Previewing the ’21 Tribe

This week is the week baseball fans have been looking forward to all winter. Opening Day of the 2021 season starts on Thursday, April 1st.

The Cleveland Indians have made the post-season in five of the last six seasons, and in 2019, when they didn’t, they still won 93 games.

Can they do it again in 2021?

Why they can make the playoffs. Zach Plesac joins Shane Bieber as a second ace of the starting rotation and the rest of the young pitchers keep the Indians in every game, much like last season. Logan Allen’s strong spring training translates into a solid regular season.

The back end of the bullpen, led by James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase, and Nick Wittgren, make Terry Francona’s team unbeatable if they have a lead after six innings.

Offensively, Jose Ramirez has another incredible season at the plate, comparable to the recent seasons where he finished in the top three of the MVP voting. Josh Naylor fulfills the expectations everyone seems to have for him and becomes a guy who can put up an 800 OPS.

Andres Gimenez does a solid job at the plate, and shows why he was the correct choice to take over at shortstop because of his glove.

Eddie Rosario hits like he always has at Progressive Field, putting up 30 HR and knocking in 100 runs, and Franmil Reyes shows more consistency than ever, belting 35-40 homers.

Why they won’t make the playoffs. The inexperienced young starters don’t hold up over the entire 162 game schedule. Aaron Civale continues the struggles he had in the latter half of the 2020 campaign, and Triston McKenzie can only give the big club about 50 innings.

The offense simply can’t score enough runs to win games, and Jose Ramirez gets pitched around in any situation where the opposing team can avoid him.

The pitching isn’t help by poor outfield defense. Naylor shows he’s the best option at first base, as the other candidates for the position, first Jake Bauers, then Bobby Bradley struggle to contribute at the plate.

Reyes continues to be streaky at the plate, with periods where he is red hot, followed by several periods of 0 for 20 and 2 for 44 mixed in.

The bullpen is spotty, Karinchak struggles with his control enough that Terry Francona can’t trust him in tight games, which because of the hitting, the Indians are involved in a lot of.

And Gimenez struggles enough at the plate that Amed Rosario moves back there vs. lefties, making the defense struggle at another spot.

The Indians won’t be a bad team this season, in fact, we don’t think they will be below the .500 mark. However, an awful lot of things will need to go right for them to make the playoffs. The inexperienced rotation (remember, no one besides Bieber has pitched more than 250 innings in the big leagues) has to be very, very good.

That means two other members in the starting rotation (Plesac, Civale, or based on spring training, Logan Allen) have to be of all star caliber. And the bullpen has to be excellent as well, with Karinchak and Clase overpowering hitters.

We believe you need seven solid bats to have a good lineup, and right now, the Tribe has Ramirez, Eddie Rosario, Cesar Hernandez, and Franmil Reyes. We think Naylor can be another, but can two others step up?

It will be an interesting season for sure, as we watch Gimenez and Naylor develop, and also look at the progress of the players at the AAA and AA levels, once minor league action starts.

We figure somewhere in the neighborhood of 83-85 wins. They will be a competitive team, but won’t have enough to make the post-season in 2021

Some Praise For The Tribe: Getting Hernandez and Rosario A Plus

It has been reported that Indians’ president Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff had to ask Paul Dolan for additional funds to sign free agent outfielder Eddie Rosario. If that’s true, it should be a troubling situation for fans of the team.

Thankfully, the ownership gave them the okay.

However, on face value, it was good to see the front office improve the 2021 edition of the Tribe. Adding 2B Cesar Hernandez and Rosario certainly give the lineup a better chance to score runs.

Hernandez gives Terry Francona a legitimate leadoff option. He has a lifetime .352 on base percentage, and was slightly higher than that a year ago at .355. We know people don’t like the label of “ballplayer” in describing players, but that’s what Hernandez is, he knows how to play the game.

Rosario gives the Tribe a left-handed power bat they needed. A lot of pop from that side of the plate left with the departure of Carlos Santana and the trade of Francisco Lindor. But Rosario is a hitter who has a 162 game average of 28 HR, 90 RBI, and a 788 OPS.

