Talking Through Trading Bieber

When the Cleveland Guardians fell to 21-28 after losing a series on the road to the Chicago White Sox, the baseball media immediately went to their default story when dealing with the Guards, the possibility of a trade of an established star for prospects.

In this case, the star is former Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber. What kind of haul could Cleveland get for the ace of their staff?

First of all, let us be clear that we are in favor of any trade that makes the team better. However, we say that with a caveat. After winning the AL Central Division a year ago, we are not interested in deals that make the Guardians better in three to four years.

The other part of that equation is the 75 year gap since the last World Series the franchise won.

The real question is what numbers the front office are looking at, the win/loss record or the number of games behind the Guards are in the standings? If it’s the former, then they have to look at the prospect that Bieber will be a free agent after next season and has already likely turned down an extension offer.

If they believe this year’s team can still win the division and get back to the playoffs, then a trade at the deadline doesn’t make sense, particularly since Triston McKenzie is back on the injured list.

We all saw firsthand last week what happens when the starting pitchers don’t throw a good share of the innings on a nightly basis. Any team’s bullpen gets taxed, and Cleveland is no different.

This is a good time to bring up that Bieber leads the American League in innings pitched with 95. Granted, we aren’t seeing the dominant Bieber who made the All-Star team in 2019 (he was the game’s MVP) and was the best pitcher in the league in 2020.

But he still is great help to the Guardians because he can pitch deep into games and he still is effective, allowing less hits than innings and walking only 25 batters vs. 69 strikeouts. His ERA is in the mid-threes at 3.51.

With McKenzie and Cal Quantrill both down, and two rookies in Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee taking two rotation spots, Terry Francona and Carl Willis need guys who can give the bullpen a lighter load every few games.

And if the Guardians do fall off the pace in the division by the middle of July, then it would make sense to explore deals for the right-hander, but we feel the organization would be and should be looking for major league ready bats and/or arms in return.

Besides the whole 1948 issue, remember that Jose Ramirez will turn 31 in September, and we know he wants to win here. Pushing an opportunity to do so down the road a few years while Ramirez is still putting up all-star numbers would seem to be a bad move.

This isn’t a rebuilding team, they won 92 games a year ago with the youngest team in the sport. Before the season started, we looked at young teams and saw sometimes they had to take a step back before they moved forward.

That’s how the Guardians should view this season if they do fall off the pace.

One other issue about trading Bieber while the Guards are still very much in the race. How do you explain it to the fan base, who already look at the ownership with a jaundiced eye.

Guardians Have To Solve A Problem. This Time A Good Problem.

In baseball, there is an adage that you cannot have enough pitching. Terry Francona offers a corollary when he says when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more.

In the next week or so, we will find out what the Cleveland Guardians will do when starting pitchers Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale come off the injured list.

Civale made two starts at the beginning of the season, while McKenzie was injured at the end of training camp and has been out the entire season.

The Guards weathered the storm with the help of their so called “pitching factory”. They used Hunter Gaddis, who was going to make the Opening Day roster out of the bullpen as a starter to replace McKenzie, and when Civale went down, they went with Peyton Battenfield first, and then went to Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee, when Gaddis struggled.

Battenfield went 0-5 with a 5.19 ERA before he went on the IL with should soreness, but Allen and Bibee seem to have earned the right to stay on the big league roster.

Allen, a lefty, has made seven starts covering 39.2 innings and posted an ERA of 2.72 striking out 43 batters, walking 11, and allowing 39 hits. He really has had just one bad start, that vs. the Angels, who peppered him with eight hits in 4+ frames.

Otherwise, he has given his team a chance to win in every other start.

If possible, Bibee has been even better, going 1-1 with a 2.88 ERA in his six starts, pitching 34-1/3 innings, allowing 28 hits and fanning 34 batters, walking eight. He too had a struggle in just one of his outings, a 3-2/3 inning effort vs. Detroit where he allowed seven hits and four runs.

It is safe to assume both have earned their place on the varsity roster, but remember, the organziation will likely want to manage the innings for both as the season goes on.

Both pitched 132 innings a year ago, their most since turning professional. Conventional wisdom would say the brass will want to keep them around 150-155 this season. Adding 20 innings per season is kind of the mark in trying to avoid arm issues.

There is one open spot in the rotation, the one Gaddis currently holds, so according to reports, Civale will take the next turn against Minnesota on Friday night.

As for McKenzie, do the Guardians go with a six man rotation to limit the innings for Allen and Bibee? Or could have move Cal Quantrill back to the bullpen to help a relief corps that is searching for outs.

Right now, McKenzie is scheduled to pitch the series finale in the Twin Cities this weekend.

The problem with the Quantrill move is once you do it, it would be difficult to bring him back to the rotation if the two rookies start to falter.

Another option would be a modified six man rotation is which Shane Bieber pitches with his preferred fifth day, and the others worked off of that.

Allen could have made the decision a bit easier, but he threw an absolute gem yesterday, allowing just three hits and whiffing 10 in seven shutout frames.

We will see what Terry Francona and the front office decides later in the week.

Shining A Spotlight On Plesac

The Major League Baseball season is still young, very young in fact. However, if you are a player with a poor recent track record, you still start the season with something to prove.

That’s the way we feel about Guardians’ starting pitcher Zach Plesac, whose first start on Monday didn’t go as well as he wanted, no doubt, and we are sure the coaching staff and front office were disappointed as well.

