Can Guardians Score Enough Runs To Win In October?

The prevailing thought for playoff success for the Cleveland Guardians is to get the lead after five innings and use their greatest strength, their bullpen to hold off the opponents and get the win.

Our biggest concern heading into Saturday’s Game 1 of the American League Division Series? Can they get a lead?

Before the All-Star break, the Guardians have a pretty good offense, ranking 5th in the AL in runs scored, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. When play resumed after the Midsummer Classic, it was a different story.

Since then, the Guardians ranked 11th in the league in runs scored, averaging a full run less than before the break at 3.8 per game.

The only Cleveland player with an OPS of over 800 in the second half is of course Jose Ramirez at 916 and Kyle Manzardo who had just 63 at bats. The perennial all-star batted .291 with 16 HR and 41 RBI in that period.

Only three hitters were even over 700, and of those only Josh Naylor would be considered an everyday player, and he batted just .240 with nine homers (717 OPS). The other two were David Fry (723 OPS) and Jhonkensy Noel (734) and the latter has gone 4 for his last 43 over the last month.

Keep in mind the league average OPS is 703, so the only everyday players above league average are Ramirez and Naylor.

In terms of batting average, the league average is .240 and in on base percentage it is .309.

Once again, Ramirez is getting on base at a .350 clip since the middle of July and Manzardo is getting on a third of his plate appearances in his small sample size. The only other regulars over league average are Steven Kwan (.316), Josh Naylor (.311), and Will Brennan also at .311.

Outside of the red-hot Tigers, who surged in August and September, the Guardians are the worst offensive team in the AL section of the playoffs, scoring 4.4 runs per game. Detroit is at 4.21, but we’ve already said how the Cleveland attack has waned since the first three months of the season.

And although Ramirez has been his usual incredible self, in the playoffs, most teams are not going to pitch to him in any situation where he can do damage, putting pressure on the elder Naylor and Lane Thomas, who will probably hit 5th.

Thomas had a pretty good September with a 770 OPS, but still struck out at a 32% clip in the last month.

Couple this with a starting rotation without a real ace (Tanner Bibee isn’t in the class of a Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, or Corbin Burnes just yet), and you have to wonder can the formula laid out above work?

Let’s say the Guardians’ starter goes five innings and gives up two runs, can we be confident the bats will provide the three runs needed to hand the game over to the bullpen?

Look, it’s the post-season and anything can happen. Hopefully the offense gets back to the levels attained before the first of July, when the Guardians were 52-30 and were scoring almost five runs a night.

Most likely, it will be a struggle to put runs on the scoreboard, which means taking advantage of the opportunities the Guardians will get. We will see starting on Saturday.

Anatomy Of Bullpen Usage For The Guardians

When the Cleveland Guardians recent five-game winning streak ended on August 3rd with a 7-4 loss to the Orioles, there were quite a few comments on social media (yes, we know) saying Steven Vogt and his staff didn’t really try to win that game.

That’s because when rookie Joey Cantillo left the game after four innings, trailing 3-2, Vogt went with Pedro Avila to pitch 1.2 innings, and Nick Sandlin for a third of an inning to get the Guardians through six innings.

Still losing at that point, Xzavion Curry came on and after a scoreless seventh, he gave up four runs in the eighth and the game was out of reach.

The social media managers couldn’t fathom why Vogt didn’t use one of his better relievers to keep the score at a one-run deficit.

First of all, we are sure when Vogt went to Curry for the 7th, he wanted him to keep the game right there at 3-2. We are doubly sure Curry did not want to give up runs either because his spot on the roster was tenuous at best.

He’s since been DFA’d and picked up by the Miami Marlins.

But to get to the 7th inning on August 3rd, we need to go back to the previous Sunday, when Vogt used his best relievers to score a series win in Philadelphia, a game which coincidentally, Cantillo also started. It was his first big league start.

Cantillo went 3.1 innings and with Kyle Schwarber, who had already hit two bombs off the rookie, coming up, Vogt went to Cade Smith, who struck him out.

That began a busy week for the bullpen. In the subsequent game, Tanner Bibee went six, and with a 7-0 lead, the skipper used Pedro Avila for 1.1, Scott Barlow for 2/3, and Hunter Gaddis to finish it off.