And as a Twin at least, he loved hitting at Progressive Field, belting 11 homers in 45 career games, batting .353 with a 1031 OPS. He tormented the Indians for years while in a Minnesota uniform.

You would have to think the top five in the batting order is now set, with Hernandez and Rosario joining Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes, and Josh Naylor. This quintet should be very productive, especially if Naylor become the kind of hitter we think he will be.

However, we believe you need seven solid hitters to have the kind of offense needed to make the playoffs. That means two of the other four batters have to come through.

Right now, we believe those four are Roberto Perez at catcher, Andres Gimenez at SS, and whoever emerges in rightfield and centerfield.

We would love to see rookie Daniel Johnson claim one of those spots, and you have to figure Jordan Luplow with be somewhere in the mix, especially against left-handed pitching. We would still like him to get a shot at playing full time, because as we have said in the past, he didn’t have huge platoon splits in the minors.

By the way, we also think the Rosario signing probably forces Naylor to first base.

Now, as for the comment about needed to go to ownership to get extra money to sign Rosario.

As vociferous critics of the Dolan ownership, this just makes us shake our head. Even with Rosario, the payroll would appear to be around $50 million to start the season. Outside of Tampa Bay, who else is competing with a payroll that low?

It is another reason we believe one of the catchers, either Perez ($5.5 million) or Austin Hedges ($3.28 million) will be moved before the season gets underway. It doesn’t make sense if you want to reduce spending on players to have one of the highest paid guys in uniform on the bench in every game.

It would also be a reason that the club is listening to offers for recently acquired Amed Rosario. If the Tribe is going to slot Gimenez in at short, A. Rosario is likely headed for a super utility man with Cleveland, and perhaps a candidate for an outfield spot, probably CF.

However, it has been reported both Oakland and Cincinnati are interested in the former Met, so maybe the Indians can strengthen another area, rightfield, bullpen, an added starting pitcher, in a deal.

The Tribe’s season will come down to scoring enough runs and can their very young rotation hold up over a 162 game (or whatever the season will be) campaign.

They did get better in the former last week. However, is it enough?

The Decline Of The Tribe Hitting Since ’16

It wasn’t that long ago that the Cleveland Indians had one of the best offenses in the American League. In 2018, the Tribe finished in the top three in the AL in runs scored for the third consecutive year.

So, what happened in the past two seasons?

Let’s start with 2016. The American League champs finished second in the league in scoring, with four starters having OPS over 800: Carlos Santana (865), Jose Ramirez (825), Jason Kipnis (811), and Mike Napoli (800). Francisco Lindor fell just short of that mark.

In addition, two essentially platoon players, Tyler Naquin and Brandon Guyer, who was acquired at the trade deadline were over 800. If you include Lindor, it gave Terry Francona six guys in the lineup who were big threats at the plate.

That was Napoli’s last good season, and in 2017, the Indians replaced him with Edwin Encarnacion, and Cleveland finished third in the Junior Circuit in runs scored.

That season, five regulars had OPS of 800 or more (Santana, Ramirez, Lindor, Michael Brantley, and Encarnacion) along with platoon pieces Austin Jackson and Lonnie Chisenhall, again giving Francona six very good hitters most days in his batting order.

And the front office went out an acquired Jay Bruce when Brantley was injured to maintain the offense. It was also the last year the Indians won a post-season game.

Unfortunately, Kipnis’ last very good season hitting was ’16, and the ’17 campaign was the last healthy season for Chisenhall, and that was the last year in which Francona had more than four regulars with OPS over 800.

This meant second base was not as productive, the outfield offense was starting to decline, and Santana departed via free agency.

In 2018, the number of very good hitters written into the Cleveland lineup was down to four, but one of them was Ramirez, who set a blistering pace until the middle of August, winding up his second straight year finishing in the top three in the MVP voting. He likely would have won without his late season slump.

The other three were Lindor, Brantley, and Encarnacion.

A larger shift occurred during the off-season, when Brantley departed as a free agent, and Encarnacion was traded with the primary return (other than shedding payroll) was Santana who returned and had an excellent 2019 season.

