Kudos For Signing Jose, But It Looks Like 3rd For Guards in ’22

After a pretty dreary winter for baseball fans in northeast Ohio, the sun peaked out a little yesterday.

First, today is the beginning of the baseball season, another sign that warmer weather will be here soon, and the Guardians will be home next week after six games, four in Kansas City and two in Cincinnati.

Second was the news baseball fans wanted to hear for a long time. Jose Ramirez, one of the best players in the game, signed a five year extension, keeping with the franchise through the 2028 season.

Ramirez could be the first great player to finish his career in a Cleveland uniform while spending every day of it in that uniform since the 1950’s.

We aren’t going to go overboard in praise of the current ownership because they simply did what any owner interested in winning would do. It’s a shame they couldn’t do it with Francisco Lindor a year ago so we could watch the duo of Ramirez and Lindor reach their prime in Cleveland.

It’s a great step in the right direction, but the Guardians’ payroll is still among the lowest in the sport, and the owners continue to put large profits in their pocket. So, forgive us for not sharing a virtual hug with Paul Dolan.

With the games starting to count today, what does the 2022 season hold in store for the newly minted Guardians? We would love to be more optimistic, but we see a third place finish for Terry Francona’s squad, behind Chicago and Minnesota in the AL Central.

Besides Ramirez, the Guardians have one other big thing going for them, and that’s an excellent starting rotation, providing everyone stays healthy. Last year, that did not happen.

Because of the injuries the rotation is probably deeper with the emergence of Cal Quantrill and Triston McKenzie in the second half of 2021. The five starters, including Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac, give the Guards a chance to win every night.

In today’s game, that’s a big thing.

However, beyond that, your guess is as good as ours.

The offense looks like it will struggle. Francona can really write in one great offensive player (Ramirez) and two decent ones (Myles Straw and Franmil Reyes) every day.

We are interested in seeing how Andres Gimenez does this year, but the organization seems hell bent on finding out for sure on players like Bradley Zimmer, Oscar Mercado, and Bobby Bradley.

We are pretty sure we know how that movie ends.

The quicker we see more of Josh Naylor and Steven Kwan among others, the better. And the hitting might get better too.

The bullpen is another area that is up in the air. Who will be the primary set up men for Emmanuel Clase? We are sure Bryan Shaw will start in the role, but who else? We like Nick Sandlin, but he was hurt at the end of the season, and has pitched in just 34 games in the majors.

Besides Anthony Gose, the relief corps right now is filled with pitchers who will be providing length rather than one inning stints.

We will see how that plays out.

Our guess is the Guardians will look a lot different in June and July than they will this afternoon, but did they have to? Last year, the team was very much in the race until Bieber, Plesac, and Civale went down.

If the rotation can avoid the injury bug, the Guardians could stay in the race, but more than likely the lack of offense will be the reason this will be another year outside of the post-season, even with an extra spot available.

Lots Of Young Players Need To Come Through For Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians have had a curious off-season to be sure. They finished the 2021 season below the .500 mark at 80-82 but didn’t really make any moves to improve the major league roster.

They signed two free agents, catcher Luke Maile, who figures to back up Austin Hedges when he gets healthy, and also inked Bryan Shaw, who was on the roster last season.

Cleveland was 41-31 on June 24th and just two games out of first place after a 4-1 victory at Target Field against the Twins. However, by that point in time they had lost three members of the starting rotation to injury: Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac.

To that point in the season, Cleveland had 21 wins from that trio. They received eight victories the rest of the year, six of them by Plesac, and none from Bieber.

There should be some optimism from that. All three appear to be healthy heading into the season, and with the emergence of Cal Quantrill and the maturation of Triston McKenzie, the Guardians could have one of the best rotations in the sport.

The bullpen has a dominant closer in Emmanuel Clase, but very little other proven arms, save for Shaw.

In the regular season though, you have score runs to win, and therein lies the biggest question mark to the 2022 season. Can this team score enough runs to make a post-season push?

Cleveland ranked 9th in the American League in runs last season and 13th in the league in getting on base. They have a lot of players on the roster who make an awful lot of outs, and they did nothing this winter to address that.

