Tribe Need Quality Innings Out Of Guys Who Start

It was another week involving injuries for the Cleveland Indians. After the shocking news at the beginning of the week that Shane Bieber had a shoulder strain, the Tribe also lost Austin Hedges to a concussion on Thursday and in Friday’s 11-10 loss to the Pirates, they lost Jose Ramirez with a bruised foot after being hit by a pitch.

That necessitated veteran Ryan Lavarnway being called up to help out behind the plate, and yesterday, Bobby Bradley, who doesn’t have 100 big league at bats yet, was forced to hit third.

Amazingly, the Indians cobbled together a sweep against Baltimore despite not having any starting pitcher throw more frames than the five pitched by Aaron Civale in game three of the series.

In fact, the last Cleveland starter to go more than five was Bieber last Sunday and he only went 5-2/3. The last Tribe hurler to see the seventh inning was Civale, who pitched eight, one hit innings against the Mariners a week ago Friday.

It’s difficult to imagine that working over a decent period of time without taking a toll on the entire pitching staff.

It was encouraging to see both JC Mejia and Cal Quantrill both go five innings against Pittsburgh in the last two games, so maybe they are finally stretched out enough to get into and perhaps complete six innings in their next start.

The relief corps has taken a heavy toll this past week and yesterday’s game might have been the first sign of pitchers showing wear and tear on their arms.

Bryan Shaw’s comeback story has been remarkable, but he has walked 24 hitters in 28 innings this season, although the damage has been limited because he only gave up 15 hits. However, his last three appearances have been dreadful, pitching two innings, allowing five hits and five walks.

Overall in June, the veteran righty has pitched 7-1/3 innings, giving up nine hits and eight walks for a 9.82 ERA. You have to think Terry Francona will look elsewhere the next time the seventh inning of a close game arises.

James Karinchak also has shown signs of a little wear. Remember, he pitched only 27 innings a year ago, and has already topped that this season. He pitched three days in a row last week in the Baltimore series.

In April, Karinchak was beyond dominant, allowing just two hits and striking out 22 of the 34 batters he faced. In May, he fanned 21 of the 45 batters that came to the plate and allowed only six hits, although three of them were homers.

To date in June, he has whiffed just 12 of the 27 batters who dug in against him, and allowed another home run yesterday. Just something to keep an eye on.

We are sure Francona and the Tribe front office look at the Tampa Bay model in handling the pitching staff without real starters. However the Rays have four pitchers with over 25 appearances, five with over 20, but only one (Ryan Thompson) with over 30 games pitched.

Cleveland has six pitchers with more than 20 appearances, but three of them, Shaw, Karinchak, and Emmanuel Clase, have appeared in more than 30 games.

This might be a subtle difference, but it is something to keep an eye on, and shows again, the need for starters to provide more length. It is very tough for a bullpen to keep this kind of burden over a long season.

The Indians are a team built on starting pitching. To us, as soon as Logan Allen and Triston McKenzie showed they weren’t ready, the organization should have started grooming Quantrill for one of those spots.

After all, he was set to be a starter in spring training. They are doing it now, but they may have lost a couple of weeks of development.

Hopefully, by the All Star break, Plesac and Bieber will be close to returning if not ready. That could provide a boost to a rotation currently running on fumes.

Tribe Needs Starting Pitching…And Quickly

The news came like a gut punch to Tribe fans all over the nation. Shane Bieber was placed on the IL with the shoulder strain.

The Indians are currently sitting with a 34-28 record and are in second place in the American League Central Division, 5-1/2 games behind the White Sox. They are also just 1-1/2 games behind Houston (although tied in the loss column) for the second wild card spot.

That seems good, doesn’t it.

Until you think about the state of the starting pitching for the Tribe, at least currently. Right now, the rotation consists of Aaron Civale, one of the better starting pitchers in the majors right now. It also included Shane Bieber, but he won’t pick up a baseball for at least two weeks.

Civale currently leads the AL in wins with nine, tied for the Major League lead with the Dodgers’ Julio Urias.

Hopefully, Zach Plesac will return sooner than later, perhaps after the All Star break, and he will give Terry Francona a third starter who should be able to give him at least six solid innings.