Brantley’s departure meant the outfield was now an offensive hole, the only player putting up good numbers in 2019 was newcomer Jordan Luplow, a platoon piece.

The only everyday players with 800+ OPS’ were Santana, Lindor, and Ramirez, who struggled through May before getting red hot until he broke a bone in his hand in September.

Cleveland wasn’t getting any offense from the outfield, DH, and 2B (we eliminate catching because of the team’s philosophy of defense first at the position), which necessitated getting Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes when they dealt starter Trevor Bauer, although Puig was a free agent to be.

Not coincidentally, the Indians dropped to 7th in runs scored in 2019.

That ranking is excellent compared to being 13th in the COVID shortened 2020 season. The only Indians’ hitter with an OPS over 800 was Ramirez, the AL MVP runner up. The hitters closest to that figure were Reyes, Lindor, and 2B Cesar Hernandez, who was an upgrade at that position.

The inability of the organization to replace guys like Brantley, Kipnis, and have two effective platoon players at spots has led to this. This leads us to the question of how does this situation get corrected?

Hernandez is a free agent, and it is tremendously likely Lindor will be dealt in the off-season, meaning Ramirez is the lone wolf from the 2016 season, although we would think Reyes can get over the 800 OPS threshold next season.

We have demonstrated that good offenses have five or six players of this type (800+ OPS) in the batting order regularly? Care to tell us beyond Ramirez and Reyes who those players will be?

It will be very difficult for Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff to find three or four solid bats for Francona to use in 2021. It also demonstrates that trimming the payroll usually results in forming holes on your baseball team.

The hitting slowly disappeared over time and no one reacted. The organization failed to find suitable replacements. And the result is what happened in 2020.

Tribe Infield Likely To Be Way Different in ’21

The Cleveland Indians had an everyday infield in 2020. Each game, either Terry Francona or Sandy Alomar Jr. wrote down the names of four switch-hitters to play the infield, most days batting them in the first four spots of the order: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Cesar Hernandez, and Carlos Santana.

In 2021, it appears only Ramirez will remain in the Cleveland lineup, another example of how different next year’s Tribe lineup will look different.

Obviously, the impending and likely deal of star shortstop Lindor will hopefully bring back a player or two who could fill at least one of these spots, but right now, here is who Tribe fans should be getting better acquainted with next spring.

First Base: The likely candidates, barring trades, would be Josh Naylor, Jake Bauers, and Bobby Bradley, all left-handed hitters, although we could see Santana brought back at a lower salary.

Right now, Naylor (who will be 24 next year) would be the front runner even though he had a 621 OPS between the Indians and the Padres in 2020. He did have a 719 OPS in 253 at bats with San Diego in ’19, and he makes more contact than the other two. His projected numbers in ’21 (according to Baseball-Reference.com) is 252 at bats, 8 HR, 31 RBI, .254 average, 730 OPS.

Bauers (25) spent all of the ’20 season at the satellite camp, and was a big disappointment in ’19 after coming over from Tampa Bay, hitting .226 with a 683 OPS. In the second half, he batted just .170. His projected numbers?: 210 at bats, .229, 727 OPS, 8 HR, 28 ribbies.

Bradley (also 25) also didn’t see a big league at bat in 2020, and his problem has been contact, striking out 153 times at AAA in ’19, and 20 times in 49 plate appearances with the Indians. The organization seems to have soured on him after that big league stint. His projection?: 182 at bats, .236, 735 OPS, 7 HR, 24 RBI.

Second base: Gold Glove winner Hernandez is likely gone, and the primary replacements would seem to be Yu Chang or Owen Miller, who came over in the Mike Clevinger deal in August.

Chang (25 next year) feels like he has been around forever, and has some pop, but has had contact issues, his strikeouts are more than double his walk totals in his minor league career, and he has just a .251 batting average in the minor leagues. He’s also a candidate at shortstop, depending on the return for Lindor. His projection for 2021 is 189 at bats, .233 average, 702 OPS, 6 HR, 24 RBI.

