After the Cleveland Cavaliers secured the first pick in the NBA draft, sports talk shows in the city rounded up the noted draft experts around the country to inform fans on who GM Chris Grant should choose when the selection process starts.

Unfortunately, there were several names that kept coming up.  Either the person told us Nerlens Noel, from Kentucky, was going to be a solid NBA big man once he gets bigger and stronger, or they said Kansas’ Ben McLemore has the smooth shooting stroke to succeed in the league.

Others said Georgetown’s Otto Porter would be a good small forward, or UNLV’s Alex Bennett, who could become a similar player to former Rebels’ standout Larry Johnson.

There are two problems with this talk.

First, there is no clear-cut guy at #1.  The lack of a consensus player coming out is a problem.  Even if there were two players such as when Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams came out, it would be better for the Cavaliers.

Second, there are a lot of maybes, woulds, and similar in the comments listed above.  That means scouts are drafting on potential, not on actual performance.

According to NBADraft.net, here are some of the comparables for the first five players they project in next month’s draft:

McLemore–Ray Allen
Noel–Larry Sanders/Dikembe Mutombo
Porter–Tayshuan Prince
Victor Oladipo–Tony Allen/Terry Teague
Bennett–Rodney Rogers/Jason Maxiell

There are two all-star type players mentioned here, Allen, who is one of the great shooters of all time, and is still a productive player in his late 30’s, and Mutombo, a tremendous defensive player for many years, and an eight time all-star,  but a guy who never had much of an offensive game.

Prince is a nice player, a starter on the Piston team that won a title, but he was not the primary scorer there, and Allen might be the best wing defender in the NBA.  However, both have been role players for much of their careers.  Good ones, but still role players.

Sanders is an up and coming player, who averaged 9.8 points and 9.5 rebounds for Milwaukee this season.

Now, we understand that the web site doesn’t want to compare players to all time great, because if the player doesn’t become that it looks bad.

So , let’s look at the site’s comparables for the 2012 draft:

Anthony Davis–Kevin Garnett/Marcus Camby
Bradley Beal–Eric Gordon/Marcus Thornton
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist–Gerald Wallace/Andre Iguodala
Harrison Barnes–Glen Rice
Thomas Robinson–Derrick Williams/Patrick Patterson

Of that group, Garnett is an all-time great player, and Iguodala and Wallace have made all-star teams in their careers.  Rice averaged 18.3 points a game for his career and made three all-star teams.

Gordon has been held back by injuries, but most people think he will be very good if he stays healthy.

It just reiterates what we’ve been saying about this draft all along, it’s very speculative.  Whoever the Cavs draft, there is potential for a good player, probably not a great one, and there is also the possibility the player will be a huge bust.

For a franchise that has publicly stated they want to make the playoffs next season, it appears to make that leap, they will have to find an impact player somewhere else.  It doesn’t look like that guy will be available in the draft.

JK