It’s Crunch Time For The Guardians.

Here we go. The Cleveland Guardians have a single game lead in the AL Central with 30 games to play and we have a good ol’ fashioned race for the division title.

It started yesterday with a doubleheader sweep by the Royals, the first two of seven games between Kansas City and Cleveland over a ten-day stretch. And there is a quartet of games at Progressive Field against the Twins September 16th through the 19th.

Pennant race baseball is a lot of fun even though Cleveland fans haven’t experienced a lot of it since the franchise returned to prominence in 1994.

Since the three divisional set up, when Cleveland has won the division, they did it pretty comfortably: 30 game margin in 1995, 14.5 in ’96, 6 games in ’97, 9 in ’98, 21.5 in ’99, 6 games in 2001, 8 in 2007, 8 in 2016, 17 in ’17, 13 in ’19, and their last division title was won by 11 games in 2022.

Now this year, it may wind up the same, with the Guardians coasting into the title by going on a hot streak.

The most fun last month of the season might have been 2013, Terry Francona’s first year as Indians’ skipper. On Labor Day, Cleveland was in second place in the Central, 8.5 behind the first place Tigers. In terms of the wild card, and there were only two that year, the Tribe was 3.5 behind the Rays, who at the time held the last playoff spot.

By September 15th, they had trimmed that margin to just a half game and wound up hosting the Wild Card Game against Tampa by winning their last 11 games to cap off a 21-6 month.

By the way, they lost that one game playoff and the Rays’ starting pitcher was current Guardian Alex Cobb.

While it is likely (not guaranteed) that all three teams, the Guardians, Royals, and Twins will make the playoffs, winning the division takes added importance this season.

Right now, Cleveland has a five-game edge over AL West leading Houston, and the division winners with the two best records at the end of the season advance right to the Division Series. Keep in mind, the Astros and Guardians finish the regular season with a three-game set at Progressive Field.

After the second set of games against the Royals, the last three being in KC, the Guardians then have to travel to the west coast to take on the Dodgers, before heading to Chicago for a series with the Sox, now of course managed by former Cleveland standout, Grady Sizemore.

At the conclusion of that excursion pretty much ends the road season for Steven Vogt’s crew, with only a three-game set in St. Louis remaining away from the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

As for the Royals, they have just 13 home games left and following these games in Cleveland, they head to Houston for four there. They also have road series at Yankee Stadium and Atlanta, the latter to finish the season.

The Twins play 19 more at Target Field and have 14 road contests. They are currently playing the Braves, and have three more in Kansas City while the Guards are in LA.

They end the year against the Orioles, who could also be fighting for playoff seeding.

While it may not be enjoyable to watch, especially if the Guardians’ hitting is struggling, meaningful September (and late August) baseball is supposed to be fun. Besides the Cleveland game, you also have the scoreboard watching.

Let’s hope there is more hope at the end of this stretch and not more questions.

Remember, MLB Post-Season Isn’t Supposed To Be Easy

Friday, the Cleveland Guardians will take the field in the American League Wild Card Series against the Tampa Bay Rays, trying to stop some recent post-season trends.

First, the Guards will be trying to break an eight-game losing skein in the playoffs. After winning the first two games of the Division Series against the Yankees in 2017, they lost the last three, and then lost three straight to Houston in the same round in 2018.

In 2020, Cleveland made the post-season in the truncated season, and lost both games in the best-of-three series vs. New York.

So, it has been a long time since October 6, 2017, when Yan Gomes knocked in Austin Jackson with the winning run in the 13th inning to put the Tribe up 2-0 in the best-of-five series.

With Bryan Shaw recently designated for assignment, the only member of the current team to have played in that game is Jose Ramirez.

This series won’t be easy, and really, it shouldn’t be. We have narrowed baseball to the best teams in each league, and there are only 12 teams still taking the field. None of the games the rest of the year will have the Kansas City Royals or Los Angeles Angels involved.

Cleveland has a slight edge offensively, scoring 4.28 runs per game, ranking 6th in the AL, while the Rays cross the plate 4.12 times per contest, 11th best in the league.