Miller’s (24) numbers in the minors are impressive. He’s a career .307 batter (808 OPS) and has never struck out more than 86 times in a season. The only issue here is he’s never played above the AA level.

He’s been mostly a SS in his professional career, but has spent time at 2B too. He doesn’t have a big league projection for 2021, but he’s definitely a player to keep an eye on when spring training starts.

Shortstop: Chang and Miller figure into the mix here as well, along with two younger dark horse candidates, and presumably whoever the Indians get back in a Lindor deal.

The two younger players are Gabriel Arias (21 next year) who came over in the Clevinger deal. He hit .302 in Class A in 2019, but hasn’t played at a higher level as of yet. He’s a right-handed hitter, but has had contact issues thus far in his minor league career.

The other is top prospect Tyler Freeman, who will turn 22 in ’21. He also hasn’t played above the high A level, and is a .319 lifetime hitter in professional ball (.379 OBP). He’s been a doubles machine in the minors.

It’s hard to imagine the Tribe going with either of the latter two, as we are sure they would like to see both at a higher level of the minors.

Again, we believe the return for Lindor will have an impact on the infield, because his immediate replacement may be part of the return in the trade. And the front office will be looking for less expensive free agents as a one year stop gap as well.

Fans thought the outfield was unsettled in 2020. They may be looking at 2/3rds of a lineup being that way this upcoming season.

A Monumental Off-Season For The Tribe

To say this off-season is monumental for the Cleveland Indians is truly an understatement. Yes, the Indians made the playoffs in the shortened regular season, and only five key players on the roster are over 30 years old, but it feels like a shift in the franchise is at hand.

Will Terry Francona still be the manager or will his health issues cause him to take another role within the organization.

Roster wise, you can feel confident that only three regulars will be in their same positions when the Tribe reconvenes in Goodyear next February: 3B Jose Ramirez, DH Franmil Reyes, and C Roberto Perez.

The biggest elephant in the room is the status of SS Francisco Lindor, who can be a free agent after the 2021 season. The most likely scenario is president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff will see what they can get for their star player and trade him.

To us, that could signal in a rebuilding phase, albeit maybe a short one.

The Indians struggled to score runs all season long, so on the surface, it would seem like dealing one of your few dependable hitters (yes, we know Lindor didn’t have a great season, but he was one of four players with an OPS+ over 100) would not be a way to help the offense.

Carlos Santana will turn 35 around Opening Day 2021 and is coming off the worst year of his career, and has a $17.5 million club option, that the Indians will surely not pick up. Will they be willing to bring him back on restructured deal? If they do, they need a back up plan. Could that be Josh Naylor or perhaps Jake Bauer?

Cesar Hernandez was a great pick up from the Phillies, but he will be 31 in ’21 and had one of his best years, so we would imagine he is looking for more than the $6.25 million he earned this past season. If that’s true, does that put him out of the Indians’ range?

And Brad Hand will also turn 31, and seems to have lost some velocity off his fastball. He has a $10 million club option for 2021, but with Emmanuel Clase coming back, we would predict the only reason the organization picks it up is to trade the closer and get something back.

It’s pretty clear to everyone the outfield needs to be overhauled. Cleveland’s OF ranked lowest in the AL in WAR this season, and two of the starters, Delino DeShields Jr. and Tyler Naquin could wind up being non-tendered. We find it improbable that next year’s OF will be comprised of three unproven youngsters.

That leaves the Lindor situation, and we can all get ready for a winter filled with speculation on where the shortstop will spend next season. We feel a deal involving Lindor would likely signal the closing of the contention window.

We know the organization has tremendous pitching, but can they survive a 162 schedule struggling to score runs.

However, the safe bet is Lindor will be dealt in the off-season, but we say why not play it out, especially since the Collective Bargaining Agreement end after the 2021 season.

It is unlikely the Indians will get a fair return for their star shortstop. Keep him, try to win and make the post-season next season, and see what the new rules for baseball will be following the season.

For all we know, there could be a “franchise player” clause. Or revenue sharing might be more prominent, or what about a salary cap with a corresponding salary floor.

All might be more advantageous to keep Francisco Lindor, and the added benefit is another chance to make the playoffs.

