Is ’13 Tribe’s Success Sustainable?

The cynical Indians fans among us will say it’s the same ol’, same ol’ for this year’s Tribe.

They have hit the season’s quarter pole at 24-17, on a pace to win over 90 games under new manager Terry Francona. However, last year they were 23-18 at this point, but finished the season 68-94 and in fourth place.

In 2011, they were 26-15 after 41 games, and actually got to 30-15 before falling apart and finishing 80-82. They went a combined 21-32 in June and July, reminiscent of the June swoons of the late 60’s and 70’s.

So why is this year any different? Let’s take a look at the make up of those two teams.

Here are the regular players on that 2011 edition of the Indians. The regular 2B was Orlando Cabrera, who contributed a few big hits early, but by June he couldn’t hit to save his life and was traded to the Giants before the end of July.

The 3B was Jack Hannahan, a whipping boy for this blog. He’s an excellent defender, but simply cannot hit.

Then manager Manny Acta was also the recipient of what may be the last gasp of Grady Sizemore’s career. That April, Sizemore hit .378 with 4 HR and 9 RBIs. The rest of the year, he hit .193, and hasn’t been in a big league since.

As for the pitching, Justin Masterson went 5-0 in April and had his best season overall, but because of a lack of run support, he was 5-6 by the end of June. They also had Carlos Carrasco emerging, as he was 8-6 with a 4.21 ERA at the end of June. Josh Tomlin also proved to be a solid starter.

In 2012, some of the regular players were 1B Casey Kotchman, Hannahan, and left field was a mishmosh of Johnny Damon, Shelley Duncan, and Ezequiel Carrera, none of whom are currently in the major leagues. It is no wonder that the Indians finished 13th in the AL in runs scored.

Masterson was having a mediocre campaign, and the good start early was fueled by veteran Derek Lowe, who was 6-3 through the end of May. And the bullpen was outstanding before running out of gas from overwork.

The Cleveland pitching staff ranked last in the American League in ERA.

This year, Francona has a lineup that can score runs, ranking 4th in the league in runs scored. Whereas the past few years, the Indians had to put out a squad that had three or four players who really weren’t a threat with a bat in their hands, in 2013, the skipper has used lineup where Michael Brantley has batted eighth.

Last year, the left fielder spent most of his time hitting in the #5 hole.

Instead of Kotchman, Orlando Cabrera, and Hannahan, this year’s team has Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, and Mark Reynolds.

The starting pitching is still a question mark, but Masterson looks to be the same guy he was in ’11, having a solid year, and Zack McAllister provides solid outings pretty much every time he goes out there.

The wild cards have been Ubaldo Jimenez, who has put together four straight solid outing (although it would be better if he could work longer) and Scott Kazmir, who looks closer to the former all-star he was than the guy who pitched in the independent league last season.

As for the bullpen, Francona seems to have made it a crusade to keep his relievers rested, so they will be strong all year. And because the offense has provided some blowouts, he can afford to be judicious in using Joe Smith, Vinnie Pestano, and Chris Perez.

This isn’t to say the Indians will cruise into the post-season for the first time since 2007, but don’t confuse this team with those of the past two years. There’s much more talent in 2013.

On the Tribe’s Two-Faced Lineup

The front office of the Cleveland Indians took a calculated risk before the season, stocking the lineup full of left-handed hitters.

The rationale was that there are more right-handed pitchers than southpaws, and Progressive Field favors hitters who swing from the left side.

They may be right. After all, the Indians have the second most home runs hit by left-handed hitters in 2012, trailing only the Yankees.

The problem is the lineup has no balance, because the Tribe doesn’t have enough good hitters, something predicted here before the season.

A look at a normal Cleveland lineup shows the top four hitters in the batting order have batting averages between .272 (Jason Kipnis) and .295 (Asdrubal Cabrera).

That’s the good news.

The bad news is the balance of the lineup have averages between .221 (Carlos Santana and Casey Kotchman) and .201 (Johnny Damon).

Only the third base platoon of Jack Hannahan and Jose Lopez are in the middle, hitting .250 and .257 respectively.

The extreme split in the lineup was never more on display than it was Monday night against the Angels.

After Kipnis walked, Michael Brantley singled and Santana walked to load the bases, the bottom of the order came up to face LA ace Jared Weaver.

Damon grounded out weakly to third, forcing Kipnis at the plate. Kotchman popped out to the catcher, and Shelley Duncan struck out.

No runs scored in a situation where you have to get at least one, and should get two tallies.

When the bottom of the order hits, the Tribe can score some runs, as they did over the weekend in Baltimore. However, as anyone can see from the batting averages, that doesn’t occur very often.