Pitching wise though, the Tampa is 3rd in the Junior Circuit in ERA, just ahead of Terry Francona’s group. The three starting pitchers the Guardians will face are no pushovers.

In game one, Tampa will go with Shane McClanahan (12-8, 2.54 ERA, 194 strikeouts in 166-1/2 innings), who started the All-Star Game for the American League. He’s a southpaw, and the Guardians hit 17 points less, and have an OPS as a team that is 68 points worse against left-handers than righties for the season.

Of course, it’s not as though Cleveland is starting a slouch, going with Shane Bieber who went 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA. In the second half, those numbers are even better (9-3, 2.48). Bieber does pitch better on the road, going 5-5 with a 3.22 ERA at Progressive Field.

McClanahan actually pitched better on the road but made eight less starts there.

Bieber has made one post-season start, pitching 4-2/3 innings giving up seven runs to the Yankees in 2020.

Game 2 features Tyler Glasnow, who missed most of this year recovering from Tommy John surgery (two starts allowing one earned run in 6-2/3 frames) against Triston McKenzie (11-11, 2.96 ERA). McKenzie’s ERA was a half run lower in the second half and was better at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario this season.

And if there is a deciding game on Sunday, Tampa goes with Drew Rasmussen (11-7, 2.84 ERA) while Francona counters with Cal Quantrill (15-5, 3.38).

You can see neither team has a decided advantage in the pitching department, even at closer. While Emmanuel Clase was tremendous (42 saves, 1.36 ERA), Pete Fairbanks had a 1.13 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 24 innings this season.

It is likely going to come down to executing on offense, moving runners over and taking the extra base when the opportunity arises.

Although the networks seem to have banished this series to non-rating game times, this might be the most intriguing series to watch.

It won’t be easy. But it’s the playoffs, it shouldn’t be.

Overall, Not Spending Means Not Winning In MLB

When people talk about Major League Baseball teams that compete on small budgets, the most common names that are brought up are the Tampa Bay Rays and the Oakland A’s. Obviously, the Cleveland Indians want to join that club by slashing their payroll over the past three seasons.

In 2020, two of the teams that ranked in the bottom five in payroll made the playoffs. The AL Champion Rays were one, and the Miami Marlins were the other. The other three were all under the .500 mark, led? by the Pirates, who had the worst record in the sport at 19-41.

The others were the Orioles and Royals.

The last season in which 162 games were played, which is a better comparison because more teams made the post-season in ’20 due to the shortened season. Only the Rays, among the five lowest payrolls in the sport, made the playoffs. The other four teams, Toronto, Pittsburgh, Miami, and the Chicago White Sox were a combined 117 games under the break even mark.

We understand that sometimes payroll is tied to a team’s success. For example, rebuilding teams, organizations that choose to tear down their rosters to go with young talent instead of declining veterans, will have low payrolls. And in the 90’s, when the Indians had perpetually contending teams, we remember GM John Hart defending his high payroll by saying the Tribe had a lot of good players, so they should rank high on the list of teams with big salary expenditures.

In 2018, the lowest payrolls belonged to Tampa Bay (90-72), Oakland (97-65 and made the playoffs), White Sox (62-100), Miami (63-98), and Pittsburgh (82-79).

And the lowest payrolls in 2017 belonged to San Diego (71-91), Oakland (75-87), Milwaukee (86-76), Cincinnati (68-94), and of course, Tampa Bay (80-82).

Because we wanted to show five full seasons (not counting 2020) of data, in 2016, the teams spending the least on players were Tampa Bay (68-94), San Diego (68-94), Milwaukee (73-89), Oakland (69-93), and Miami (79-82).

When people talk about being successful with small payrolls, they are really only talking about two organizations: The Rays and the A’s. That’s two teams out of 30, which isn’t a good percentage. Only Tampa Bay last season made the World Series. So, having a low payroll doesn’t exactly translate to success in the post-season.

