Tito’s Bullpen Usage is Troublesome

Indians’ manager Terry Francona likes to have a lot of options in his bullpen.

Because of the versatility of players like Mike Aviles, Ryan Raburn, and now, Lonnie Chisenhall, Francona likes to carry 13 pitchers on the roster, including eight relievers.

That’s fine, because the skipper would rather bring in a fresh arm at the end of games, than use a starter who is running out of gas after throwing around 100 pitches.

But there is a growing problem in the relief corps, because it is fairly obvious that Tito doesn’t trust three members of his bullpen crew, and that lack of trust is causing fatigue and possible ineffectiveness down the road for the guys he does trust.

Since we are just a little over 1/3 through the long baseball schedule, this has the potential for disaster.

Currently, there are four Cleveland relievers in the top four of the American League leaders in games pitched: lefty Mark Rzepczynski and Bryan Shaw are tied for the league lead, while Cody Allen is tied for third in the AL.

Recently deposed closer John Axford had been in the top ten for most of the season, but has recently dropped out, mostly because he is one of the pitchers who has left Francona’s “circle of trust”.

As a matter of comparison, Kansas City, Detroit, and Boston all have two pitchers in the top ten in appearances.

Rzepczynski isn’t a real big deal, because he’s a LOOGY (left-handed one out guy) and many of his appearances are to face one or two batters, like last night when he came in to get David Ortiz out.

However, the heavy use of Shaw and Allen will come with a price. Francona admitted after last night’s win over the Red Sox that he shouldn’t have used Shaw, who was in his third consecutive game, and has thrown close to 100 pitches over the last seven days.

To be fair, none of the three are averaging over an inning per appearance, but you have to figure in warming up as well. All of that takes a toll on a reliever’s arm.

The only other bullpen guys Francona seems to feel confident with are veteran right-hander Scott Atchison and another LOOGY, Josh Outman.

The former started the year as a kind of mop up man, but his effectiveness in that role has earned himself opportunities with the game on the line.

That leaves Axford, who has had difficulty throwing strikes (17 walks in 21-2/3 innings), Carlos Carrasco, sent to the ‘pen after struggling as a starter, and the revolving door guy (Mark Lowe, Nick Hagadone) sitting around collecting dust if the Indians are winning.

Granted many managers deploy the relief personnel the same way, using certain guys with a lead, the rest get used when losing, but Francona has used Allen and Shaw in close games with the Tribe losing, trying to keep them in the game.

Also, the length the starters are giving the skipper is not helping the situation. It would be one thing if the starting pitcher went into the seventh, so Tito could use Shaw one day and Allen the next, but many times he has to use both to put the contest in the victory column.

That’s why GM Chris Antonetti needs to get the manager more arms he can trust, or another starter who can pitch deep into games.

If it doesn’t happen soon, the bullpen, which has been a mainstay for the Indians over the past few years, will simply run out of gas, and the house of cards which is the Tribe pitching staff will completely implode.

Indians Have Rotation Woes

There is an old saying in baseball that when you think you have enough starting pitching, you go out and get more.

The Cleveland Indians didn’t heed that advice this off-season.

After last season, when the Tribe’s starting pitching was more than solid, Cleveland lost two starters to free agency: Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir. They really didn’t replace either last winter.

When the 2013 season started, GM Chris Antonetti had several alternatives for manager Terry Francona after signing Brett Myers as a free agent and getting Trevor Bauer in the Shin-Soo Choo deal.

The rotation to start the year was Justin Masterson, Jimenez, Myers, Zack McAllister and Kazmir. When the latter had a set back to start the season, they had Corey Kluber and Bauer in reserve at Columbus.

By the end of April, both had made starts in the majors as Myers injured his arm.

Later that season, Danny Salazar emerged as a factor based on his recovery from Tommy John surgery, and started the wild card game for the Indians.

This season, that depth hasn’t been there.

Salazar and Carlos Carrasco replaced the two free agents in the rotation, and the organization had Bauer and Josh Tomlin, also coming back from elbow surgery, in reserve.

Unfortunately, the two replacements (Salazar and Carrasco), both with little experience, haven’t done the job, and with Masterson and McAllister struggling, the rotation is in a state of chaos.

