Guards Make Contact, But Need To Know Strike Zone

The Cleveland Guardians have been known over the past two seasons as a team that emphasizes contact, putting the ball in play.

It’s a sound theory. Teams that do not strikeout much tend to be good offensive clubs. After the Guardians, the team in the American League with the least whiffs are Houston (4th in the AL in runs/game), Boston (5th), Toronto (8th), and New York (10th).

The Twins lead the league in striking out, and they are 9th, while Seattle is next and they rank 7th.

We have made note since the season started that making contact is not the same as having plate discipline. The league leader in walks in the AL is Texas, and they lead the league in runs scored.

The next three teams in drawing walks are the Twins, Astros, and Angels (6th in runs).

The Guardians do make a lot of contact, but they are a very young team and very few of them now how to work counts and take advantage of the fact that they can make contact.

Jose Ramirez, who does chase a bit because he understands he is the main man in the batting order, still walks more than he strikes out, with 53 walks and 51 whiffs. And Steven Kwan also is very close to having as many walks as strikeouts (49 BB, 57 Ks).

Here are players currently on the big-league roster with over 100 at bats who have struck out three times as much as they have walked: Andres Gimenez (84:27), Will Brennan (45:11), Gabriel Arias (72:24), Oscar Gonzalez (26:5).

And that speaks to awareness of the strike zone. Hitters always look at the screen when they get back to the dugout, so they see their at bats instantly.

Two players, Gimenez and Bo Naylor, simply can’t lay off the high fastball. Pitchers know that and until something changes, they will continue to exploit it.

And that’s why strike zone judgment is important. If pitchers know a batter will chase pitches, they will continue to throw that pitch until a hitter demonstrates either they can handle it or lay off it.

We were always taught they if a hitter gets ahead in the count, especially 2-0 or 3-1, they should zone in for a particular pitch in a particular area so they can drive it. We watch many of the Guardians’ hitters and there just doesn’t seem to be a plan.

And our guess is that hitting coach Chris Valaika is telling them when to be selective. He certainly isn’t telling them to make weak contact.

We also see a lot of Guardians swinging at first pitches which is fine if the guy on the mound is trying to get ahead of a hitter. If the pitch is out over the plate, fine. But not to pick on Brennan, but we’ve seen him swing at first pitches that are off the inside corner.

That seems like just swinging at it just to swing, not looking for a particular pitch.

As we said before, the Guardians are a very young team and mastering the strike zone can be gained from experience. But making contact doesn’t make you a good hitting team unless you can be selective as well.

Why do we like walks? They aren’t outs. And that’s a good thing.

Guardians Make Contact, But Don’t Walk

Last season, the Cleveland Guardians decided to zag when everyone else was zigging and embraced a philosophy of making more contact at the plate. They struck out the least times in the American League, and finished sixth in the league in runs scored per game.

This year, they are doing the same, but have dropped to 12th in the AL in scoring. Last year, they were 14th in home runs and in 2023 they are last.

Other teams have labeled them as pesky, but there is one thing we thought would improve this season, but really hasn’t. Last season, they were 11th in drawing walks and so far this season, they have dropped a spot and rank 12th.

So, while they make contact more than anyone else, they aren’t particularly adept at working counts and fouling off borderline pitches until they get something they can make solid contact with.

The team with the second least strikeouts in the AL is the Houston Astros. They rank 11th in walks drawn and are 8th in runs scored. They are 9th in homers.

Toronto fans the third least times and are one spot above Houston is terms of runs scored and walks, and is one spot behind them in round trippers.

For right now, it appears the contact approach isn’t doing teams any big favors, except for the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are second last in the National League in striking out and is 3rd in the league in runs scored.

Let us say here, we like the more contact approach, and we like the Guardians’ organizational philosophy of drafting and developing guys who make contact and teaching them to drive the ball in the minor leagues.

We also don’t have a problem with strikeouts if it comes with power and without a total disregard for knowledge of the strike zone. Minnesota leads the AL in whiffs, and they aren’t scoring many more runs than the Guardians.