So, the likely lineup that will start the season will feature players like Bradley Zimmer (career OBP of .310), Oscar Mercado (.296), Austin Hedges (.249), Amed Rosario (.307), and Bobby Bradley (.287).

There were players on the open market who could get on base, and young players like Steven Kwan and Richie Palacios have demonstrated the same ability in the minor leagues, but the organization decided to stand pat. Kwan did make the season opening roster, but we will see how much playing time he gets.

And by the way, talking about how close you came to making moves is meaningless. It’s the same as telling folks how close you came to winning the lottery. In the end, you didn’t get anything.

So, it doesn’t appear the Guardians have done anything to solve the problem other than hoping these guys get on base more often. That’s the Dusty Springfield (look her up) method: “Wishin’ and Hopin'”.

Once opposing pitchers get past the #3 hitter Jose Ramirez, and the clean up man, Franmil Reyes, there could be a lot of smooth sailing. Putting together a rally will be a stretch, there is a lot of feast or famine from #5 through #9.

Maybe Andres Gimenez will improve if he’s back to his regular position of shortstop. Maybe Yu Chang hits like he did the last two months (although his 69:11, K:BB ratio says otherwise). Maybe Owen Miller hits like his minor league numbers.

These aren’t things an organization should be basing their success on.

The Guardians are banking on several young players coming through this season. That sounds like a rebuilding team, not one interested in contending for a playoff spot.

Baseball Is Back, Let’s Talk Some Guardians

Baseball is back, and the problems for individual franchises now shift from the meeting room to the playing field. The Cleveland Guardians are no exception.

The Guards have finished last season 13 games out of first place in the AL Central, and a dozen games out of the wild card spot. And the sixth best record in the league, and that will make the post-season this season, was Seattle and they won ten more contests than Terry Francona’s squad.

Cleveland finished ninth in the Junior Circuit in runs scored, and despite the strength of the organization being pitching, they were 10th in ERA, most due to a rash of injuries to the starting pitchers, mainly ace Shane Bieber, who made just 16 starts.

Still, with good health the rotation should be the backbone of the team. Cal Quantrill emerged to post a 2.89 ERA over 149-2/3 innings, and Triston McKenzie showed flashes, including a seven start stretch in the second half where he threw 46 innings and allowed just 9 runs, a 1.74 ERA.

And don’t forget that Aaron Civale was leading the league in wins when he went down with a finger injury, and although Zach Plesac, who also missed time, was spotty, he still allowed less hits than innings pitched.

Eli Morgan and Logan Allen will be available in Columbus to start the season if need by to provide depth.

The bullpen is another matter. Emmanuel Clase was tremendous and should have had more support for rookie of the year, posting a 1.29 ERA and 24 saves. Behind him are question marks.

James Karinchak struggled coming down the stretch and Nick Sandlin was injured at the end of last season. The hope is that Trevor Stephan and Anthony Gose can contribute, but if we know Francona, he will want some veteran experience in relief.

Offensively, this team needs a lot of help. There is really just one great offensive player, Jose Ramirez, and not much else.

If an excellent hitter is a guy with an on base percentage over .350 and a slugging percentage over .450, then Ramirez is it.

What’s worse is Myles Straw is the only other player with an OBP over .350 on the roster. And next best figure is Bradley Zimmer, who has huge holes in his swing, at .325 (he was hit by 15 pitches). Amed Rosario got on base at a .321 clip.

The number of players beside Ramirez who slugged better than .450 also numbers one–Franmil Reyes (.522). That leaves the Guardians one excellent bat, and two solid bats. That’s it. To be able to score enough runs, conventional wisdom says you need six good hitters.

That leaves the Guards about three short right now. So, the front office has some work to do before the regular season begins. The have to find some guys who can get on base and/or players who can accumulate some extra base hits.

And as of today, we would say there are only four positions written in stone: Ramirez at 3B, Straw in CF, Reyes at DH, and Austin Hedges behind the plate.

That’s an awful lot of uncertainty, particularly with a shortened spring training.

It is good to talk about the actual game and not labor issues. However, now we have to look at the holes on the Guardians’ roster. How quickly can these be resolved without some moves by president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff.

