Baker Deserves The Benefit Of The Doubt, But Still A Big Year For Him

There is no question that the Cleveland Browns were a disjointed mess in 2019. If you think of them as a jigsaw puzzle, there were just too many pieces that were either missing or didn’t fit together.

It didn’t seem like the offensive coordinator fit with the head coach, and the general manager traded for an elite wide receiver for a group which had success running the football during the second half of the 2018 schedule.

Because of inexperience or perhaps star worship, head coach Freddie Kitchens and offensive coordinator seemed to feel obligated to force the ball to Odell Beckham Jr., and as a result the Browns got away from the things that led to a solid finish the year before.

All of this contributed to second year quarterback Baker Mayfield taking a step backwards.

The former first overall pick in ’19 saw his completion percentage drop (63.8% to 59.4%), his yards per passing attempt diminish (7.7 to 7.2), and his interception rate increase from 2.9% to 3.9%.

Not exactly what you want to see in terms of growth from your supposed franchise quarterback.

Did Mayfield prepare his body for the rigors of an NFL season during his first off-season? We believe he would admit (and has) he should have worked harder.

Did he let his success as a rookie go to his head a bit? Look, part of the reason John Dorsey chose him first overall was his self-confidence, so without question, he likely felt pretty good about himself after leading the Browns to their best record since 2007 as a rook.

This season, the chaos surrounding the team seems to be gone. Expectations has been tempered by last year’s disappointing 6-10 record, and new coach Kevin Stefanski seems more like a CEO than a football coach.

Stefanski came from Minnesota, where they loved to run the football (4th most attempts in the NFL in 2019) and so we would anticipate the emphasis in Cleveland will be establishing the run, much like it was in Mayfield’s first season.

That reliance on the ground game doesn’t mean Mayfield isn’t a “franchise” quarterback either. The Seahawks ran the ball the third most times in the league a year ago and no one thinks Russell Wilson is just along for the ride.

So, while some fans and media members have written off Mayfield as the future for the Browns, we chalk up his performance as a by product of the mess surrounding him last season.

The offense was different and you can’t tell us everyone in the organization felt pressure to force the ball to the shiny new toy that was Beckham. We think you could feel it from the moment the season kicked off in Cleveland against the Titans.

However, there is no question this is a huge year for the third year passer. A season that looked more like 2019 than 2018 will no doubt put question marks in the heads of the folks who run football operation in Berea. Andrew Berry didn’t draft him and Stefanski wasn’t given input on the choice either.

So, there is pressure on Mayfield to perform well this season, and without a normal training camp and even a half of pre-season play (probably the only action he would have seen), he is at a slight disadvantage.

But it seems the things the new coaching staff want to do offensively should emphasize the quarterback’s skill set. And certainly, the talent the Browns have accumulated helps immensely.

We are willing to write off last season as a result of the dysfunction within the building for Baker Mayfield. He won’t have that benefit this season. He has to produce.

Passing League? Browns Should Emphasize The Run.

It has been well documented over the past decade or so that the NFL is a passing league.

The game has been dominated by Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and more recently Patrick Mahomes, and their expertise in finding open receivers down the gridiron.

However, is the pendulum starting to swing back to the running game? And if so, is that another reason the Browns made the correct hire in Kevin Stefanski, and will he be able to maximize the talents of Nick Chubb (second in the NFL in rushing last season) and Kareem Hunt (former NFL rushing champion)?

Let’s look at the best running teams in the league last year–

Baltimore (14-2)
San Francisco (13-3, and Super Bowl participant)
Tennessee (9-7, played in AFC Championship Game)
Seattle (11-5)
Dallas (8-8)
Minnesota (10-6)
Indianapolis (7-9)
Buffalo (10-6)
Houston (10-6)
Arizona (5-10-1)

That’s seven of the 12 teams that advanced to the playoffs a year ago, and eight of the top ten had non-losing records.

Now, let’s look at the five worst running teams in the NFL:

1. Miami (5-11)
2. New York Jets (7-9)
3. Atlanta (7-9)
4. Pittsburgh (8-8)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (5-11)

No winning teams. Now, we understand some people will say those teams were behind a lot and so they were forced to throw the football, and that is true to some extent.

However, so is a statement made many, many years ago–If you can’t run the ball, and you can’t stop the run, it is difficult to win in the National Football League.

One of the things that didn’t make sense with the Browns’ offense a year ago, is they ranked fifth in the league in yards per rushing attempt, which makes sense since Chubb is on their roster.

Unfortunately, Cleveland ranked 22nd in the league in trying to run the ball. Remember, Hunt was active for the second half of the year, meaning coach Freddie Kitchens and offensive coordinator Todd Monken had two elite runners at their disposal.