As for the rest of the pitchers who have started games recently, the numbers aren’t exactly pretty. The once plentiful supply of good arms in the farm system has appeared to have dried up.

Remember what Francona has always said, when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more.

Triston McKenzie has made 10 starts, totally 38-2/3 innings. He has a 6.75 ERA in those frame. The good news? He has struck out 54 hitters. The bad news? He has walked 35.

By the way, that comes to less than 4 innings per start, which is not good.

Left-hander Sam Hentges has made four starts, with a 8.56 ERA in 13-2/3 innings. That’s an average of 3-1/3 frames per start.

Another youngster (McKenzie is just 23, Hentges just 24), 24-year-old JC Mejia, has made three starts. His first was pretty good, going three scoreless innings at Baltimore as the Indians were getting him stretched out. In his second, he didn’t make it out of the first inning in St. Louis, giving up four runs. Last night, he went four innings.

Cal Quantrill has a similar experience. His first start was pretty good, going 3-2/3 and allowing just one run vs. the White Sox, but in his second start, he lasted just an inning and a third, allowing seven runs, five of them earned.

If we include Logan Allen’s five starts at the beginning of the year, which totaled 15-2/3 innings, an average of just over three innings per start, the starting pitchers not named Bieber, Civale, and Plesac are creating a big burden on the bullpen.

Added up, that comes to 24 starts made by other pitchers than the top three in the rotation, and the average number of innings pitched in those starts is 3-1/3.

And we are not counting the opener start made by Phil Maton or the start made by Eli Morgan, which by the way would lower that average, since he worked just 2-2/3 innings.

We understand that average is skewed somewhat by trying to get Quantrill and Mejia stretched out so they can give the team at least five innings. So, their starts this week against the Orioles are huge in figuring out what will happen over the next two weeks.

With Bieber now out, it’s clear the organization needs to do something about the starting pitching if they want to remain in contention for a playoff spot.

There are teams that have fallen out of the post-season race, like the Rangers, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Orioles. However, the reason a few of them have dropped out is because their starting pitching stinks.

Still, you might be able to pry lefty Tyler Anderson (3-6, 4.52 ERA) or right-hander JT Brubaker (4-5, 3.90 ERA) out of Pittsburgh, or might Texas give up Kyle Gibson (4-0, 2.13 ERA, but making almost $18 million over the next two years) for the right price.

Remember, the Indians farm system is deep at the lower levels, particularly in the middle infield, so there could be a fit.

We know the Cleveland organization is known for their patience, but if they are too patient, they could start to see the lack of starting pitching take its toll. Considering how hard they have fought to be in the race, that would be a shame.

Key Injuries For Tribe, And Can They Survive Them?

The Cleveland Indians avoided the injury bug for the first quarter of the Major League Baseball season, but it has come back to bite them in the past few days.

Two key members of the Tribe, continuing to battle in the American League Central at 26-21, just a game and a half behind the front-running Chicago White Sox, will be among the missing for probably 4-6 weeks, if not more.

Saturday, Franmil Reyes, the second best offensive threat Terry Francona has had at his disposal this season, strained an oblique and was placed on the injured list. Reyes leads the team in RBIs with 29 and is second in home runs with 11, one behind Jose Ramirez.

The next day saw another key injury as Zach Plesac fractured his thumb (off the field injury) and was also forced on the IL. Plesac was one of the three starters (Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale, the others) the skipper can count on right now, so the starting pitching is very, very thin right now, especially when it comes to experience.

Losing the second best hitter on a below average offense will make it even more difficult for Francona to cobble together lineups that can score runs. Owen Miller came up to replace Reyes on the roster, but really, the Tribe needs Eddie Rosario, currently hitting .228 with just 3 home runs to start hitting the way he did against the Indians when he was with the Twins.

It would also help if Josh Naylor stepped up more, and Cleveland could get more offense out of the first base position. Jake Bauers has been better lately, but a .303 slugging percentage says he’s not providing much pop.

As for Miller, he’s off to a slow start, but since the Tribe brought him up, they have to play him everyday to see what he can contribute.

Reyes’ absence also means opposing teams will have even more incentive to avoid Ramirez in late inning situations, where he has been lethal. We would let E. Rosario, Jordan Luplow or virtually anyone else to beat my team late in a contest rather than Jose Ramirez.