If the Guards want to get in the playoff chase, they need to score a lot more runs.

A Major Off-Season Starts For The Guardians

The 2021 Major League Baseball season ended last night and fans of Cleveland baseball were subject to seeing highlights from the 1995 World Series, because the Atlanta Braves won their first world championship since defeating the Indians in six games that season.

And the end of the season means any reference to the team henceforth will be as the Guardians, as Cleveland’s name change takes effect. In fact, the name “Indians” above the giant scoreboard in left field was starting to be removed on Tuesday.

Besides the name change, the front office has a lot of work to do before spring training opens (hopefully because of the negotiations for a new CBA) in February in Goodyear, Arizona.

The offense needs to be improved for sure. The Guardians have finished in the lower half of the league in each of the last two seasons in runs scored, and it has been noted, you have to score runs to get into the post-season. Four of the top five teams in scoring made the playoffs in the American League.

While it is always noted pitching wins in October, and that is true for the most part, but in the regular season, teams need to score. Cleveland finished 9th in runs in 2021, and they likely need to get into the top six if they want to play past game 162 in 2022.

The corner outfield spots need to be upgraded badly, as well as second base and first base. And the offense in general would be helped by getting more guys who avoided making outs. Guardian hitters had an on base percentage of just .303 in ’21, ranking 13th in the league.

They ranked 7th in home runs, but it would be nice if there were men on base when Jose Ramirez or Franmil Reyes launched one into the seats.

For the first time in awhile, the pitching was also below the league average, with Cleveland ranking 10th in the AL in ERA, dropping from 1st in the COVID shortened season of 2020.

Certainly the injuries to Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac had a lot to do with that. For a stretch in June and July, Terry Francona was using J.C. Mejia and Sam Hentges as rotation pieces.

However, the pitching for 2022 could actually already have been bolstered by what happened this past summer. Cal Quantrill emerged as a rotation piece, going 8-3 with a 2.89 ERA in 40 appearances, including 22 starts. As a starter, he went 8-2 with a 3.12 ERA.

He most certainly will start spring training as a starter.

The other excellent development was the growth of Triston McKenzie. The wiry right-handed finished the season 5-9 with a 4.95 ERA, but in a seven start span from August 5th to September 14th, he went 4-2 in 46 innings, with a 1.76 ERA and 48 punch outs. Included in that span was a near perfect game against the Tigers, where he didn’t allow a baserunner until two outs in the 8th.

On the other hand, this season should have told the brass you can never have enough pitching depth. Eli Morgan is still around, and they traded for Peyton Battenfield and Konnor Pilkington at the deadline, and second round pick (2020) Logan Allen had an excellent season. And of course, Mejia, Hentges and Logan Allen (the Reyes’ deal) are still around, depending if they stay on the 40 man roster.

Hentges might be viewed as more of a reliever.

The first big decision will be which minor leaguers need to be protected from the “Rule 5” draft, and that determines how many players currently on the 40 man roster will be protected.

It should be an interesting winter, besides the rebranding, for the Cleveland Guardians

Things To Watch For Tribe In September

In many ways it feels hard to believe that the Major League Baseball season has just one month left. It seems like yesterday that Shane Bieber allowed a home run to Miguel Cabrera in a snowstorm at Comerica Park in Detroit.

But here we are, and the Indians have just 33 games remaining. And that’s literal too, because once the campaign is over, the name goes away, and when spring training starts next February, the Cleveland baseball team will be the Guardians.

Even though the front office seems to be focused more on the 2022 season and finding out what players currently on the roster will be able to help next season, the Tribe is still just five games out in the lost column for the second wild card spot and we have always felt there is a chance if you enter September five games or less out of a playoff spot.

That’s a long shot, obviously.

What else is there to look for with the season winding down towards a conclusion?

One thing to watch is the return of Aaron Civale and Shane Bieber. If all went well for Civale last night, he should return to the rotation when the team returns home on Labor Day. By the way, we know pitchers’ wins doesn’t hold the cache it used to, but even though the right-hander has missed a little more than two months, he’s still 7th in the AL in wins with 10.