Maybe better recognition of the strike zone comes with more experience and as the young Cleveland hitters mature, they will be able to work more walks. The only Guardian hitter with more walks than whiffs is Jose Ramirez, with 33 bases on balls and 29 punchouts.

Both Andres Gimenez (47 Ks, 15 BB) and Amed Rosario (60K, 19 BB) have strikeout to walk ratios of over three to one. And neither are what you would consider power bats. Myles Straw doesn’t have a home run since 2021 and has fanned 57 times with just 26 walks.

And Will Brennan doesn’t have the amount of at bats as the other three mentioned, but he has just six walks vs. 31 strikeouts. The four hitters listed have combined for 10 home runs.

We would like to see all three of these guys get on base more often by walking, and with their speed (see previous blog) they could be converting some of those walks into doubles by stealing bases.

Currently, Cleveland has no one ranking in the top ten in the AL in on base percentage, Ramirez leads the team at .360 and only Steven Kwan is among the leaders in walks, tied for 10th.

By the way, the Guardians have drawn four or more walks in 29 games this season. Their record is 18-11 in those games, averaging almost six runs per game. We understand that makes sense, because mediocre pitchers usually walk more batters.

Since the Guardians don’t have a lot of home run power, for their approach to work, it would seem they need more baserunners. And taking more walks would accomplish that goal.

Why Have Guardians Stopped Stealing?

When the Cleveland Guardians played the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday night, we heard the broadcast team describe both teams as “they like to run”. The Brewers rank 6th in the National League in steals, while the Guardians are 7th.

The reality is while Cleveland started the season running quite a bit, that has waned as the season has gone on.

The Guards stole 35 bases in March/April in the first 28 games of the year. Since then, they have played 49 games and have only stolen 22 bases. They’ve effectively stopped running.

Granted, they were very successful in the first month, being caught just seven times. In May, they swiped 13 bases and were caught just three times, so when they did run, it worked.

In June, they are just a bit above the break-even point, picking up nine bags, while getting caught on eight attempts.

Cleveland ranks last in the majors in home runs, so it would seem they better use the running game to their advantage because it is unlikely they will score with one swing of the bat.

Some of the lack of running comes from not being on base. The team’s two leaders in steals, Steven Kwan and Myles Straw have seen their on base percentage decrease since April. Kwan stole seven bags in eight tries by the end of April. He’s stolen just three in each month succeeding.

Straw pilfered eight bases in the first 28 games this year, but has stolen just two since, incredibly none since May 18th.

The two other Guardians who would seem to be able to put up big stolen base numbers, Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario have also declined in this category.

Gimenez stole six in March/April being caught just once, but has stolen just two bags since, while Rosario swiped five in the first month, three more in May, and hasn’t even made an attempt since the first of June.

We understand the hesitation in having Rosario run since he hits ahead of Jose Ramirez, but if Ramirez doesn’t get a hit, why not run then?

Jose Ramirez is also a stolen base threat, but we totally get him not running as much. Conserve his energy as much as possible. He’s that important to the team.

This weekend showed a difference in the philosophies between the Brewers and Guardians. Twice, Milwaukee runners (Christian Yelich and Blake Perkins) ran on the first pitch after getting on base. When was the last time a Cleveland player did that?

When Myles Straw pinch-ran for Tyler Freeman (who went from 1st to 3rd on a wild pitch earlier in the game, but…) in the 8th on Sunday, it took him two batters to attempt to steal.

Now, we are sure some will say the Brewers had two runners picked off. Our response would be that’s the risk you have to take if you are going to run, and again, with the Guardians’ lack of pop, they need to be aggressive on the base paths.

Cleveland is very effective in taking the extra base. They are 5th in the AL in doubles and 2nd in triples. And they go first to third on base hits with the best of them.

We don’t know why the Guardians have stopped stealing since the first month of the year. It’s odd to be sure. Is it a fear of having a runner thrown out? Is it trying to minimize wear and tear on players?

It is probably more apt to say the Guardians are a very good baserunning team rather than a team that likes to steal. We say, why not be good at both?

The Rosario Dilemma

Last season, Amed Rosario was a key cog in the Cleveland Guardians winning the American League Central Division championship.