Thankfully, Tomlin has provided his usual performances, he’ll give you five or six good innings, and Bauer has done well in each of his two big league starts.

Salazar is back at AAA and was roughed up in his first start there, and Carrasco seems anchored to the bullpen as a long reliever/mop up man, so there aren’t any more alternatives for Francona unless some sort of trade is made.

Friday night, lefty T. J. House made his first major league start in an 8-4 loss to the Orioles. House did the best he could, but nobody in the organization had him making a start in the big leagues this season, we would bet.

It looks like the southpaw is in the rotation for the unforeseen future, as Cleveland has him listed as the starter Wednesday in Chicago. We would give that start to Carrasco, as crazy as we thought that seemed a couple of weeks ago.

Until Salazar can throw strikes consistently and keep the ball down in the zone (he’s allowed eight in 40 innings pitched this year), Francona and pitching coach Mickey Callaway don’t have a lot of alternatives. No one is going to trade you a proven starting pitcher.

If the Indians did have to get another starter from Columbus, it would likely be RHP Travis Banwart, a minor league free agent who was in the Oakland system in 2013. He’s 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA in AAA, allowing 40 walks in 50+ innings, striking out 38 hitters and walking 18.

The other starters at Columbus are RHP Tyler Cloyd, who has allowed 65 hits in 47-1/3 frames (yikes!), and major league washout Kyle Davies.

So, the only real alternative for the Tribe is to get Masterson and McAllister straightened out and get them pitching like they did in 2013. And Masterson’s drop in velocity is no doubt alarming for the front office.

If they improve, the Indians will have some starting depth back. Until then, Francona and Callaway are scrambling to find starters who can give them solid outings.

Not exactly a recipe for success if you want to make the post-season.

Not Many Solutions for Tribe Problems

The Cleveland Indians are struggling.

Optimistic people will tell you they are only 3-1/2 games out of a wild card spot, thanks to the bunched up American League standings, but watching them play tells you it doesn’t look like they can put together any kind of winning streak soon.

The defense is atrocious, the hitting is mostly weak, and right now, three of their starting pitchers have an ERA of over 5.00.

That isn’t exactly a recipe for success.

The past weekend series against Oakland can be set aside in this discussion because it could just be a matter of playing a team when they are red-hot, which the A’s are. Still, the Indians’ difficulties have been going on all season long.

Are their any solutions for GM Chris Antonetti and manager Terry Francona?

The simple answer is not really. The Tribe needs the veteran players with track records to start playing to those career numbers. Because there is no immediate help in the farm system and Antonetti isn’t the type of GM to make rash deals.

This lineup isn’t scoring runs and it probably isn’t going to as long as Carlos Santana bats .150 and Nick Swisher bats .200. Those two players have to get it going.

As for the people who want the latter out of here, Swisher has no trade value right now with the way he is hitting and playing defense, and his expensive contract.

One move Francona can make is to start moving Swisher off of first base where his defense has been terrible to be nice. Put Santana back at first, a position he is more familiar with, because perhaps learning a new position has affected the switch-hitter’s batting.

Getting Jason Kipnis back from the disabled list will no doubt help the hitting, although Mike Aviles has done a fine job at 2B in his absence. With Kipnis back, Aviles can go back to the part-time role he excels at.

After a hot start, he has slumped a bit, which is the norm for the veteran. He hits best in a limited role.

The Indians consider Jesus Aguilar a marginal prospect, but his right-handed bat is needed by the big club, which is overloaded in terms of guys who swing from the left side.

As for the pitching staff, Trevor Bauer is getting the start tonight, replacing Danny Salazar. However, Zack McAllister and Justin Masterson need to start pitching better as well.

The struggles of the starting rotation are definitely affecting the bullpen, which is starting to show signs of wear and tear.

If something happens to one of the starters, and Masterson is looking like a guy with a sore arm (loss of velocity and command), right now, Salazar is the only option, and he did not pitch well in his first AAA start.

Losing Scott Kazmir and Ubaldo Jimenez without replacing either one in the off-season has robbed the organization of its depth at starting pitcher.