Bieber could start to make rehab appearances in minor league games next week, which could have him back on the mound in a major league game by the middle of the month.

We have said before it would be important for the organization and the pitchers’ themselves to know they are healthy heading into the off-season.

And we will be left imagining a rotation of Bieber, Civale, Cal Quantrill, Triston McKenzie, and Zach Plesac heading into the ’22 season.

A baseball axiom is not to trust anything done in April or September, but the outgoing position battles in the outfield and at second base bears watching.

At second, we will likely see a revolving door with Andres Gimenez, Owen Miller, and Yu Chang getting opportunities.

Chang has hit well over the last month (12 for 34, 5 HR), Miller has an excellent minor league pedigree as a hitter, and Gimenez, the only left-handed hitter of the trio, hasn’t hit well since being recalled, but has shown a much better eye at the plate.

Can one of them get a leg up on the starting job heading into Goodyear?

The same goes for the ongoing competition in the outfielder, really in the corners, because it appears Myles Straw has taken command in center.

Harold Ramirez has returned and he will be added to the mix along with Bradley Zimmer, Oscar Mercado, and Daniel Johnson.

Zimmer has had a great deal of success since the All Star break, hitting .272 with 6 homers (806 OPS) in that span. However, he’s also fanned 48 times in 142 plate appearances (33.8%), which is very high. He’s hit long, long home runs, true, but is that type of production sustainable.

Mercado has improved his walk rate, but has hit just .223 in the second half (625 OPS), and for the year hasn’t done well vs. RHP (.205 batting average). As a right-handed hitter, he isn’t as good as Ramirez, who has decent enough numbers against righties, although Mercado is a better defender.

As for Johnson, he’s gone 15 for 50 with four dingers in the second half of the season, even though he was sent to AAA during that stretch. It looks like the organization has decided he can’t hit lefties, because he’s pinch hit for whenever a southpaw is throwing.

Johnson has a terrible strikeout to walk ratio (23:3), but we would like to see him get some opportunities vs. lefties.

It would be interesting to see what would happen though, if the Tribe won five or six in a row and got within, say, three games out in the loss column? That would be fun to see.

Seeing Bieber, Civale On Mound In Games Is Important

We see the weekly reports. Aaron Civale threw off the mound, Shane Bieber threw pitches with a weighted ball. The top two pitchers in the Cleveland rotation continue to make slow, but steady progress overcoming their injuries.

The question to be asked though, is should the Indians’ front office just shutdown the two hurlers and let them start getting ready for spring training?

We think it is important that both get out on a big league mound and make at least a couple of starts before the regular season ends.

Obviously, it doesn’t make a difference in terms of the team’s record. The Tribe is currently under the .500 mark and is over 10 games out in the AL Central Division standings and currently sit nine games out in the wild card race.

And really, if you are under the break even mark, sentences involving the words “playoffs” and “chances” should not be allowed.

That said, why shouldn’t the front office simply let their two aces recover and start getting ready and being healthy for the 2022 season?

First, look in the dugout of most Indians’ games these days. There are Bieber and Civale watching, sitting with the other starters, as is kind of a tradition among the Cleveland starters. They watch bullpen sessions as a group, and share a comradery. And Bieber is most definitely the leader of the group, in his position as reigning Cy Young Award winner and staff ace.

Perhaps the two young veterans want to show the younger guys, like Triston McKenzie and Eli Morgan, that the season lasts 162 games, there are no shortcuts. You start in February and you play it out until September, and if you are lucky enough, throughout October.

That’s the responsibility of leadership.

Then there is the confidence that the two hurlers have recovered from their problems and can go into the off-season feeling good that in Civale’s case, his finger is good, and in Bieber’s case, his shoulder is strong enough to do their normal off-season workouts.

And to us, it isn’t just enough to make just one start before the campaign ends. Let both rebuild their arm strength enough so they can each make three or four turns through the rotation.

Now, we aren’t saying to be stupid, and allow either to throw 120 pitches during a contest that doesn’t have an impact as far as post-season possibilities go. We would be very careful with the pair’s workload. But getting both Bieber and Civale out on the mound would be good for both the organization and the two players.