Without a doubt, this is a very important fall and winter for the Cleveland Indians’ organization. What this team will look like in February is anyone’s guess.

This Week Is About Tribe Getting Ready For Next Week

Within the next couple of days, maybe even today, the Cleveland Indians will clinch a spot in the expanded eight team American League playoff field.

So, Terry Francona, Sandy Alomar Jr., and Carl Willis are tasked with getting the Tribe ready for the wild card series, which begin either Monday, October 5th or Tuesday, October 6th.

The team changed its starters for the series against the White Sox, with Shane Bieber being moved back to Wednesday’s game so he will be ready to go in game one of the first series. Cal Quantrill will get the start in what is essentially a bullpen game.

Apparently, the brass already made the change with the batting order, and hoping the new configuration, with Francisco Lindor leading off, and Jose Ramirez moving to the #3 slot, will provide more runs.

It’s not the style of the Indians’ leadership to make another change at this late date unless there is an injury.

Who would start game two? If the Tribe is involved in a series that starts Monday, it would be difficult to see anyone but Zach Plesac getting the nod. If Cleveland starts on Tuesday, Carlos Carrasco could make his next start on Friday night, and still take the hill in the second game of the first round series.

These last seven games will also be a trial for the bullpen, as Willis and his crew try to firm up the pecking order. We know Brad Hand is the closer, and James Karinchak will be the guy the Tribe uses in the 8th or in the “Andrew Miller” role, the highest leverage situations.

But who would pitch the 7th inning if a reliever is needed in a close contest? We would bet the staff will take a long look at newcomer Quantrill, particularly because he could go more than one inning if needed. He and Nick Wittgren would seem to be the arms that take care of the 6th and 7th innings.

Where does that leave veteran Oliver Perez? He would come on for a tough lefty bat, or maybe for a full inning if two left-handed hitters are scheduled. We believe the coaching staff has high confidence in the southpaw.

And Phil Maton could be used in a similar role vs. right-handed bats.

With the Wild Card Series being a best of three series, it means there is seemingly no role for Aaron Civale and/or Tristan McKenzie. We don’t know how Civale’s stuff plays out of the bullpen, unless it is in a long relief role, but we could see a rested McKenzie coming in for an inning or two if the starter can’t get through five innings.

That would seem to mean Cam Hill and Plutko would be used in mop up roles.

We also believe Delino DeShields will be the primary centerfielder in the playoffs. We wish Oscar Mercado would have received the bulk of the playing time after he was recalled, but he hasn’t, and he hasn’t exactly torn the cover off the ball when he has played (5 for 31).

Will Mercado platoon with Josh Naylor in LF or Tyler Naquin in RF though? We know Jordan Luplow will be in the lineup when a lefty opposes the Tribe, but does the skipper, whether it be Francona or Alomar, platoon in both corner outfield spots.

Another question is will the Indians carry 13 pitchers for the post-season? With no off days, it may be necessary, but if they decide to go with 12, who among the extra players at Lake County gets the call?

The Tribe hasn’t made a lot of moves during the shortened season, but would bringing up a left-handed bat off the bench make sense, particularly if whoever would get the call hasn’t faced big league pitching in awhile.

We understand a spot hasn’t been clinched as of yet, but the Mariners aren’t playing well, so it may be over as early as tonight.

But the Indians still have plenty to play for, including passing Minnesota to hop into the 4th or 5th seeding spot. We are anxious to see how the team approaches these last seven games.

Who’s Tribe’s #2? Might Just Be Plesac.

Prior to the Major League Baseball trade deadline, there seemed to be a clear pecking order to the Cleveland Indians’ starting rotation.

Shane Bieber, who is the favorite for the American League Cy Young Award in this COVID shortened season is the clear ace, and would start Game 1 of the first round of the playoffs if and when Cleveland qualifies, unless he was needed to start a game so the Tribe could qualify for the post-season.

Right now, by our calculations, the magic number is 15 to clinch a berth in the eight team field.

Before the megadeal with San Diego, it would have figured that Mike Clevinger would pitch game two.

