Tag: st louis cardinals

Tribe Fans: Good Team or Not, This Team Is In It.

After the first two games after the All Star break, the Cleveland Indians lost two games in very similar ways.  They didn’t score runs, their defense was shaky, and their bullpen couldn’t get big outs when needed.

That started the fair weather Tribe fans trembling with fear and apprehension.  See, this team just isn’t good enough.

That’s silly.  Sure, this team isn’t the same as the teams that slugged their way to division titles in the mid to late 1990’s, but they are just a 1-1/2 out of first place.  If you are that close, anything can happen.

In 2006, just seven years ago, the St. Louis Cardinals won 83 games in the regular season and went on to win the World Series.

Nineteen years earlier, the Minnesota Twins won 85 games in the regular season and were outscored on the season by 20 runs, yet still won the World Series.

You know what they call both of those teams?  Champions!  It doesn’t matter how you get to the playoffs as long as you do, and once you are there everyone has a chance.  This isn’t the NBA where teams that just get in to the post-season really have no chance.

Does the current edition of the team have warts?  Of course.  The starting pitchers, outside of Justin Masterson, have problems completing six innings, putting a large burden on the bullpen.

In turn, the relief corps has been buckling under the weight put on them by the starters, leading to some shaky times for fans when manager Terry Francona has to go to the ‘pen.

Save for Jason Kipnis, the lineup has been inconsistent, suffering through off years by SS Asdrubal Cabrera and 1B Nick Swisher.  With both of them struggling, the middle of the order has been a vacuum, and we can anticipate opposing hurlers not giving Kipnis much to hit if either can’t pick it up.

The hitter that carried the team for the first month of the season, Mark Reynolds, is hit under .200 since the first of May and right now, you would have to be surprised if he made contact, let alone get a hit.

But the team is still just 1-1/2 out of first place.

National baseball writers continue to tell everyone how the Detroit Tigers, who are the defending American League Champions, and currently lead the AL Central, are a superior team, and really the Tribe should be playing for a wild card.

But Francona’s guys are just a game and a half out of first place.

Last season, the same national writers felt the Baltimore Orioles and Oakland A’s were surprising teams that wouldn’t be able to hold up and stay in the race coming down the stretch.  Both teams made the playoffs though.

So, why can’t the Indians pull it off as well.

Lost in the angst about losing the first two contests after the break is that the Tigers also lost, keeping the Indians at the same deficit as they were going into the All-Star game.

The optimistic fans says no problem, they haven’t lost any ground.  The pessimist bemoans the opportunity to overtake Detroit and has a “see, I told you so” attitude.

The only thing that matters is that the Indians stay close to the Tigers.  Whether they are a great team or not, this ballclub is in contention.

Sit back and enjoy it.

MW

 

 

Why Asdrubal Should Stay

With the major league trading deadline coming in less than three weeks, the rumor mill has been very active, especially regarding the Cleveland Indians.

Most of the supposed deals have the Tribe getting pitching, since they rank 12th in the American League in ERA, and recently their bullpen has provided more ups and downs than the roller coasters at Cedar Point.

However, one that hit this week really shocked us.  ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that Cleveland is talking to the St. Louis Cardinals about SS Asdrubal Cabrera, who is having a down year to this point in the season.

While the Cardinals have a lot of young pitching in their organization, this seems to be the kind of move that would be made if a team was out of the pennant race or in the off-season, not 2-1/2 games out as we approach the All-Star break.

This is true for several reasons.  First, Cabrera isn’t hitting as well as he has in the past, meaning his market value is down.  Here are the shortstop’s OPS over the last few years–

2009     799
2010     673
2011     792
2012     762
2013     722

His lifetime OPS is 752, so right now he is 30 points below his average season, and around 70 points behind his best seasons of ’09 and ’11.  At 27 years old, he figures to still be capable of getting back to the 800 level.

Many people feel the Tribe can afford to deal the two-time all-star because of the availability of Mike Aviles, but that is poorly thought out for two reasons.  Aviles is a much better hitter as a part-time player, hitting just .250 in his lone year as a regular in Boston last season.  His career batting average is .275.

Also, who would replace Aviles on the bench?  The Indians’ success this season has come in part because their bench is very strong, getting big production out of players like Aviles, Ryan Raburn, Jason Giambi, and Yan Gomes.

Who would take over Aviles’ role as the utility infielder?  That’s a big question that GM Chris Antonetti has to think about.

A trade would make sense if the Tribe would be getting back a proven major league starting pitcher in return, but it doesn’t appear that would be the case.  Most of the names involved are Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Michael Wacha, and Carlos Martinez, all top 10 prospects for the Cardinals.

However, out of the four of them, Miller has the most experience, a total of 19 big league starts.  As good as Miller is reported to be, there is no evidence that he will be a successful starter for a team in a race for the playoffs.  Plus, his highest inning total in the minors is 151, meaning the Cleveland front office would want to limit his to around 175 for the season.

He has already thrown 104 on the season.

This trade would make a lot more sense in the winter.  By then, prime prospect SS Francisco Lindor will have half a year at the AA level, meaning he could be promoted to the bigs sometime during the 2014 season.

The Indians could get away with a half-year of Aviles starting as short with Lindor taking over in the middle of the year. Don’t forget the Tribe has a plethora of middle infield players on the horizon, with SS Ronny Rodriguez playing at Akron now and maybe moving to Columbus soon.

Dealing a player like Cabrera for pitching help would make sense since the Tribe would be dealing from strength.  Just not now with the team in contention.

That just doesn’t make sense.

KM