Could Brantley Be Tribe’s Breakout Player?

There is no question that interest in the Cleveland Indians may be at its highest level since the beginning of the 2008 season, just a few months after the Tribe came within one game of making the World Series, but were beaten out by the Red Sox, managed by a guy named Terry Francona.

Now Francona is here, the ownership and front office went out and signed free agents Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn, and Brett Myers, and traded for a potential ace starting pitcher in Trevor Bauer.

Fans can’t wait for the season opener on April 2nd in Toronto.

The improvement on the Cleveland roster can be noted in that out of the players who started for the Tribe last season and left, only Shin-Soo Choo is considered a key component on his new team. Jack Hannahan, Casey Kotchman, and Shelly Duncan are all considered either bench players or are on minor league contracts to start spring training.

The other big addition to this squad is speed and athleticism, something that was lacking in previous seasons, even going back to the Eric Wedge era. It is refreshing to hear Francona talk about his team taking extra bases on hits to the outfield. It doesn’t appear there will be much station to station baseball played by the Indians this season.

Francona compared his team to the Angels in the Mike Scoscia era, but when those teams scored a lot of runs, they depended on a lot of high batting averages. The Indians don’t have many players who have a history of hitting close to .300.

To be sure, there are concerns for the new skipper and his staff. There will be plenty of strikeouts in the starting lineup, meaning the offense could be very streaky at times. When the guys who don’t make contact consistently are in a period of whiffing, scoring runs could be very tough indeed.

As much as Swisher and Bourn will be important to the Indians scoring more runs, the bigger pressure is probably on the young hitters on the team making big leaps, meaning Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Carlos Santana. If all three of those players can start producing the way they did in the minor leagues, (remember Santana has the most service time of the three, just 2-1/2 seasons), the Indians could have a very potent offense.

However, the biggest jump to be made by any Indian this season could be by LF Michael Brantley.

It is easy to overlook Brantley because he has been here longer than any of the other three mentioned players, arriving in 2009 for the first time, and starting as a regular shortly after Santana in ’10. But Brantley is still just 25 years old, turning 26 in May. He won’t reach the magic 27-year-old season until 2014.

He has shown steady improvement over the last three years, with his on base percentage going from .296 in 2010 to .348 last year, and his slugging percentage rising from .327 three seasons ago to .402 in 2012. If he makes the same improvement on his OPS this year as he did from 2011 to 2012, he will be around 800, which would make him a very good offensive player.

“Dr. Smooth” had 47 extra base hits in ’12, 37 of them doubles. As a comparison, Asdrubal Cabrera had 52 extra base knocks in 2009, 42 of them doubles. Two years later, Cabrera got stronger and some of those doubles became home runs, as ACab belted 25 dingers in 2011.

As Brantley gets stronger with age, the same effect could happen to him as well, and some of those doubles could wind up flying over the fence. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Tribe’s new leftfielder wound up with 15 to 20 bombs this summer.

You have to love young players who get better every season and still are in the 25 to 26-year-old range. Michael Brantley is one of those players. His most comparable player through age 25 is OF Terry Moore, who starred for the Cardinals in the 1940’s.

At age 27, Moore hit .295 with 17 home runs and an OPS of 849. The following year, he hit .304 with 17 dingers and an OPS of 831.

If Brantley can follow suit, the Tribe has another very good bat in their lineup.

Based on the improvement he has shown since arriving in the big leagues, don’t bet against Brantley becoming that type of player.

Tribe Starting Pitchers Full of ?????

Earlier this week, the Cleveland Indians signed free agent CF Michael Bourn and fans were thrilled by another top free agent signing. It provided another hitter to help a team that finished 13th in the American League in runs scored.

However, that is only one part of the game because the Tribe finished last season dead last in the AL in ERA, and so far have added some relievers and one starting pitcher, Brett Myers, who spent last season pitching out of the bullpen, to improve the staff.

Is that enough?

This is not to criticize Myers, who has been an effective starter for many years in the big leagues, throwing over 180 innings six times in his career, every year but two that he has been in the rotation in the majors. Not only is he durable, he’s also been effective , with a lifetime 4.29 ERA as a starting pitcher.

Right now, any hope for improvement besides Myers rests on potential and the bounce back of several pitchers. That’s a cause for concern.

Justin Masterson may be the Opening Day starter, but he has been a regular starter with Cleveland for three years, of which one (2011–12-10 with a 3.21 ERA) was good, and the other two decidedly mediocre and inconsistent (17-28, 4.82 ERA).

Ubaldo Jimenez has been a huge mess since being acquired from Colorado at the ’11 trade deadline.

His mechanical issues are well documented, but his performance since becoming an Indian does nothing to inspire confidence that he will turn it around. His record with the Tribe is 13-21 with a 5.32 ERA. That should make him more of a candidate for the waiver wire than the cornerstone of a starting rotation.

There is no doubt he is the biggest key for Terry Francona’s team in 2013.

Carlos Carrasco provides hope because he showed some promise in 2011, his first full season in the big leagues. But he is recovering from Tommy John surgery, so he cannot be counted on to lead the rotation of a winning team.