After all, Clevinger was 26-12 over the past two full seasons, and a 2.90 ERA and 376 strikeouts in 326 innings. And in his lone playoff start, he pitched five innings in Game 3 vs. Houston in the 2018 Division Series, allowing just one run, striking out nine.

So, although we don’t want to put the cart ahead of the horse, who takes the ball in the second game, and perhaps most pivotal game of the first round best of three series, a game in which the Tribe could advance or have to win to force a deciding game.

A couple of weeks ago, Aaron Civale would have been the odds on favorite, but since his complete game win against Pittsburgh, he hasn’t pitched as well.

Prior to that start, Civale pitched 25 innings to a 3.60 ERA, allowing 25 hits. Four of the ten earned runs he allowed came in a game against the Tigers, where he gave up three runs early before settling down.

In his last three starts, he’s allowed 10 runs in 18 frames, a 5.00 ERA. His usual impeccable control has been reduced as well. Before the Pirates start, the right-handers had struck out 26 hitters, walking just three.

The last three starts have yielded 17 whiffs against six walks, and 20 hits allowed. There has been a lot of traffic on the basepaths.

Terry Francona could also pick veteran Carlos Carrasco, who has rebounded from a tough three start stretch by allowing just a single run in his last two starts, spanning 12 innings, with 13 strikeouts and five walks.

Carrasco has made two very good post-season starts, the first in game three of the ’17 Division Series vs. the Yankees (5-2/3 scoreless innings, seven whiffs), and the other in game two of the ’18 ALDS against Houston (5-1/3 innings, two runs) where he left the game with the lead.

However, the guy we would consider is Zach Plesac, who stuffwise might rank right behind Bieber. The second year right-hander, who missed time because of his ill advised night on the town in Chicago, has a 3-1 record and a 1.32 ERA.

He’s allowed just 23 hits in 34 innings, striking out 34 hitters, while walking just two. He’s faced the White Sox, one of the league’s best hitting attacks twice, pitching 14 scoreless innings, fanning 18 batters, while walking just one.

He is scheduled to start in Minneapolis this weekend, so we may have a clearer picture of what he can do after that start. If he can control the Twins bats, he could emerge as the game two starter once the post-season starts.

That’s amazing because when the season started, Plesac was the #5 guy in the rotation. But starting with his first start against the White Sox, an eight scoreless inning performance with 11 strikeouts, he’s shown a great improvement from his rookie year.

Obviously, there will be 3-4 starts remaining for the rotation depending on how Francona, Sandy Alomar Jr., and Carl Willis want to line it up for the playoffs. However, Plesac has thrown his hat into the ring for the second spot in the rotation.

Just another surprise in this crazy 2020 season.

Until Ramirez, Lindor, C. Santana Start Hitting, Tribe In For A Bumpy Ride

Last night’s game between the Cleveland Indians and the Detroit Tigers marked the 27th game of the season, which would be the 1/6th point of a normal 162 game slate.

While many baseball people like to point to the quarter pole of a season (40 games), we think 27 games is effective because the campaign has gone along enough to make some judgments.

And despite occasional flashes from Tribe hitters, you have to conclude that the Cleveland offense isn’t very effective.

The Indians rank 13th in the AL in runs scored per game, ahead of only Kansas City and Texas. The other four teams that join them in the bottom five of this category have a combined 41-66 record, which is a .383 winning percentage.

The bottom five in the National League have a combined record of 47-63, which is a slightly better, but still poor .427 record of winning.

Therefore, it is remarkable that Cleveland has a 17-10 record despite their limited ability to score runs, but it seems important to winning games, that you have to produce some runs.

It also points to how unbelievable the Tribe pitching has been this season.

We anticipated the Indians might struggle to score runs because the bottom of their batting order was largely unproven, or in their because of their defense. The outfield was thought to be a possible problem all winter. It’s one of the reasons they signed Domingo Santana.

As of today, the highest OPS of the bottom four in the lineup (most frequently Santana, Tyler Naquin, Roberto Perez, and Delino DeShields) is 648.

The league average is 735.