He was third in the league in hits with 180 and led the AL in triples with nine. He was a big reason the Guardians’ offense put pressure on opposing defenses. Along with leadoff man Steven Kwan and #3 hole hitter Jose Ramirez, the Guards would go first to third relentlessly with three speedsters at the top of the lineup.

Rosario isn’t an on base machine, because he rarely walks, but he hit .283 and had a .312 on base percentage, so he was effective where he was at.

However, the shortstop’s value as an everyday player comes from his batting average because as we said, he doesn’t walk, and he really isn’t an extra base hit machine either.

For example, last year Rosario slugged .403 about the same as Kwan. What makes Kwan a better than average offensive player was his .373 on base average, about 60 points higher than the man who follows him to the plate most nights.

FYI, Kwan’s OBP has dipped this season to .342.

The three seasons Rosario had an OPS+ of over 100 (that’s average), his batting averages were .287 (2019), .282 (2021), and .283 (2022). If he’s not hitting at around the .275 level, he’s a poor offensive player. Right now, he’s at 65.

Now you make think that’s true for everyone, but it’s not. Currently, Josh Naylor has an OPS+ of 109 and he’s batting just .253. But Naylor walks a bit more and has 16 extra base hits, making his slugging percentage .437.

The right-handed hitter currently has the worst OPS+ among Cleveland regulars, yes worse than Myles Straw (77), Mike Zunino (73), and Will Brennan (82). Another disappointment for the Guardians is free agent signee Josh Bell, and he’s at 92.

Cleveland lives with Straw’s below average offense (for how much longer, we will see) because he’s an elite defensive centerfielder, a Gold Glove winner a year ago.

Rosario is a below average defender. He ranks last on the Guardians in defensive runs saved, just behind Zunino. You can probably make the argument that of the shortstops currently on the big league roster, including Andres Gimenez, who played the position in the minor leagues, he’s the worst defensively.

That list would include Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, and Brayan Rocchio, who has played a pair of games there.

So what gives?

We realize many people will use the argument that Rosario is a close friend of Jose Ramirez, who lobbied for a contract extension for him last season, but we refuse to believe that’s the reason, management keeps writing his name in the lineup.

We think it’s the usual patience vs. stubbornness we see from the organization all the time. They believe based on the past two seasons, Rosario will get hot any day now, and the team will reap the benefits.

But that’s the problem with hitters whose entire worth is based on batting average and another problem with players who don’t have an idea of the strike zone. Rosario’s strikeout to walk ratio for his career is 607:136, he’s never walked more than 31 times in a season.

His walk ratio is actually up this year (5.8% compared to his lifetime mark of 4.5%), but his strikeout rate (22.3%) is also higher (19.9%). Pitchers usually figure out they can get these guys out without throwing strikes, thus the effectiveness wanes.

We aren’t saying to “run away” from Rosario, as Francona likes to say. However, we are saying perhaps it’s time to see what Freeman and/or Arias can do with increased playing time.

That Rosario can be a free agent after this season, doesn’t help his argument.

Guardians Failing In All Aspects Right Now

The Cleveland Guardians are close to reaching the 1/3rd point of the season, so claims that it is “still early” are ringing hollow. Right now, there are more negatives about certain facets of the ballclub than positives.

The offense has been abysmal, ranking last in the American League in runs scored, behind even to woeful Oakland A’s, and a quarter run per game behind the next lowest squad the Detroit Tigers.

The league average OPS is 721 and the Guards have exactly one player above average, their perennial all-star Jose Ramirez. The players who rank behind Ramirez(804) are Steven Kwan (678) and Josh Naylor (670).

That is, of course, unless you count Tyler Freeman in his 20 plate appearances. Freeman sits at 771 in a very, very small sample size.

As a team the Guardians are last in OPS and slugging percentage and are 13th in on base percentage. It doesn’t take a genius to tell anyone that if you don’t get players on base and once they are on, you cannot move them, you are going to have a problem scoring runs.