So, the many fans who railed week in and week out about the ignorance of the running game were smarter than the people who were actually making decisions on a weekly basis.

Enter Stefanski. Notice the team he was the offensive coordinator for in 2019, the Vikings, ranked 6th in the NFL in rushing yardage, and also ranked fourth in rushing attempts.

Any questions on what will be the focus of the Browns’ offense this upcoming season?

The Browns ranked 19th in passing attempts last season, despite their 29th ranking in passing efficiency. Minnesota had the 6th best efficiency rating, but only two teams, Tennessee and Baltimore, threw the ball less often.

The only possible problem is Stefanski’s inexperience as a head coach, so you have to question will he give in to the constant carping from his wide receivers and outside the building to air it out and get the ball in the hands of Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry.

Our guess is Stefanski is already selling his receivers on the additional big plays they can make after establishing a run game. Would they rather catch seven passes for 85 yards or catch five for 120 yards, or something to that effect?

Baker Mayfield looked very good in the play-action game in his rookie year, and we bet Stefanski will put that skill to good use this fall.

As for stopping the run? That’s something new defensive coordinator Joe Woods has to work on. The Browns were third worst in the NFL a year ago, and if you can’t put opponents in unfavorable down and distance situations, your best players (Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward) can’t do what they do best.

Mayfield’s Problems In ’19 Based In Browns’ Dysfunction?

It is amazing to us that so many people have soured on Browns’ QB Baker Mayfield. At this time last year, he was the toast of the town in Cleveland, setting the record for touchdown passes by a rookie.

He was brash, cocky, and he won games. Cleveland went 6-7 in his starts, and while that’s not even above .500, when the team won a single game in the previous two seasons, you appreciate it.

Many of the fans who now want to replace Mayfield at the position also are highly critical of Freddie Kitchens, which doesn’t make sense to us.

If you think Kitchens was a terrible head coach, then doesn’t it follow he adversely affected the quarterback as well?

We said early in the 2019 campaign that it did not appear the Browns were running the same offense that was so successful in 2018 after Kitchens became the offensive coordinator.

Cleveland ranked 15th in the NFL in rushing attempts during the 2018 season, they ranked 22nd last year. In ’18, the Browns ranked 11th in yards per attempt at 4.6, and last year, they were even better at 4.8, ranking fifth in the NFL.

When Gregg Williams took over for Hue Jackson, and Kitchens inherited the OC job from the dismissed Todd Haley, the Browns became a running team, and they were successful. Mayfield benefited from this and played off the success of the running game.

But when Kitchens took over, and GM John Dorsey hired Todd Monken as offensive coordinator, the Browns got away from what allowed them to win in the second half of the 2018 season.

It didn’t help that Dorsey traded for Odell Beckham Jr. which influenced both the head coach and the OC to emphasize the passing game even more.

When you talk about the dysfunction of the Browns’ franchise, this should be presented as Exhibit A. Stop doing something that worked because the GM wanted to make a big splash, and the head coach and offensive coordinator felt obligated to the GM.

As stated previously, you could see it early in the season last year. Receivers were running downfield patterns with no outlet for Mayfield, and the offensive line wasn’t strong enough to block for those longer routes.

Mayfield ranked 13th in the NFL last year in intended air yards per pass attempt, while Kirk Cousins, running Kevin Stefanski’s offense in Minnesota, ranked 25th.

Although Mayfield ranked 5th in this category in ’18, his completed pass yards per attempt dropped from the year before, and the number of times he was sacked increased from 25 in 2018 (in 14 games) to 40 last season.

To us, it’s because the offensive line couldn’t hold up for the longer routes without the play action. And the play action worked better because the Browns became a running team when Williams and Kitchens took over.

Last season, teams knew Cleveland was going to try to throw first, and run second.

Enter new head coach Kevin Stefanski, and a front office which right now seems like they want to maximize the things this team can do best.

Under Stefanski, Kirk Cousins had his highest passer rating of his career and the lowest interception rate of his career.

He also threw the least passes per game since he became a starter in 2019.

That’s because the Vikings were 4th in rushing attempts (behind Baltimore, San Francisco, and Seattle) and 6th in rushing yards (adding to those teams Dallas and Tennessee).

Coincidentally, the Browns have the second leading rusher in the league in Nick Chubb, and a former NFL rushing champion in Kareem Hunt.

Guess what the Browns are going to do this year?

If Mayfield can’t be at top efficiency this season, then the Browns may need to be on the lookout for a new QB come next year’s draft. It’s all set up for him to succeed.