However, the top of the lineup has also performed less than anticipated, with only Franmil Reyes and Cesar Hernandez doing what was expected.

Reyes is the only Indian hitter with an OPS over 800 (888), and the only Cleveland player with a slugging percentage of over .450 and an on base percentage over .350.

Hernandez has done his job, which was to get on base. He has a .370 on base percentage, and has seen a lot of pitches and worked counts.

Carlos Santana has been a walk machine, leading the league by a wide margin (27, next best player has 20), but he has just five extra base hits on the season, two doubles and three home runs, with a batting average of just .193.

Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor, the duo supposed to be the best offensive players on the team, have really scuffled.

Lindor is hitting .252 with just six walks (723 OPS), and has grounded into a league high seven double plays. To our eye, he is trying to pull outside pitches instead of hitting them into the gaps. And he is swinging at a lot of borderline pitches when he is ahead in the count.

The last couple of days, he is taking a bit of an opposite field approach in an effort to stay on the ball, and has had some hits.

Ramirez has had a couple of huge games (a pair of two homer contests), but hitting only .233, and hasn’t had a hit since last Sunday. He has taken some walks (he’s in the top ten in the AL), but has really been feast or famine in 2020, mostly the latter.

If the trio of Ramirez, Lindor, and Carlos Santana aren’t producing on a consistent basis, this offense is in big trouble. Their track records indicate they will hit at some point, but until then, it’s pretty ugly.

We’ve seen suggestions of moving Lindor back to the leadoff spot recently, but we don’t think that’s a good remedy. His career high in on base percentage (2016) is .358, which is less than what Hernandez is giving the team now.

Terry Francona and the front office can keep shuffling the deck in the outfield, but what will that accomplish? The hope that someone gets hot? Hope isn’t a plan.

Until the mainstays of the Cleveland lineup (Ramirez, Lindor, Santana) get going, this offense is going to struggle. The pitching will need to remain excellent until that happens.

Can Tito Afford To Keep Handing It To Hand?

It is hard to come up with any criticism of the Cleveland Indians’ pitching staff. They lead the American League in ERA at 2.56.

They also lead the AL in strikeouts, least walks, and shutouts. The only category they are struggling a bit in is allowing the long ball. They’ve allowed the fifth most in the league, but that is really a product of being around the strike zone so much.

Most of the home runs are of the solo variety, and throughout the history of baseball, some of the game’s best hurlers have allowed tons of homers. The career leader is Jamie Moyer, and the next four pitchers are all in the Hall of Fame: Robin Roberts, Ferguson Jenkins, Phil Niekro, and Don Sutton.

However, there is one thing that should be a concern for Terry Francona and his pitching coaching staff of Carl Willis, Ruben Niebla, and Brian Sweeney. And it may be the most important pitching spot for a contending team. It’s the status of closer Brad Hand.

Last night, Hand picked up his 5th save, but it certainly wasn’t pretty. Coming in with a 3-0 lead handed to him by Shane Bieber and Nick Wittgren, Hand walked the lead off hitter on five pitches.

He then got Miguel Cabrera to lineout to LF, while the next hitter, Jonathan Schoop reached on catchers’ interference, which wasn’t Hand’s doing.

Another line drive to left was followed by an RBI double, so suddenly, the Tigers had the tying runs in scoring position. Cameron Maybin bounced to the mound, and the Tribe won the game.

In Hand’s 5-2/3 innings this season, he’s allowed five hits and four walks, along with seven runs, four of them earned.

He’s made seven appearances on the season, and has produced just one clean inning, that on August 4th. And he’s yet to protect a one run lead heading to the ninth.

He did come into a scoreless tie vs. the White Sox on July 29th, but proceeded to allow four runs (three earned) facing five hitters, retiring just one.

If the rest of the bullpen were struggling, we could understand Francona’s reticence to move away from Hand as the closer, but that is not the case. In fact, the skipper has started to use rookie James Karinchak in high leverage situations, aka the “Andrew Miller” role.