And just one start isn’t enough either. Both need to know going into the winter that they can make their regular turn without concern. Again, we understand it is not like going through the meat of the schedule, but it would show both the finger and shoulder issues are no longer a hinderance.

Besides, what’s the upside of shutting both down for the season? It’s not like football or basketball where is it is extremely helpful to get a higher draft pick? Baseball’s amateur draft doesn’t carry the same weight in that regard.

And although the organization is taking a good look at a lot of young players, it isn’t like Cleveland is “tanking”.

It doesn’t mean much in terms of the standings and quite frankly, whether or not the Indians finish second or third in the AL Central is kind of inconsequential. But knowing Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale have healed and can be counted on for 2022 is important.

That’s why it would be good to see them out on the mound in September, at least for a couple of starts.

Starting Pitching Hasn’t Been The Issue For Tribe

The Cleveland Indians lost the top three members of their starting rotation, so many people might think their 6-9 record after the All Star Game is due to the loss of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac, who has since returned to the rotation.

It’s really not, though. Since the break, Tribe starters have allowed three runs or less nine times, and limited the opponents to four runs in 12 of the 15 contests.

So, the starters are doing their job in terms of keeping the Indians in the game each night.

Cal Quantrill has been the staff leader since the break, making four starts, allowing one run in each of them, totaling 23 innings. He is making a big claim to keep a spot in the rotation when everyone is healthy.

Plesac has built up his workload after coming back from his thumb fracture, and has made three starts, including the longest outing by a starter, 6-2/3 frames against Tampa on July 23rd. He’s pitched 17-2/3 innings in three starts, allowing eight runs.

Both Quantrill and Plesac are giving the team some length, which is easing the burden on an increasingly weary bullpen.

Eli Morgan has made three starts, and although he hasn’t been dominant, he kept Cleveland in games, allowing three runs or less in each and giving the manager at least five innings.

The down side for the rotation has been JC Mejia and Triston McKenzie. The latter had a great outing vs. the Rays (6 IP, 2 ER, 6 K’s), but in his other two outings, he allowed five and six runs in four inning stints. In his last start, Saturday night vs. the White Sox, the control issues that have plagued him all year raised up again, walking three in four frames.

In his previous three starts, McKenzie issued just one free pass.

Mejia continues to show he shouldn’t be starting big league games at this time. He’s made three post all star starts, allowing 13 runs in just under 15 innings. We don’t understand why, even if this experimental point in the season, management keeps running him out there.

It can’t be helping the kid’s confidence.

The problem continues to be the hitting. Outside of Saturday’s 12 run explosion in Chicago, the Tribe hitters have mustered more than four runs just three times. Dating back to June 19th, a span of 35 games, the Indians have scored five or more tallies just nine times, and three of those came in losses.

Keep in mind, the American League average for runs scored per game is 4.56, so five runs is just slightly above the norm. We aren’t asking for much.

It is amazing that even without the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and the guy who was leading the AL in wins when he was injured, the starting pitchers have held up their end of the bargain.

The Indians might be the only team in the majors who could lose three starting pitchers for a lengthy period of time and still not have that area be the weakness of the team.

Keep in mind, the front office added two more starters at the AA level at the trade deadline as well.

It’s pretty clear what needs to be done over the winter. We also might find some solutions with the young players who will get ample playing time the rest of this season.

There is no question this team has struggled over the last six weeks, but since the break, starting pitching hasn’t been the issue.

Evaluating Amed Rosario

According to Baseball-Reference.com, seven of the Cleveland Indians’ leaders in WAR (wins above replacement) are pitchers, including Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac, all of whom have missed considerable time this year due to injury.

The only position players who rank among the top ten are Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes, and Harold Ramirez. Bradley Zimmer ranks 11th, and it is very telling that Oscar Mercado, who has appeared in 16 games for Cleveland (44 plate appearances) is 12th.

What does that say about the guys who have spent most of the year on the big league roster?

One Tribesman who has received positive reviews is SS/CF Amed Rosario, who came over to Cleveland from the New York Mets in the Francisco Lindor transaction.

Rosario has stabilized the #2 spot in the batting order and has very good speed, and plays hard. That’s the good stuff.