The only eyebrow raiser there was using Gaddis with a then 8-2 lead.

The following day, Gavin Williams shut out Detroit for five, but used 90 pitches in doing so, meaning the ‘pen had to cover four innings. Tim Herrin, Sandlin, Cade Smith, and Emmanuel Clase finished off the game, which until Cleveland scored in the 8th and 9th, was a 2-0 affair.

Following a day off, Cleveland beat Baltimore 10-3, but it was a 5-2 contest heading into the bottom of the 7th. Ben Lively gave the team six frames, so Vogt used Smith, Herrin, and Sandlin to finish.

The next night, Cleveland won 8-4, but it was 2-1 heading into the 5th, and the manager, clearly not totally confident in Carlos Carrasco, pulled him after 4.1, so again Smith was used for 1.2 IP, followed by Barlow (.1), Avila (.2), Gaddis and Clase (each an inning).

That game was on a Friday night, meaning in a six-game span, Smith pitched four times totaling 4.1 innings, while Barlow, Sandlin, Gaddis, Herrin, and Clase were all used three times.

The Guardians’ starters have had trouble eating innings all season long, and if the team is going to get where it wants to go this season, it is incumbent on Vogt and Carl Willis to take care of the relief corps, the strength of the team.

That means, sometimes, when the Guards are trailing the manager has to have “live to see another day” attitude. That means pitching Avila, Eli Morgan, and perhaps Peter Strzelecki in higher leverage situations.

It’s also those pitchers’ opportunity to earn the skipper’s trust. Smith began the year pitching in lower leverage situations, for example.

It does not mean the manager isn’t trying to win, but these guys aren’t Strat-O-Matic cards, you can’t run them out there every day. There will be a time to do just that. It’s called the playoffs.

Hopefully, all of these relievers will still have something in the tank when October comes around.

Another Injury Causes Vogt, Willis To Use A Tito Model

The Cleveland Guardians head into a huge four-game series this weekend at Minnesota with the starting rotation still very much in flux. Steven Vogt and his staff have done a masterful job working around this issue, and it will be interesting to see how he handles this upcoming series.

The latest starter to miss a start is Tanner Bibee, who didn’t pitch yesterday against Arizona, as Logan Allen was recalled taking his turn. The club is still hopeful Bibee will not have to be placed on the injured list.

Newcomer Alex Cobb pitched for Columbus on Saturday and should make his debut this week vs. the Twins, so hopefully that’s a big help. We know some are optimistic about Matthew Boyd too, but you have to remember he has a 4.94 lifetime ERA.

Perhaps the best news for the Guards this weekend was Triston McKenzie’s outing at AAA Saturday night when he pitched six shutout innings fanning 11. Having McKenzie find his command will also be a huge factor down the stretch.

Ben Lively continues to be consistent, beating Philadelphia and Baltimore in his last two starts, and for the most part, Vogt and Carl Willis are probably very confident he will give them five or six solid innings and Cleveland will be in the game when he leaves the game.

Because of these issues with the starting rotation, Vogt and Willis seem to have taken something from the way Terry Francona handled a similar problem during the 2016 playoffs. That is, if you don’t have a lot of confidence in your starter, see if you can get them two times through the batting order and then go to the bullpen.

It is fairly obvious to everyone that the bullpen is the strength of this team. Fox analyst John Smoltz pointed out in Saturday night’s broadcast that when you are playing Cleveland right now, there is pressure to have a lead after five innings. That’s how good the relief corps is.

It looks like the role of Andrew Miller is being played right now by rookie Cade Smith, who has struck out 75 hitters in 54 innings and has a 2.17 ERA. If the starter gets Vogt into the fourth inning, when Smith is available, he comes in and gets the Guardians through the fifth or sixth, depending on when he is brought in.

And Vogt is trying to save his primary relievers right now, so if they are trailing after five, fans should get used to seeing pitchers like Pedro Avila, who has done a real solid job in this role, Xzavion Curry, Eli Morgan, and even Connor Gillispie, who got called up prior to Sunday’s game and pitched three innings in his MLB debut.