The other organizations which were mentioned several times earlier included Pittsburgh, which had one season over .500 and that was 82-79, and Miami, which probably only made the playoffs in 2020 because they expanded the post-season last year, and would they have made it if the season were 162 games?

It also seems like there is room for only one small payroll team in the post-season each season. So, this year, the Indians and their slashed payroll have to compete with Tampa, because as of today, the A’s have moved out of the bottom five for 2021.

The White Sox were in the bottom five many times in this piece, but again, they were in rebuild mode, waiting for their young prospects to be good, and then spending to complement them, and San Diego pretty much did the same, although they collected a ton of prospects and then traded many of them (not all) for established players.

Yes, we understand the success that Tampa Bay and Oakland have had, but they are the only two organizations have success. Can the Indians join them as teams that don’t spend and still can compete? The odds say no, and that’s way it’s a huge gamble.

If it doesn’t work, the folks that will pay the most are the people who buy tickets. The Dolan ownership has already burned a lot of bridges with the baseball fans here, this move could be the final straw.

Can The Indians Follow The Tampa Plan?

With the Tampa Bay Rays on the cusp of securing a World Series berth, we have seen many people saying if the Rays can do it with a very low payroll, then the Cleveland Indians can do the same, even after cutting the payroll the past couple of years.

This season, three of the five teams with the lowest payrolls (Rays, A’s, and Marlins) advanced to the post-season. But remember, this was a shortened 60 game schedule. Would the lack of spending show up in a full 162 game slate?

You would think one of the things that suffers for organizations who cannot (or will not) spend would be depth, and that wasn’t needed in 2020 with basically a two month season.

Therefore, we wanted to look at the past few seasons.

In 2019, the five lowest payrolls belonged to the Rays, Marlins, Pirates, Orioles, and White Sox. While Tampa Bay made the post-season, losing to Houston in the AL Division Series, the best record among the other four teams was the 72-89 mark by Chicago, who admittedly was at the end of a rebuilding phase.

They spent the following off-season opening up their wallets, and made the post-season in 2020.

In 2018, the five organizations spending the least on major league players were the A’s, White Sox, Rays, Pirates, and Brewers.

Oakland and Milwaukee made the playoffs, while Tampa Bay fell just short at 90-72. The Pirates actually finished over .500 that season, while the White Sox lost 100 games. Yes, it was a good year for teams not spending a lot.

The lowest five in payroll during the 2017 season were the Brewers, Rays, A’s, Padres, and Diamondbacks.

Only Arizona advanced to the playoffs with a 93-69 record. The Brewers were over the break even mark at 86-76, the only one of the four remaining teams to be above the .500 mark.

In 2016, the year the Indians went to the World Series, eventually losing in seven games to the Cubs, the low spenders were the Astros, Diamondbacks, Rays, Athletics, and Marlins.

Houston was above .500 at 84-78, but the other four squads were under .500, with the Marlins being the best of those teams at 79-82.

The last year we will check is 2015, and the five lowest payrolls that season belonged to Miami, Houston, Tampa Bay, Oakland, and the Indians.

The Astros, coming off the dismantling of their big league roster, made the Wild Card game, and the Tribe finished over .500 at 81-80, while the Rays were just under the break even mark.

Reviewing the last five full seasons, totaling 25 teams, only five made the playoffs with a bottom five payroll, while 10 teams finished over the .500 mark with minimal spending.

Only one team is on the list in every season, and that would be Tampa, and remarkably the worst season they had in that span was 68-94 in ’16, but every other year, they won 80 or more games.

Oakland appears three times, but they were rebuilding with their victory total increasing each year, going from 68 to 69, 75, 97 and 97.

No doubt the Rays have been successful winning with a low payroll, but they seem to be the only organization able to do it consistently.

Our point is it works for them, but it doesn’t appear any other team can compete consistently with a bottom five payroll. Either the payroll starts to increase because you have good players, and have to start to pay them, or you can be competitive for a year or two, but fall back because you can’t keep the good players.

We would be weary about trying a plan that seems to only work for one organization. What the Rays do is remarkable, they have a roster without really, any star players, but with a bunch of average to very good players.