Plesac burst on the scene somewhat unexpectedly in 2019, after just 14 starts at the AA and AAA levels. That season, he made six starts at Akron, compiling a 0.96 ERA, and then was promoted to Columbus, where in four starts, he went 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA.

He made his major league debut in Fenway Park on May 28th, throwing 5-1/3 innings allowing just one run, and finished the year with an 8-6 record and 3.81 ERA in 116 innings.

The following season was the COVID shortened year, but Plesac pitched well, going 4-2 with a 2.28 ERA in eight starts. However, there was an incident where he broke the virus protocol by leaving the team hotel in Chicago after a Guardians’ win.

Since then, the right-hander has made 50 starts, going 13-18 with a 4.58 ERA, and that includes a 3-12 mark last season. Plus, he’s suffered self-inflicted injuries the past two seasons, both from letting his temper get away from him.

We figured when he broke a bone in his hand punching the mound in Seattle last August (it was done in a very good start), the front office would make a move during the off-season to give the pitcher a fresh start somewhere else.

But a move wasn’t made and the Guardians are trying everything to salvage him as a quality big league starter.

The Guardians seem to have a profile for their players. They like solid humans, who grind it out, putting the team above all else. We don’t know Plesac personally (obviously), but he seems like he doesn’t fit that mold.

Breaking the COVID protocol, injuring yourself twice, those things don’t exactly fit being a good teammate, and in his first outing he was visibly upset when Amed Rosario lost a pop fly in the twilight, a ball that could have given Plesac a scoreless first inning.

He gave up a hit to allow a run right after, and then came out in the second and basically gave up five straight bullets off of Oakland bats. Did his teammates show displeasure when he did that?

To us, he’s also become a bit of a nibbler, falling behind in counts and then having to make too good of a pitch.

It’s not the one bad start in 2023, it’s the last 50 starts that put Plesac on watch. With Triston McKenzie’s injury, the Guardians don’t really have an option to replace him in the rotation, but if he has more outings like Monday or when McKenzie is ready to go, he could wind up being the odd man out.

We are sure the organization doesn’t want to rush Gavin Williams or Tanner Bibee either.

Hopefully, Plesac can start his turn around Sunday in his next start. If he is to have a future in Cleveland, he needs to pitch better and be mentally tougher.

Guardians Should Add Another Division Title

It’s finally here. If you are a baseball fan, it’s what you looked forward to since the last out of the World Series. You knew it was getting closer when spring training started, but now it’s here.

Opening Day!

When we were younger, the start of a new season held hope for a Cleveland Indians’ fan in the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s. We thought maybe this year we would catch lightning in a bottle and could get to the World Series.

Of course, that was a young, foolish thought. It wasn’t until 1995 that it happened, and really, despite our criticism at times of the team, they’ve been good more often than not since then.

We think the Guardians will win the AL Central this season, and perhaps last season’s surprising campaign can be the jumping off point for another run of post-season appearances. It’s a very young roster with a very strong farm system.

Besides the catching spot, currently being held by veterans until prospect Bo Naylor is ready, which should happen sometime this summer, the oldest Guardians are perennial MVP Jose Ramirez and newcomer Josh Bell.

Ramirez is simply one of the best players in baseball, and probably the most underrated. Recently, ESPN (yeah, we know) ranked him as the 13th best player in the game, which is ridiculous. There simply aren’t 12 baseball players right now better than Jose Ramirez.

In the last six seasons, he has finished in the top four in the MVP balloting four times and finished sixth in another year. 13th? It shows how little the people who cover baseball at the four letter network know about the game.

If Bell has an average season for him, say 25 HR and 90 RBI, it will lend some thump to a lineup that ranked 14th in the AL in homers last season. Although the Cleveland lineup did a great job producing runs considering the lack of power (6th in the AL in runs), having the ability to put a tally on the board with one swing of the bat helps.

The players to watch are Andres Gimenez and Steven Kwan. Can they improve on last year’s numbers? They are 24 and 26 respectively, so they should still be on the upward path of their careers. If they do, they will put up special numbers.

A baseball mantra is a team can’t have enough pitching, and this has been the pillar of the Cleveland organization over the past 10 years. They’ve had three Cy Young Award winners, and one of them, Shane Bieber remains the staff ace.

Triston McKenzie’s injury puts a bit of a damper on the rotation, but if Aaron Civale can stay healthy, that’s a plus. The biggest question mark has to be Zach Plesac, who hasn’t been effective over the last two seasons.

By the middle of the year, hurlers like Gavin Williams (5-4, 1.96 ERA at AA and A) and Tanner Bibee (8-2, 2.17 ERA at AA and A) could be ready to take his spot.

We are particularly bullish on Williams, who has the profile of a workhorse ace at 6’6″ and 255 pounds. He fanned 149 batters in 115 innings last season. Bibee is no slouch in that regard, whiffing 167 hitters in 133 frames.

The bullpen is the most volatile part of any baseball team, but when the back of the ‘pen is anchored by Emmanuel Clase, that’s a reason to feel somewhat comfortable. Over the past two years, Clase has a 1.33 ERA and has allowed only five home runs in 148 appearances. He’s also only walked 26.

We never take for granted a winning baseball team in Cleveland. After 30 years of hoping to find a winning season, this is rather fun.