The loss of Plesac can be devastating. Cleveland brought up Triston McKenzie, just sent to AAA to work on control issues, to pitch last night, and right now, the only start not going to Bieber and Civale that is etched in stone is Sam Hentges going on Saturday.

The problem is exacerbated by Monday’s doubleheader (albeit seven inning games, meh) against the White Sox

The obvious thing to do (at least to us) was to start stretching out Cal Quantrill, which the club announced yesterday. With the resurgence of veteran Bryan Shaw and the emergence of rookie Nick Sandlin in the bullpen, and the fact that Francona prefers to use certain relievers when he has a lead, Quantrill has a very limited role in the ‘pen, pitching in very low leverage situations.

And remember, going into spring training, Quantrill was being groomed as a starter. He dropped out of contention for the rotation because of command issues and Logan Allen pitching lights out in Arizona.

It seems to us, right now Quantrill is more valuable to the Indians as a starting pitcher, keeping the team in games early.

We would also give a start to another rookie Jean Carlos Mejia. Mejia started the year in the rotation at Columbus, making two starts, and has pitched in two games in the bigs, allowing just one hit and fanning six in 3-1/3 innings.

Who knows, maybe the organization finds out they regained some rotation depth in Quantrill and Mejia.

This is where Francona’s one game at a time pays dividends for his team. He won’t bemoan the injuries and who isn’t there, he will just ask his team to win the game they are playing that night.

Really, that’s the best approach to take right now.

Nothing New: If Tribe Can Score, They Can Contend

So far in this 2021 Major League Baseball season, it’s quite simple: If the Cleveland Indians score four runs in a game, they win.

When the Indians get to that figure, they are 17-1 on the season. When they don’t, they are 1-13. The only game they lost when reaching the four run figure was the second Carlos Rodon/Zach Plesac matchup in Cleveland, when the White Sox beat the Tribe 8-5.

The only game they won scoring less than four? The epic Shane Bieber/Lucas Giolito game that went to 10 innings and resulted in a 2-0 Cleveland win.

Recently, the Indians’ offense has been a little better, Friday night’s no-hitter not withstanding. In their current stretch where they’ve one 10 out of 13, the Tribe has scored an average of 4.8 runs per game, getting at least four in all of the wins.

Overall on the season, the league average is 4.41 runs, and the Tribe is sitting at 4.25, so they are still below average.

So, it’s simple right? If the Indians can have close to a league average offense, they can be a contender in the AL Central. The two favorites coming into the season, the White Sox and Twins have problems. Chicago has lost two key offensive pieces in Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert, and the Twins have injury and bullpen issues to date.

Now, the question is, can the Tribe put together a league average offense?

Right now, the Cleveland attack is very top heavy. They have two real good offensive players, with OPS’ over 800 in Franmil Reyes (914) and Jose Ramirez (891). They have only two other players with an OPS over 700–Jordan Luplow at 789, and his batting average is just .171, and Josh Naylor at 724.

To date, the league average OPS is 704, so Cleveland has just four hitters who are better than the American League average.

That’s not good, nor does it bode well for the future.

We believe Eddie Rosario and Cesar Hernandez’ track records indicate they will hit, and while Rosario has had several years where he has been above the 800 OPS mark, Hernandez is more of a 750 OPS batter, meaning he’s above average, but not on the elite level.

The key continues to be Josh Naylor. If Naylor can hit like he has so far in May (.300 with two home runs and a 930 OPS in a small sample size), the Tribe’s offense just may be good enough. Notice that his surge has tied in with the offense being better.

First base is still a disaster area with Jake Bauers and Yu Chang combining to go 18 for 104 with just a single home run. Please note we are again talking about 32 games, not 10 anymore.

And the defense, particularly in the outfield, has been poor. Harold Ramirez has provided a bit of a spark with the bat (five hits this week, including three doubles), but he’s not a centerfielder. We know Naylor isn’t going to win a gold glove in right, and Rosario is average in left.

Terry Francona has tried to play Amed Rosario at shortstop against lefties, but it seems like he makes one misplay in each game he is out there.