So, there aren’t many alternatives except to play better. No one wants to hear that among the fans, but we can’t see any blockbuster deals on the horizon, mostly because the Tribe doesn’t have anyone with huge market value.

Asdrubal Cabrera is an above average major league shortstop and Francisco Lindor is Cleveland’s best prospect, but the former is a free agent at the end of this season, so you won’t get much in return.

If you deal anyone else, there isn’t a player to replace him.

That’s what happens when you don’t draft well for a decade.

So, Tribe fans have to hope the veterans get back to their usual levels or it will be a long summer.

Either way, it’s not the best scenario if you are a baseball fan in Cleveland.

Tribe Play, Moves Puzzling

There is no question the six game losing streak on the west coast trek for the Cleveland Indians turned a so-so month of April into a disappointing one. The Tribe left Cleveland at 11-11, a .500 record, and they returned home 11-17, and in last place.

More concerning to the media and the fans is the sloppy play of Terry Francona’s bunch. Using two of the major defensive statistics available, the Indians rank last in the American League in defense. They’ve made the most errors and they have the worst defensive efficiency.

Thank goodness Cleveland pitchers rank third in the league in strikeouts. The less balls put into play, the better.

Sometimes, the errors don’t allow runs to score, but they make pitchers have to throw more pitches. This was never more evident than Friday night, when Elliott Johnson’s error in the fourth inning made Danny Salazar throw at least 15 more tosses to home plate. Otherwise, Francona could’ve squeezed another inning out of the starter.

Along with the poor play, the front office has made some curious moves thus far, and we aren’t talking about having Carlos Carrasco start the season in the rotation, we could understand the reasoning for that.

Two of these strange moves were made yesterday. The Indians announced Josh Tomlin would start on Tuesday against Minnesota. While Tomlin deserves to be back with the big club (2-1, 2.06 ERA), he’s not the Columbus starter with the best statistics.

That would be Trevor Bauer, who owns a 3-0 record with a 1.10 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 32-2/3 innings.

Why not reward Bauer for his outstanding pitching, plus his presence in the rotation would send some excitement to both a fan base and perhaps a clubhouse that appears to need a jolt.

Look, this is not to say make the move for the fans. Bauer’s performance merits a promotion. He’s pitching well, his confidence should be at an all time high, and he’s got the look of a potential ace.

With all due respect to Tomlin, we know what he is. He’s no better than a third starter, a guy who won’t be spectacular, but will keep you in games. And we’ve advocated bringing up the right-hander when he was the only starter having success in AAA when he came up in 2010.

The other puzzling move was bringing up reliever Nick Hagadone to provide an extra arm in the bullpen until Tomlin gets the call on Tuesday. (Hagadone was sent back today to make room for Nyjer Morgan, needed because of Michael Bourn’s hamstring problems).

Really, there wasn’t anyone on the 40-man roster they could’ve brought up other than a hard throwing lefty, who can’t find home plate?

Wouldn’t you rather give a guy like Austin Adams a shot? Or bring Vinnie Pestano up for a few days?

Hagadone has an electric arm, but he’s never demonstrated an ability to throw strikes consistently. Why does the front office continually reward him with major league time? That said, it’s a moot point now, and again, he would’ve been sent out on Tuesday anyway.

With Bourn day-to-day, the Indians have another problem. With Francona’s preference for carrying 13 pitchers, the Tribe can’t have a roster spot for a player who may be out several days. They almost have to put that player on the disabled list. That’s why it wouldn’t be a surprise if Bourn has to go back on the DL when Tomlin comes up in a few days.

For now, what the Indians need most is to tighten up their defense and win some ball games. The season is more than 1/6th through. You can’t use the “it’s early” excuse much longer.

Tribe’s Patience May Be a Bit Too Much

The one thing we have learned from following baseball for many years is that the management of a major league baseball team have to have an extreme amount of patience.

We like to think we are more patient than the normal fan, who wants to bench people, trade people, and sent players to the minor leagues after a bad week.

We lobbied for the Indians to deal or release Ubaldo Jimenez at this point last season, only to have the right-hander earn a huge free agent deal by helping the Tribe get into the post-season in 2013.