Offensively, he’s basically a platoon player. Against lefties, he has a .287 batting average and a 788 OPS, getting 11 extra base hits in 108 at bats. But right-handed pitchers have held him to a .260 batting average and a 641 OPS, with just 10 extra base hits in 208 at bats.

He also doesn’t walk. We were concerned when he was acquired that he walked just four times all season for the Mets in 2020. He’s only drawn 18 free passes for the Indians this year, which is 5.3% of his times at the dish.

For contrast, that’s just slightly better than Harold Ramirez, described by many as a free swinger. Ramirez walks in 4.6% of his at bats. Ramirez also has just one less extra base hit than Amed Rosario, despite having over 100 less plate appearances.

And defensively, let’s just say A. Rosario is not going to be a finalist for the Gold Glove in the American League once the season ends.

Rosario stands out because most of the other people Terry Francona writes on a lineup card each day is pretty mediocre. That’s not to say he’s terrible, he has very good speed and is a very good baserunner, and he likes to hit the ball where it is pitched, which is a lost art in baseball these days.

But players with a 691 OPS are not good hitters. Rosario has a poor strikeout to walk ratio (67:18) and doesn’t hit for power, and we don’t mean home runs, but extra base hits. That’s why people look at on base percentage and slugging percentage. They are important statistics.

We remember many years ago when Tribe fans and media alike fawned over Felix Fermin, who handled balls hit at him very well, but didn’t have much range. When Fermin was sent to Seattle in the deal that brought Cleveland Omar Vizquel, we told people they would soon see what a great defensive shortstop really looked like.

Their frame of reference was watching players who were basically average. When you are used to that, above average looks much better.

And that’s Amed Rosario at the plate. When compared to the rest of the Tribe lineup, he stands out. In a solid lineup, he’s batting 8th or 9th. There’s nothing wrong with that, just don’t be fooled.

When It Comes To WAR, Tribe Every Day Players Rank Low

Since we are halfway through the Major League Baseball season, we thought it would be a good time to evaluate the performance of the roster of the local nine, the Cleveland Indians.

And if look at WAR (Wins Above Replacement), at least according to BaseballReference.com, it doesn’t paint a pretty picture.

According to their version of the formula, the Indians rank third from the bottom for non-pitchers, ahead of only the Orioles and Tigers. Even with all the injuries to the pitching staff, Cleveland pitchers rank 4th, behind only the Yankees, White Sox, and Blue Jays.

To break it down further for the guys who stand on the mound, Tribe starters rank 8th, which could have been expected considering the injuries to Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, and Aaron Civale, and the performance of the hurlers who replaced them.

However, the Indians’ bullpen ranks second in the AL, trailing just Boston.

As for the position players, it’s not a pretty picture. Since there are 15 American League teams, we will consider the top eight to be in the top half of the league. Using that standing, the Tribe has only two positions ranking in the top half, third base, of course manned by Jose Ramirez, the team’s best player and an All Star for the third time, and DH.

Franmil Reyes is the usual designated hitter, and his OPS (914) leads the team. And while Reyes was out, Terry Francona used a number of players at the spot to give them rest, one of whom was Ramirez.

The next highest ranking by position is rightfield, manned most often by the now injured Josh Naylor, followed by Harold Ramirez, who has an OPS of just under 800 (785).

Cleveland ranks in the bottom three at two positions, catcher and second base. We know the team values defense first and foremost at the catcher position, but having Roberto Perez out for two months didn’t help. And that said, we felt Austin Hedges did a marvelous job handling the pitchers, many of whom are getting their first big league experience.

Despite the good defense, Perez and Hedges have combined to hit .146 with 7 HR and 22 RBI. Those numbers are slightly better than having the pitcher hitting.

At second, Cesar Hernandez has put up surprising power numbers, he is one off his career high in HR, but his on base percentage is not what the brass is looking for and his defense hasn’t been what it was a year ago.

They are one spot above that at first base and leftfield. Bobby Bradley has helped the numbers at first, but that was after watching two months of a Jake Bauers/Yu Chang platoon at the position. The left-handed hitter has belted 8 homers and drawn 10 walks to date.