And Roberto Perez’ finger injury means we will see a lot of Austin Hedges behind the plate, and let’s be kind and say he is offensively challenged. We know the Indians go defense first behind the plate, and we understand that, but right now, that position provides a slight upgrade over a pitcher offensively.

We have already seen opposing teams start to pitch around Ramirez and take their chances with Rosario and Reyes, and so far, they’ve come through. But given a choice, it wouldn’t be shocking to see more teams simply not give Ramirez anything to hit in late innings.

Nothing really has changed for the Tribe. If they can score, they can contend. Their ability to push runs across remains the key to the 2021 season.

Previewing the ’21 Tribe

This week is the week baseball fans have been looking forward to all winter. Opening Day of the 2021 season starts on Thursday, April 1st.

The Cleveland Indians have made the post-season in five of the last six seasons, and in 2019, when they didn’t, they still won 93 games.

Can they do it again in 2021?

Why they can make the playoffs. Zach Plesac joins Shane Bieber as a second ace of the starting rotation and the rest of the young pitchers keep the Indians in every game, much like last season. Logan Allen’s strong spring training translates into a solid regular season.

The back end of the bullpen, led by James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase, and Nick Wittgren, make Terry Francona’s team unbeatable if they have a lead after six innings.

Offensively, Jose Ramirez has another incredible season at the plate, comparable to the recent seasons where he finished in the top three of the MVP voting. Josh Naylor fulfills the expectations everyone seems to have for him and becomes a guy who can put up an 800 OPS.

Andres Gimenez does a solid job at the plate, and shows why he was the correct choice to take over at shortstop because of his glove.

Eddie Rosario hits like he always has at Progressive Field, putting up 30 HR and knocking in 100 runs, and Franmil Reyes shows more consistency than ever, belting 35-40 homers.

Why they won’t make the playoffs. The inexperienced young starters don’t hold up over the entire 162 game schedule. Aaron Civale continues the struggles he had in the latter half of the 2020 campaign, and Triston McKenzie can only give the big club about 50 innings.

The offense simply can’t score enough runs to win games, and Jose Ramirez gets pitched around in any situation where the opposing team can avoid him.

The pitching isn’t help by poor outfield defense. Naylor shows he’s the best option at first base, as the other candidates for the position, first Jake Bauers, then Bobby Bradley struggle to contribute at the plate.

Reyes continues to be streaky at the plate, with periods where he is red hot, followed by several periods of 0 for 20 and 2 for 44 mixed in.

The bullpen is spotty, Karinchak struggles with his control enough that Terry Francona can’t trust him in tight games, which because of the hitting, the Indians are involved in a lot of.

And Gimenez struggles enough at the plate that Amed Rosario moves back there vs. lefties, making the defense struggle at another spot.

The Indians won’t be a bad team this season, in fact, we don’t think they will be below the .500 mark. However, an awful lot of things will need to go right for them to make the playoffs. The inexperienced rotation (remember, no one besides Bieber has pitched more than 250 innings in the big leagues) has to be very, very good.

That means two other members in the starting rotation (Plesac, Civale, or based on spring training, Logan Allen) have to be of all star caliber. And the bullpen has to be excellent as well, with Karinchak and Clase overpowering hitters.

We believe you need seven solid bats to have a good lineup, and right now, the Tribe has Ramirez, Eddie Rosario, Cesar Hernandez, and Franmil Reyes. We think Naylor can be another, but can two others step up?

It will be an interesting season for sure, as we watch Gimenez and Naylor develop, and also look at the progress of the players at the AAA and AA levels, once minor league action starts.

We figure somewhere in the neighborhood of 83-85 wins. They will be a competitive team, but won’t have enough to make the post-season in 2021

Tribe Pitching: Talented, But Lack Experience.

Last week, we took a look at the questions regarding the everyday players for the Cleveland Indians, a group that ranked 13th in the AL in runs scored and has substracted Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana.

This week, we look at the team’s strength, the pitching staff, which led the league in ERA in the shortened 2020 season, led by Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber. Still, there are questions for the Indians on the pitching mound.

Really, when you think about it, why shouldn’t there be? In the past two seasons, the front office has traded Cy Young Award winners Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer, as well as Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger. That the Tribe still has a solid staff speaks to the way the organization develops pitching.