However, you have to wonder just how much more patience Terry Francona and GM Chris Antonetti will have with the under performing players currently on the Cleveland roster, namely starting pitchers Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco, and third baseman Carlos Santana.

Last year, when Jimenez struggled, at least the other members of the starting rotation (Justin Masterson, Corey Kluber, Zack McAllister, and Scott Kazmir) were giving Francona mostly solid efforts. You can kind of live with one guy in the rotation having problems.

When two starters are having problems, that’s a problem, because it puts pressure on everyone else to be good every time out.

The simple solution would be to send Salazar back to Columbus to rediscover himself and put Carrasco in the bullpen, because as we all know by now, he’s gone 16 consecutive starts without a victory. That’s a half season of turns in the rotation.

The moves make particular sense because of the performance of both Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin at AAA.

Bauer has made four starts so far this season, three at Columbus and one with the Tribe, pitching 24-2/3 innings and allowing 4 runs, striking out 29 batters and walking just four. Why wouldn’t it be time to give him a three or four start stint in the majors while he is pitching well?

As for Tomlin, he’s made four starts in AAA, compiling a 1-1 record with a 2.77 ERA. In 26 frames, he’s allowed 19 hits, walking nine and striking out 18 batters. And we know from Tomlin’s work in Cleveland that most nights he will keep his team in the game.

As for Santana, the switch hitter is now batting under .130 and yet is still in the clean up spot for a team struggling to score runs, getting three or less in 13 of the 24 games played. He is still drawing a lot of walks (still a .316 OBP), but maybe he should get a couple of days off, or least drop down in the batting order until he gets it going.

Understand, the Tribe probably isn’t going anywhere without a productive Carlos Santana, but right now leaving him in the #4 hole isn’t helping the Indians get on the scoreboard.

Really, when you think of the problems of this trio, and you add in the horrible defensive play from the Tribe on a night to night basis, it’s kind of miraculous they are only two games below the .500 mark at 11-13.

This bodes well for the rest of the season, because when the defense improves, or the bats start heating up, or the rotation starts performing on a night in, night out basis, Francona’s team should start reeling off some wins.

Nobody is saying to give up on anyone, but perhaps making a couple of tweaks to the make up of the roster after almost 1/6th of the campaign might be in order.

After all, the changes can’t be any worse than what has transpired thus far.

Too Early For Panic, But Tribe Fans Can Be Concerned

It is not a secret that the Cleveland Indians haven’t played great baseball thus far this season. They are sitting at 7-10 on the season, but right now the American League has nine of its 13 teams within three games of the .500 mark.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if the entire season went that way, because there aren’t many bad teams in the junior circuit. So, while the Tribe is struggling, only two teams (Oakland and Texas) have won more than 10 games already, s0 it is hardly time to panic.

We realize that Cleveland is a football town, and it has a football mentality. Last year, there were many fans who wanted the Indians to trade for prospects when the team was five games out of a playoff spot in late July, when the trade deadline hit.

Of course, Terry Francona’s bunch played much better down the stretch and made the playoffs, winning 92 games.

We are saying once again that it is a long season. The Indians have played a little more than one-tenth of their schedule, so there is no need to be going crazy about the Tribe’s play thus far.

None of the Indians’ key players have been hot thus far, and no matter what the team’s harshest critic has to say, it is doubtful that Nick Swisher will hit .174 this season, nor will Carlos Santana hit .153. It’s probably amazing that Francona has Cleveland at 7-10 with the paltry production of these two important players.

However, we did say that the four key players for the Indians this season were Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, Swisher, and Michael Bourn. Through 17 games, only Kluber has lived up to expectations. Sure, he is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA, but those numbers are affected by his first start. He’s had three pretty good starts since.

Salazar was cruising in his last start on Thursday, giving up one run in his first four innings. The Indians got him a lead, and he suddenly couldn’t find the strike zone, walking the first two Tiger hitters, and then giving up a three run homer to Ian Kinsler.

That makes three consecutive outings where the youngster couldn’t get through six innings.

Bourn has been hurt, missing the first 13 games of the year with a hamstring issue, but he hasn’t shown any signs of changing his approach, striking out five times in his first 13 at bats.