That is totally a sound strategy. Do everything you can to win games when we have the lead. If you are trailing and Avila (or another long reliever) does a great job and shuts the opposition out, it gives the offense a chance to get a lead, but these guys can’t pitch every night.

People can’t be mad that the bullpen is overused and then be angry when Vogt pitches Curry when the Guards are losing 4-1 in the 7th inning. The manager is doing his best to protect his pitchers while still trying to win games in a post-season race.

And right now, he is threading a needle. Until Bibee’s shoulder is healthy, Cobb can make effective starts, and McKenzie is back to his normal pitching, the coaching staff is trying to squeeze out wins anyway they can.

They should get enormous credit for that.

Guards Biggest Needs: Starting Pitching (Duh) And???

The Major League Baseball trading deadline is Tuesday afternoon and there is a lot of speculation on what the Cleveland Guardians will do before then.

Of course, there are the callous fans who think they will do nothing, it will be status quo for the front office, after all, the Guardians have the best record in the American League and one of the best records in baseball with the current group of players.

But we know the other competitors for post-season spots will make moves to get better, so president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have to seek to make the roster better in order to “keep up with the Joneses”.

In terms of WAR (wins over the replacement), the Guardians chief need is no surprise, it’s starting pitching. A few years ago, Cleveland had a rotation of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, and Shane Bieber, and with that, you knew they had a chance to win every night.

Those guys were that good.

These days, you can only have confidence when Tanner Bibee and the surprising Ben Lively take the hill. Gavin Williams is still working his way back from an elbow issue, and his last few starts have been hit or miss. Hopefully, that improves going forward.

Carlos Carrasco was a nice story coming out of spring training, but he’s allowed 106 hits in 95 innings and has an ERA of 5.68. Pitching five innings and giving up three runs is not a good outing.

And the fifth spot is a revolving door right now.

We hear a lot of talk about upgrading at SS, and surprisingly, the other positions where the Guardians are getting the worst production are catcher and right field, not shortstop.

We doubt catcher is considered an area of need by the organization and we agree with that. Now that David Fry’s elbow is allowing him to play the position, we think the Guardians are satisfied with him, Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges, although with Fry back, the latter’s at bats can be few and farther between.

Perhaps that’s where Angel Martinez and Jhonkensy Noel should be getting their at bats? Will Brennan has received the bulk of the playing time there, but he provides neither power (.379 slugging percentage) or the ability to get on base (.291 on base percentage) walking just 16 times in 247 plate appearances.

That’s a bad combination particularly for someone who plays a corner outfield spot.

We agree that it would be nice if Brayan Rocchio hit more. But he is the best defensive shortstop option on the squad, and we have always said you need seven solid bats in your lineup to have a good offense.

Anyone else the team plays at short now that Gabriel Arias was sent down seems to have issues with the glove. And if your pitching staff, particularly the starters, are struggling, you have to put solid defenders behind them.

Actually, the best way the offense can be helped would be for their best hitters to start producing again. If Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, and Josh Naylor started swinging the bats again at their career norms, that would go a long way in straightening out the offense.

Guardians’ Rotation Had Quantity Issues, Now Have Quality Problems

The Cleveland Guardians have had starting pitching issues since pretty much the first week of the regular season. That’s when Shane Bieber went down after his second start in Seattle. After 12 scoreless innings and 20 strikeouts, he was done for the season.

However, until recently, it wasn’t quality that was the issue it was quantity. The starters simply could not pitch deep enough in games to assist a bullpen that although was performing yeoman work, was pitching a lot of innings.

Triston McKenzie, counted on to be one of the rotation’s stalwarts, had a 3.23 ERA after beating Minnesota on May 17th. The issue was he had one start of seven innings and two others were he went 6.2 frames.

The longest he has gone since? 5.1 in back-to-back starts in early June before he was sent to Columbus a couple of weeks ago.

Logan Allen went 6.2 shutout innings in his second start of the year in Seattle, and that was his longest outing of the season. He went six innings four times and was sent to AAA last week.

Staff surprise Ben Lively has gone seven innings once and pitched into the 7th just one other time. He has a 3.59 ERA on the season, so he’s been pretty effective.

However, since Tanner Bibee went six innings on June 29th in Kansas City allowing two runs in beating the Royals, the issue has been quality as well as quantity.