Outside of Bieber, the most innings thrown in the big leagues by the candidates to join him in the rotation are the 217 thrown by Adam Plutko, who if he makes the team out of spring training will likely be either the fifth starter or working out of the bullpen.

The other spots behind Bieber figure to be Zach Plesac (171 big league innings), Aaron Civale (131), Triston McKenzie (31), and Cal Quantrill (135). That’s a lot of inexperience. None of that quartet have pitched the number of innings a regular rotation starter throws in a normal 162 game schedule.

While we like Plesac a lot, and McKenzie and Quantrill have electric stuff, we do have concerns about Civale, who faded last season after a complete game win over Pittsburgh. In his last 40 innings in 2020, he gave up 28 earned runs, a 6.30 ERA.

They do have some depth in this area, but it is young, unproven depth. Left-hander Logan Allen, who came over in the Bauer deal in ’19, has had a couple of cups of coffee in the bigs, but has thrown just 38 innings with a 5.40 ERA. He will be 24 in May.

Another lefty who came in that deal, 26-year-old Scott Moss, has yet to make his debut, and has only four AAA starts, but did have a 2.96 ERA for three teams in 2019. And yet another southpaw is Sam Hentges, who suffered through a 2-13, 5.11 ERA at Akron in 2019, but is well regarded by the organization.

You also have righty Eli Morgan, 24, who had a 3.39 ERA across three levels in 2019, making one AAA start.

Our bet is Plutko opens the season as the fifth starter, with McKenzie. Moss, and Allen getting some starts in Columbus to open the year. Plutko is out of options, so this delays the decision the organization has to make on him.

In the bullpen, closer Brad Hand left via free agency, so it appears James Karinchak will assume that role in 2021. The rookie fanned 53 in 27 innings in 2020, and even earned his first big league save. He did walk 16, but when he can throw strikes, he is basically unhittable.

A PED suspension in spring training did not allow us to see the other young Tribe arm with electric stuff out of the bullpen in Emmanuel Clase. The right-hander had a 2.31 ERA with Texas in 2019, and reportedly throws a 100 MPH cutter. Frankie Lindor said he was nasty when the Indians faced the Rangers in ’19.

The rest of the bullpen will include veteran reliable Nick Wittgren, Cam Hill, Phil Maton, and perhaps some of the guys who don’t make the rotation.

Wittgren has pitched to a 2.99 ERA in two years with 88 strikeouts in 81 innings with the Indians. Hill was solid as a rookie in ’20, although he ended the year with a couple of rocky outings, and Maton became Sandy Alomar’s go to guy late in the season, and probably got overused.

There is also Kyle Nelson, a rookie lefty who made just one bad appearance a year ago, but has fanned 176 hitters in 122 minor league innings.

We would like to see the organization bring in one more veteran arm (we always like Tijuan Walker), to take some pressure off of the youngsters.

We know that won’t happen because of the financial limitations the ownership has put on the front office.

The rotation could be among the league’s best, but there are a lot of questions in terms of experience. That’s a big worry for us in evaluating the 2021 Cleveland Indians.

No Surprise, Tribe Ain’t Spending The Cash They Saved

Imagine being a regular customer at a department store, say Macy’s, and you go into the store and find they are no longer offering clothing from Calvin Klein, Ralph Lauren, or Nike.

Think about going to a high class restaurant like Morton’s and finding out the best thing on the menu is now hamburger.

You’d be a little disappointed, correct? That’s how is was for supporters of the Cleveland Indians on Sunday morning reading the team is interested in free agents like Kevin Pillar and Jonathon Schoop.

Talk about generating excitement? Well, this falls about a mile short.

While these guys aren’t bad players, Pillar had a career best OPS in the shortened 2020 season, and Schoop has had solid seasons, but outside of 2019 with the Twins, hasn’t really been a regular on a good team in recent years.

Still, it’s a step down from having a roster that included Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, and Mike Clevinger. Ramirez is still here and the team still has the current Cy Young Award winner in Shane Bieber, but most of the balance of the roster hasn’t proven much at the major league level.