They pride themselves on making contact, but too often they aren’t very patient at the plate. Last night, Will Brennan’s first plate appearance involved Cardinals’ pitcher John Flaherty making five pitches to get him out, and not one was a strike.

The pitching staff is respectable, ranking 7th in the AL in staff ERA, but the bullpen has been a big issue as of late, and the signs tell us Terry Francona is losing a bit of faith in his relief corps.

Last Sunday, he allowed Shane Bieber to go the distance in spite of having a jam in the bottom of the 8th inning. Bieber also stayed in perhaps one hitter too long Friday, walking an extra hitter, before Trevor Stephan came on.

Stephan had to be relieved in the bottom of the 8th after getting into trouble, but thankfully, Enyel De Los Santos got a double play grounder.

James Karinchak has walked 16 in just 21.1 innings. So, he can’t be used in a close game unless there is absolutely no other option.

Closer Emmanuel Clase leads the league in saves with 17, and also he’s not walking people (5 in 25 IP) and not giving up the long ball (just 1 HR allowed), his strikeouts are down (18) and the balls put in play are finding holes.

Cleveland relievers are giving up the long ball in bunches, and last weekend’s series in New York was a microcosm, as home runs allowed changed the course of two games.

There is an old baseball axiom the says, you show me a bad bullpen and I will show you a bad team.

The defense also hasn’t been up to par. Amed Rosario has messed up some routine plays and the wild pitch epidemic continues, the Guardians were 11th in this category a year ago, and sixth this year.

And in trying to create time for Gabriel Arias, he’s playing rightfield and let’s just say the inexperience shows every so often.

Also, because the hitters cannot get on base, Cleveland cannot use the running game. The Guardians had two stolen bases twelve times in their first 27 games. In the last 23 contests, they’ve done it just once.

Right now, the Guardians are lacking in every aspect of the game. Yet, they are still just 4.5 games out of the division lead. We are getting to the point in the season where patience and stubbornness is becoming one.

Lots Have Gone Wrong For Guards, But They Are Hanging In

This season certainly hasn’t been easy for the Cleveland Guardians so far. The offense has sputtered, ranking last in the American League in runs scored per game.

They are last in the AL in home runs and aren’t really close to the team with the second least dingers, the Detroit Tigers (Cleveland has 23, Detroit 31). They don’t strikeout but are only eighth in the league in walks.

Terry Francona’s teams are usually second half teams and if the 2023 Guardians are going to make the playoffs and/or win the Central Division title, they will have to be that again.

The hitting did show signs of life over the weekend, well, at least Josh Naylor and Amed Rosario did. Still, the Guardians need Andres Gimenez, Josh Bell, and that duo to get hot over a period of longer than three games.

The Guards have had 28 of their 40 games decided by one or two runs, a whopping total and one that, if it continues will take a helluva toll of the bullpen and also cause ulcers for many of their fans.

Getting a few more players other than Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan contributing to the offense would certainly help in providing more than one or two run margins at times.

It has been tough for Cleveland to get come from behind victories this year because the bullpen hasn’t been able to hold opponents if they get out to an early lead. The relievers have given up 17 home runs, almost the same total as the starters (20), need we remind you the latter pitch a lot more innings.

The defense hasn’t helped either. The Guardians are ninth in the league in errors with 21, and defense has been more important this season because the pitching staff ranks at the bottom of the AL in striking hitters out, so more balls have been put in play.

The catching, a position viewed organizationally as a defense first spot, hasn’t been up to last year’s standards, allowing the most passed balls with five and the pitching staff ranks fifth in wild pitches. Last year, Cleveland catchers had just two passed balls and ranked fifth last in wild pitches.

In the past, the organization has sacrificed offense for defense, but if you aren’t getting the defense, why not take a look at Bo Naylor, hitting .256 with nine homers at Columbus and has a 925 OPS because he’s walked 32 times.

By the way, the last hit by a Cleveland catcher? Try April 29th.

Rightfield has become a large hole. Oscar Gonzalez hit .192 with just four extra base hits and was sent back to AAA. Will Brennan is hitting just .193 with five extra base hits, and is being platooned with converted infielder Gabriel Arias, who has struck out in 26 of his 61 plate appearances.

