The Cleveland Guardians are very much in a race for a post-season spot. However, it will not be easy to attain. It may be trite to say, but their chances really hinge on how they play over the next few weeks.
In that time, Steven Vogt’s squad will play several teams who are either in the playoffs as of the moment or have aspirations of getting there. That stretch starts next weekend with a series in Texas, who sit just three games behind Cleveland.
Then comes Tampa Bay, four games behind the Guards, followed by Boston, who is three games ahead of Cleveland and currently in possession of a playoff berth and Seattle, just ahead of the Red Sox.
We are lifelong fans of the Guardians and despite being critical of the team at times (usually directed at ownership), we would like nothing more to see Vogt and the players overcome the odds and play meaningful baseball in October.
Our heart says it’s possible, but our head says it’s not likely.
To us, it feels like this group has succeeded using smoke and mirrors all season long. The team’s won/lost record based on the number of runs they scored and allowed is 57-635, six games below the Guardians’ actual record of 63-59.
That six-game difference would indicate a lot of luck has worked in favor of the team.
We look at the offensive numbers. Despite scoring a lot of runs since their 10 game losing streak, Cleveland still ranks third from the bottom in the American League in runs scored. They are second worst in getting on base, third worst in slugging percentage, and tied for 12th in home runs.
Everyone wants to talk about the pitching factory in Cleveland, and over the years it has churned out a lot of good ones, but this year’s staff isn’t among the best in the league. They rank 8th in ERA, above the league average, but it’s still 3.89. Now, it is kind of jumbled and with a great six weeks to finish, they could rise to as high as 2nd or 3rd, but some of the ancillary numbers aren’t great either.
The Guardians have walked the 4th most hitters in the AL. Control has been an issue for several pitchers, like Gavin Williams, who leads the league in bases on balls, and Joey Cantillo seems to have control issues regularly.
They are around league average in striking hitters out. The one area they have been good is they have kept the ball in the park, allowing the fourth fewest homers in the AL.
The Guardians have already been on a pretty good roll, winning 23 of their last 33 contests. They have 40 games remaining, so can they extend this streak to a point where they win 50 of their last 72?
Again, anything is possible, but they are really going to have to continue to play at the rate they’ve been at since the losing streak for the rest of the season.
We saw the Tigers go 47-28 last season after July 4th. Heck, last year the Guardians won 38 of their first 57 games.
So, it is possible. And we will continue to hope for it to happen. That’s why they play the games, and as Terry Francona (and others) always said, you can only win the game you are playing today.
Yes, the Guardians have played well over the last month or so. The reality is they are going to have to play even better down the stretch, meaning the offense needs more players swinging it, and the pitching staff needs to be dominant.
Let’s all collectively cross our fingers.