Once again, we aren’t saying the Indians should have a $170 million payroll, although we do not believe for a minute that any major league baseball owner is suffering financially. On the other hand, we don’t get gutting the payroll to around $40 million, which would be one of the lowest figures in the sports.

Cleveland isn’t the Pittsburgh Pirates. After winning 98 games in 2015 and losing the Wild Card game, the Bucs win total has dropped since then, to 78, 75, 82, and then 69 in 2019. They finished with just 19 wins in 2020.

At that point, a total rebuild is understandable, and probably necessary. The Indians win totals over that same time period are 81 in 2015, to 94, 102, 91, 93, and then a 35-25 record last season. Wouldn’t you want to see how long you can keep the success going?

If fans are allowed into Progressive Field at some point in 2021, our guess is it won’t be long until we hear about attendance issues, and how people aren’t flocking to the ballpark.

This complaint is developing into a game of chicken with the ticket buyers, and it’s one the Dolan ownership will never win. They are insulting the customers, and tell us in what business does that work?

Yes, the number of fans going through the turnstiles has dropped since 2017 (FYI, the Indians don’t tell you they had the second largest increase in attendance from ’16 to ’17), but it hasn’t dropped like a proverbial rock.

The largest drops from ’17 to ’18 was in Toronto, followed by Miami, Kansas City, Detroit, and Baltimore. From ’18 to ’19, the most significant decreases were in Toronto, Seattle, San Francisco, Detroit, and Washington, who by the way, won the World Series that season.

The Tribe’s 2019 attendance (1.74 million people) ranks fourth since 2010 (behind 2011, 2017, and 2018). So, it’s not as bad as the ownership would like you to believe.

What happened in 2009 to cause attendance to fall off then? It was the last salary dump by the organization, trading Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez. Funny how that works.

Since the end of the 2018 season, the Indians have traded Kluber, Yan Gomes, Bauer, Clevinger, Lindor, and Carrasco, and let Michael Brantley and Santana walk away as free agents.

Eventually, that’s going to have an effect in the standings and among the fan base.

It’s a heck of a gamble by the ownership that their front office will be able to cobble together a contending team with that sort of talent drain.

They are also underestimating the intelligence of their fan base.

Biggest Factor For Tribe? Games Aren’t In The Bronx

Tomorrow night, the Indians start the new “Wild Card” round of the American League playoffs, necessitated this year (we hope only this year) by the shortened regular season.

Because of the regional schedule for the year, Tribe fans haven’t seen the Yankees this season, and vice versa. This we do know, New York had a 33-27 record this season, going 22-9 at Yankee Stadium and 11-18 on the road.

By the way, all three games of the series will be played in Cleveland at Progressive Field.

Because the Yankees get on national television more than most teams, certainly more than the Indians, baseball fans know the names: Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, D.J. LeMahieu, and Gary Sanchez.

And they signed Garrit Cole, who won 20 games with the Astros last season, helping to pitch them to the AL pennant.

Their closer is Aroldis Chapman, who Tribe fans remember very well from the 2016 World Series.

However, in looking at the statistics for the Yankees this season, it has a Jekyll and Hyde feel to them.

You see, in the Bronx, the pinstripers have a team batting average of .273 with 67 home runs as a team, and a 907 OPS.

As a comparison, the Indians team statistics for the entire season has them with a .228 batting average, 59 home runs, and an OPS of 689. That’s for both home and road games.

LeMahieu, the AL batting champion, batted .448 at Yankee Stadium with eight home runs. Luke Voit, who led the Junior Circuit in long balls, swatted 16 at home. Four other Yanks hit six dingers in the Bronx, meanwhile the Tribe had four players who hit more that a half dozen for the entire season.

However, away from the famous short porch in right field, New York has at least according to the numbers been a far different team.

On the road, the Bronx Bombers have a .220 batting average with only 27 home runs, and a 668 OPS. They hit like Cleveland did all season long away from the House That Derek Jeter Built.

LeMahieu, who is a great hitter (we wanted the Indians to sign him when he was a free agent), batted .283 on the road, but had just two dingers. Voit, who had 22 homers for the season, hit just six away from the Bronx.

Stanton (14 for 49, 3 HR) and old friend Gio Urshela (21 for 65, 12 RBI) were the most productive New York bats away from home this season.