The centerfielder hit .232 after the All Star Game last year, with an on base percentage of under .300, unacceptable for a leadoff hitter. He needs to cut down on his swing and put the ball in play, using his legs more. If he doesn’t start producing soon, his contract could become an albatross for the organization.

Outside of Kluber and Zack McAllister, the starting rotation has also been questionable. Justin Masterson has been good twice, which is only half of his starts. Carlos Carrasco has a big start this afternoon, mainly because Josh Tomlin and Trevor Bauer are breathing down his neck to take his spot in the rotation.

If Carrasco doesn’t do well today, he likely will be moved to the bullpen with one of those two being called up to make a start Friday. We believe that’s why Jason Giambi reactivation was moved to Monday, so the front office can decide who gets sent down, a position player or a bullpen arm.

Let’s wait another 10 games, when the Tribe has played 1/6th of their schedule to make any rash comments. The likelihood is that the American League will still look the same, a jumbled group of teams with similar records.

Tribe Pitchers Need to Throw Strikes

The biggest worry most fans of the Cleveland Indians had going into the season was the starting pitching. With two weeks of the season having been played, that concern still exists.

Despite the absence of Michael Bourn and slow starts by Nick Swisher, Asdrubal Cabrera, and to some extent Carlos Santana, the Indians have scored enough runs. They rank 3rd in the American League in runs scored, averaging 4.83 tallies per game and the team’s OPS ranks tied for 4th in the junior circuit.

Unfortunately, the two teams they trail in runs per night are teams they have played thus far in the 2014 season: The Twins and White Sox. Are those teams hot, or are the struggles by Cleveland’s starters responsible for their impressive ranking.

Terry Francona and Mickey Callaway’s pitching staff has struggled throwing strikes, leading the American League in allowing walks. They also lead the AL in striking hitters out. This combination leads to high pitch counts for the starting pitchers, and that puts a huge burden on the bullpen. And we all know how Francona likes to protect his relief corps.

In the Tribe’s 12 games thus far, the starter has completed seven innings just twice (Justin Masterson on Opening Night, and Zack McAllister vs. San Diego), and in only two other games have they thrown six frames (Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer, both this past week against the Padres).

That’s two out of every three games that the bullpen is forced to get more than nine outs per game.

To be sure, Callaway and the skipper would prefer the starters to be more efficient, throw strikes and let hitters put the ball in play to get outs. Masterson has walked nine in 15-1/3 frames, Carlos Carrasco has walked five in 10-1/3 innings, and Danny Salazar has issued five more free passes in 9-1/3 innings.

Speaking of Carrasco, it appears he isn’t pleasing his bosses. He struggled in his second start of the season on Friday night, but what had to have Francona and Callaway shaking their heads were the two walks he issued after the Tribe tied the game at three for him. Response runs have been a problem this season for the whole staff, but when they occur because of walks, it makes the manager upset.

After the game, reporters received the dreaded “ask him” answer from the pitching coach, a very good sign of his anger. Callaway sent a clear signal to the pitcher that he is no longer covering for him. And both he and Francona go out of their way to take the player’s side when at all possible.

The right-hander had his next start, scheduled to be Thursday at Detroit, delayed until at least Saturday vs. Toronto, but the guess here is that the front office is buying time to see whether or not to use Bauer or maybe Josh Tomlin in that spot with Carrasco staying in the bullpen.

Blake Wood (seven walks in 4-1/3 IP) could be sent to Columbus to make room in the ‘pen for Carrasco, as the organization tries to find a spot for the young right-hander and his electric stuff.

If he fails in the relief role, GM Chris Antonetti will likely have to cut ties with Carrasco.

While it is still very early in the campaign (less than 10% of the season has been played), the Tribe needs to get more length out of the starting pitchers. If the current guys can’t do it, Francona will make changes. He isn’t about to throw away a season because of this problem.

Tribe Starters Need Length, Decisions to be Made

First of all, let’s all calm down Tribe fans. The season is only one week old and the Cleveland Indians emerged at the break even mark at 3-3 even though the performance of the starting pitchers wasn’t good.

It is too early to panic because outside of Justin Masterson, each of the starters made just one appearance. Let’s give each of the starters three or four starts before jumping to any conclusions.