Odd Reasons To Doubt Mayfield

Cleveland sports fans are sometimes a different breed. Especially when it comes to the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns are quite frankly, one of the worst franchises in professional sports when it comes wins and losses. They haven’t made a playoff appearance since 2002, haven’t won a playoff game since 1994, and have had just two winning seasons since then as well.

We know, if you are reading this, that you know this too, but it is a huge reason for the skepticism and doubt surrounding the franchise.

Why would you trust anyone in Berea, especially after 2019, when it looked like the Browns were poised for a playoff berth after a promising second half in 2018, and a trade for Odell Beckham Jr. signaled the organization was all in.

Unfortunately, a brutal early schedule got the team in a bad direction to start, and Freddie Kitchens didn’t know how to handle the situation.

It seems the current angst among Browns’ fans and media alike is directed toward Baker Mayfield, who you may recall was the toast of the town a year ago at this time.

What is weird is the mixed message you get from the Baker detractors.

For example, if Kitchens was as over his head as everyone believes and there was a conflict between the head coach and offensive coordinator Todd Monken, wouldn’t that be reason enough for the second year QB’s struggles?

There is no question we did not see the Mayfield who set an NFL for most touchdown passes as a rookie in 2019. The only statistic he improved upon last season was yards/completion.

He had a lower completion percentage, more interceptions, lower yards passing per contest, and a lower passer rating than his first season in brown and orange.

We still insist it was a different offensive system than in 2018, and this version did not incorporate what Mayfield does well, which was being very accurate.

Too many times in long yardage situations, there did not appear to be a short route available to the quarterback, so he was forced to either take a sack, or force the ball to a receiver that wasn’t open.

Also, in spite of the Pro Football Focus rankings that had the Browns’ offensive line ranked in the middle of the pack, the eye test says they were a below average group, particularly on the outside.

You could see Mayfield being skittish in the pocket if the receiver didn’t break open right away, worried that he was going to take a hit. He needs more confidence in his linemen, particularly his left and right tackles.

This will be addressed before next training camp begins.

The other weird reaction to Mayfield’s second season as Cleveland’s signal caller are the folks who worshiped former GM John Dorsey.

If Dorsey was the man, don’t you trust the player he picked first overall in 2018? He’s the guy who looked at all the passers picked in the first round and decided the best player was Baker Mayfield.

Keep that thought in mind. Dorsey wasn’t a perfect as many made him to be, but he does have an eye for talent, and he chose Mayfield. Shouldn’t that count for something?

The guess here is the Browns have their quarterback of the future and his name is Baker Mayfield.

He had a large dose of reality in his second season and we think with better guidance provided by Kevin Stefanski and new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, he will look more like the guy who we saw in 2018.

This is a big season for Mayfield. Our guess is he will be ready.

What Browns Need To Do Tonight. Besides Win

Tonight is another big test for the Cleveland Browns, as they take on Pittsburgh in a nationally televised tilt.

When you start out 2-6, virtually every game is a big test, unless you want your flickering playoff hopes extinguished.

There is no question the Browns’ playoff hopes are slim, but in our opinion, the last team in the post-season in the AFC will likely have a 9-7 record, so if Freddie Kitchens’ squad can go 6-1 here on out, and the schedule is favorable, although it is minimal, Cleveland still has life.

How do they do it?

The simple answer is to continue to play turnover free football, and that depends a lot on Baker Mayfield, who over the past three games has hit on 73 of 111 passes (65.8%) with four TD throws and just one interception.

By the quarterback rating system, two of Mayfield’s three best games have come in the last two weeks. That’s why the growing criticism of the second year pro is puzzling to us.

The Steelers live on turnovers. They rank second in the NFL to New England is causing them, and if you remember when the Browns played the Patriots, the Cleveland turnovers early (three in the first quarter) dug a trench the brown and orange could not get out of.

Pittsburgh ranks 11th in total defense, 10th against the pass and 14th vs. the run. The Browns rank 15th in rushing offense, but second in average yards per attempt, so starting the game showing you can run the ball would be beneficial to Cleveland.

However, what that statistic means is Kitchens and offensive coordinator Todd Monken have been reticent to running the ball, which is another problem altogether, particularly now with both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt available.

Offensively, the Steelers are challenged without their two time Super Bowl winning quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. They are 6th from the bottom of the NFL in passing yards and 14th in running the ball.

They rank right around the middle in the league in turning the ball over, but the Browns have been woeful in that category ranking fifth worst in the NFL with just nine in the first nine games.

They intercepted just four passes for the season.

Pittsburgh is an opportunistic football team, so not to be redundant, the Browns must limit their opportunities, and that means being careful with the football, which could be difficult on a frigid night.