Since that start, a stretch of 13 games, the Guardians’ starters have compiled a 5.69 ERA , with one start of seven innings (by Bibee Wednesday night in Detroit) and two starts where the starter completed six.

In this period was Gavin Williams’ 5.1 IP scoreless outing against the Tigers, the best performance by a starter in the last two weeks. Removing that start from the equation raises the collective ERA by the rotation to an unsightly 6.41.

Teams with that high of an ERA from starters are largely non-competitive. They are behind early in games and it very difficult to come back and win. That the Guardians are 5-7 in these games speaks to the resolve of the players.

The last two games in Tampa have returned to the original problem, which is length by the rotation. Carlos Carrasco and Gavin Williams both pitched five innings, allowing two runs against the Rays, but that meant the relief corps had to cover seven innings because they lost Friday.

We have already seen Nick Sandlin go on the injured list and now Sam Hentges is out with a shoulder issue. It’s not a leap to think the arm problems are due to the overuse of the bullpen.

We know president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff are aware of the problems with the rotation and are working the phones for help before the trading deadline.

However, there are a week and a half worth or games before the deadline, and Steven Vogt has to have starters. We would assume Bibee, Williams, and Ben Lively would start the first three games out of the break, but what about after that?

Yes, there is Carrasco, but only the most optimistic Guardians’ fans feel good about that. He’s a fan favorite and his return has been a great story, but he still has a 5.02 ERA. Lefty Doug Nikhazy has been great in AAA in three starts, allowing no runs and six hits in 17 innings. Maybe he gets a shot?

Can the Guardians get enough out of the rotation for the rest of the season in terms of both quality and quantity? That might be the biggest question of the season.

McKenzie Is First Shoe To Fall In Guardians’ Rotation

The first shoe dropped for the Cleveland Guardians’ starting rotation when they sent struggling right-hander Triston McKenzie to Columbus in order to active Gavin Williams from the injured list, where he has been all season.

McKenzie hasn’t seen the fourth inning in any of his last three starts and leads the American League in two dubious categories: Walks allowed, and home runs allowed. If you want to be an effective starting pitcher, you can’t do both of those things.

Williams has been out with an elbow issue suffered in training camp and will finally make his season debut this week. He threw 82 pitches in a rehab start last week, and hopefully he picks up where he left off in his rookie season.

The former first round draft pick pitched to a 3.29 ERA last season, striking out 81 hitters in 82 innings. If he can get to around that form this year, it will be a big boost to a rotation that has been mediocre even though the Guardians have a six-game lead in the AL Central Division.

We say this because the rotation seemingly keeps springing leaks. Logan Allen has been one of the guys who has been in the rotation all year long, but in June he made five starts totaling 24.1 innings (less than five per start for the non-math majors) and had a 5.55 ERA.

Unfortunately, Allen has had three of the worst starts by a Cleveland pitcher this year. He went 2.1 giving up seven runs vs. Detroit, an inning and 2/3rds allowing seven runs against the Rockies and three frames allowing six runs vs. Baltimore.

The confidence in him is low enough that Steven Vogt took him out of Sunday’s game against the Royals after allowing two runs in 4.1 innings because three right-handed hitters were coming up for Kansas City.

That leaves only two starters that Vogt can rely on right now. Tanner Bibee has pitched wonderfully, and it was fun to see him struggling a bit in his last start, but as soon as his teammates got him the lead, he locked it in and wound up with a solid outing.

And Ben Lively has been a godsend. He had a 5.38 ERA with the Reds a year ago, and we pooh-poohed the signing as a roster filler. But he’s given the Guardians at least five innings in all but two of his 13 starts and has a 3.03 ERA to boot. Who knows where the rotation would be without him.

Carlos Carrasco has been a little better his last two starts, but still has a 5.27 ERA and has allowed more hits than innings pitched. Right now, we don’t have any more confidence on days he pitches than we did a month ago.

The front office is obviously trying everything to get a starter and to prove it, they signed Matthew Boyd, a 33-year-old lefty to a free agent contract. Boyd is coming off Tommy John surgery and the hope is he will be able to pitch for the big club in August.