However from a team standpoint, Terry Francona can’t be happy about having to use his bullpen this much this early. Already, the Indians’ starters have gone less than five innings in exactly half of the games, and the club has had five straight starts where the starter hasn’t gone six complete frames.

So, it will be interesting to see the games tonight and tomorrow when Corey Kluber (3-2/3 IP) and Zack McAllister (4 IP in his first start) take the hill against the San Diego Padres. If both can pitch up to the level they achieved last season, then any concern will be eased for both fans and the skipper and Mickey Callaway.

Fortunately, the bullpen has done the job so far, allowing just seven earned runs in the six contests, and five of the eight members of the relief corps haven’t allowed an earned run as of yet.

But it’s the amount of innings they have pitched so far (24-2/3, an average of 4 per game), that has to concern Francona and Callaway

We could be sitting here a week from today after five consecutive solid outings by the starters and be concerned about the relief pitchers getting enough work. That’s why you can’t make bold statements regarding a baseball team after one week.

The Tribe front office will have some decisions to make in the next week or so regarding the make up of the roster when Michael Bourn and Jason Giambi are ready to be activated from the disabled list.

OF Nyjer Morgan has gotten on base (.500 OBP) so far, and it is easy to say he stays over Elliot Johnson (0 for 5 thus far) when Bourn is ready, but it is more complicated than that because Morgan swings from the left side, and the Tribe is overloaded with left-handed hitters.

If Morgan was right-handed it would be a no-brainer, and it is difficult to see Francona and GM Chris Antonetti going with six left-handed batters (with three more switch-hitters) among their 12 position players.

The fact that Johnson can hit from the right side may be (along with his versatility) his biggest edge. With the opponents throwing southpaws in five of the next six games, Johnson will get a chance to prove he should stay.

When Giambi comes back, it could be at Lonnie Chisenhall’s expense, or the Tribe could decide to go with one less relief pitchers. This would assume the starting pitching gets straightened out.

If that’s the case, the two candidates to sent back to Columbus would be Vinnie Pestano and Blake Wood. Wood had a leg up until yesterday when he took to loss by walking two, hitting a batter, and then allowing a three-run double to give Minnesota the lead.

Pestano has allowed runs in both of his outings in the young season.

The battle(?) between these two is something else to keep an eye on this week.

Even though spring training is over, the front office and the skipper still have roster decisions to be made. That’s something to watch this week.

How Did We Do–Tribe Will Fall Just Short of Playoffs in ’14

This was orginally posted in April

For every baseball fan, today is a day filled with anticipation. Opening Day will be here tomorrow, and despite the weather from yesterday, baseball will be played at Progressive Field by the end of this week.

Can the Indians repeat their unexpected run to the playoffs (and yes, Kenny Lofton, they did make the playoffs) in 2014? That is the question on all Tribe fans minds this spring.

We believe the AL Central Division race will be highly contested this summer with the defending champion Tigers, Indians, and the Royals all in contention, and we also feel that less than 90 wins will take the title.

All three teams will win between 83-89 games, so Terry Francona’s squad will be in the mix all season long. And because the division will be so close, things like injuries and deadline trades will have a huge factor on how things will turn out.

That said, we believe the Tribe will finish second in the division once again, but this time will fall just short of a post-season spot.

Why? Because the front office just didn’t do enough to offset the losses from this winter, mainly the departure of two starting pitchers, Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir.

We agreed with letting both pitchers depart because the contracts they signed were more than we would have paid either hurler based on their past performance, but we believed GM Chris Antonetti would have acquired at least one innings eater to replace the 340 innings that left via free agency.

As we wrote last week, if Danny Salazar and Corey Kluber reach the performance expected of them this season, the loss of two starting pitchers will become a moot point, but that’s a tough leap of faith considering they have combined for less than 300 innings in their career.

The Indians’ offense also sputtered at times last year even though Cleveland finished fourth in the AL in runs scored. Francona could have used another established bat in the lineup and instead Antonetti signed David Murphy, who has a good track record (.275 lifetime batting average, 778 OPS), but hit just .220 last season for the Rangers.

The Tribe needs comeback seasons from Nick Swisher, bothered by a shoulder problem in 2013, Michael Bourn, and Asdrubal Cabrera, who will be a free agent following the season, in order to have a more consistent attack.