Unfortunately, these Browns haven’t been the most patient of teams in terms of taking what defenses give them, although they have improved over the past two games.

Mayfield is aggressive by nature, and Kitchens seems to like using exotic motions and plays at seemingly the wrong time. Both tendencies need to be stifled this week, as the conservative approach is needed.

The Steelers are 3rd in the NFL in sacking the QB, and we know the Browns offensive line isn’t the most solid unit on the team. So, a good strategy might be the throw on early downs and set up shorter yardage situations on second and third down.

The good news for the Browns is although the Steelmen have a very good defense, Cleveland has already faced five defense statistically better in New England (1st in total yardage), San Francisco (2nd), Buffalo (3rd), Denver (4th), and the Rams (10th).

That’s right. The Browns have faced the top four defenses in the NFL through the first nine games.

There can be no patting themselves on the back after last Sunday’s win over the Bills. This will be another tough affair for Freddie Kitchens and his football team.

Holding onto the ball and not allowing big plays could be the determining factor tonight.

Browns Need To Return To ’18 Formula

Penalties and turnovers. That’s the mantra of Browns’ coach Freddie Kitchens in terms of what needs to improve if Cleveland wants to start winning football games again.

We certainly feel the number of pre-snap penalties has to be eliminated, you simply cannot have two players in motion, jumping offsides, and we will add the inordinate amount of illegal linemen downfield and expect to win in the NFL.

We spoke a couple of weeks ago about “zero defects”, and that’s what the Browns should be striving for.

The turnovers are quite a contrast to 2018, though. Last year, Cleveland won the turnover battle on the season at +7, causing 31 turnovers, almost two per game.

This year, it’s just the opposite, with the Browns being a minus nine. That’s a 16 turnover swing, and a good reason the team is struggling at 2-5.

Moreover, the offense just looks different, and we would have to question the hiring of Todd Monken as offensive coordinator because in our opinion, his “system” doesn’t fit the skill set of the personnel, particular Baker Mayfield.

When he was the OC at Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers had the most interceptions in the NFL a year ago, and ranked 20th and 27th in his other two seasons.

Perhaps his offense is high risk, high reward?

We found something else interesting about the passing game between 2018 and 2019, and that is the number of receivers being involved.

Last season, the Browns had five receivers that averaged 2.5 catches per game: Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, Rashard Higgins, Duke Johnson, and Antonio Callaway.

This season, that number has dropped to three: Odell Beckham Jr., Landry, and Nick Chubb. Part of what made Mayfield special in his rookie season was his ability to spread the ball around.

That doesn’t seem to be the case in 2019. Perhaps he feels obligated to get the ball to the All Pro Beckham as some have suggested. Or maybe the coaching staff is telling Mayfield to make a concerted effort to get the ball to the playmakers.

Either way, we would just like to see a return to a year ago.

The closest performance to the offense run last season with Kitchens as the coordinator was the Baltimore game, and surprise, surprise, the Browns put up 40 points, 30% of their season total.

That day, Mayfield hit seven different receivers, and completed 20 of 30 passes for 342 yards with a touchdown and an interception.

Five different receivers caught two or more throws, led by Landry’s eight for 167 yards.

It is by far Mayfield’s best game of the year, finishing with a 102.4 passer rating (a stat we hate, by the way). His next best game was vs. the Jets (83.6 rating).

Another thing we have noticed in the former Heisman Trophy winner’s game this year is his reluctance to pull the ball down and run. While he’s never going to be Lamar Jackson, last year Mayfield had 39 carries in his 14 games.

This year? Just 9 runs in the 7 games. Sometimes, it’s better to step up in the pocket and gain 2-3 yards than to take a sack or throw the ball away.

Last season, Mayfield looked very decisive, this year, he looks confused. Perhaps it’s a new system, maybe not.

Whatever the reason, it’s time to get back to basics and it starts this Sunday in Denver.

The Browns should treat this as a new beginning.

Good News…Browns Have Improved Each Week

To say the Cleveland Browns have disappointed their fan base would be an understatement.

Of course, after two seasons with a combined 1-31 record, last year’s 7-8-1 finish would compare to another franchise going 14-2 during the regular season.

And after GM John Dorsey traded for Odell Beckham Jr., the supporters of the Browns around northeast Ohio and all across the country had visions of a 12-4 or better record for the 2019 season.

So, the start after three games, with a 1-2 record, has greeted them like a bucket of ice water dumped over their collective heads.

No doubt, it has been a shock.

On the other hand, if you are a fan who didn’t allow visions of a Super Bowl dance in your head, then the performance of Freddie Kitchens and his football team is, although not satisfying, understandable.