What is odd is the Yankee pitching splits at home and on the road. NY pitchers had a 3.87 ERA in the Big Apple, with Cole having a 2.09 mark, winning four games. Masahiro Tanaka, the game two starter won three at home, but with a 4.40 ERA.

The weird stat is they had a 4.88 ERA on the road. We understand their road games were at hitter friendly parks like Fenway Park, Oriole Park at Camden Yards, and Sahlens Field in Buffalo, where the Blue Jays played their home games, and it was very much a pitcher’s nightmare.

Tanaka pitched well on the road (2.33 ERA) which isn’t good news for Wednesday night’s contest.

As for the Tribe, they hit .233 at home (compared to .222 on the road), but hit 34 of their 59 home runs on the road.

Jose Ramirez (who else?) was the best hitter at Progressive Field, hitting .317 with 19 extra base hits. Cesar Hernandez hit .313 at his new home park, and Carlos Santana belted five of his eight homers in Cleveland.

The Indians’ pitchers had a 3.67 ERA at home vs. 2.90 away from Progressive Field. It didn’t matter for game one starter Shane Bieber, the likely AL Cy Young Award winner, who had 1.23 ERA and struck out 44 hitters in 22 innings at home.

Game 2 starter Carlos Carrasco had a 3.03 ERA, and Game 3 hurler Zach Plesac is at 2.08 along the shores of Lake Erie.

What does all of this mean? Not much, because it’s baseball, and a three game series doesn’t really determine a lot. However, ignore the names wearing the New York uniforms. They are television personalities because the networks want the Yankees.

The numbers show the Indians can compete and win the series if (and that’s a huge if) their beleaguered offense can cobble up some runs. That’s the biggest question of the week for the Tribe.

This Week Is About Tribe Getting Ready For Next Week

Within the next couple of days, maybe even today, the Cleveland Indians will clinch a spot in the expanded eight team American League playoff field.

So, Terry Francona, Sandy Alomar Jr., and Carl Willis are tasked with getting the Tribe ready for the wild card series, which begin either Monday, October 5th or Tuesday, October 6th.

The team changed its starters for the series against the White Sox, with Shane Bieber being moved back to Wednesday’s game so he will be ready to go in game one of the first series. Cal Quantrill will get the start in what is essentially a bullpen game.

Apparently, the brass already made the change with the batting order, and hoping the new configuration, with Francisco Lindor leading off, and Jose Ramirez moving to the #3 slot, will provide more runs.

It’s not the style of the Indians’ leadership to make another change at this late date unless there is an injury.

Who would start game two? If the Tribe is involved in a series that starts Monday, it would be difficult to see anyone but Zach Plesac getting the nod. If Cleveland starts on Tuesday, Carlos Carrasco could make his next start on Friday night, and still take the hill in the second game of the first round series.

These last seven games will also be a trial for the bullpen, as Willis and his crew try to firm up the pecking order. We know Brad Hand is the closer, and James Karinchak will be the guy the Tribe uses in the 8th or in the “Andrew Miller” role, the highest leverage situations.

But who would pitch the 7th inning if a reliever is needed in a close contest? We would bet the staff will take a long look at newcomer Quantrill, particularly because he could go more than one inning if needed. He and Nick Wittgren would seem to be the arms that take care of the 6th and 7th innings.

Where does that leave veteran Oliver Perez? He would come on for a tough lefty bat, or maybe for a full inning if two left-handed hitters are scheduled. We believe the coaching staff has high confidence in the southpaw.

And Phil Maton could be used in a similar role vs. right-handed bats.

With the Wild Card Series being a best of three series, it means there is seemingly no role for Aaron Civale and/or Tristan McKenzie. We don’t know how Civale’s stuff plays out of the bullpen, unless it is in a long relief role, but we could see a rested McKenzie coming in for an inning or two if the starter can’t get through five innings.

That would seem to mean Cam Hill and Plutko would be used in mop up roles.

We also believe Delino DeShields will be the primary centerfielder in the playoffs. We wish Oscar Mercado would have received the bulk of the playing time after he was recalled, but he hasn’t, and he hasn’t exactly torn the cover off the ball when he has played (5 for 31).