Eddie Rosario has been the primary guy in left, and although he’s been hitting better in the past month, his OPS is still under 700 (685). And let’s just say, he’s not going to win a Gold Glove anytime soon.

That would leave SS and surprisingly CF as the next best positions. Amed Rosario has stabilized short, but despite being hot over the last six weeks, he still has a 690 OPS, which is below average. The Tribe is still looking for someone to take charge in center.

It just shows there is still a lot of progress needed in the everyday lineup, and how the organization has worked around this to still have a winning record.

We don’t think WAR is the end all, be all statistic in baseball. But using it to compare the production of your team vs. others seems legitimate

Tribe Should Have Heeded Tito’s Adage

Terry Francona has always said when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more. It’s too bad his bosses didn’t heed his advise.

We know the Indians have traded away a lot of pitching over the last two and a half years, moving former Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber, and then Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger in deadline deals in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

The organization has done a tremendous job developing young pitchers. The current (if healthy) top of the rotation features three pitchers drafted in 2016: Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, and Aaron Civale. Going into spring training, the fourth and fifth spots appeared to belong to Cal Quantrill and Triston McKenzie.

We wrote at the time that outside of Bieber, none of those guys had more than 300 big league innings under their belt, and it would be wise to trade for or sign at least one experience arm.

Pitchers like Tijuan Walker (6-3, 2.38 ERA with the Mets), Jake Odorizzi (2-3, 4.08 ERA with Houston), and Tyler Anderson (3-8, 4.75 ERA with Pittsburgh) among others all were available shortly before spring training started. And none of them signed for huge amounts of money, always a consideration for the frugal Cleveland franchise.

Perhaps the organization got too caught up in the success of Bieber, Plesac, and Civale, all of whom seemed to have very little growing pains coming up to the bigs. Or more realistically, the ownership would not allow for the signing of a veteran hurler to add another proven arm.

Quantrill had command issues in spring training (he’s still going through them), so he went back to the bullpen, because of that and the fact that Logan Allen pitched extremely well in Arizona.

When the regular season started, Allen couldn’t keep the ball in the yard, and McKenzie, who opened as the 5th starter, couldn’t throw strikes.

They tried 24-year-old Sam Hentges, 24-year-old JC Mejia, and 25-year-old Eli Morgan, none of whom had any major league experience, and none were experiencing any great success in the minors.

When Bieber got the call in 2018, he was 6-1 with a 1.47 ERA in 13 starts at AAA and AA. Plesac came up in 2019 out of necessity due to injuries, but he was 4-2 with a 1.70 ERA in 10 starts in the high minors. Civale was 7-1, 2.43 in 13 starts in ’19 when he got the call.

By contrast, Hentges didn’t even pitch in the minors this year, nor last season due to the pandemic. His last minor league season was spent in Akron in ’19, where he went 2-11 with a 5.13 ERA.

Mejia had made two career starts above Class A in his life, both this year, before getting called up. He was 3-1 with an ERA just over four in Hi-A ball, in 2019, pitching just 33 innings.

Morgan made four starts this year at Columbus (4.67 ERA) and made 19 starts in AAA two years ago, with a 3.79 ERA.

We understand the organization didn’t think the latter trio was ready for the big league rotation now, but they left themselves no room for error.

And when Plesac went down on May23rd, the Tribe could’ve signed a free agent not currently in anyone’s organization and they would be ready now to help the team over this hurdle.

Rick Porcello, Cole Hamels, and Anibal Sanchez are just three pitchers still unattached, and another Homer Bailey, just signed with Oakland. Could any of those guys have helped? There is no way of knowing, but at the very least, they could have bought time for the youngsters.

They could’ve made a trade as well, although we would like to think Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff tried. It is well documented the organization has a ton of middle infielders regarded as good prospects. Move one of them for a starter who can soak up innings without taking the team out of a game early.

Perhaps the Indians can whether the current storm and stay in the race for the playoffs, and if they do and come up just short, they could point to these games pitched by men who weren’t ready to handle the job.

The point is the front office (including ownership) should have listened to their skipper. Heading into spring training, the pitching staff was very inexperienced. They pretended it wasn’t an issue.