In looking at the first three games of the season, the Browns are guilty of playing one horrible quarter, the fourth in the season lidlifter against the Titans.

Other than that, they’ve played okay. Not the above average brand of football many expected (including us), so there is certainly a lot of room for improvement.

Baker Mayfield hasn’t played to the level he showed in the second half of the 2018 season, and he appears to be indecisive, which could be an indication of running a different offense from a year ago.

This was illustrated to us in the fourth quarter of Sunday night’s game vs. the Rams when on a third and long inside the Browns’ own five, Mayfield was sacked by Clay Matthews III.

There was no outlet receiver for the quarterback. All of the targets streaked down the field, 20 yards from the line of scrimmage. There was no option to avoid the sack, outside of heaving the ball downfield and risking an interception.

This leads us to think there is more of the offense Todd Monken used last year in Tampa and less of what was successful for Cleveland when Kitchens was the offensive coordinator.

There is no question Mayfield plays better when he throws quickly, and also Beckham’s strength seems to be getting the ball on the move and his ability to run after the catch. So, why not do more of that?

We hope there was more than a discussion between Kitchens and Monken to do more of what Mayfield does well. After all, isn’t that the definition of coaching? Putting your players in positions where they have the best chance to succeed?

One thing that we think is for real is the Browns’ defense. Yes, the 43 points in the opener doesn’t look great, but 21 of them came in the last quarter with the Titans having a short field due to three interceptions.

Even with a totally new secondary against the Rams, they held the LA offense to just 20 points. And the Browns have a player offenses must account for in Myles Garrett, who has had a sack in all three games, and overall has six for the year.

John Dorsey added experienced depth in the secondary and it has paid off thus far. If that unit keeps improving and gets healthy, by the end of the year, it may very well be the strength of the team.

Because NFL teams play once a week, there is too much emotion involved in each game. If the Browns win this week at Baltimore, they will be tied for first in the division, and the optimism will no doubt be heightened.

Let’s all just take a deep breath.

Only Preseason, But Still Overreaction.

The pre-season in the NFL has become an out and out joke, but that hasn’t stopped fans from overreacting to the Cleveland Browns’ first loss in games that don’t count, last Friday at Tampa Bay.

One of the reasons it shouldn’t be taken too seriously is the intentions of the head coach’s toward these games.

For example, and we have no inside information here, let’s say Freddie Kitchens prepared his team one way and told his friend, Bruce Arians, now the head coach of the Buccaneers, to run some stuff the Browns haven’t seen in order to see how the players would react.

Maybe they agreed to do this to each other’s teams to gauge how the two teams would respond to some adversity.

We just don’t know.

Remember, there were some who were upset in the first game against the Redskins, when the Browns opened the game in the no huddle, hurry up offense.

We speculated then that Kitchens told Washington coach Jay Gruden he was going to do this, and offensive coordinator Todd Monken confirmed it a couple of days later.

This doesn’t mean the Browns don’t have issues on the offensive line or in the kicking game. It does mean the issues aren’t greater than they were before kickoff last Friday night.

It isn’t like it was 10 years ago, when the third pre-season game was the dress rehearsal game. Back then, the starters played pretty much the whole first quarter of the first game, about a half of the second, and three quarters of the third.

That’s not the case anymore.

Baker Mayfield played one series in the opener against Washington. He didn’t play at all in the second contest at Indianapolis. Most of the starters did the same.

Heck, Odell Beckham Jr. nor Jarvis Landry has stepped foot on the field of play through three exhibition (yes, we know the NFL doesn’t like them called that) games.

The preseason has become a series of glorified scrimmages, and many teams, including the Browns, have gone to organized practices against other teams where the action and hitting can be controlled.

Remember 2017 when the Browns went 0-16? They were 4-0 in the preseason. Hue Jackson was trying to win those games.

We heard Kitchens say if they are keeping score then he wants to win, but our guess is he’d be a lot more upset about a loss on September 8th than he is about the Tampa game.

Someone is going to win Thursday night in the game against Detroit, but it is likely no one of any importance to the 2019 Cleveland Browns will play in that game, and the same can be said of most NFL teams.

It’s time for the NFL to cut back to two games, and start playing them off-site, so season ticket holders don’t have to pay full price for them. Or, if you want to play a home game, give season ticket holders an option to buy them at a reduced price, and if they don’t sell them to the public at a lower price.

Maybe someone who can’t afford to go normally can get to see an NFL game in person.

As for the results, don’t get to concerned, because again, we don’t know what the opposing teams are trying to accomplish.

There will be plenty of time for concern when the regular season starts next week.