guards will play nine straight contests against Chicago and Minnesota, the two teams battling them for the division title.

The magic number going into the single game against the Pale Hose is 18, as Cleveland leads Chicago by three and the Twins by five. The Guardians and Twins have 21 games left, while the Sox have 19.

Also important is their no longer is a tie breaking game to qualify for the playoffs. If their is a tie in the standings, the season series is the determining factor and Terry Francona’s squad needs just one victory against each of these two teams to get that edge.

After a 10 game stretch against Seattle and Baltimore where the club went 2-8 and tallied just 16 runs, the Guardians have roared back by winning eight of nine, including a huge sweep of Minnesota at Target Field.

The starting pitching and the back end of the bullpen have been tremendous in this stretch, with the rotation providing 51-2/3 innings allowing just 13 earned runs, a 2.26 ERA, and that includes rookie Konnor Pilkington allowing four runs in five frames on Monday against the Angels.

Remember, Pilkington is filling in for injured starters Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale.

The bullpen, led by Emmanuel Clase (Death. Taxes. Clase), James Karinchak, and Trevor Stephan have simply dominated opponents in this stretch, and really we should also include southpaw Sam Hentges in this group as well.

Clase had a rare bad outing against KC in the last game there, walking three hitters (one intentionally) and Karinchak allowed a two run homer after his hair products were called into question by Twins’ skipper Rocco Baldelli in Minneapolis.

Stephan has allowed four earned runs since August 1st, and overall this year, has struck out 72 batters in 56-2/3 innings, and has given up just three home runs. Hentges has given up just one runs since the end of July and he’s allowed three dingers on the season as well.

Overall, Cleveland relievers have pitched 467-1/3 innings with a 3.14 ERA and 47 home runs allowed. We hate to pick on Bryan Shaw, but if you remove his numbers from these statistics, the ERA drops to 2.81 and the long ball total is 39.

If this trend can continue, the balance of the schedule would seem to be in good hands.

Offensively, it would be nice if Jose Ramirez got on one of his hot streaks, but until then, rookie Oscar Gonzalez has been doing the job.

Gonzalez has hit four homers in September, slugging .596 and even walking four times this month (he’s only walked 12 times since his call up). His three run homer in the first inning in Minnesota got Cleveland off to a good start, and another homer Tuesday vs. Los Angeles was the difference in the game.

Remember, since they have the division lead, going 4-5 or 5-4 in these nine games is perfectly fine, it just takes the nine games off the schedule.

Let’s hope the pitching continues as it has over the last week or so and the hitting provides just enough runs.

Our Guardians’ Bullpen Confidence

One of the things about the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen is outside of Emmanuel Clase, the group has kind of been in a state of flux all season.

Clase has been remarkable since the first two weeks of the season, and showed the entire baseball world how great he has been in the All-Star Game, when he struck out the side against the National League on ten pitches, earning the save for the AL.

The right-hander has allowed just 23 hits and six walks in 43 appearances this season, compiling 21 saves and a 1.31 ERA. However, the way Terry Francona and Carl Willis has gotten to Clase has changed a bit.

Early in the season, the Guards used Nick Sandlin and Trevor Stephan to set up, and mixed in Anthony Gose when a lefty was needed.

We should also mention there has been another constant, using Bryan Shaw in any role other than as the closer.

Gose proved to be prone to walks (14 in 21 innings) and the home run ball (he’s allowed four) and so Sam Hentges, who struggles with command too, started to be used in his place, but recently, Hentges hasn’t received a lot of work.

Sandlin couldn’t find the plate and Eli Morgan emerged as “a weapon” as Francona called him, able to work multiple innings. But he too as found a need to adjust as he’s allowed 11 earned runs in his last 15 innings.

Stephan had a rough stretch, but recently seems to have straightened himself out, and probably is back to being the pitcher of choice in the 8th inning of a close game.