You have to wonder if Tyler Freeman is the next middle infielder to get a try in RF. Freeman has 11 big league at bats with four hits, including a double, and was hitting .329 (950 OPS) at AAA.

Despite all of these problems, the Guardians are sitting just two games below the .500 mark. Hopefully, Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale will be back by the end of May, adding depth to the starting rotation.

And let’s also hope what we saw over the weekend is the start of the offense being more consistent.

By the way, some easy wins would be nice for Francona and the coaching staff and the fan base.

Sputtering Offense Plaguing The Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians’ offense started off this season much like they ended last season. Not a lot of home runs, but a lot of base hits.

After Seattle’s Luis Castillo, one of the best pitchers in the game, held them to four hits in the season opener, the Guards had nine hits or more in six of the next nine contests and drew at least three walks in all of them.

In the next 23 games, Cleveland has had nine hits in just six games, and drawn at least three walks in just a dozen of them. When you aren’t hitting home runs, and Terry Francona’s squad is last in the American League in round trippers, if you aren’t getting men on base consistently, it is tough to have people cross the plate.

The Guardians averaged five runs per game in the first 10 games, since then, they’ve scored just 70 runs, an average of just over three per contest. It’s tough to win any games at any level, when you are getting just three runs per night.

Cleveland was 6-4 after ten games, and just 9-14 afterwards.

Bill James contended if you had a .350 on base percentage and a .450 slugging percentage, you were a very good offensive player. Not even Jose Ramirez can lay claim to those statistics, although he is close, with a .371 OBP and a .447 slugging average.

The Guards only have one hitter getting on base at a 35% clip and that is Steven Kwan, who has a .358 on base average. Besides Ramirez, they don’t have anyone even close to the .450 slugging percentage. The next closest is Mike Zunino at .397. More about him later.

Looking at the Guardians from a WAR standpoint, Zunino’s slugging is about all he is contributing as once again, Cleveland catchers rank last in the AL in this category.

Guards’ pitchers were 11th in the AL in wild pitches a year ago, and they are 2nd this season. And the catchers are second in the league in passed balls behind only the White Sox.

Also, Zunino’s back up, Cam Gallagher is just 2 for 27 with a bat in his hand, with two RBI, both coming in the first week of the season in Oakand.

The next worst position this year for Cleveland is shortstop. Amed Rosario is a slow starter, hitting .177 in April 2021, and .211 in April 2022. This year was no different as he batted just .227.

However, his strikeout rate is the highest since his rookie season (28.7%), and he’s leading the team in grounding into double plays, which he did a year ago. He’s also leading the Guardians in errors with six.

Hopefully, Rosario will start to get hot in May and resemble the hitter he was last season. He’s never going to walk a lot, but he did have 180 hits last season, and with the new rules aiding the running game, his speed could be an asset.

Remember, the Guardians went through a 13 game stretch at the end of August through early September a year ago where they scored just 26 runs. Hopefully, they will come out of it any day now.

The starting pitching seems to have come along with the starters consistently giving the team at least five innings. That has lessened the burden on the bullpen, which is still leaking oil a bit.

You know what would really help the pitching? Getting some runs early and then adding on.

First Checkpoint For The Guardians

Tomorrow is May 1st, and yesterday evening, the Cleveland Guardians played their 27th game of the season, the 1/6th point of the year. That’s the time we take our first overall view of the team.

Under Terry Francona, this first part of the year is the “feeling out” period. Look at Cleveland’s record at this point over the last six seasons:

2023: 13-14
2022: 13-14
2021: 14-13
2020: 17-10
2019: 15-12
2018: 15-12

The best record came in the pandemic shortened season of 2020. It’s an old baseball adage that you can’t win a pennant (now, post-season berth) in April, but you can lose one, and the Guardians certainly don’t screw up a season at the beginning.

So far, it’s the offense that hasn’t lived up to expectations. The Guards are currently 12th in the American League in runs scored at 3.85. The home run power, which the front office tried to address with the signing of Josh Bell, hasn’t materialized yet, as Cleveland ranks last in the league in round trippers.