Can that work for other teams? Logically, you would think it would, but the evidence shows no one else has been able to pull it off.

The Indians seem poised to try it going forward, or at least they are signaling to their fan base that they are. We have our doubts, though. We would stick with the tried and true methods of getting as many good players as possible, and keeping them.

Six Games To Decide The Playoffs For The Tribe

They always say the baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint, but with a week to go in the regular season, the Cleveland Indians are involved in a mad dash with the Tampa Bay Rays (and to a lesser extent the Oakland A’s) for the American League’s last playoff spot.

There are six games remaining for each team, and the Tribe is on the road for all of them, three with the White Sox, and three more with the Nationals, where the Indians will not be able to use the designated hitter.

Tampa has one more with Boston and a pair with the Yankees in Tampa, before heading north of the border to take on Toronto.

It does appear Terry Francona is getting some good news in that Jose Ramirez may return to the lineup tonight in Chicago. How effective Ramirez will be has to be seen, but judging from who has replaced him in the lineup, it won’t take much for him to be a positive impact.

Cleveland is able to start their current top three starting pitchers against the Sox, a team they have struggled with in 2019, going 7-9. Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, and Aaron Civale draw the assignments in an effort to hold down the Chicago offense.

Clevinger will be available if the Indians need to win the last game of the season to get into the wild card game or to force a one game playoff with the Rays to qualify for the wild card game.

The other tough decision for Francona and his staff is what to do with Franmil Reyes in the nation’s capital. Reyes has mostly been a DH since coming over at the trade deadline, but to us, the Indians can’t afford to take his bat out of the lineup in the most important series of the year.

We would put Reyes in LF, and if the Tribe can get a lead after five innings, take him out for defensive purposes. Something tells us that the skipper will use him for an important pinch-hitting appearance.

More bad news is the Nationals are currently a half game up on the Brewers for the wild card in the National League, so home field for that game could be at stake, meaning Washington could be playing their “A” lineup and their best starters for all three contests.

A week ago, there was a hope the Nats would have a spot wrapped up, and they might, but the home field is up for grabs. However, a 5-5 stretch for Dave Martinez’ squad has made that possibility less likely.

With the Rays win last night, the Indians are down a half game starting the series.

We feel the Indians can only lose one game at a minimum and still make the post-season. And they may have to win all six.

Another positive for the Tribe is the performance of Carlos Carrasco, who was huge in the series against his former organization. Carrasco picked up a save on Friday night going 1-1/3 innings, and Sunday night, got a key double play with men on first and third and one out in a tie game.

If he can continue this, he could be a big weapon for Francona in these six games.

So, it all comes down to this: Six games. Six games you have to win. The post-season for the Indians starts in reality tomorrow night. It’s a nerve wracking time for a baseball fan.

It’s A Pennant Race For Tribe, But Relax

It’s late August, and the Cleveland Indians are in a pennant race.

Actually, they are in two races. Most importantly, the AL Central Division is up for grabs, with the Minnesota Twins having a 2-1/2 game lead over the Tribe with 37 games left to play.

The two teams have six more games with each other, with an equal split between Cleveland and Minneapolis.

The Indians also are involved in a race for the wild card berths. They hold the top spot right now (meaning they would host the game) and lead Oakland by 2-1/2 games and Boston by eight in those standings.

We understand scoreboard watching is fun and it is interesting to see how Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Boston are doing on a daily basis, but we would caution it is too early to be overly concerned.

Why? Because there is a long way to go. And despite what some people think, none of the other teams are going to go 37-0 from here on out. All five teams, including the Indians are going to lose games.

The old adage is true. These teams want to just keep winning series. They can’t afford to panic losing games. Heck, before Sunday’s win against the Yankees, the Indians had just lost four of five.

Yeah, they went from a half game up to 2-1/2 down, but they are well within striking distance.

A good week for the Indians and a bad week for the Twins would put Terry Francona’s squad right back into first place.