Enyel De Los Santos is a guy who seems to be underused. He’s really had just two bad outing all season, and overall has a 2.87 ERA with 36 whiffs and 11 walks in 31-1/3 innings. There are times the skipper goes to Shaw, when De Los Santos would seem to be a better choice.

The Guards are also working back in James Karinchak, who missed most of the season, but in seven appearances totaling 8-2/3 innings, has struck out 16 and walked four. In his last five games, he hasn’t allowed a run in 6-2/3 frames. giving up three hits and fanning 13.

Based on all of the information currently at hand, here are our bullpen confidence ratings right now:

Clase (that goes without saying)
Stephan
De Los Santos
Sandlin
Hentges
Shaw
Karinchak
Morgan

This list is very fluid to say the least. We’d like to rank Karinchak higher, but you never know when he’s going to lose control. If he can demonstrate he can find the strike zone consistently, he’d be right there with Stephan.

And as good as Morgan was early in the year, right now, we would avoid using him in a close game. Maybe we will move him up if he can put up more zeroes.

Hentges seems to walk (or at least fall behind) the first hitter when he comes in the game and Shaw is prone to the long ball and the walk, two no-no’s for relief pitchers.

We guess what we are really saying is it would be nice if the front office got an extra arm for the bullpen by the trade deadline. Right?

Schedule Or Not, Guards’ Pitching Has Improved

A few weeks ago, we talked about what figured to be the Cleveland Guardians’ strength coming into the season, the pitching staff, wasn’t pulling its own weight, ranking near the bottom of the American League in ERA.

Things have taken a decided turn for the good for the Cleveland hurlers, as they have seen that ranking moved to 6th in the AL. Surprisingly, they are not doing it with the strikeout, as Guards’ pitchers are just ninth in the Junior Circuit in strikeouts per nine innings.

They are third from the bottom in total whiffs, but that has more to do with Terry Francona’s club playing at least three games less than every other team in the league.

They’ve allowed the third fewest hits per nine, behind only the Yankees and Astros, so there could be concern about how sustainable that is considering the lack of strikeouts.

New York is near the top of the league in whiffs per nine, while Houston averages the same as Cleveland.

In terms of issuing free passes, Carl Willis’ staff is right around league average, so nothing unusual there.

However, in the last 15 games, Cleveland pitchers have allowed more than four runs just twice, most recently, Saturday’s loss to Baltimore, and to take it back further, in the last 23 games, opponents have hit the five-run mark against the Guardians just four times.

The two most disappointing members of the rotation earlier this season were Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale. Plesac has two runs or less in three of his last four starts, and Civale has started only one game since May 13th, and it was a 6-1/3 inning, one run allowed (unearned) effort against Detroit.

Rookie left-hander Konnor Pilkington has subbed in with three starts and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in either of them.

We would be remiss if we didn’t mention the only above league average offense Cleveland faced in the last 15 games is Houston. The Tigers are the league’s worst offense, while the Orioles and Royals both rank in the bottom five in the AL in scoring.

There do seem to be changes afoot in the bullpen. Trevor Stephan has been struggling in his last few outings and Nick Sandlin has had issues throwing strikes all season, walking 15 batters in 15 innings.

So Francona has leaned more on Eli Morgan, a starter last season, and he has been more than impressive. Morgan started the year on the roster to be able to give the team innings because starters were still stretching out from the shortened spring training.

The 26-year-old righty has pitched 25 innings, allowing just 10 hits with only four walks against 32 strikeouts. He’s getting more and more opportunities in the seventh and eighth innings.

The same is true with southpaw Sam Hentges, who has thrown 16-1/3 frames, giving up just eight hits and four walks against 19 strikeouts. He has supplanted Anthony Gose as the late inning lefty.

Enyel De Los Santos has also worked his way into more high leverage situations as well.

If the club can get both Stephan and Sandlin straightened out, this has the makings of a very good bullpen.

If the pitching can keep this going, the Guardians can stay in the post-season race. Hopefully, the last group of games is more indicative of how good the staff can be.