The front office and the optimistic fans will gleefully point out every time guys like Kotchman or Duncan get two or three hits and drive in some runs.

If this deal were offered, who do you think would wind up on top?

Those fans would get $5 when the player of their choice has a good game, but give up the same amount when they take the collar, or go 1 for 5.

The point is those hitters at the bottom of the order don’t produce frequently enough to continue to play, and the Indians’ front office doesn’t seem to be in a big hurry to replace them.

The season is reaching the half way point on the 4th of July, and changes need to be made in the lineup.

Really, if the Indians replaced Damon, Kotchman, Duncan, and Aaron Cunningham with minor leaguers would they get less production?

In fact, three of them (Duncan excluded) have negative VORP (value over replacement player) meaning they are producing less than the average player at their position.

In a close race, there is no time for wishing and hoping that these players will start hitting at a high level, so GM Chris Antonetti needs to bring someone else in, either through a trade or by dipping into the minor leagues.

Before you laugh at the last comment, check out Matt LaPorta’s numbers in the major leagues in 2011 with Kotchman’s numbers. Don’t say there isn’t someone in Columbus that could help.

Travis Hafner will return to the team today and that should help, but how much? Hafner’s stats, especially his power numbers, have been in steady decline over the last few years.

He’s no longer a middle of the order threat, but he will add a hitter that can draw a walk and has occasional pop.

Something has to be done, because the circumstances that occurred Monday are becoming more and more frequent.

Passive Tribe Need to Make Moves

The Cleveland Indians are a conservative organization when it comes to making roster moves during the regular season. It is difficult to tell whether that is the philosophy of GM Chris Antonetti or manager Manny Acta.

Some clubs, like the Red Sox, are always tinkering with the last four or five spots on the roster, trying to squeeze out wins anyway they can. However, the Tribe prefers the patient approach.

The season has reached the middle of June and there are now less than 100 games remaining in the season. And we go with this theory when it comes to players: The “Can’t be Any Worse Theory”.

That being said, here are several moves the Tribe could make right now that do not involve trades (because you need a partner to do something like that).

1. DFA Aaron Cunningham, purchase the contract of OF Trevor Crowe.
Cunningham is hitting .185 with a 479 OPS. Acta has to find it difficult to give the outfielder any playing time outside of a defensive replacement for either Johnny Damon or Shelley Duncan. Crowe hasn’t shown anything but being a marginal major leaguer in his time in Cleveland, but he has a .245 lifetime average in 653 at bats. He’s been hurt, but is hitting .307 (849 OPS) in Columbus this year.

He can take Cunningham’s place as defensive replacement and back up CF easily, and provide at least some offense.

2. Option Josh Tomlin to AAA, recall Zack McAllister.
We’ve always liked Tomlin and advocated for his call up in 2010, but that season and most of 2011, he was a solid starting pitcher, going at least six innings in most of his starts, and allowing less than a hit per inning.

This year is a different matter. He’s given up 68 hits in 56-2/3 frames, and his consistency is no longer there. He’s had four solid starts in which is ERA is an excellent 2.54. In the rest of his appearances, he has an 8.58 ERA.

Tomlin has marginal stuff and has to be pinpoint in accuracy to get out big league hitters. Let him rediscover his control at Columbus.

Meanwhile, McAllister did a solid job in four starts in Cleveland and has a 2.98 ERA at AAA with 47 strikeouts vs. 18 walks. If he can keep the Tribe in the game most nights, then he should be up here.

DFA Shelley Duncan, call up Jason Donald or Russ Canzler
Again, this is another tough decision. The front office likes what Duncan brings to the clubhouse and we have always supported Dunc because he’s had a track record of hitting lefties.

However, he’s lost the plate discipline he had early in the year (13 walks in 19 April games, 5 walks the rest of the season), and he’s hitting just .222 vs. southpaws.

Donald’s defensive issues aside, he’s hitting .283 at Columbus (.383 OBP) and hit .318 in 39 games with the Tribe last season.

Canzler deserves an extended shot in the bigs after a 931 OPS last year in AAA. He’s hitting just .263 this season with the Clippers, but sometimes guys just get too comfortable (read: bored) at AAA after success there.

There are other moves the Tribe could make as well. Tony Sipp should be sent out, but the Indians just sent LHP Scott Barnes back to the minors, and they don’t have another lefty ready at Columbus.

And anytime the Johnny Damon experiment is ready to be ended would be alright too. It’s tough for Acta to have to put out lineups on a nightly basis where his LF and 1B are out makers.

As we wrote, the Indians are very judicious in making roster moves, so don’t look for anything soon.

The AL Central race looks to be one that goes to the wire, so you can’t give away any games. If you can make your roster stronger with even small moves, the Indians need to do just that.