He started 15 games for Detroit last season, compiling a 5.45 ERA, but striking out 73 hitters in 71 innings with 25 walks. His career ERA is 4.94. Could he help down the stretch? Possibly, but we wouldn’t bank on it.

As we said, we know the front office is aware and is working to get some help for the rotation, if only to ease the burden on the bullpen, which continues to be amazing.

As for McKenzie, we figured his issue would have been staying healthy rather than being sent down for ineffectiveness.

The Continued Struggles Of The Guardians’ Starters

Last night was exactly what the doctor ordered for the Cleveland Guardians in terms of starting pitching. Tanner Bibee gave Steven Vogt six scoreless innings, great effectiveness and some decent length.

We know the rotation has been the weakness of the 2024 Guardians thus far. It is the only position on the squad where Cleveland ranks last in the American League in WAR (wins above replacement).

The last pitcher who went six frames in a game was Logan Allen on June 7th vs. Miami. Previous to Allen, it was Bibee, who went 6.1 innings on May 31st.

So, in the month of June, the Guardians have had exactly two outings where the starting pitcher completed six innings. Now, we understand the game has changed recently, but having your bullpen have to cover more than 12 outs on a nightly basis is not something usually equated with success throughout a six month season.

There were a few outings where Vogt yanked his starter in the sixth and perhaps, he didn’t have to. The starter could have got the last out of the inning.

We get it. When your bullpen has been as great as the Guardians’ have this season, it is tempting to get them in the game and have a guy like Sam Hentges, Tim Herrin, or Cade Smith overmatch the next hitter to end the inning.

We know the front office is aware of the problem, and we are also it is difficult to make a deal for a starter at this point. We also know there are a lot of teams looking for starting pitching, so it won’t be easy for Cleveland to pull off a deal.

Everyone is waiting for Gavin Williams to be back, but in his last outing in AAA, he threw 53 pitches, making over 30 in the second inning where he only recorded two outs before being removed.

So, it appears it will be a while before he can join the rotation.

Meanwhile, Carlos Carrasco and Triston McKenzie have to be a concern. Carrasco missed a couple of starts with a spasm in his neck, and since his return, his longest outing was five innings last Saturday, and he only went five because the Guards were trailing 5-0 and Vogt didn’t want to overexpose his relief corps.

He’s made just two starts where he went at least six innings, one against the Angels and the other vs. the White Sox. He has a 5.80 ERA for the year, and last year, it was 6.80 for the Mets.

McKenzie has had issues with the two things pitchers cannot do and still be effective, and that is walk people and give up home runs. When we were young, we used to hear about guys who gave up the long ball, but since they didn’t walk people, most of the dingers were solo shots.

McKenzie leads the AL in walks and is second in the Junior Circuit in giving up homers with 15. Thankfully, he doesn’t give up a lot of hits besides the home runs.

Perhaps Pedro Avila should get a shot. He started in San Diego last year and has been okay so far for the Guardians (2.60 ERA, 31 K’s in 26.2 innings). Or why not see what Connor Gillispie can do?

He has a 4.55 ERA at AAA, allowing 62 hits in 63.1 innings with 64 strikeouts. His last few outings have been much better than that. Maybe he can get into or complete six innings of a Major League game?

McKenzie and Carrasco’s struggles put more pressure on Bibee, Allen, and Ben Lively to pitch deeper into games.

The Guardians have a great thing going, sitting at 45-26 on the season. That doesn’t mean they are complacent. However, the more that duo struggles, the more of a burden they put on the relievers.

Remembering When Starting Pitching Brought Confidence To Guardians’ Fans

As recently as 2018, fans of the Cleveland baseball team were spoiled by their starting pitching. The rotation consisted of Corey Kluber (who won 20 games that year), Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Trevor Bauer, and a rookie fifth starter named Shane Bieber.

At the time, we thought going into every game, the Indians had a legitimate chance to win because they had the edge between the two starting pitchers.

Even into the pandemic season of 2020, Terry Francona’s starters were at the top of the sport. Bieber emerged as a Cy Young winner that season, and he was backed up by Carrasco, Clevinger (before he was traded), Aaron Civale, and rookie Triston McKenzie.