What the Guards do well is walk, ranking second in the AL in bases on balls. They are 8th in on-base percentage, and 13th in slugging percentage. They get doubles and triples but no long balls.

Individually, only the great Jose Ramirez and Mike Zunino have performed up to expectations with the bat. The latter has struck out a ton, as advertised, but he’s walked a higher rate than ever.

Steven Kwan has gotten on base (.358 OBP), but so far, he hasn’t driven the ball, with only four extra base hits (three 2B, one 3B).

The players counted on for middle of the order production have all got off to slow starts. Josh Naylor is hitting .214 with 3 HR and 15 RBI (619 OPS). Bell is at .214, 3 HR, 13 RBI (714 OPS), and Oscar Gonzalez is at .188, 1 HR, 4 RBI (509 OPS) and is now sharing time in right field with Will Brennan.

Naylor is starting to look like a platoon player, going 2 for 22 vs. southpaws this year and his career mark vs. LHP is .199 with a 538 OPS. Unfortunately, right now the Guardians don’t have a right-handed hitting alternative.

The pitching ranks 7th in ERA, but the starting rotation has been riddled by injuries to Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale. McKenzie has been out all year, while Civale has made just two appearances.

Compounding the injuries has been the relative ineffectiveness of Cal Quantrill (1-2, 5.40 ERA) and Zach Plesac (1-1, 7.59). Quantrill has made two solid starts, but also two poor ones, while Plesac has just one good one, his second outing vs. Seattle.

On the year, he has pitched 21-1/3 innings, and allowed a whopping total of 37 hits and 18 earned runs.

Last week saw the promotion of two of the Guardians’ top pitching prospects, lefty Logan Allen and right-hander Tanner Bibee. Both pitched very well, and if they continue to do so, the organization is going to have to make a decision.

The strength of the team has been pitching and the rotation is the backbone. Francona depends on the starters to eat innings, lessening the burden on the relief corps. The Guardians need Quantrill to pitch like he did a year ago, and Allen and Bibee to hold down the fort.

The ‘pen has been sporadic, but over the last week have started doing better. They have been allowing too many home runs. James Karinchak in particular has struggled, but Eli Morgan has pitched like he did early last season.

The Guardians need to get the offense going more consistently and have the starters pitch much better. It’s still early and history says Francona’s teams get better as the year goes on.

Hopefully, history repeats itself.

Guardians Should Add Another Division Title

It’s finally here. If you are a baseball fan, it’s what you looked forward to since the last out of the World Series. You knew it was getting closer when spring training started, but now it’s here.

Opening Day!

When we were younger, the start of a new season held hope for a Cleveland Indians’ fan in the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s. We thought maybe this year we would catch lightning in a bottle and could get to the World Series.

Of course, that was a young, foolish thought. It wasn’t until 1995 that it happened, and really, despite our criticism at times of the team, they’ve been good more often than not since then.

We think the Guardians will win the AL Central this season, and perhaps last season’s surprising campaign can be the jumping off point for another run of post-season appearances. It’s a very young roster with a very strong farm system.

Besides the catching spot, currently being held by veterans until prospect Bo Naylor is ready, which should happen sometime this summer, the oldest Guardians are perennial MVP Jose Ramirez and newcomer Josh Bell.

Ramirez is simply one of the best players in baseball, and probably the most underrated. Recently, ESPN (yeah, we know) ranked him as the 13th best player in the game, which is ridiculous. There simply aren’t 12 baseball players right now better than Jose Ramirez.

In the last six seasons, he has finished in the top four in the MVP balloting four times and finished sixth in another year. 13th? It shows how little the people who cover baseball at the four letter network know about the game.

If Bell has an average season for him, say 25 HR and 90 RBI, it will lend some thump to a lineup that ranked 14th in the AL in homers last season. Although the Cleveland lineup did a great job producing runs considering the lack of power (6th in the AL in runs), having the ability to put a tally on the board with one swing of the bat helps.

The players to watch are Andres Gimenez and Steven Kwan. Can they improve on last year’s numbers? They are 24 and 26 respectively, so they should still be on the upward path of their careers. If they do, they will put up special numbers.