Zack McAllister made 22 starts for Cleveland a year ago, and did a decent enough job, going 6-8 with a 4.24 ERA. The problem for him is the first stat listed, he’s only made 26 starts in his big league career.

Trevor Bauer is one of the game’s top prospects and dominated AAA last season, but he’s made just four major league starting appearances.

The Tribe also brought in some experienced major league arms in Daisuke Matsuzaka and Scott Kazmir, both fine pitchers at some point in the last five or six seasons. The former hasn’t had an ERA under 4.50 since 2008 when he enjoyed his best season in American baseball, going 18-3. 2.90.

That’s also the last good season for Kazmir, who pitched in an independent league last year. He was 12-8 with a 3.49 that year, but hasn’t been below4.89 in any season since.

That’s an awful large amount of ifs and maybes for a team that did a lot to strengthen his offense this winter.

GM Chris Antonetti did bolster the bullpen by obtaining Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw in the Shin-Soo Choo trade, inking Blake Wood, another pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery, and getting Matt Capps, a former closer with the Pirates, Nationals, and Twins.

While many consider the bullpen the bulwark of the team, it was only the pitchers Manny Acta used when the team had the lead: Joe Smith, Vinnie Pestano, and Chris Perez. The rest of the relief corp struggled to keep close games close. Too often, a starter left trailing 3-1, and soon it was 6-1.

Good teams play in the top half of their league in both runs scored and ERA. Last year, the Tribe finished second last and last in those categories.

They’ve improved the hitting attack this off-season, but the pitching is still shaky to say the least. If Carrasco comes back, McAllister picks up where he left off, and Bauer shows he is as good as his reputation, the Tribe can be formidable in 2013.

However, that’s an awful lot to have to go right. And right now, it’s too many question marks.

Did Tribe Help Offense Enough?

Unlike the past few seasons, the front office of the Cleveland Indians actually made some moves this off-season.

They traded arguably their best hitter, Shin-Soo Choo, because he was going to be a free agent after the 2013 season, and they turned him into top starting pitcher prospect Trevor Bauer, with OF Drew Stubbs thrown in the deal.

For a team that finished second last in the AL in runs scored, dealing your best hitter isn’t regarded as a smart thing, but GM Chris Antonetti did sign free agent Nick Swisher to replace Choo. So, what else did the GM do to help the offense?

He did sign free agent Mark Reynolds to play 1B to replace Casey Kotchman which is an improvement there. Of course, it would have been better for the Indians to sign pretty much anyone else to play the position because you can make the argument that Kotchman may have been the worst offensive player in the big leagues at that spot in 2012.

So, much of the improvement for Terry Francona’s squad will come from wishing and hoping. Some of that hope is merited and some is not.

On the positive side, Francona should get better seasons out of 2B Jason Kipnis (.335/.379/.714), Lonnie Chisenhall (.311/.430/.731), and Carlos Santana (.365/.420/.785).

Kipnis will be entering his second full year in the majors at age 26 and his career should be on an upswing. He will likely hit with more pop with experience and his slugging percentage should get into the .450 range with more doubles and homers. He’s a better hitter than the one who had just 40 extra base hits last season.

For perspective, Jack Hannahan had 20 extra base hits in half the at bats. Most people will agree that “the JK Kid” is a better hitter than Hannahan.

Chisenhall has been hurt by both injuries and former skipper Manny Acta’s love for Hannahan.

In 350 at bats lifetime, Chisenhall has 12 career homers. And as for his supposed lack of ability against southpaws, he has an OPS of almost 700 (696) against lefties and has hit five dingers in 88 career at bats.

For the record, 88 times at the plate is not a large enough samples to suggest he can’t hit left-handers.

Santana is entering his 27-year-old season, and he should be poised for a bounce back year after his OPS dropped below 800 for the first time in his career. His average for 162 games in his career is 24 HR, 83 RBI, and an 806 OPS.

Francona would gladly take those numbers.

However, as much as those guys figure to be better, Reynolds and Stubbs could be potential nightmares.

Reynolds had an 892 OPS in 2009, an outstanding figure and one that would make you overlook the 223 times he struck out that season. Since then, he’s had an OPS no higher than 806, and his batting average hasn’t been above .221.

He’s been pretty even over his career at home or on the road, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Reynolds hit in the .210 range, although with some long balls. If the rest of the lineup hits that’s fine, but here’s hoping fans aren’t expecting the guy who played in ’09.

Stubbs’ OPS has dropped from 773 in 2010, when he hit .255 with 22 homers to 686 in ’11 and down to 610 last year. As a comparison, Kotchman’s OPS last season was 612.

Stubbs is 28 years old so he should be in line for a bit of a bounce back season. But if he doesn’t, the alternatives are Ezequiel Carrera or rookies like Tim Fedroff, which may not be bad.

The point is this. The Indians have improved the offense, but is it enough to climb from 13th in the league in runs scored to the top half of the American League, which is where they need to be to contend.

That improvement will be more dependent on the progress of Santana, Kipnis, and Chisenhall, than on big seasons from Reynolds and Stubbs.

The starting rotation has similar questions.

Fans should be thrilled that the front office did a makeover on a team that has lost 90 games in three of the last four years. The question that has to be asked is: Did they do enough?