Of course, this is all based on the Indians continuing to pile up victories, and after this week’s series with the Mets, 10 of the next 13 games for the Tribe are against the Royals, Tigers, and White Sox.

Likely, the final standings will come down to can the Twins dominate the Royals and Tigers like the Indians did, and can the Tribe improve their performance against the White Sox.

Cleveland has won 12 of 13 games vs. Detroit and won 10 of the last 13 against Kansas City. To date, the Twins are 6-3 vs. Detroit and 9-3 against the Royals.

However, the Indians have struggled vs. Chicago so far, losing seven of 12, where as Minnesota is 7-3 in contests with the Pale Hose.

For the Tribe, it could come down to how many times they see Lucas Giolito, and how they fare against him. He has dominated Cleveland in his two starts in 2019, while the Twins knocked him around when they faced him in late July.

Regardless, they have to improve their performance against Chicago. To be fair, they haven’t played the Sox since the offense started putting up more runs.

It’s been awhile since there has been an honest to goodness pennant race in Cleveland, so obsessing about the standings on a day by day basis isn’t healthy.

Until the two teams meet at Target Field on September 6th-8th, look at where the Tribe is on a weekly basis, that is as long as the Indians are winning. A losing streak is cause for concern for sure, but if the Indians keep winning series, they will be fine.

And it could be one of those years where winning 95 games doesn’t win the division. That’s the way it goes sometimes.

Left-Handed Relief Not There for Tribe.

Many fans of the Cleveland Indians have been concerned about the bullpen recently, mostly because of the health of closer Chris Perez and set up man Vinnie Pestano.

Yes, there was that weekend in Boston, when on consecutive days both Pestano and Perez blew games, which made for crushing defeats. But for the most part, the back end of the Tribe bullpen has been fine.

However, there is bigger problem for the Terry Francona’s bullpen, and that is the need for an effective left-handed pitcher to work late in games.

Right now, Nick Hagadone and Rich Hill have been a disaster in relief.

This past weekend, the Tampa Bay Rays scored 20 runs in the three game series. Thirteen of the runs were charged to Hagadone, Hill, and another lefty Scott Barnes, who was sent back to Columbus Saturday after giving up five runs on Friday night.

Barnes looked good in his two previous appearances, a three inning save against the Red Sox and a one inning stint against the Reds. In his appearance on Friday, he came in and gave up a pair of two run homers to left-handed hitters Matt Joyce and James Loney.

The other two guys, Hagadone and Hill have had problems throwing strikes consistently, a must for relief pitchers.

Hagadone is a power arm, but falls behind in counts and then when he comes into the strike zone, the batters smash the ball. He was last seen yesterday giving up a bomb Rays’ SS Yunel Escobar, currently batting .246.

When he can get ahead of hitters, Hagadone can be lethal, capable of striking out the best left-handed batters. But he has walked 11 in 15 innings this season, way too many, and that doesn’t count the hitters he puts into good hitters’ counts.

Nine of those walks have come against right-handed hitters.

Hill is more of a situational lefty, someone who specializes against tough left-handed hitters, the David Ortizs and Robinson Canos of the world, players who will not be pinch hit for when a lefty comes into the game.

To be fair, Francona has had to use him in some blowout games to save his main relievers, so Hill has seen more right-handed hitter than he should. He has faced 40 hitters from that side of the plate, more than Francona probably wants him to.

Those hitters are batting .353 against Hill with a 925 OPS, which means every right-handed hitter the southpaw faces turns into Miguel Cabrera.

However, Hill has walked six left-handed hitters and has allowed two home runs to them as well, meaning he isn’t exactly shutting down those guys either.

This is developing into a huge problem for Francona and pitching coach Mickey Calloway, because they need someone who can get those tough left-handed hitters out consistently.

If Hill and Hagadone can’t do the job, then it will be up to GM Chris Antonetti to find someone who can.

If you watch the games, it really isn’t Perez and Pestano that are killing the Tribe consistently it is the left-handed pitchers.

Too many walks and home runs allowed by the set up lefties can blow up an entire bullpen.