A baseball mantra is a team can’t have enough pitching, and this has been the pillar of the Cleveland organization over the past 10 years. They’ve had three Cy Young Award winners, and one of them, Shane Bieber remains the staff ace.

Triston McKenzie’s injury puts a bit of a damper on the rotation, but if Aaron Civale can stay healthy, that’s a plus. The biggest question mark has to be Zach Plesac, who hasn’t been effective over the last two seasons.

By the middle of the year, hurlers like Gavin Williams (5-4, 1.96 ERA at AA and A) and Tanner Bibee (8-2, 2.17 ERA at AA and A) could be ready to take his spot.

We are particularly bullish on Williams, who has the profile of a workhorse ace at 6’6″ and 255 pounds. He fanned 149 batters in 115 innings last season. Bibee is no slouch in that regard, whiffing 167 hitters in 133 frames.

The bullpen is the most volatile part of any baseball team, but when the back of the ‘pen is anchored by Emmanuel Clase, that’s a reason to feel somewhat comfortable. Over the past two years, Clase has a 1.33 ERA and has allowed only five home runs in 148 appearances. He’s also only walked 26.

We never take for granted a winning baseball team in Cleveland. After 30 years of hoping to find a winning season, this is rather fun.

Not Many Guards Have Track Records

The Cleveland Guardians were the youngest team in the league last year and won the American League Central Division championship.

It is certainly great to see a young team do so well, because it is a portent of things to come, but it also means it is tough to project for the following season because very few Guardian players have a track record.

First, from the team standpoint, the last time the youngest team in baseball made the playoffs was 1986, when the Mets did it and won the World Series. They finished second in the NL East in ’87, and won the division in ’88.

They were runners-up in the division the following two campaigns, and then fell into the abyss falling all the way to 59-103 in 1993.

The 1970 Cincinnati Reds were the youngest team in the league and lost the World Series to Baltimore, then fell to fourth in 1971. That team featured Johnny Bench (22), Dave Concepcion (22), Bernie Carbo (22), and Bobby Tolan (24). Heck, Tony Perez was just 28 and Pete Rose was 29 that season.

Following that dip, they reeled off a ten-year span where they won six division titles, three NL pennants and two world championships.

Here’s hoping that’s the future for the Guardians.

There is an old saying in baseball that players will for the most part put on the numbers that are on the back of their baseball cards. The only players on the Opening Day roster for Cleveland that have established levels of performance are Jose Ramirez, Josh Bell, and Amed Rosario among the everyday players.

Even Andres Gimenez, who was marvelous in ’22, has only had one season of over 210 plate appearances, and you guessed it, that was last season.

While we believe a player like Steven Kwan has the type of skill set that will allow him to succeed at the big-league level, there is no track record for him.

And as for players with shaky strikeout to walk ratios, like Oscar Gonzalez and Gimenez, it remains to be seen if they can improve that ratio with more experience.

Even with the pitching staff there is uncertainty. If Shane Bieber is healthy, and everything points to that this spring, he’s the ace. And actually, we feel strongly that is Aaron Civale can stay off the injured list, he gives the Guards a good chance in his starts.

We love Triston McKenzie, but he’s one year away from a season with a 4.95 ERA and some issues commanding the strike zone. We are confident in him, but there is a bit of uncertainty.

Zach Plesac? The question mark there is well used. His last two seasons have produced ERAs of 4.67 and 4.31. And he missed time both years with injuries. And can Cal Quantrill continue to win games despite a low strikeout percentage.

The bullpen is the most volatile part of a baseball team anyway, and the Guardians are no exception. Emanuel Clase’s stuff is ungodly, and James Karinchak is well, James Karinchak, but can Trevor Stephan pitch like he did a year ago? And what about Eli Morgan, who struggled in the last two months in ’22.

We know one thing, Terry Francona will give everything ample time to play out, and he will drive us fans crazy doing it.

We believe this is the start of a period of success for the Cleveland Guardians, but with so many relatively new players to the big leagues, we have some caution as well.