Baseball people started to refer to the “Cleveland Pitching Factory”, with the organization seemingly able to crank out starter after starter. Heck, it happened last season when McKenzie went down in spring training, Zach Plesac proved ineffective, and Cal Quantrill was hurt, the Guardians simply went to the farm and called up Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams.

Apparently, this season the factory has been shut down for repairs or something, because the organization is scrambling to put an effective starting pitcher on the mound each and every night.

It was certainly curious when the organization released Quantrill after the season rather than pay him through arbitration, where he figured to make about $6 million, not a lot of money for a guy who can give you innings.

The right-hander has pitched to a 3.58 ERA in Colorado this season logging a staff high 73 innings. By the way, those innings would also lead the Guardians’ staff.

The only pitcher signed over the winter was Reds’ castoff Ben Lively, who has been a savior for this year’s staff.

Bieber was lost to elbow surgery after two starts, leaving a huge void in the rotation, which coming into the season consisted of him, the three rookies, and McKenzie, who missed most of last year with an elbow issue.

Of the trio of first year arms called up last year and thought to provide the backbone of the rotation going forward, only Bibee has been close to his ’23 form, with a 3.73 ERA in 70 innings with 76 strikeouts and 19 walks.

Williams has missed all year with an elbow issue, but hopefully can return soon. Allen has made his 13 starts but has a 5.57 ERA.

McKenzie has not pitched like the guy who put up a 2.96 ERA in 2022. He has allowed a league leading 14 dingers (tied with his teammate Logan Allen) and also leads the league in walks with 36 in 62.2 innings of work.

Right now, the rotation has more holes than an old guy’s socks. And there were no solutions at hand.

Xzavion Curry has made three spot starts, one very good, the other two being “meh”. The ERA of the pitching staff at Columbus is 5.46 and the best starter down there is journeyman Connor Gillispie, who has a 5.02 ERA, although he has 60 strikeouts in 57.1 innings. He’s 26 years old.

The bullpen has taken on a heavy burden for the big club to get off to this 42-22 start. How long can they sustain the success pitching all of these innings? Could they do it all year? Sure, but based on the past, eventually it is going to catch up with them unless the starters start carrying their weight.

As we said, Lively has been a savior and Bibee has been solid. Carlos Carrasco has been a nice story in his return to the franchise, but he can’t be trusted to get through a lineup a third time.

McKenzie needs to throw strikes and he and Allen need to keep the ball in the yard.

More likely is the front office is going to have to overpay to bring in an arm. With the Cleveland bullpen, they may be able to get a guy who can soak up innings and keep the team in the game.

The rest of the team is doing too well for the rotation to be a burden.

Do Guardians Really Need A Shortstop? Not So Fast

As the calendar turns to June, the Major League Baseball trading deadline is now less than two months away. And with the Cleveland Guardians off to a tremendous start, speculation has started as to what the front office will be targeting at the July 30th deadline.

It doesn’t take in depth analysis to realize the Guardians need starting rotation help, although you could say that with most contending teams.

Obviously, losing Shane Bieber after two starts was a huge blow, and not having Gavin Williams to date, has really wiped out 40% of the rotation. Williams is making progress, making a rehab start last week, and perhaps he can be back before July 1st.

Still, although Tanner Bibee has been very good (4-1, 3.74 ERA) he is averaging less than 6 innings per start. The same is true of the other rotation pieces, Triston McKenzie and Ben Lively.

This is put a heavy toll on the bullpen, which has been the strength of the team. The list of the top ten in the American League in appearances features four pitchers wearing Cleveland uniforms: Emmanuel Clase is tied for the league lead with 30. Hunter Gaddis and Nick Sandlin are tied for fourth at 29, and Scott Barlow is tied for 7th at 28.

Add in Tim Herrin with 27 games and rookie Cade Smith with 25. So far, no one has lost effectiveness, but you would hate to get into August and have the relief corps suffer a downturn.

The other position that comes up is shortstop. However, if you look at WAR, the Guardians’ weakest positions have been RF and catcher. The rightfield issue may sort itself out as we wouldn’t be surprised if David Fry starts getting more playing time there now that Stephan Kwan has returned.

We have written about Fry before, and when you are hitting .355 with an OPS of 1128, your manager is going to figure out how to get you in the lineup.