Will Mercado platoon with Josh Naylor in LF or Tyler Naquin in RF though? We know Jordan Luplow will be in the lineup when a lefty opposes the Tribe, but does the skipper, whether it be Francona or Alomar, platoon in both corner outfield spots.

Another question is will the Indians carry 13 pitchers for the post-season? With no off days, it may be necessary, but if they decide to go with 12, who among the extra players at Lake County gets the call?

The Tribe hasn’t made a lot of moves during the shortened season, but would bringing up a left-handed bat off the bench make sense, particularly if whoever would get the call hasn’t faced big league pitching in awhile.

We understand a spot hasn’t been clinched as of yet, but the Mariners aren’t playing well, so it may be over as early as tonight.

But the Indians still have plenty to play for, including passing Minnesota to hop into the 4th or 5th seeding spot. We are anxious to see how the team approaches these last seven games.

Who’s Tribe’s #2? Might Just Be Plesac.

Prior to the Major League Baseball trade deadline, there seemed to be a clear pecking order to the Cleveland Indians’ starting rotation.

Shane Bieber, who is the favorite for the American League Cy Young Award in this COVID shortened season is the clear ace, and would start Game 1 of the first round of the playoffs if and when Cleveland qualifies, unless he was needed to start a game so the Tribe could qualify for the post-season.

Right now, by our calculations, the magic number is 15 to clinch a berth in the eight team field.

Before the megadeal with San Diego, it would have figured that Mike Clevinger would pitch game two.

After all, Clevinger was 26-12 over the past two full seasons, and a 2.90 ERA and 376 strikeouts in 326 innings. And in his lone playoff start, he pitched five innings in Game 3 vs. Houston in the 2018 Division Series, allowing just one run, striking out nine.

So, although we don’t want to put the cart ahead of the horse, who takes the ball in the second game, and perhaps most pivotal game of the first round best of three series, a game in which the Tribe could advance or have to win to force a deciding game.

A couple of weeks ago, Aaron Civale would have been the odds on favorite, but since his complete game win against Pittsburgh, he hasn’t pitched as well.

Prior to that start, Civale pitched 25 innings to a 3.60 ERA, allowing 25 hits. Four of the ten earned runs he allowed came in a game against the Tigers, where he gave up three runs early before settling down.

In his last three starts, he’s allowed 10 runs in 18 frames, a 5.00 ERA. His usual impeccable control has been reduced as well. Before the Pirates start, the right-handers had struck out 26 hitters, walking just three.

The last three starts have yielded 17 whiffs against six walks, and 20 hits allowed. There has been a lot of traffic on the basepaths.

Terry Francona could also pick veteran Carlos Carrasco, who has rebounded from a tough three start stretch by allowing just a single run in his last two starts, spanning 12 innings, with 13 strikeouts and five walks.

Carrasco has made two very good post-season starts, the first in game three of the ’17 Division Series vs. the Yankees (5-2/3 scoreless innings, seven whiffs), and the other in game two of the ’18 ALDS against Houston (5-1/3 innings, two runs) where he left the game with the lead.

However, the guy we would consider is Zach Plesac, who stuffwise might rank right behind Bieber. The second year right-hander, who missed time because of his ill advised night on the town in Chicago, has a 3-1 record and a 1.32 ERA.

He’s allowed just 23 hits in 34 innings, striking out 34 hitters, while walking just two. He’s faced the White Sox, one of the league’s best hitting attacks twice, pitching 14 scoreless innings, fanning 18 batters, while walking just one.

He is scheduled to start in Minneapolis this weekend, so we may have a clearer picture of what he can do after that start. If he can control the Twins bats, he could emerge as the game two starter once the post-season starts.

That’s amazing because when the season started, Plesac was the #5 guy in the rotation. But starting with his first start against the White Sox, an eight scoreless inning performance with 11 strikeouts, he’s shown a great improvement from his rookie year.

Obviously, there will be 3-4 starts remaining for the rotation depending on how Francona, Sandy Alomar Jr., and Carl Willis want to line it up for the playoffs. However, Plesac has thrown his hat into the ring for the second spot in the rotation.

Just another surprise in this crazy 2020 season.