They will also need continued improvement from two hitters entering their age 27 (entering prime) seasons in 2B Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley. Everyone praised Brantley’s ’13 season, but actually his OPS and batting average were down from 2012 (728 OPS/.284 in ’13 compared to 750/.288 in ’12).

He has the talent to be a premier offensive player (.350 OBP, .450 slugging percentage) and needs to reach those levels in 2014.

Kipnis needs to be more consistent. He hit .301 (897 OPS) before the All-Star break, and just .261 (714 OPS) after the Midsummer Classic. As the #3 hitter in the lineup, he needs to stay away from weeks where he is producing like a bottom of the order hitter.

We also have doubts about the experiment of playing Carlos Santana will work out. Santana hit .268 with 20 HR last season, and you would think his production will increase without the burden of catching more than 100 games a season, but will the switch in positions affect him at the plate?

And, of course, will his defense be solid enough to play at the hot corner on a daily basis.

The division will be close and the Tribe will be playing meaningful games in September. However, there are enough questions to think they will fall just short.

However, if some of the scenarios outlined above reach reality, the Indians could win the division and make the playoffs in back-to-back years for the first time since the late 90’s.

Thoughts on How Tribe Pitching Staff Shakes Out

The regular season for the Cleveland Indians starts in less than two weeks, and there are still some unresolved issues on Terry Francona’s pitching staff.

The skipper has named four of his starting pitchers with Justin Masterson, Corey Kluber, Zack McAllister, and Danny Salazar getting the nod, with one spot remaining open.

In the bullpen, John Axford, Bryan Shaw, Cody Allen, Mark Rzepczynski, and Josh Outman seem to have nailed down spots with two openings in what figures to be a seven man bullpen to start the campaign.

That leaves several candidates for the three remaining spots on the staff when the season opens in Oakland on March 31^st.

The battle for the last spot in the rotation boils down to Carlos Carrasco, Josh Tomlin, and Aaron Harang.

Carrasco struggled last year as a starter, but pitched very well in relief, while Tomlin missed most of 2013 with Tommy John surgery. When healthy, the right-hander is a strike thrower and has demonstrated an ability to give his team at least five innings per start.

Harang was brought in right before spring training started to compete for a spot in the rotation and has pitched nine innings in “A” games, allowing two runs.

Carrasco and Tomlin have also been impressive thus far.

Our guess is that Carrasco will start the season in the fourth spot in the rotation while Tomlin will go to Columbus to length out his arm at the minor league level, which is needed since he pitched very little in 2013.

As for Harang, GM Chris Antonetti will have to work some magic to keep him in the organization after March because other teams are looking for starting pitchers.

The Tribe would like to keep the veteran around because Trevor Bauer doesn’t look ready to pitch in the bigs yet, and outside of Tomlin, there isn’t much starting pitching depth in the organization.

Perhaps the Indians can get Harang to go to Columbus with an out clause if he isn’t recalled by the end of April.

In the bullpen, the candidates for the last two spots are Vinnie Pestano, Blake Wood, David Aardsma, Scott Atchison, and C.C. Lee.

Pestano would seem to have a leg up based on his success in 2011 and 2012 when he was one of the best set up men in the game. He’s done okay this spring, allowing one run and two hits in five innings.

Wood is another Tommy John survivor and has big league experience with the Royals. He’s allowed one run in seven innings, striking out eight.

Aardsma has had arm troubles too, but was the Mariners closer a few years ago. He’s allowed two runs in six innings, while Atchison, who was with Francona in Boston, has given up a run in five innings of work.

Lee is a prospect who spent bits of last year with the Tribe, and he’s allowed two runs in six frame in Arizona.

Our prediction is that Atchison makes the squad, taking the Matt Albers role from 2013. That is to say, pitching extended outings (two or three innings) if needed if the starter has to depart the game early.

The Tribe has also pointed out that Wood has an option remaining, so the other spot looks to be Pestano’s to lose.

Aardsma would be welcome in Columbus, but more likely will ask for his release so he can pursue a job elsewhere.

Of course, a late injury or a couple of horrid appearance could change these spots before Opening Day.