Brayan Rocchio doesn’t have a lot of pop, and we are sure people look at his .203 batting average and say he has to be replaced. But looking inside the numbers, you see that Rocchio is tied for second on the team in walks with 23, behind only Fry with 24.

So is on base percentage is .308, which is the American League average. And Rocchio has been more than adequate defensively, which is important because first and foremost, shortstop is a defensive position.

Let’s not overlook the Guardians’ excellent start and the way the hitting has produced runs certainly buys Rocchio more time.

And we have always said this. If Cleveland was having problems producing offense, then Rocchio would certainly be under more scrutiny. But they are winning and scoring.

We have also always felt that good lineups need seven solid bats in the batting order to be productive. The league average OPS is 699 right now, and the Guards have five hitters over that figure, but over the last month, Tyler Freeman is close at 694.

We are willing to give Rocchio more time, especially because he has an acceptable strikeout/walk ratio, meaning he is not getting dominated by opposing pitchers.

If you are asking, we would add pitching first and foremost, because we agree with former skipper Terry Francona, when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more.

We would rank the trade targets this way: 1). Starter 2). Reliever 3). Starter…….4). shortstop.

Six weeks from now, we may sing a different tune.

Length Of Starters And Walks Troubling Guards’ Pitchers

The Cleveland Guardians are off to a very good start, winning 10 of their first 15 games.

We saw a comment over the weekend saying the Guards are taking advantage of an easy early schedule, but the Mariners and Twins were considered contenders coming into the season, so we don’t know where that is coming from.

After this series in Boston, the Guardians finish up the season series with the A’s, and then have Boston, Atlanta, and Houston coming up, and those series will be an early season measuring stick.

Competing with those teams will probably hinge on the performance of the starting rotation. Normally the strongpoint of this organization, so far, their performance has been not up to par.

Outside of Shane Bieber’s two six scoreless inning outings before he went on the injured list to get elbow surgery, the rotation has been more miss than hit, and only Logan Allen through 15 games, has pitched into the seventh inning.

Even worse, Tanner Bibee got into the sixth in his second start vs. Minnesota, but just for one out. Triston McKenzie went 5.2 IP innings in the home opener. And that’s the extent of starting pitching after the fifth inning three times through the rotation.

It does not take advanced sabermetrics to figure out this is not a sustainable way to win over a 162 game season.

With Bieber out, the front office has to find a replacement and both Xzavion Curry and Ben Lively are getting auditions this week. Whoever pitches better in Boston probably stays in the rotation going forward, although we believe Lively has an edge because he’s a veteran and the team brought him in as a free agent, although Curry made a great case yesterday with five scoreless innings.

The biggest problem has been throwing strikes. Every starter, save for Bieber, has been guilty of nibbling, causing their pitch counts to rise and forcing Steven Vogt to go to the bullpen much earlier than he wants.

Tanner Bibee has walked 8 in 13.2 frames after issuing 45 bases on balls in 142 innings in 2023. Carlos Carrasco has issued 9 walks in 12.2 innings.

But the most concerning number is Triston McKenzie who has walked 12 in 13 innings with just five strikeouts. Some have speculated that command issues stem from arm issues, and with McKenzie missed most of ’23 with injuries, it is definitely something to watch.

The bullpen has done yeoman’s work in keeping the pitching staff to where it has the 5th best ERA in the American League.

We know Vogt trusts Emmanuel Clase, and why not, but it seems like the second arm in the pecking order has fallen to Hunter Gaddis.

As a starter, Gaddis was prone to the gopher ball, allowing 11 dingers in nine starts, totaling 38.2 innings.

In his new role, Gaddis has been dominant so far, appearing in eight games for a total of 7.2 frames, striking out 11 and walking two, with just four hits allowed.

Scott Barlow was expected to be the primary set up man for Clase to begin the season, but he has had some control issues, allowing six free passes in 7.1 innings.

Cleveland pitchers have allowed the fourth most walks in the AL, and we know that Carl Willis has always emphasized the importance of getting ahead in the count. Hopefully, the staff starts doing what the veteran coach teaches, and starts it soon.

Issuing so many walks have the staff on a tightrope, and the walks by the starters are putting too large of a toll on the relievers.