Nick Wittgren, who closed some a year ago when Hand was down with a tired arm, has pitched eight times (8 IP) to a 2.25 ERA and striking out 10. He’s prone to giving up the long ball, he gave up 10 gopher balls in 2019, but just one this season.

Another rookie, Cam Hill, has also earned a save, and outside of an outing against the Cubs last week, has also been very effective.

The questions are these for Tito, does he feel confident using Hand in a one run save opportunity? Would he use Karinchak in that spot, if he hadn’t already use him earlier? Would he go to Hill or Wittgren?

Again, it would be one thing if the veteran lefty, and three time All Star struggled once or twice, but he’s been shaky in six of his seven outings, and his velocity seems down, and he’s had command issues with his slider.

If Francona isn’t nervous, everyone else is.

This isn’t a normal 162 game season. The Indians are a little over a third of the way through the season, so patience is in short supply.

Perhaps Willis and his guys see something to indicate Hand is close to regaining his usual form. If they aren’t, it will be interesting to see what course of action is.

DeShields May Be Tribe’s Best CF Option For Now.

The outfield of the Cleveland Indians has been a supposed weakness for several years, at least according to the national baseball media.

Some years, Terry Francona’s use of the platoon advantages, the skipper covers up the problem. However, centerfield seems to have been an issue for several years.

A few weeks ago, we wrote a piece about Bradley Zimmer, detailing that he was called up in 2017 because Francona wasn’t happy with having to use Lonnie Chisenhall in center, and he needed a left-handed hitter to platoon with Austin Jackson.

Abraham Almonte wasn’t hitting and Tyler Naquin’s defense wasn’t gold glove worthy in the middle of the outfield.

The following year, Jackson, who was tremendous both offensively and defensively (869 OPS) was gone to free agency and the platoon was Greg Allen and Rajai Davis, neither of whom provided much offense.

That necessitated the deal for Leonys Martin, who unfortunately fell ill shortly after being acquired from Detroit.

Jason Kipnis was moved to centerfield late in the season after Josh Donaldson came over from Toronto at the end of August.

When Francona was hired in 2013, it coincided with the signing of Michael Bourn as a free agent. Bourn was never an offensive juggernaut (career high of 739 OPS to that point), and didn’t really hit in Cleveland either, compiling a 660 OPS here over two and a half seasons.

He also stopped stealing bases when he arrived in Cleveland, which was probably his best offensive weapon. And he was just okay defensively.

Last year, Oscar Mercado came up in mid May and became, we guess, the first everyday centerfielder since Bourn, playing in 115 games and hit .269 with 15 homers and a 761 OPS.

Our lone concern about Mercado was his strikeout to walk ratio (84/28 in ’19), and he’s never been a big base on balls guy in the minors. However, that is something that can be gained through experience.

Perhaps if the other Tribe outfielders had been hitting, Mercado’s slow start to the season would have been overlooked and he would have time to get going, but they didn’t, so the second year player’s 5 for 41 start became a problem.

Drawing just two walks while fanning 13 times hasn’t helped either.

So, “summer camp” sensation Zimmer got more opportunities, and at first took advantage, but after starting 3 for 9, including a homer, he’s gone 3 for 19, and the strikeout bugaboo has returned, as he has fanned in seven of his last 16 plate appearances.

As a result, we are writing something we didn’t expect to…right now, the best option for the Indians is Delino DeShields.

Yes, the outfielder who the Tribe acquired in the Corey Kluber deal from Texas, and the guy who has a career 670 OPS, even though he played half of his games in the hitters paradise the Rangers used to play in.

So far, he’s taken some walks (4) and even squeezed home the lead run in the 10th inning of Sunday night’s win over Chicago. And he’s solid defensively in centerfield, as are Mercado and Zimmer, which is needed if Domingo Santana is playing the outfield.

This isn’t to write off Mercado, but again, with the team struggling as a whole (last in the AL in OPS and last in the majors in slugging percentage), management has to look for alternatives.

Zimmer earned an opportunity for more time, but right now, he is falling back a bit into what he showed as a hitter after his first couple of months at the big league level.

We scoffed about getting DeShields when the trade was made, but right now, he might be the best option the Indians have. Funny how some things play out.